Better call BBCE and stake a claim now before they are gone.
MrSnuffleupagus
Posts: 689
Spoiler Alert: They have all been sold already!
0
Comments
<< <i>How much does BBCE charge for the flash cards?? >>
Depends of you want them in shrink wrap or not.
Jeff
<< <i>Good night!! Those '68 racks are fantastic. The Carew rack would look very nice in my collection
Well, if you have Steve on speed dial you better press the button NOW!
<< <i>Are those up on their web? >>
I don't think so. They said they just picked them up.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>I want to know what is up with that IU coaster?!?
Now Mike, dont go jumping ship now. Dont even CONSIDER making an offer for it
<< <i>
<< <i>I want to know what is up with that IU coaster?!?
Now Mike, dont go jumping ship now. Dont even CONSIDER making an offer for it
I want to use it for target practice.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I want to know what is up with that IU coaster?!?
Now Mike, dont go jumping ship now. Dont even CONSIDER making an offer for it
I want to use it for target practice.
I'd hold out for that '74 Seaver rack....
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I want to know what is up with that IU coaster?!?
Now Mike, dont go jumping ship now. Dont even CONSIDER making an offer for it
I want to use it for target practice.
I'd hold out for that '74 Seaver rack.... >>
Shhhhhhh, Tim may hear.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I want to know what is up with that IU coaster?!?
Now Mike, dont go jumping ship now. Dont even CONSIDER making an offer for it
I want to use it for target practice.
I'd hold out for that '74 Seaver rack.... >>
Shhhhhhh, Tim may hear.
Did I get the section right? LOL
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I want to know what is up with that IU coaster?!?
Now Mike, dont go jumping ship now. Dont even CONSIDER making an offer for it
I want to use it for target practice.
I'd hold out for that '74 Seaver rack.... >>
Shhhhhhh, Tim may hear.
It would look even better if the IU coaster was covered by the Purdue train.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>It would look even better if the IU coaster was covered by the Purdue train.
Did I put Seaver in the right section? Or did I create a Pepe?
<< <i>It would look even better if the IU coaster was covered by the Purdue train.
Happy?
<< <i>
<< <i>It would look even better if the IU coaster was covered by the Purdue train.
Happy?
Yes, very.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>
<< <i>It would look even better if the IU coaster was covered by the Purdue train.
Did I put Seaver in the right section? Or did I create a Pepe? >>
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I want to know what is up with that IU coaster?!?
Now Mike, dont go jumping ship now. Dont even CONSIDER making an offer for it
I want to use it for target practice.
I'd hold out for that '74 Seaver rack.... >>
Shhhhhhh, Tim may hear.
Haven't you heard? Unopened prices are way too high.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Jeff
<< <i>A clean '73 baseball rack is always a nice find--real eye candy! >>
^^ This ^^
Anyone on here lucky enough to get one of those two 68's or any of the 73-76 stuff???
<< <i>
<< <i>It would look even better if the IU coaster was covered by the Purdue train.
Happy?
Collecting: Topps 1952-79, Bowman 1952-55, OPC 1965-71, and Pre-War White Sox cards
<< <i>Kendallcat, five hours ago steve told me the all the baseball racks from 68-76 in that pic already sold (and probably alot of other stuff in that pic that I didnt even inquire about).
Anyone on here lucky enough to get one of those two 68's or any of the 73-76 stuff??? >>
Natch. I don't even bother anymore.
<< <i>Kendallcat, five hours ago steve told me the all the baseball racks from 68-76 in that pic already sold (and probably alot of other stuff in that pic that I didnt even inquire about).
Anyone on here lucky enough to get one of those two 68's or any of the 73-76 stuff??? >>
Thank you for the reply and gotta be quick on that stuff! Looks like demand for unopened has taken a strong tick up recently, and have a feeling unless a large stash comes out again like Conlon prices will move up with it. I think what we are seeing is the 70's stuff finally starting to see strong demand due to guys who were collecting as kids those years hitting their 40's and 50's with more disposable income to spend on extra stuff like cards, and a lot of them are reliving their childhood years(not in a bad way) but wanting cards like a Schmidt rookie, Brett rookie, mid 70's Ryan... and willing to spend for it.
<< <i>
I think what we are seeing is the 70's stuff finally starting to see strong demand due to guys who were collecting as kids those years hitting their 40's and 50's with more disposable income to spend on extra stuff like cards, and a lot of them are reliving their childhood years(not in a bad way) but wanting cards like a Schmidt rookie, Brett rookie, mid 70's Ryan... and willing to spend for it. >>
I hear this all the time, but it doesn't explain what's happened to unopened prices in the last two years. Such an effect would be gradual, not the manic craze we've experienced. What you cite is a background condition for gradually rising (and then declining as the aging process continues) prices, but it in no way explains what's going on now.
common to see between 70-100 1970s items on the BBCE website. Starting in about May of 2012 we started seeing
a major decrease. At first the item availability dropped into the 50s. It wasn't long before the fall off continued down
into the 30s and even 20s range. And at those reduced levels it was typically the more obscure items that have been
around for a long time rather than new inventory to replace those items which had sold.
The bottom line is that supply has dried up on the early-mid 1970s and has been somewhat reduced for the late 1970s.
At the same time, there have been several new entrants into the market with significant resources to purchase 1970s
unopened. Mixed with the existing buyers and there us no doubt that demand is increased.
The sum total of these situations is that prices are rising (and will continue to rise) until an equilibrium is reached. IMO
we are finally starting to approach that point with some 1970s unopened (e.g. the more commonly available items like
1975 minis, items that are plentiful in the Fritsch inventory etc.).
As for the less common items, it's still an ascending market. There was a sale of a 1974 wax box a few months ago at $9500.
I thought that to be a little strong at the time. But since national a 1974 box just crossed well into the 5-figures level. That gives
us some indication of where things stand.
Dave
I respect your judgment, and have no doubt that your observations are correct, as far as they go. But the question remains: what is reducing the supply?
In the last two years, have collectors started furiously ripping 1974 wax boxes? Have end-user collectors developed a greater taste for wax boxes? Both of those things may have happened to a small degree, but I would guess the real pressure on the market is coming from speculative buying. That's a noteworthy distinction to me because that product can re-emerge if circumstances change.
So my question is: do you believe this stuff to really be absorbed into long-term collections, or is it more speculative than that?
<< <i>Dave,
I respect your judgment, and have no doubt that your observations are correct, as far as they go. But the question remains: what is reducing the supply?
In the last two years, have collectors started furiously ripping 1974 wax boxes? Have end-user collectors developed a greater taste for wax boxes? Both of those things may have happened to a small degree, but I would guess the real pressure on the market is coming from speculative buying. That's a noteworthy distinction to me because that product can re-emerge if circumstances change.
So my question is: do you believe this stuff to really be absorbed into long-term collections, or is it more speculative than that? >>
There a many dimensions to the supply shrinkage. The major ones are:
1) Original production - some of the years from the 1970s had much lower production than others. For example, 1971 wax was significantly lower production than the years that immediately preceded it. 1974 wax also a lower volume year, as some of the production was diverted to the full box sets that were sold at Sears.
While Topps did not release actual production numbers in those days, it is pretty much widely known that these years had less production than others. A few other years in the 1970s also had shorter production, but not as short as the two I already referenced.
2) Surviving inventory - several of the years in question had known significant surviving inventory. Fritsch had/has 1970 cello, 1973 cello, 1973 wax, 1975 cello and 1979 rack. The Conlon collection is the source of most of the 1975 mini wax and cello that we see today. This surviving inventory accounts for a lot of what seems plentiful, but is sometimes really not so abundant as thought.
3) Box rips - whether driven by the fun or the upward movement of high end stars and lop pops from that era, there has most definitely been shrinkage of the supply caused by ripping. Besides our group rips, you may recall the opening of a 1970 series 5/6/7 box here a few years ago. Rarely do these rips work out economically, but with every box/pack opened there are that many less available for market resale
4) Long-term collectors - There can be little doubt that the unopened niche has been growing. With the reflation of the markets, there are people in their 40s and 50s with excess disposable income who are entering the market and buying up 1970s unopened. Half a dozen or so of them are pretty heavy hitters. Dozens are more than able to pay 4 figures for a chance to recapture their childhood favorites.
5) Speculation - While not the primary driver behind this, with run ups like we have seen the speculators are usually not too far behind. At this point, there was not much early-mid 1970s unopened material left for consumption by this audience. It is this group that I feel is driving the moves we have seen in the late 70s material.
Historically the prices of unopened material have followed a stair-step trajectory, until they eventually settle at a "maturity" point when the supply is so thin that it becomes something you only see offered every few years. Thats where we are with 1970-1972, 1974, 1975 regular
wax boxes (baseball) right now. 1973 we are still seeing pretty regularly thanks to Fritsch, and 1975 minis too. 1976 and 1977 are getting
close to the maturity point. 1978-1979 (and 1980) are probably still several years away at best.
Similar analyses regarding cellos and racks confirm that the same thing is going on there. Its mostly baseball right now, but football is following the same trends.
I draw these opinions from 10+ years of observations and tracking of the sales and prices in the market(public and private sales). While there are also some other factors a play here, I think these are the most significant ones.
Dave
Thanks for the information
I am curious about your opinion on 60s wax. How likely are we to see a 60s box come up for sale or do you think for items like that is it all done behind the scenes. I am also curious, as in the other thread discussing how many unopened case from the 60s there might be, what do you think in regards to unopened 60s boxes out there and which years are harder to find. Based on my limited experience it also appears to be the odd years for wax. It seems odd that boxes from 1955 might be more common than ones from the 60s but with the Paris TN find that might be true. I wonder how many of the boxes from that find stayed unopened and how many were broken up.
Jim
60's OPC packs
72 BB, 60's FB, 71FB, 73FB, 74FB, 75FB, 76FB, 78FB Rack Packs
72 and earlier BB cello
<< <i>Dave,
I am curious about your opinion on 60s wax. How likely are we to see a 60s box come up for sale or do you think for items like that is it all done behind the scenes. I am also curious, as in the other thread discussing how many unopened case from the 60s there might be, what do you think in regards to unopened 60s boxes out there and which years are harder to find. Based on my limited experience it also appears to be the odd years for wax. It seems odd that boxes from 1955 might be more common than ones from the 60s but with the Paris TN find that might be true. I wonder how many of the boxes from that find stayed unopened and how many were broken up.
Jim >>
Jim,
At this stage, legitimate 60s boxes are only seen available in rare occasions. Think about what we've seen offered publicly in the past 5 years (working from memory):
- A 1967 series 1 cello
- A partially full 1960 wax (22 packs if I remmeber correctly)
- A questionable 1968 wax box (Legit seller but several of us have serious doubts about that box)
- If my memory is accurate (and I can check my records) I think there was a 1962 wax box offered by a public auction house a few years back
I am aware of less than 2 dozen private offers/transactions for 60s material in the same timeframe (and several of
those were for the same boxes). I am not plugged into everything so I assume there are more. I couldn't say for
sure how many, but IMO I doubt that its more than those I already am aware of. I think at this stage most 1960s (and 1950s)
sales of unopened boxes are happening privately, and usually involve only the true heavyweights.
The way I see it, 60s unopened reached maturity 8-10 years ago. Other than the rebounds from some blowout sales that occurred in 2007-2009, the top stair-step
for these boxes has been already been reached for most of them. Don't get me wrong, these are all serious 5-figure items, but they already had their big run. The 70s
move we are in now is starting to level-off now, but ignoring the abnormaility of the financial crisis years (when some low-ball sales were made) the my records show
prices for the ealier 1970s material growing about 10x versus the growth in prices of 60s material during the same timeframe.
If I were to take a guess at it, I'd say that the odds of finding many years of double-digit full wax boxes from 1952-1969 are pretty low at this point, and I seriously doubt
that there would be any sealed wax cases from those years left. I think a large percentage of Alan's find in Paris was actually opened (resulting in many of the higher-grade
post-war star cards that we see today) or broken up into individual packs. The massive premiums that the TPG era brought were just too tempting not to go on an unopened treasure hunt.
For 1960s wax boxes (and ignoring series) I think the ones with the highest remaining populations are 1969, 1966, 1962 and 1960. And while these may have the highest
remaining populations, that doesn't mean there are that many of them either (and I am pretty sure most are being held in collections for the long-term). I think the years with
the lowest remaining wax box populations are 1961 and 1967. The other years I'd put between these two groups.
Other packaging is an very different story. For example, I've seen a good number of 1966-1969 racks over the years. But for earlier in the 1960s its usually just a handful
(and in the case of 1962 I have only seen the one rack with Spahn showing and the Clemente stamp which Steve Blaze picked-up in Alaska and offered on eBay a few years
ago...hence why I went for it).
There was the sale of the Canadian 1954 boxes that was done at Mastro a ways back, but other than that I cant recall a full box public offering from the 1950s going back at least 10 years. I am aware of someone who holds a few 1952 Topps wax boxes who turned-down a mid 6-figure offer for one of them. My opinion is that there are a few
(i.e. single-digit per year) wax boxes left for many (but not all years) in the 1950s, but they are the true rarities.
I hope that helps a little.
Dave
<< <i> Rarely do these rips work out economically >>
This was a gratuitous statement and not necessary to further your argument. In addition, you have no basis to make such a claim despite your oft-stated 10+ years of experience and vigorous tracking of the market.
<< <i>
<< <i> Rarely do these rips work out economically >>
This was a gratuitous statement and not necessary to further your argument. In addition, you have no basis to make such a claim despite your oft-stated 10+ years of experience and vigorous tracking of the market. >>
Chris,
Not intending to be gratuitous at all. All I am saying us that when you are spending $5k and up on an unopened box it's not often that you pull out enough high grade stars and low-pops to cover the cost of what you spent for the box (unless you happen to have purchased it long ago when it wasn't priced as high as they have been in the last few years). You of all people should be able to attest to this using your 1970 5/6/7 box rip as a textbook example.
While it is possible that you could pull a gem mint superstar from unopened material, those are some pretty long odds that its going to actually work out economically. Yeah, someone might pull PSA 10 1970 Ryan or a 1976 PSA 10 Brett either if which would probably be a multi 5-figure card but the planets would all need to align just right (i.e. the card is in the pack, you get it out safely, it gets past PSA scrutiny of today, etc.). Consider an 86 Fleer BKB box at the current price of $29,500. You would need to pull both Jordan's as PSA 10s to have any chance at making money on the box if you ripped it.
Lower priced boxes might be slightly better, but still outrageously long odds. 1979 wax boxes at $2k sound great when you consider an Ozzie RC in PSA 10 could fetch $20k, but in psa's entire history how many of them have been given a 10? Maybe 3-4 out of probably a thousand or so that have been submitted? And even if you could pull 2 nines from that notoriously OC year you would still have a long way to go to get back to the original $2k outlay.
I'm not making any judgments about ripping. I do it myself from time to time. All I am saying is that unopened treasure hunting is usually not going to pan out. And I am not referring to our "group" rips either because in those we spread out the cost enough that a few hits actually do occur. It's the situations where the high costs are concentrated in one (or a few) that I sm speaking about.
Dave
<< <i>It seems to me the supply of unopened has remained roughly the same over the years. What has changed is that a core group of hoarders have gradually tucked away enough of it so that the turnover and availability we had seen for years no longer exist. Factor in a new generation of collectors/investors who have benefited financially from the fed's easy money policies and what we have is a sudden, continuous spike in prices. >>
I wonder what will happen during the next economic downturn - not that I'm looking forward to it. Are these hoarders people that will need to liquidate assets resulting in flooding of inventory and a price drop or are they people that can wait it out and avoid selling at a loss? I assume the latter on people who own product from the mid-70s or so and earlier but that early 80s items could take a big hit. I just recently got back into collecting so I don't know what prices were in 1999 vs. 2002 vs. 2005 vs. 2009 so I have no baseline.
I have always believed the perception of the results of that box were colored by the posting of each card pulled one-by-one rather than highlights. Also, I quit posting altogether midway through the box rip.
The box yielded some really nice cards. I only wish I kept track of what came from the box so I could have posted a collection of slabbed results.
At the time, it made some marginal economic sense to open the box. Now such a box would fetch $20k+ (if one ever actually surfaced). The economic argument would be more strained. It was worth every penny to me at the time though.
I am going to say this for the first time. And I am going to choose how I say it very carefully. I do not believe the opening of that box at the time that I opened it did anything to hurt interest in unopened material going forward.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>OK fair enough Dave. I guess the comment came off to me as some rube once opened a 1970 hi-number box.
I have always believed the perception of the results of that box were colored by the posting of each card pulled one-by-one rather than highlights. Also, I quit posting altogether midway through the box rip.
The box yielded some really nice cards. I only wish I kept track of what came from the box so I could have posted a collection of slabbed results.
At the time, it made some marginal economic sense to open the box. Now such a box would fetch $20k+ (if one ever actually surfaced). The economic argument would be more strained. It was worth every penny to me at the time though.
I am going to say this for the first time. And I am going to choose how I say it very carefully. I do not believe the opening of that box at the time that I opened it did anything to hurt interest in unopened material going forward. >>
Chris
Again my apologies if you took it that way. It was not directed at you or anyone for any rips done before, nor was it a knock on anyone who enjoys opening up vintage material. As I said, I've been known to open 70s racks, cellos and wax on more than 1 occasion myself. I just do it less these days, as the costs have gone up substantially.
I recall your box rip well, and it was clear that your primary motivation was the enjoyment. And you pulled some real nice cards from that box too. We all enjoyed seeing the surprises that came from that effort. The Pena that you received a 9 for was awesome. I recall you also had a pretty nice Ryan too (I don't recall if you submitted that one or not).
My main point was that from a pure speculation standpoint, the days of speculators buying up early 1970s unopened material to open in hopes of pulling gems are basically over. If someone is going to speculate on this stuff now it is with n eye to reselling the unopened material at a higher price at a later date (no idea how quickly though, as I think we are reaching the end of the current leg up).
Cheers
Dave
Guys - I really loved opening that box. Sad to think I may never have the opportunity again.
Saw Billy Joel at MSG recently on his 65th birthday. The Garden was sold out, filled wityh adoring fans. He said how people ask him why he keeps doing this, that he should be retired. He said "This is a great job. I highly recommend it. If you ever have the opportunity to do this job, you should tdo it."
Same thing here. If you ever have the opportunity to rip a 1970 wax box, do it!
There is no rational way to explain the love we all share for these little pieces of cardboard.
<< <i>There is no rational way to explain the love we all share for these little pieces of cardboard. >>
Baseball cards simply take us back to the happiest, least stressful days of our life--our childhood!