Oh yes and the prices will continue to drop.

Bcsican

We all have our speciality coins mine are Kennedys, I still like a little of everything though. But I watch with great interest on the pops rising and the prices falling on these Kennedys. They are hot as of now, but be carefull on when you decide to buy.

Latest example and more to follow, the 1998 P Kennedy had a pop of 13 on 4/10/02 and a price tag of 350+. Now as of 5/18/02 it has a pop of 24 and a price of 150.00. All in a little over a month, pops rise prices fall.

The Kennedy series is about to see a sharp incline in pops in many grades, and a hugh decline in prices, be carefull on the price you pay and when you buy......

braddick

I think what you'll see are Dealers who don't know this series chasing after the MS67s with their raw Kennedy inventory. They're in for a rude awakening as what they will be returned are MS66s. Unless PCGS lightens up with the grading (and, I don't think they will) MS67s are tough to make, no matter what.
There may be a correction or two but the general swing will be on the rise.

wondercoin

"Now as of 5/18/02 it has a pop of 24 and a price of 150.00."

Matt: Interesting thread. And, as you know, I do not try to predict prices, one way or the other, on these threads. But, let's play "devil's advocate". A coin like a 1999 Kennedy in MS67 with a pop in the hundreds still commands around $35. So, a pop 24/0 at $150 still is a coin I would personally want for my inventory for my websites. How low could it really go in the next year? Sure, it could skyrocket to a pop 50 or so in the next year, but a 2000(p) Sac in PCGS-MS68 routinely trades above $100/coin and look what the pop is on that coin. Why should a Kennedy Half in PCGS-MS67 with a pop 24/0 not be a $150 coin (or even a $250 coin) in this market?

A step further, a board member just told me that he was offered $600 (sounds very high to me but I believe him) for a 1958(d) Lincoln Cent in PCGS-MS67RD with a pop not too far off from that Kennedy you mention as well as a mintage of 800,000,000 (compared to the Kennedy Half mintage of 15,600,000). You could probably find an original mint sewn bag of those 1958(d) Lincolns with as much difficulty (or ease depending upon your view) imho as trying to locate one of the 1998(p) Kennedy original bags. Now, my question is: What would you rather own: The 1958(d) Lincoln Cent in PCGS-MS67RD or (4) 1998(p) Kennedys in PCGS-MS67? Wondercoin

keithdagen

Kennedys are very undervalued compared to other modern series with similar populations. Any downward swing, in my opinion, will be temporary. The market will underprice the pieces as more 66's are found, but the number of 67's is not going to skyrocket, except for a few dates. I think that an astute collector could use the downward trend to pick up bargains in dates that have traditionally been scarce in high grade, and will continue to be scarce.

Exploding populations haven't hurt the Ike market too much.

supercoin

Well, I'm not sure Ike populations have "exploded", I don't recall a similar pop increase in highest-grade Ikes in any 2-month period.

Clearly coins like that Kennedy that are very recently minted have much more risk for big pop increases than those where people have been searching and submitting for many years.

Another factor to keep in mind is that there are a lot more Kennedy's in the series than Ikes, SBAs, and Sacagaweas put together. That may limit how much a collector can spend per coin when putting together a complete set.

Of course that theory doesn't wash with Lincoln prices, but that's kinda sorta a classic set, and those guys are used to spending more.

Still, even if I knew exactly what that coin's population was going to be in one year, I wouldn't know whether to buy or sell. It's all about demand, and when it comes to trying to predict human nature, well, you could make a ton of money in a lot of areas if you could predict that sort of thing.

merz2

Most of us realize,that as the population goes up the value comes down.Supply and demand.That is just like the 1937 PR64 CAM Lincoln that sold on Ebay for over a $1,000 with the Buy It Now option.In case anyone is interested it was auction # 1353599302.I have my 1937 PR66 CAM Lincoln for sale and no one wants to pay what I'm asking.Go figure.

supercoin

True, if demand remains the same, which is a big if.

Ikes are a series where populations have steadily increased in most dates, yet prices have risen as well. Demand is de-man, man.

wondercoin

Demand is the key. That fully explains why a 1958(d) Lincoln Cent with a mintage of 800,000,000 can possibly command upwards of $600 even today. LINCOLNS ARE AN INCREDIBLE SERIES WITH ENORMOUS DEMAND.

MS Kennedys are growing in demand for sure and I think they have a great future as a series. But, that demand will likely be met with massive submissions. How it all plays out is anyones guess. Matt esentially believes supply will outstrip demand and prices will fall (the theme of this thread). Keith appears to believe the demand/supply balance may shift such that demand outstrips future supply (hence, now being a good opportunity to pick up some coins). I personally have chosen to collect Wash. Quarters, so I am indifferent to the issue from a collector standpoint, but I personally continue to buy (and sell) MS Kennedys whenever I can. I am clearly not "afraid" to own them at the levels they are offered to me. Either way, "YOU GOTTA LOVE THIS GAME" Wondercoin.

Bcsican

I love these Kennedys even if they do rise dramiticaly in the pops and I honestly belive they will. But I think it will be confined to certain years but growth over all. I have watched for about 5 years on the Kennedy series alone. It was of interest to me then and even more so now. There are many years that have extreme chances to rise heavily in the pops mostly the newer years minted.

In the Kennedy series alone there are many years with less than 100 coins graded in total coins MS 60- 68. I sent in an 87 D that I picked out of a MS set and it came back MS 67, I thought it would.

I have written other threads on the pops rising in this series and it is slowly climbing to the point I feel the supply will out strech the demand for many years. With a coin minted in the millions its only a matter of time before the MS 67 Kennedy in 1998 P is over a 100 coins and then some. Today its a 150.00 dollar coin next year it will be 25.00.

Many years will follow, belive me I dont want this to happen but I do think it will. and yes there will still be years with low pops, just not as many....

if a coin minted in the millions ( 98 P ) and less than 100 have been submitted it wont take long to have that a common coin in MS 67, and if PCGS loosens up MS 68s will be like the 2001 P thirteen more in MS 68 in less than a month, more waiting to be graded....I dont like it but these are facts collected in less than two months...

IrishMike

Last bank I worked at had bags and bags of JFK's gathering dust in the vault, I bet this is the case at other banks too. No one wants them but collectors. Remember how the 1903-O Morgan went from being one of the toughest Morgans and most expensive to where it is today. Not saying that is going to happen with JFK's, but they have no melt value, so the mint and Feds don't want them back.

RJB

Matt, I truly hope that you are right and prices fall. I will be the first to start another collection of Kennedy halves in high MS. I have to admit that on the greed side I was happy for the prices that my coins just realized on Ebay, but I think that for now I would rather spend my $1,000 on a nice high grade 1955 DDO Lincoln that I know will hold its value rather then some low pop high grade Kennedy that at present truly is a gamble. Maybe it is just me, but it appears that the folks that argue against your reasoning are the ones that are selling these same coins. Of course it would be counter productive for them to say that the pops will rise and the prices will drop.

Bear

I agree with the consensus on MS Kennedy Half Dollars , that is why I decided to concentrate on the proof coins. While there may be a potential hoard of unsearched mint coins somewhere, pretty much all of the proof sets have been looked over many times. In any event ,both MS & Proof Kennedy Half Dollars are great coins ,of a man I will always admire. Regards Bear

braddick

Matt- you mention how "100 coins have been submitted...". But, how many thousands had to be searched to cherry this 100? And, out of that 100, how many, even with the goal in mind, made MS67?
No- this is where we part ways on this thread. I believe the pops in MS66 will explode but the MS67's- although they will rise- will not be able, in the long run, to keep up with demand.
Collectors of this series will insist on "right side pop report" coins and won't settle for less. It is why I also believe the spread between MS66's and MS67's will grow to even more than the 10X (on some coins) that is built in now.

-In the future, for every MS67 Kennedy made there will be many more new Kennedy Collectors wanting this coin.

cladking

Obviously the supply is fixed, and obviously it is higher than the pop reports. If the
price were to drop then there would be a drop-off in submissions and the steadily increasing demand would soon catch up with "excess supply". The demand for these
coins, and other moderns, is growing at an geometric rate. Rather than adding a fixed
number of new collectors on a regular basis there is a doubling of the number of collect-
ors on a regular basis! How long this will continue is anyones guess, but with 117
million states quarters collectors it could go on for many years! Simultaneously the
number of unchecked rolls and sets is decreasing at a geometric rate. The largest sub-
mission rate should occur within about 24 months then drop precipitously.

It can be very difficult to get a good idea of the availability of a new coin until it has been
out for a few years. It just takes time to see the number of coins required, and to see
the coins from various sources. Price adjustments amoung late-date coins is not so im-
portant as changes in the more studied issues.

clackamas

Try finding a 58-D Lincoln in MS-67 regardless of what the Pops say. PCGS is super tough on this year and even though there are quite a few rolls of 58-D's around finding a 67 is REALLY hard. I have been looking for the past few months for a 66 in original rolls and can't get one much less a 67.

DHeath

No doubt pop's will rise, but frankly I believe this series will be the one most collected by the new collectors entering the hobby. They are easily accessable raw and are still relatively inexpensive. There will be periods when the prices for key dates outrun supply, but demand will continue to grow faster than supply. Just like the proofs, some dates will be very difficult and quite valuable. The 32-D Washington isn't rare, it's only rare relative to the other early Washingtons. Try one of those in MS67. How about building a Franklin collection in MS67? Heh, try MS66! I don't believe $1000 per coin in MS67 is possible in the near future, but could some dates stabilize around $300+, certainly. The least common, say the pre-74 coins, could easily stabilize at a higher price.

halfnut

IMHO its all about supply and demand, I have been keeping my eyes and ears open to the 90 and 91 MS 66 kennedys and have been shocked at some of the prices the last month but after checking today this is what i have found PCGS 90 D MS66 Kennedys on E-bay - May 5 491.00 May 12 152.00 May 19 76.00 not sure what the next one will bring but what I see is that there was a few bidders that wanted these and now that they have one the price has returned to a lower bid . I'm hoping they continual to slide ( I still need one). I did pick up my MS66 98 D for less then 20.00 dollors last night and this had been a coin that just a few months ago was much higher. Supply and demand



Dan

U S Navy

WITH PRIDE

Bo

In the next few years I think there will be a shake out as supplies of available grades of Kennedys stabalize. Where that will leave the prices at relative to today I'm unsure, but I still think they will be a long term good buy. No matter how high a number were minted or graded out, there will still be only a very limited number of the very best coins. And I'm not talking mathematical numbers like x pop or slab MSxx, but simply top coins. The real question I think will be how the second tier coins fare over the long term. I think that will be a better indicator of the health of the industry and popularity of the series.

Bo

cladking

Indeed!

Bcsican

Pat I hope your right and Im wrong I dont relish the thought of one of my favorite series pops rising so fast or so many. I do belive that MS 67s are still hard to come by in these coins, but i`ve watched many years in a short period of time, ( two months), pops double,or some years as the 1971 D keep climbing with more than 20 new coins getting the MS 67 grade.

On april 14 the 1971 D was a pop of 92 as of May 18th its now 94 and on april 8th it was 71. Maybe this series the supply wont exceed the demand, but I have to agree and disagree, I do feel the newer minted coins 94 on, the pops will steadily rise in MS 67 coins, even with PCGS tough standards,

Heres an interesting idea, and I hope this will never happen, but I also learned to never say never, If PCGS ever loosens their grading standards just a touch, many of those nice MS 67s could be the new MS 68s.

Just for example for MS 67s being out there, on april 14 there were 101 MS 67 coins graded in the 1996 P, now there are a month later 105, only four coins but at this rate this would be almost 50 per year and the quality which is so much better of the new coins this is number is low. There are still millions of 1990s on thru present dates coins still in vaults that have never been searched there has to be some MS 67s.

I know how hard it is to get this loftly grade, but they seem to be getting found more and more lately. All in all there havent been very many sent in for us to know but its been something I always think about of how many are out there, total graded MS 67 when more coins are sent in.

Bo your point is very valid and on the money so to speak.....