after d. jeter retires, are there any candidates to succeed

olb31

him into the hall of fame? very slim pickings right as I see it. I am talking about current players in the league.

Adrian Beltre
Robinson Cano - way down the line
Albert Pujols
Alex????
David Ortiz
Alfonso Soriano??? (doubtful)
Ichiro


I know there could be a few more, but in the next 8 years these players would probably be retired by then. I can't really think of any other candidates. Let's hear what you think.

dtkk49a

Ichiro for sure. Not sure about anyone else. Maybe the steroid crowd sometime down the road.

VitoCo1972

Agree that the steroid era makes it strange. Ichiro is a mortal lock. Also, the 4 year run that Clayton Kershaw is on now (which will likely include 3 CY's and an MVP) would mean he'd have to go under .500 for the rest of his career to not get there or get a seriously freak injury.

miwlvrn

+1 on Ichiro for sure.

Cabrera certainly deserves some consideration.

olb31

<< <i>+1 on Ichiro for sure.

Cabrera certainly deserves some consideration. >>



Miguel for sure, forgot about him.

TNP777

Adrian Beltre - maybe
Robinson Cano - I don't think so
Albert Pujols - 100% yes
Alex Rodriguez - I think eventually he has to get in
David Ortiz - I suppose, but part of me can't get over the fact that all he does is bat
Alfonso Soriano - nope
Ichiro - 100% yes
Miguel Cabrera - yes, but I don't think he'll be a first ballot

How about...
Paul Konerko - maybe, but probably not
Adam Dunn - see Kingman, Dave
Justin Verlander
Joe Mauer - probably not
Mike Trout - like his career trajectory so far. Early indications are promising
Clayton Kershaw - see Trout, Mike
Buster Posey - see above
Felix Hernandez - yes
David Wright - yes
Bryce Harper - wait, he's not already in?
Joey Votto - maybe, but probably not
Andrew McCutcheon - too early to tell, but a possibility
Yadier Molina - yes
Adam Wainwright - possilbly
Troy Tulowitzki - possibly
Adrian Gonzalez - possibly
Yasiel Puig - see Harper, Bryce
Tim Lincecum - will get a few votes, but unfortunately his body didn't hold up. Dude was a lock at one point.

miwlvrn

As long as Miguel Cabrera doesn't fall into any off-field trouble, I think he'd make it in on the first ballot, but it would be closer to the cutoff and not a unanimous (should have been unanimous anyway) ballot like Maddux.

Verlander has a great shot at HOF but will have to turn it around after this disappointing season.

LarkinCollector

<< <i>Adrian Beltre - maybe
Robinson Cano - I don't think so
Albert Pujols - 100% yes
Alex Rodriguez - I think eventually he has to get in
David Ortiz - I suppose, but part of me can't get over the fact that all he does is bat
Alfonso Soriano - nope
Ichiro - 100% yes
Miguel Cabrera - yes, but I don't think he'll be a first ballot

How about...
Paul Konerko - maybe, but probably not
Adam Dunn - see Kingman, Dave
Justin Verlander
Joe Mauer - probably not
Mike Trout - like his career trajectory so far. Early indications are promising
Clayton Kershaw - see Trout, Mike
Buster Posey - see above
Felix Hernandez - yes
David Wright - yes
Bryce Harper - wait, he's not already in?
Joey Votto - maybe, but probably not
Andrew McCutcheon - too early to tell, but a possibility
Yadier Molina - yes
Adam Wainwright - possilbly
Troy Tulowitzki - possibly
Adrian Gonzalez - possibly
Yasiel Puig - see Harper, Bryce
Tim Lincecum - will get a few votes, but unfortunately his body didn't hold up. Dude was a lock at one point. >>


+0.95

I hope you're wrong on the Dunn/Kingman comparison, but have to admit it's pretty likely. Arod's pretty iffy in the current climate, but by the time his balloting comes around, hopefully they've sorted out the steroid voting.

PSASAP

Was just looking at the career numbers of King Felix. For a guy nicknamed King, he sure has the numbers of a commoner. Besides 2005 and this year, his won-loss record has been very average. As unfair as it is to judge a pitcher by that stat, won-loss record is the traditional way starting pitchers make it to Cooperstown. Miguel Cabrera could retire today, and after 12 seasons, has already put up hall of fame numbers, .320 ba with power, 2 MVP's in a row, Triple Crown and a WS ring with the Marlins.

RyanAdmirer

<< <i>Adrian Beltre - maybe
Robinson Cano - I don't think so
Albert Pujols - 100% yes
Alex Rodriguez - I think eventually he has to get in
David Ortiz - I suppose, but part of me can't get over the fact that all he does is bat
Alfonso Soriano - nope
Ichiro - 100% yes
Miguel Cabrera - yes, but I don't think he'll be a first ballot

How about...
Paul Konerko - maybe, but probably not
Adam Dunn - see Kingman, Dave
Justin Verlander
Joe Mauer - probably not
Mike Trout - like his career trajectory so far. Early indications are promising
Clayton Kershaw - see Trout, Mike
Buster Posey - see above
Felix Hernandez - yes
David Wright - yes
Bryce Harper - wait, he's not already in?
Joey Votto - maybe, but probably not
Andrew McCutcheon - too early to tell, but a possibility
Yadier Molina - yes
Adam Wainwright - possilbly
Troy Tulowitzki - possibly
Adrian Gonzalez - possibly
Yasiel Puig - see Harper, Bryce
Tim Lincecum - will get a few votes, but unfortunately his body didn't hold up. Dude was a lock at one point. >>



I'm with ya on just about all of these with the exception of Cano. Barring major injury I think he's a lock. His HR have slowed, but the hits have not. If his body holds up 3500 hits is not out of the realm of possibilities.

DanBessette

The only sure things: Miggy, Ichiro, Pujols, Yadier.

As for the maybes, I haven't seen anybody mention Sabathia.

edited to add: Kershaw getting close. 1 or 2 more years like this and it won't matter what happens next. His prime will be sufficiently long and great, like Koufax and Pedro.

rtimmer

If Mauer wins first base gold glove or hits 3,000 he gets in for sure. He probably needs a 22 year career to get there.

grote15

<< <i>Was just looking at the career numbers of King Felix. For a guy nicknamed King, he sure has the numbers of a commoner. Besides 2005 and this year, his won-loss record has been very average. As unfair as it is to judge a pitcher by that stat, won-loss record is the traditional way starting pitchers make it to Cooperstown. Miguel Cabrera could retire today, and after 12 seasons, has already put up hall of fame numbers, .320 ba with power, 2 MVP's in a row, Triple Crown and a WS ring with the Marlins. >>



W-L record is team dependent and the single most misleading stat by which to judge the ability of a pitcher. ERA, WHIP, ERA+, K to BB are all infintely better metrics by which to truly evaluate a pitcher.

TNP777

I considered Mauer. Unfortunately, he hasn't been relevant for a few years now.

I don't think 3000 hits over a 22 year career gets you in these days, either. That's an average of 136 hits. While that's certainly not bad, that's also not a number that jumps off the page and screams Hall of Fame. I don't know, maybe I'm just biased against compilers.

TheMick6

Id like to hear the argument as to why Molina is a lock? A few years of being the best all around catcher in the league doesnt make him a lock plus hes starting to wear down a bit. He started very slow with the bat. If anyones numbers look pedestrian its his. I understand the defensive argument but i can think of two catchers off the top of my head that warrent consideration if he gets it. Munson and Simmons

mattinglymint23

<< <i>W-L record is team dependent and the single most misleading stat by which to judge the ability of a pitcher. ERA, WHIP, ERA+, K to BB are all infintely better metrics by which to truly evaluate a pitcher. >>



+1

TheMick6

Forgot about Freehan to

DanBessette

<< <i>Id like to hear the argument as to why Molina is a lock? A few years of being the best all around catcher in the league doesnt make him a lock plus hes starting to wear down a bit. He started very slow with the bat. If anyones numbers look pedestrian its his. I understand the defensive argument but i can think of two catchers off the top of my head that warrent consideration if he gets it. Munson and Simmons >>



Yadi is the Ozzie Smith of catchers. Nice enough offensive numbers to go along with being arguably the greatest of all time defensively at a premium position. I'm not a Cardinals fan, it just seems obvious to me.

TheMick6

Im not arguing that hes not a great defensive catcher but arguably the best of all time? Id think Bench and Pudge ( Ivan not Carlton ) would have something to say about that.

akuracy503

<< <i>Was just looking at the career numbers of King Felix. For a guy nicknamed King, he sure has the numbers of a commoner. Besides 2005 and this year, his won-loss record has been very average. As unfair as it is to judge a pitcher by that stat, won-loss record is the traditional way starting pitchers make it to Cooperstown. Miguel Cabrera could retire today, and after 12 seasons, has already put up hall of fame numbers, .320 ba with power, 2 MVP's in a row, Triple Crown and a WS ring with the Marlins. >>



I sure hope this isnt the case for the King because the last several years he has had the worst supporting runs of any teams in the history of the game.
But Felix Hernandez in the new era of WHIP stats would be hard to deny his pitching dominance over the opposition - regardless of what his own team does offensively.

If Kershaw is talked about as one of the great pitchers of this era then Felix Hernandez belongs there and then some - consider Felix pitches to DH's batters vs pitcher batters of the NL.

I foresee a long career for Felix (Pitching style) and a first ballot HOF.

PSASAP

W-L record is team dependent and the single most misleading stat by which to judge the ability of a pitcher. ERA, WHIP, ERA+, K to BB are all infintely better metrics by which to truly evaluate a pitcher.

My answer to that would be Steve Carlton of the 1972 Philadelphia Phillies.

grote15

<< <i>W-L record is team dependent and the single most misleading stat by which to judge the ability of a pitcher. ERA, WHIP, ERA+, K to BB are all infintely better metrics by which to truly evaluate a pitcher.

My answer to that would be Steve Carlton of the 1972 Philadelphia Phillies. >>



Carlton's 1972 season was arguably one of the greatest in the history of baseball. That still doesn't mean that W-L record is any more valid a metric to evaluate the greatness of a pitcher.

BTW, his ERA that season was under 2, his WHIP was under 1, and his ERA+ 182, by far the greatest season in his career, regardless of his record.

PSASAP

Well, if your argument is that a starting pitcher's success or failure is dependent on his team, that is the perfect counter argument, because the Phils, as you well know, only won 59 games that year. Furthermore, if the hall were to follow your line of reasoning, would you propose that they reevaluate the careers of pitchers such as Ned Garver, pitchers who had the rotten luck of pitching for inferior teams, and nominate them for the hall, based on their WAR?

Tabe

<< <i>W-L record is team dependent and the single most misleading stat by which to judge the ability of a pitcher. ERA, WHIP, ERA+, K to BB are all infintely better metrics by which to truly evaluate a pitcher.

My answer to that would be Steve Carlton of the 1972 Philadelphia Phillies. >>


You're seriously going to use a 1-season aberration like Carlton in 72 against Felix? It's not exactly Felix's fault that he's been stuck with rosters full of guys that can't hit. Two years ago, Seattle had one of the worst offensive teams of all-time. I went to a game in July or August of that year, I forget which, and they were hitting something like .195 at home as a team - the lowest number ever. That year, their starting lineup consisted of 9 guys whose highest batting average was .261, 7 of whom had OPS+ under 100. None of that is Felix's fault.

In 2013, Felix had 7 no decisions in games where he gave up 1 or 2 ERs. He had exactly one game where he got a win allowing 4 runs.

In other words, his mediocre W/L record ain't his fault.

mattyc_collection

<< <i>

<< <i>Adrian Beltre - maybe
Robinson Cano - I don't think so
Albert Pujols - 100% yes
Alex Rodriguez - I think eventually he has to get in
David Ortiz - I suppose, but part of me can't get over the fact that all he does is bat
Alfonso Soriano - nope
Ichiro - 100% yes
Miguel Cabrera - yes, but I don't think he'll be a first ballot

How about...
Paul Konerko - maybe, but probably not
Adam Dunn - see Kingman, Dave
Justin Verlander
Joe Mauer - probably not
Mike Trout - like his career trajectory so far. Early indications are promising
Clayton Kershaw - see Trout, Mike
Buster Posey - see above
Felix Hernandez - yes
David Wright - yes
Bryce Harper - wait, he's not already in?
Joey Votto - maybe, but probably not
Andrew McCutcheon - too early to tell, but a possibility
Yadier Molina - yes
Adam Wainwright - possilbly
Troy Tulowitzki - possibly
Adrian Gonzalez - possibly
Yasiel Puig - see Harper, Bryce
Tim Lincecum - will get a few votes, but unfortunately his body didn't hold up. Dude was a lock at one point. >>



I'm with ya on just about all of these with the exception of Cano. Barring major injury I think he's a lock. His HR have slowed, but the hits have not. If his body holds up 3500 hits is not out of the realm of possibilities. >>



I agree about Cano having a legit shot-- the guy's hitting splits are especially amazing this year.

Tabe

<< <i>Miguel Cabrera - yes, but I don't think he'll be a first ballot >>


Cabrera is a no-doubt, without a question, no brainer, first ballot HOFer. Back-to-back MVPs, a Triple Crown, a super-high profile, 11 straight 100-RBI seasons, career .320 BA...

If he's NOT a first ballot HOFer, I'd love to know what the standard is for being one.

PSASAP

In other words, his mediocre W/L record ain't his fault.

You're absolutely right, it ain't his fault. It's also not Tony Conigliaro's fault that he got beaned by Jack Hamilton, thus derailing a career that seemed destined for the HOF. It's also not Vida Blue's fault that he had a cheapskate owner in Charlie Finley, and that his holdout, for what amounted to $15,000, torpedoed his 1972 season, and later would suffer more indignities at the hands of Charlie O. The game is littered with stories of what might have been, or what should have been. Thankfully, it is not the job of the Hall of Fame voters to parse out sympathy for players who would have been in or should be in if only.

DanBessette

grote15

PSA, I understand your position; I just believe it is misguided. It has nothing to do with sympathy or what if scenarios. We have all the metrics we need to evaluate a pitcher"s ability. And W-L record is unquestionably behind ERA, WHIP and ERA+ when it comes to making that analysis, for the same reasons OBP% and OPS and OPS+ trump simple BA for hitters.

PSASAP

Hi Grote, I believe the question was, of the current players, who is a likely candidate for the Hall of Fame? The question was very specific, and the criteria for entering the Hall of Fame is well established. If King Felix doesn't hit the milestone numbers that ensure a pitcher's election into the hall, then it will take a sea change for the voters to elect him. And right now, he's far from being a shoo-in. That's all I'm saying.

mlbfan2

<< <i>I agree about Cano having a legit shot-- the guy's hitting splits are especially amazing this year. >>



Which ones? Just wondering. I looked at them and they look pretty ordinary to me.