tulipmania
esebille
Posts: 189
Tulip mania or tulipomania (Dutch names include: tulpenmanie, tulpomanie, tulpenwoede, tulpengekte and bollengekte) was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for bulbs of the recently introduced tulip reached extraordinarily high levels and then suddenly collapsed.[2]
At the peak of tulip mania, in March 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman. It is generally considered the first recorded speculative bubble (or economic bubble),[3] although some researchers have noted that the Kipper- und Wipperzeit episode in 1619–22, a Europe-wide chain of debasement of the metal content of coins to fund warfare, featured mania-like similarities to a bubble.[4] The term "tulip mania" is now often used metaphorically to refer to any large economic bubble (when asset prices deviate from intrinsic values).[5]
The 1637 event was popularized in 1841 by the book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, written by British journalist Charles Mackay. According to Mackay, at one point 12 acres (5 ha) of land were offered for a Semper Augustus bulb.[6] Mackay claims that many such investors were ruined by the fall in prices, and Dutch commerce suffered a severe shock. Although Mackay's book is a classic that is widely reprinted today, his account is contested. Many modern scholars feel that the mania was not as extraordinary as Mackay described and argue that not enough price data are available to prove that a tulip bulb bubble actually occurred.[7][8]
Research on the tulip mania is difficult because of the limited economic data from the 1630s -- much of which come from biased and anti-speculative sources.[9][10] Some modern economists have proposed rational explanations, rather than a speculative mania, for the rise and fall in prices. For example, other flowers, such as the hyacinth, also had high initial prices at the time of their introduction, which immediately fell. The high asset prices may also have been driven by expectations of a parliamentary decree that contracts could be voided for a small cost—thus lowering the risk to buyers.
At the peak of tulip mania, in March 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman. It is generally considered the first recorded speculative bubble (or economic bubble),[3] although some researchers have noted that the Kipper- und Wipperzeit episode in 1619–22, a Europe-wide chain of debasement of the metal content of coins to fund warfare, featured mania-like similarities to a bubble.[4] The term "tulip mania" is now often used metaphorically to refer to any large economic bubble (when asset prices deviate from intrinsic values).[5]
The 1637 event was popularized in 1841 by the book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, written by British journalist Charles Mackay. According to Mackay, at one point 12 acres (5 ha) of land were offered for a Semper Augustus bulb.[6] Mackay claims that many such investors were ruined by the fall in prices, and Dutch commerce suffered a severe shock. Although Mackay's book is a classic that is widely reprinted today, his account is contested. Many modern scholars feel that the mania was not as extraordinary as Mackay described and argue that not enough price data are available to prove that a tulip bulb bubble actually occurred.[7][8]
Research on the tulip mania is difficult because of the limited economic data from the 1630s -- much of which come from biased and anti-speculative sources.[9][10] Some modern economists have proposed rational explanations, rather than a speculative mania, for the rise and fall in prices. For example, other flowers, such as the hyacinth, also had high initial prices at the time of their introduction, which immediately fell. The high asset prices may also have been driven by expectations of a parliamentary decree that contracts could be voided for a small cost—thus lowering the risk to buyers.
0
Comments
1994 Pro Line Live
TheDallasCowboyBackfieldProject
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>This is the second time I've seen this reference today--are you sure you didn't mean to post this on the Kennedy gold commemorative thread over on the PCGS forum? That's where I saw it first, lol.. >>
Too funny. That's a pretty good oversight lol.
1994 Pro Line Live
TheDallasCowboyBackfieldProject
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
<< <i>This is the second time I've seen this reference today--are you sure you didn't mean to post this on the Kennedy gold commemorative thread over on the PCGS forum? That's where I saw it first, lol.. >>
I assume that he was insinuating that it has relevance to today's baseball card market.
<< <i>
<< <i>This is the second time I've seen this reference today--are you sure you didn't mean to post this on the Kennedy gold commemorative thread over on the PCGS forum? That's where I saw it first, lol.. >>
I assume that he was insinuating that it has relevance to today's baseball card market. >>
My post was conjecture, lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>This is the second time I've seen this reference today--are you sure you didn't mean to post this on the Kennedy gold commemorative thread over on the PCGS forum? That's where I saw it first, lol.. >>
I assume that he was insinuating that it has relevance to today's baseball card market. >>
My post was conjecture, lol.. >>
As long as it wasn't "SPECULATION", then it's ok. Speculation can be ruinous! Just ask all those people who got stuck with the tulips!
<< <i>I think it was posted where it was meant to be posted ..... >>
Wait...are you telling me that 76 cello with Red Sox team on top is going to be worth $25 next year, Douglas??!!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>I think it was posted where it was meant to be posted ..... >>
Wait...are you telling me that 76 cello with Red Sox team on top is going to be worth $25 next year, Douglas??!! >>
Shhhhh...remember old people go to bed early Tim.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
Tulip Chart
It is not like three years ago was the first time people started collecting cards. The acceleration higher was 60 fold and the collapse took prices straight down and below where they started. There is no chance in my view that happens. I don't collect baseball cards but if some of the platinum items collapsed in value people like me would try and step in and that couldn't be said for the tulips.
If you want to make the claim that there are frothy valuations and sentiment that is a more compelling argument. There is clearly quite a bit of optimism.
Bubble chart
<< <i>Wait...are you telling me that 76 cello with Red Sox team on top is going to be worth $25 next year, Douglas??!! >>
The way their season is going, maybe $20.
LOL . . . Just a Red Sox Fan & Collector.
As also has been mentioned before, pull up the second edition of Mark Murphy's unopened pack price guide published in 2002 I believe and most if not all prices of all 1980s unopened wax prices are still lower than they were back then. Up until a year or so ago, even most 1970s unopened prices were still about where they were in 2000-2002 or lower. So I think unopened prices stagnated and even fell for most of the last decade. Only in the last year or two have the prices of 70s surpassed previous highs. Supply has shrunk, disposable incomes of people who were kids in the 70s have gone up and as mentioned above, the stock market has tripled in the last 6 years. Its easy to see how unopened prices have gone up so rapidly over the last few years.