Baby swan events
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
Most here have heard the term "black swan." It is sometimes used in the context of a major economic disruption. What is going on right now in oil I see as more of a "baby swan." Baby swan kind of events happen about every five years. Black swans are more like every 20 to 30 years or more. (Swans live for 10 to 20 years and tend to mate after reaching age 4 or 5, hence the tag baby swan).
Another footnote is that gold is now positive for calendar 2014. If it can hold the gain that will make 13 out of the last 14 years that gold is up. If it doesn't it will mean only the second down year for gold. If this turns into a major bear (like silver is confirmed for), five years or more of down market are typical.
Another footnote is that gold is now positive for calendar 2014. If it can hold the gain that will make 13 out of the last 14 years that gold is up. If it doesn't it will mean only the second down year for gold. If this turns into a major bear (like silver is confirmed for), five years or more of down market are typical.
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Nothing out of the ordinary with current conditions. We've become too accustomed to tranquillity.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Also, a baby swan to one economy may be seen as a black swan by another, i.e. Russia and oil prices.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Too soon to tell if this is the decisive straw but certainly disruptive for those on the supply side.
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Anybody know how much they owed at the time? We've got'em beat, I think.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Russia will probably default just as they did in the late 90s. Anybody remember that? Didnt think so. >>
If you go back to the gold and economic thread from 2004-2009 you'll find that the Asian Currency Crisis, LTCM failure/bailout, London selling off half their gold in 1999-2002 (Brown's Bottom) have been discussed numerous times around here. All a string of related events.
<< <i>Russia will probably default just as they did in the late 90s. Anybody remember that? Didnt think so. >>
More concerned about hedge funds that were heavy on the black gold.
What's the first thing you know?
peacockcoins
<< <i>Black gold. Texas Tea.
What's the first thing you know? >>
Hey, Buddy Ebsen was co founder of the Beverly Hills Coin Club!
<< <i>
<< <i>Black gold. Texas Tea.
What's the first thing you know? >>
Hey, Buddy Ebsen was co founder of the Beverly Hills Coin Club! >>
Thanks for playing but no , I'm afraid he was looking for "Ole Jed's a millionaire"
<< <i>Presumptious, aren't we? The whole Eastern Bloc was crumbling. Why wouldn't we remember it?
Anybody know how much they owed at the time? We've got'em beat, I think. >>
Point was, 15 years ago we went through the same thing, the stock market fell 20% and TV commentators panicked investors. Fast forward to today and ask yourself if any of that 6 month time period really mattered.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> Fast forward to today and ask yourself if any of that 6 month time period really mattered. >>
Ahhh the arrogance of buy and hold. In the last two months we have seen oil tank 50%. Going back a bit Gold is off over a third from peak and silver 2/3, yet the magical, mystical equities market is always a buy.
Record margins drop in half and bonds soar to 8% and you could see a 4500 Dow Jones. Not making that prediction (yet) but the situation is certainly plausible.
<< <i>
<< <i>Presumptious, aren't we? The whole Eastern Bloc was crumbling. Why wouldn't we remember it?
Anybody know how much they owed at the time? We've got'em beat, I think. >>
Point was, 15 years ago we went through the same thing, the stock market fell 20% and TV commentators panicked investors. Fast forward to today and ask yourself if any of that 6 month time period really mattered. >>
It mattered a lot to those who got their long positions ravaged and probably sold into considerable weakness. Did it matter to anyone that the stock market took a big dip into 2008-2009 before running into new all time highs?
Yes, it mattered a lot to those who sold out late 2008/early 2008 because they couldn't take the pain of a 30-50% haircut. A lot of those people never came back to the markets. It mattered to them. It also mattered to
traders who probably got wiped out due to their own arrogance and external market manipulations. But no concern to the 35-40 year buy and hold types who are still holding since 1976-1977. Come to think of it, the TV
announcers have panicked mining investors the past 3 years. Those guys are only down 75-95%. Does it matter to those shareholders? Nah....probably not. It'll come back stronger than ever.
The Eastern Block crumbling probably didn't affect those not directly invested into European economy/financial markets. Fwiw, I was out of the stock market by the 1998 LTCM/Asian currency crisis. I was working 60 hour
weeks and probably didn't feel the Asian currency crisis one bit. Oil and gas were cheap enough, coins were still cheap, I went on vacation 2X per year, didn't have a lot of excess cash at the time, etc. Sorry, it didn't affect me
t that time. I have no recollection of it. Probably the same way I have no recollection of the gas crunch in the late 1970's. I was in the military and pretty much living on naval bases and my ship. I drove so little at that time I
don't even recall once being in a line to get gas. Sorry, pretty much missed that one too. But, I do recall waiting in line in spring of 1977 to see Star Wars....one of the few trips off base I got.
Ahhh the arrogance of buy and hold
Youve been on these boards long enough to know long term to me is about 5 min......but I'll play along. Isnt long term the foundation for stacking?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Robosigning gold bar contracts? That could be an adult black swan >>
Just like cash in the bank isn't their's either...
And over.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Surely the gold is all there. They wouldn't go so far as to sell something that they don't even own? Over and over. And over.
And over. >>
It makes more sense to give a single gold bar multiple owners as the metal itself is fairly hard to duplicate. I have to think it's harder and more costly to mine an ounce of gold than it is for 1 BitCoin. Printing a $100 FRN or a key stroke for $100 digi-dollars is quite easy. I don't see the need at all to have to rehypothecate USDollars. There's an unlimited supply of them available and no real cost to "produce" them. The central banks have brought $13 TRILL in new currencies into the world over the past 6 years (more than all the world's above ground gold is worth). Another $13 TRILL in key strokes is no big deal. Sure, the gold is all there. That's why the central banks hide their their gold inventories, swaps, leases, and sales tighter than nuclear weapons' technology. At least the military knows to count each nuke as 1 item. The IMF requires the central banks to double count all swaps and leases.
Gold under $1200 is now in danger of closing 2014 lower than 2013. That's probably a good thing as you have to tally enough bad years to balance off the 12 record years. The most repetitive cycle in gold during the past 14 yrs has been the 21 month gold cycle. It's now in the 9th cycle since the first one began at the 1999 peak. The first 7 cycles were all peak to peak with 21 months appearing the most often. The 8th cycle was peak to trough. It would make sense that those 7 initial bullish cycles need at least 1 (or 2) more to balance things out. The next cycle is due to end Dec - April with March as the most likely target (Dec is month 18 since the last trough).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear