Coins

MrOrganic

I was wondering what your thoughts were on the coin market with the crazy price on precious metals or numismatic industry? Will the price of gold continue to drop?

Type2

Now this is just me crazy Type2. I think gold and other stuff ran up prices on a lot of coins and when the precious metals market comes down and it will and it will drag coins down with it. Then it will start all over on the next run up it's just the way it is. But the top is set for now on some coins like keys and they will stick some what and on the next run up it will do it all over again. Thats the up's and downs of life and the sooner any one can see this the faster they will make $$$ on it if they want to. But dont forget i'm crazy

Sullykerry52

The correlation between Brent crude futures and the Gold futures - choose three month prices is running about 85% using a six month observation indication. If Brent oil continues to fall it will likely take gold with it. As for coin prices, I think they tend to be sticky (i.e. they don't react immediately to changes in futures prices). In the end though supply and demand will determine the prices. Witness the U.S. Mint supply of silver dollars. Demand is high on the retail end. The propensity to raise prices for the newly minted silver 1 ounce coin is higher rather than lower despite silver futures at or around $15.35 as of Friday.

LochNESS

If you are collecting bullion issues like Pandas, then you will see some direct relationship between your coins and the precious metals market.

May be an opportunity to buy some gold panda coins for your stack. Even if it drops further, it will eventually go back up and this is a good price.

500Bay

I think the market for coins is going down (or at least is soft), not so much because of gold being weak, but because the economy is weak.
Once the economy picks up and people feel safe with disposable income, the collectible markets will go up again.

Zohar

500Bay - why was there such a run up for coins in 2008-2012 then when people lost their jobs and disposable income?

I think its the stock market run-up that grabbed people's disposable income. If people are playing "catch up" on their investment portfolios, that is where disposable income goes. In 2009 etc there was fear and coins/metals benefitted as did other alternatives to stocks such as real estate.

The economy does suck, BTW, in spite of the market run up. Zero interest rates benefit stock prices (company buys back shares with cheap debt etc.) not so much the consumer, wages or job recovery. The Fed is making sure we do not get too much of a stock market correction as they have identified correlation between a "numb and fear-less" consumer and a "green" market, even though the consumer doesn't necessarily benefit.

This means that until there is a correction, coins will remain flat and the middle tier will get squeezed as common coins take most of the beating. I find that it is tough to buy as it is to sell higher quality coins. Sellers are not selling unless forced to.

500Bay

Zohar,
I think the coin market peaked in 2008. Low pop coins and key dates fared better, but the real run up (in my experience) paused in 2008.
I looked at the PCGS Index and it backs up my experience: PCGS 3000
PCGS used to have other indexes, like Key Dates, but I can't find that anymore? I suspect that would have done better longer.
The market really seems to have softened lately, I suspect that means people are getting nervous again.
I agree about the stock market recovery since 2009 is mostly about people shifting savings there in the search for yield.
I think we are at a major stock market bubble point, but what do I know
Regular stock market valuations are all different now with world governments mostly all printing money and even getting involved in the stock market. I know I can't figure it out.

I agree with your conclusion.

500Bay

I should add, when I see nice ancients that I am interested in and do not have, I am still buying.
I do not do collect world coins, but I also collect US Coins.

LochNESS

Look to the end!

Coins as investments are generally better long-term. Some will have quick fads then die, or grow until a hoard is uncovered and then sink, but even those can gain after a generation or two of time has passed.

Zohar

I actually saw a huge step up for world coins in 2008-2012. If you look at Heritage/Stacks auctions they kept going up. This stopped once it was clear that the fed is the biggest investor in town and it was determined that metals are out of favor as the soothing message has been that there is no risk in the market and that recovery is in full swing. People are chasing yield hoping to make up what they lost in 2008 and coins are in the way for their disposable income dollars.

I agree that it has been softening lately, for me that has been the case since 2012. The frustration is that in spite of what one would think to be a buyer's market, there is not much quality to pick from, and if there is, you need to be ready to compete.

Type2

<< <i>I actually saw a huge step up for world coins in 2008-2012. If you look at Heritage/Stacks auctions they kept going up. This stopped once it was clear that the fed is the biggest investor in town and it was determined that metals are out of favor as the soothing message has been that there is no risk in the market and that recovery is in full swing. People are chasing yield hoping to make up what they lost in 2008 and coins are in the way for their disposable income dollars.

I agree that it has been softening lately, for me that has been the case since 2012. The frustration is that in spite of what one would think to be a buyer's market, there is not much quality to pick from, and if there is, you need to be ready to compete. >>

And they would have if they just bought more and not run or sell what they bought just buy when people are crazy that is the time to make $$$ when no one wants it you buy it low and when it get's good you sell. I bought a lot of stock in 08 when it was falling, AIG/BOA/"C"/ and it was cheep $1.50 a shear and AIG was like $12 I picked up Fannie mae ticker FNMA for .29 cents a shear i bought $2k worth it's over $14k today and it's still cheep at $2 bucks a shear buy it for your kids.

Sullykerry52

I am a novice collector who is very intrigued by the responses to this thread. I have retired from the money management and bond trading (emerging markets) venue recently. My interests in coins focus on Canada/Newfoundland, Ireland and Japan pre-WW II.

In an earlier post under the U.S. Coin Forum I asked about price discovery. What I find with non-U.S. (ex-Canada) is that price discovery is difficult even if you research past auction archives (Heritage, E-Bay, Stacks, TOREX or Canada Coin News). I am therefore not certain how you can claim prices are weak or strong. For example, Canada Coin News "Trends" or even Coins and Canada give quite divergent pricing for key dates. I keep past issues to watch price changes and don't see much movement. I also used to subscribe to U.S. Coin Grey Sheet and did not see much change between 2009 through 2012. So my question is: Are we speaking about anecdotes, market experience, or can we point to precise pricing changes. I just don't see listed price changes unless it is bullion.

The commentators who have replied to this thread are knowledgeable. As I have read your comments elsewhere. Where do I find good coin pricing sources?

Thank you, John

Zohar

I use coinarchives and Search Engine
Make sure you add the buyer's premium to the listed hammer prices.

Sullykerry52

Thank you. If there are any further recommendations from anyone, I would be grateful to learn about them.

LochNESS

"acsearch.info contains 2'207'924 entries from 2'193 auctions of 115 different auction companies and was visited 268'144 times yesterday."Those are impressive figures. Thanks for sharing the link Z!