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Are already encapsulated VAM's starting to suffer from the same fate as much of the Modern market, flooded and only a one way market??
Al H.
Al H.
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I don't necessarily think this is due to the market being flooded. I attribute it more to lack of interest.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars
Hoard the keys.
First, it should not need to be pointed out time after time, but some lunkheads don't seem to get the fundamental point.: ALL Morgan and Peace dollars are VAMs. Yes, most of those varieties are far from interesting and many need to be louped to attribute. With very few exceptions, that class of VAMs does not and should not bear a market premium, except perhaps a modest one when attributed and to the collector specifically interested in that variety for set completion. Simply by putting "VAM" on a holder tag doesn't mean it's worth big money.
There are some included in the "lists" (like the Top 100) that are among those too, even though they have more readily apparent features to the unaided eye. The 1887 VAM-12A (Gator Eye - with clash, the unclashed prooflike is considerable more difficult to locate) is the typical example. The 1891-CC VAM-3 (Spitting Eagle) is another. The only premium one could argue for such coins is the cost to put the attribution on the tags for those who "need" that detail. One would half to be pretty ignorant of the market to bother sending MS63 specimens into PCGS for attribution in such cases, as it's not worth the cost.
The maturation arose from the sheer number of VAMs that have been identified, attributed, and collected along with the obvious buying and selling. We understand now what are worth a bit more, from scarce and really interesting die varieties to those that are legitimately rare. Discounting them would be like discounting the variable rarity of branch mint populations for any given date. There were knuckleheads into the 20th Century who still guffawed at collecting "inferior" branch mint issues as significant. (In fact, many of the important sets sold at auction in our lifetimes before the internet were often composed of Philadelphia issues exclusively or primarily, and preferentially proofs.)
Premiums should remain intact and grow for some VAMs, just as they have for other important varieties in other series, like in the Large Cents and Bust Halves. The ultrarare 1878 8TF VAMs are not ever going to see common greysheet again, even the ones that need to be louped. The Red Book listed VAMs obviously will join them. There are others as well. We could probably develop a reasonable list of those with solid premium growth potential as well as a DMZ of liners that could join or not, depending upon the demand/supply, or the perception there of. Any VAM that PCGS recognizes in the top two grades they've bestowed upon them should always have competitive homes, and thus premiums.
What Morgan and Peace dollars do have in common with Moderns is their sheer overall numbers. The HUGE differences are that Morgans are not some grades 68-70 monolith AND, relevant to this discussion, they have interesting members -- some VAMs -- among the commoners. The varieties, like the PR69 Silver Eagles, that can be commoditized gradewise in numbers useful for the home shopping cable shows, are the ones that have justifiably seen their premium collapse, if not evaporate.
Another thing to bear in mind is that, from the collector side, VAM collectors largely like the thrill of the hunt, to cherrypick. But like those of us who had Whitman albums for Lincoln Cents as kids, you sometimes have to capitulate and buy some keys for completion. Those keys transcend the basic collector and will find their way into big money cabinets. Once it is well understood that, for instance, some 1878 VAM=14.XY varieties (and other VAMs) are FAR rarer than the generic 1893-S or even 1895 proof, they will get the attention and the top end demand. Rarity cannot be changed, just hidden for a time. The registry sets stimulate that demand too. You're looking at the legitimately rarest die varieties of the arguably most collected series (for Morgans, that is) on earth. It is just in the maturation, and there will be bigtime winners and bigtime speculative losers. The Gator Eyes are like the 95, or even 72, DDO cents as their populations and understanding matured.
interest that lasted for a number of years. Now it comes down to supply and demand and the demand has fallen off.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
The change has been in some promoted varieties that just are not scarce. And in Jeff's defense on the Top 100, some of those were known then (in '89 or so) to be common, but a mix was in that set to make it approachable to new collectors. Hell, the spitting eagle is far and away the easiest '91-CC to locate.
Sometimes when you stir the pot, you get to stew in it yourself.
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.americanlegacycoins.com
<< <i>I don't know if I'd compare them to moderns, but the VAM market definitely isn't what it used to be.
I don't necessarily think this is due to the market being flooded. I attribute it more to lack of interest. >>
And what better way for folks to "lose interest" than seeing them all over the place which doesn't really instill a feeling of "rarity" now does it?
Comparing these to the modern coin market is exactly correct as too much of anything quickly loses its luster.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>I would agree with alefzero's take on the VAM situation. I would add that I witnessed similar happenings in the Jefferson and Lincoln series. When PCGS started attributing varieties there was a spike in
interest that lasted for a number of years. Now it comes down to supply and demand and the demand has fallen off. >>
Not dead. Sales from earlier this year:
The 14.19 in PCGS AU58? Over $38,000 for a $75 dollar coin. The pre-sale estimate was in the 20's.
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What did the last Micro O in PCGS MS64 go for? $50,000 smackers.
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<< <i>
<< <i>I would agree with alefzero's take on the VAM situation. I would add that I witnessed similar happenings in the Jefferson and Lincoln series. When PCGS started attributing varieties there was a spike in
interest that lasted for a number of years. Now it comes down to supply and demand and the demand has fallen off. >>
Not dead. Sales from earlier this year:
The 14.19 in PCGS AU58? Over $38,000 for a $75 dollar coin. The pre-sale estimate was in the 20's.
Heritage Link
What did the last Micro O in PCGS MS64 go for? $50,000 smackers.
Heritage Link >>
That $38,000 VAM was sold to a friend of mine who just happened to leave the brick and mortar shop only 10 minutes ago
<< <i>The change has been in some promoted varieties that just are not scarce. And in Jeff's defense on the Top 100, some of those were known then (in '89 or so) to be common, but a mix was in that set to make it approachable to new collectors. Hell, the spitting eagle is far and away the easiest '91-CC to locate. >>
I'd contend that the 91-CC VAM 3 is the easiest Morgan dollar variety to locate for the entire series. If someone were to bet me lunch at a decent sized show that I couldn't find a specific VAM of my choosing on the bourse floor within 10 minutes, I'd pick 1891-CC VAM 3 and probably win every time. This variety and other common ones on the popular lists are often referred to as "Gateway VAMs".
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars
<< <i>atta boy, zero, throw an insult in there to help make new friends here.
Take it easy. The post was a masterpiece!