Plenty of volitility in equities.
MGLICKER
Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
Good to see a two way market again.
0
MGLICKER
Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
Comments
<< <i>Time to buy the dip... Back up the truck... >>
I have been labeled as too dumb to have a viable opinion on that. The experts will certainly chime in at daybreak!
<< <i>
<< <i>Time to buy the dip... Back up the truck... >>
I have been labeled as too dumb to have a viable opinion on that. The experts will certainly chime in at daybreak!
Me three. But I prefer to say ignorant. It sounds better.
borrowed another chart from cohodk.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
But since the PM bulls always tout "inflation adjust price" to coerce buying interest, maybe we should do the same for equities? Since the dollar has "lost" 93% of its purchasing power since 1927, the DOW is really only at 1200.
Also interesting to note that when a similar looking chart of gold was posted 3 years ago, the idea was that gold was still in a massive uptrend.
Now I understand why people shun technical analysis.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Probably best to start unloading that equity truck.
borrowed another chart from cohodk.
Is this in inflation devalued dollars? Whats the line look like if it was still 1974 dollars?
Successful BST deals with mustangt and jesbroken. Now EVERYTHING is for sale.
The point closest to the right side of the graph would be at 3100.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Volatile? I thought the VIX was still pretty low? 14 something >>
correct, currently no volatility. Subject to quick change.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Whats the line look like if it was still 1974 dollars?
The point closest to the right side of the graph would be at 3100. >>
Pedal to go then.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>even with an end to QE, easy money will still be the rule of the day as long as FED continues a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). They really can't allow rate to rise, the curtain will expose them for what they are - adademics working by theory in unchartered waters. >>
Bernanke openly acknowledged that in 2008 and after. That he was an academic and his policy moves carried an uncertain risk. Though I disagree strongly with many of his maneuvers, the transparency was appreciated.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>even with an end to QE, easy money will still be the rule of the day as long as FED continues a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). They really can't allow rate to rise, the curtain will expose them for what they are - adademics working by theory in unchartered waters. >>
Bernanke openly acknowledged that in 2008 and after. That he was an academic and his policy moves carried an uncertain risk. Though I disagree strongly with many of his maneuvers, the transparency was appreciated.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Why was the low volatility in gold ignored a few years ago? >>
Good question.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm asking because I don't know how much relevance volatility should really have in either case, unless the volatility is artificially induced in the first place. Is low volatility in 2014 the same as low volatility in 1987? I haven't done the study.
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
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<< <i>Why was the low volatility in gold ignored a few years ago? >>
Good question. >>
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Does low volatility in gold mean the same thing as low volatility in stocks?
I'm asking because I don't know how much relevance volatility should really have in either case, unless the volatility is artificially induced in the first place. Is low volatility in 2014 the same as low volatility in 1987? I haven't done the study. >>
First you must accept that technical analysis is only a study of chart patterns. It has nothing to do with manipulations, conspiracy theories or voodoo. It matters not whether the chart be of gold, stocks, earthquakes, sun spots, viruses, rainfall. It is just a study of data points. The more points, the better the pattern, which is why it works so well with stocks as there are millions of data points, but it is still just a study of data. The data points may be influenced by manipulations or conspiracies or other forces, but the patterns that are created still valid. We are not studying data points, but rather the patterns that develop. If you dont understand this then you will never accept technical analysis.
Low volatility in stocks or gold or earthquakes or rainfall, all mean the same---a divergence from the mean. It doesnt matter how the low volatility came to be, it just is. The same for the term "artificial". ZIRP is no more artificial than a 1% or 5% interest rate policy. Just because you havent seen it before doesnt make it artificial, it just is. To me, the term artificial is something that mimics the original (natural), like food flavorings. 0%, or 1%, or 5% or 10% interest rates are all original (natural) and cannot be mimicked. You may not think 0% is natural because you have never seen it before, but that doesnt make it unnatural. History is full of periods of 0% or negative interest rates.
Chart patterns are just chart patterns and they can be highly predicable. While the data that comprises those charts may be questioned, the patterns that develop are true. If an earthquake creates a tsunami that increases wave height, it that pattern artificial? Of course not, so the increase and decrease in wave height and frequency and be fairly accurately predicted, even though that pattern was influenced by an event.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>First you must accept that technical analysis is only a study of chart patterns. It has nothing to do with manipulations, conspiracy theories or voodoo. >>
Market perception is a study of manipulation, conspiracy theories, voodoo and many other sentiment inputs. Perception is an important part of price discovery.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Perception is what creates buyers and sellers. Perception, especially popular perception, is usually wrong. Everyone thinking the same is what creates highs and lows. That perception can and is easily plotted on graphs and can be highly predicable.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Time to buy the dip... Back up the truck... >>
Yep... Amazing 2 weeks...
<< <i>
<< <i>Time to buy the dip... Back up the truck... >>
Yep... Amazing 2 weeks... >>
Yes, there is only 1 game in town... Equities...
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Time to buy the dip... Back up the truck... >>
Yep... Amazing 2 weeks... >>
Yes, there is only 1 game in town... Equities... >>
Got my shoes shined today, got the same advice.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Like I said aug 7th it was back up truck moment , don't care what your shoeshine boy said or how u interpreted it...lol... >>
Good call. The odd part about market bubbles is the more the asset becomes overvalued, the more confident that the players become.
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<< <i>Like I said aug 7th it was back up truck moment , don't care what your shoeshine boy said or how u interpreted it...lol... >>
Good call. The odd part about market bubbles is the more the asset becomes overvalued, the more confident that the players become. >>
Maybe we are in a bubble, maybe we aren't. I don't know if you are explicitly claiming we are, or just floating it out there as an idea to consider. I personally don't think we are in a bubble. Of course, I could be wrong. Nobody can time the markets-bears or bulls. Nobody here (at least in my quick reading of this thread) has claimed they can time the markets-and nobody should try to time the markets. Warren Buffett lost SO much money in COP, conoco phillips when he bought when oil was at an all time high, and then it crashed-along with the stock market. He never recouped his money...only around maybe 3/4 of it with dividends...that could be hundreds of millions...or billions with the amount Mr Buffett can afford.
Those who try to time the market will get burned. Ride out what the market gives you. Time in the market long term term beats timing the market. Shorting is a very risky proposition, much riskier than being long in a given equity.
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<< <i>Like I said aug 7th it was back up truck moment , don't care what your shoeshine boy said or how u interpreted it...lol... >>
Good call. The odd part about market bubbles is the more the asset becomes overvalued, the more confident that the players become. >>
U mean like when silver n gold were way higher?...
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<< <i>
<< <i>Like I said aug 7th it was back up truck moment , don't care what your shoeshine boy said or how u interpreted it...lol... >>
Good call. The odd part about market bubbles is the more the asset becomes overvalued, the more confident that the players become. >>
U mean like when silver n gold were way higher?... >>
Exactly!
Somehow gold was going to soar to $4000 and silver to $100.
Fundamentals go out the window in exuberant markets. Somehow inflation will stay at 2%*, profits will rise by 10% a year and any downturn will be fixed by the fed.
Absolutely nothing can go wrong.
*Of course the real CPI is closer to 8% but for now, we will play lets pretend.
<< <i>Text Shorting is a very risky proposition, much riskier than being long in a given equity. >>
Very true. Fortunately my plays in retail have done well this year.
For the current market numbers to work, one has to believe that interest rates will stay near historic low rates. With CPI running at 7-8% this is a difficult scenario to visualize.
Fed has been successful so far, but a spike in rates will be an equity disaster.
Such little understanding of intermarker relationships.
Oh well, gotta occupy our time with a fear of some sort.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As long as the Fed keeps rates close to zero, buyers will continue to favor equities.
We are actually in a worldwide deflation, but a very mild one. That is a perfect background for equities.
<< <i>We are actually in a worldwide deflation, but a very mild one. That is a perfect background for equities. >>
Been to a supermarket lately? Japan and Europe also falsely claim extremely low inflation. Both have a declining currency to the dollar so how is that possible?
With no inflation, explain how corporate revenue rose 5% yty. The numbers do not work.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>We are actually in a worldwide deflation, but a very mild one. >>
Gulp.....by what measure? Oil has been flat in the US, but higher in Japan and Europe as their currency slides. Food as a group is up 7-8% as is medical, education, auto repairs, cable and internet service.
I did pick up some closeout shorts for $7 a pair at Kmart the other day, but that hardly offsets everything else.
Umm, people buying more crap than they did the year before? Crazy huh! But it's true. Damn humans with their wants and needs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>We are actually in a worldwide deflation, but a very mild one. >>
Gulp.....by what measure? Oil has been flat in the US, but higher in Japan and Europe as their currency slides. Food as a group is up 7-8% as is medical, education, auto repairs, cable and internet service.
I did pick up some closeout shorts for $7 a pair at Kmart the other day, but that hardly offsets everything else. >>
oil by retail gas measures at the pump is down 10+%
food you can make up any number cause no one eats the same...
education? library is free
auto repairs? do em yourself, cant?, see library... otherwise make deal with friend or referral
cable & internet? no one needs, thats a luxury, if one has cell phone on verizon hot spot is free, or any mcd's, starbucks etc... otherwise you dont need it...
<< <i>With no inflation, explain how corporate revenue rose 5% yty
Umm, people buying more crap than they did the year before? Crazy huh! But it's true. Damn humans with their wants and needs. >>
I suspect that they bought the same amount of stuff but at higher prices. Twizzlers and generic potato chips aside.
Corporate profits increase because corporations are operating more effectively. That includes lower
employee expense, efficiency from mergers and acquisitions, and (with low interest rates) lower interest
expense and benefits from financial leverage.
Corporations are not experiencing either labor inflation (actually labor deflation) or commodity price inflation.
Things will not stay so idyllic for equities forever. Several things could go wrong:
...Putin could invade Ukraine and then a NATO member.
...Healthcare for aging baby boomers could be a drain on the economy with little economic benefit.
...Increased commodity demand from China and India could lead to inflation.
...There could be a worldwide pandemic.
...Racial issues in America could greatly intensify.
...Hackers could create an economic crisis.
...We could tip into a true deflation and worldwide economic depression.
For now, enjoy the party, but know where all the exits are located.