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Skin: Question about Keith Hernandez

grote15grote15 Posts: 29,480 ✭✭✭✭✭
I often wonder why Keith Hernandez did not get more support for the HOF. I'm not saying he should be in the HOF but in light of some of the players who have been enshrined in recent years, shouldn't he have gotten a bit more support than he received? Is it simply because of a lack of power and RBI production? Even with below average power, Keith's lifetime OBP% of .384, SLG% of .436 and OPS+ of 128, compiled during an era not nearly as easy to hit within as the present era, seems impressive. Add to that 11 Gold Gloves, 2 WS rings, an MVP and two other top 5 MVP seasons, and you'd think he'd at least eclipsed 20-30% of the HOF vote, yet he never broke 10% while he was on the ballot.


Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.

Comments

  • lawnmowermanlawnmowerman Posts: 19,477 ✭✭✭✭
    I always liked Keith as a player. I think you're right about the lack of power. How about hits? He finished with 2182. Is that not enough? I always thought you needed 3000 or close to it to make the hall.

    Seems like there are lesser players in the hof than him.
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    Didn't Keith have some substance abuse issues?
  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 29,361 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I always liked this cover


    image
  • Skin2Skin2 Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭
    Grote,

    To me, the biggest knock on him is that he didn't have a long enough career. He played partial seasons at age 34-36, and was done. His last two years he had OPS+ of 91 and 49. So it would seem that he simply fell off a cliff and was done earlier than a typical HOFer.

    His 128 career OPS+ is very nice...except when you take into account that he had very few at bats in his decline phase.


    I agree that he probably got judged more harshly with the lack of HR and RBI since he was a first baseman.


    He was also one of those hitters that had a nice career of batting with men on base.

    His Win Probability Added was 38.6

    Compare that to Rice 25.8

    It starts to paint a better picture how valuable he was to his teams' with his bat.
  • TabeTabe Posts: 5,920 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I often wonder why Keith Hernandez did not get more support for the HOF. I'm not saying he should be in the HOF but in light of some of the players who have been enshrined in recent years, shouldn't he have gotten a bit more support than he received? >>


    It's really pretty simple - if you're a first basemen, getting 160 or so hits every year with 13 HRs ain't gonna get it done, unless you retired in 1918. Keith had a wonderful career, he just didn't do enough power-wise while playing a power position to garner much support for the HOF. In addition, his defense was (rightly) mostly ignored. First base is, by far, the easiest position defensively. Keith gets credit for being great defensively but that really doesn't mean much at a position where defense really isn't all that important. Add that to the lack of power and you get a guy with no real HOF consideration.
  • BrickBrick Posts: 4,923 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Didn't Keith have some substance abuse issues? >>


    Can't remember the details but Hernandez raked someone over the coals and threatened to make his life miserable if he didn't shut the crap up and the guy was right about Hernandez all along.
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  • TabeTabe Posts: 5,920 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Didn't Keith have some substance abuse issues? >>


    He was one of the guys who testified in the Pittsburgh Drug Trials, during which he admitted he'd used cocaine for three years. Supposedly Hernandez's cocaine use, along with his difficult personality, was the reason he got traded by St. Louis.
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,480 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I get the lack of power argument and that 1B is not an especially demanding position defensively, but I watched Keith play pretty much on a daily basis from 1983-1988 and he made some truly outstanding plays in the field. As I said, I'm not saying he should be in the HOF but a guy with those stats, OBP%, OPS+ and an MVP and two other top 4 MVP seasons deserved more than 5% of the ballot, imo. I think Skin is correct--his decline was rather sudden and his career not quite long enough. He certainly should be ranked ranked higher than Garvey, whose name you also hear when 1B from this era are being discussed.


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • Skin2Skin2 Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭
    He probably does get knocked down for not hitting for enough power while playing first base. However, that is unfair, and shouldn't matter. His offensive value is what matters.

    Tony Gwynn didn't have any more defensive value than Hernandez, and he doesn't get knocked down for his lack of power.

    Gwynn has a 132 OPS+
    Hernandez 128 OPS+

    However, that is misleading as Gwynn played much longer. So it comes down to Hernandez not having a long enough career(and his peak wasn't quite dominant enough to overcome that).

    Here are each of their top OPS+ seasons(full seasons only):

    Gwynn....Keith
    169......151
    158......147
    156......143
    141......142
    138......140
    137......131
    135......129
    133......127
    132......127
    128......125
    128......120
    124......108
    121
    118
    117
    112


    In Summation, his OPS+ at 128 is nice, but is misleading since he had a relatively short career with no old man years to bring that percentage down like Boggs, Brett, Murray etc...had. In addition, he really didn't have the top prime years like some of the other HOFers from his era. He probably had two top prime years, whereas the elite hitters of that era had more like five or six years better than Hernandez's best year.


    Looking at everything, Hernandez is close, but just behind the elite...and I agree with Grote questioning why he only got 5% of the vote while being as good or better than Rice...and Rice gets in!






  • DboneesqDboneesq Posts: 18,220 ✭✭


    << <i>Keith gets credit for being great defensively but that really doesn't mean much at a position where defense really isn't all that important. >>


    I have to disagree with this. Managers actually changed their strategy and would not bunt at times they should have when Hernandez was at first. Here is a paragraph or two from the below LINKED article:

    Hernandez revolutionized the first base position, finishing in the top three in assists — 12 straight years. Let’s face it- teams were afraid to bunt with Hernandez at the corner. The father of Sabermetrics, Bill James, even devised a stat using Hernandez to separate first baseman in assists from all other positional players.

    According to Brian Kenny, of MLB Network’s Club House Confidential, “Bill James found that first baseman could separate themselves by making assists at all bases other than first. James found that Hernandez was making 20-30 more outs per season than the average team. James even named it "The Keith Hernandez Breakthrough“.


    Very interesting article on Hernandez and the HOF.
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  • digicatdigicat Posts: 8,551 ✭✭
    Hernandez still got more support than Will Clark, who fell off in his first ballot.

    Clark posted career numbers of .303/.384/.497, OPS+ 137, 2176 hits, and 284 hr.
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    WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
  • Jeff Bagwell > Fred McGriff > Will Clark > Don Mattingly > Keith Hernandez > Steve Garvey. Is my opinion of some 1B's not in the hall. The Hall has worse players in than all I mentioned. The Hall has worse !B's in also. Never understood Hall logic and gave up even trying to understand.
  • DIMEMANDIMEMAN Posts: 22,403 ✭✭✭✭✭
    >>>I always liked Keith as a player. I think you're right about the lack of power. How about hits? He finished with 2182. Is that not enough? I always thought you needed 3000 or close to it to make the hall.<<<

    What if they took everyone out of the HOF who has less hits than Pete Rose!!!

    THERE WOULD NOT BE ANYBODY IN THE HOF!!! Think about it.image

    The Hall is nothing....squat....until the All Time Hit Leader is in!image
  • TabeTabe Posts: 5,920 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>He probably does get knocked down for not hitting for enough power while playing first base. However, that is unfair, and shouldn't matter. His offensive value is what matters. >>


    The lack of power absolutely does matter. You can't slug .436 at 1B and expect to make the Hall. Period. No 20 HR seasons? Slugged .500 just once? 1B is, and always will be, a power position. If you don't hit for power there, you're just not getting in the HOF, no matter how good your glove is. Hernandez was amazing defensively but that ain't enough.

    Lemme put it another way: Keith Hernandez was John Olerud with less power, fewer hits, a lower OPS+, and a shorter career.

    How many people are clamoring for Olerud to be in the HOF?
  • lanemyer85lanemyer85 Posts: 1,315 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>He probably does get knocked down for not hitting for enough power while playing first base. However, that is unfair, and shouldn't matter. His offensive value is what matters. >>


    The lack of power absolutely does matter. You can't slug .436 at 1B and expect to make the Hall. Period. No 20 HR seasons? Slugged .500 just once? 1B is, and always will be, a power position. If you don't hit for power there, you're just not getting in the HOF, no matter how good your glove is. Hernandez was amazing defensively but that ain't enough.

    Lemme put it another way: Keith Hernandez was John Olerud with less power, fewer hits, a lower OPS+, and a shorter career.

    How many people are clamoring for Olerud to be in the HOF? >>




    I agree with most of what you're saying here, but let's go in another direction than that of Olerud. Say Joe Mauer is either drafted as a 1B or earlier on in his career gets piped with those concussion issues that he has now. For kicks, let's just say it happens in his first full season where he was 22. He'll finish this season with over 1500 hits and an OBP over .400. Slugging somewhere around .460. Since aside from that concussion riddled season he averages at least 140 GP. Without the wear of being a catcher I think it's safe to inflate his offensive counting stats by at least 5%. Probably more especially in his peak seasons. Same with the rate stats.

    Since a totally unathletic type like Paul Konerko can last 18 seasons, let's just say he equals that with a normalized decline. So far in a half season sample at 1B, his defense rates pretty well. His basic F% is that of last season's AL Gold Glove winner, Hosmer, and his range numbers are slightly better than Hosmer if you believe in those estimates. So perhaps he wins multiple Gold Gloves at 1B over his career and thus far he's a +9 baserunner. Thus we're looking at a 3000 hit guy, a career say .310 hitter (he's at .320 presently), a Tim Raines-esque career OBP% in the .380-.390 range (currently at .402), and he played for one team. So there's that whole Tony Gwynn - only played for one team/hometown kid narrative. He has 3 batting titles by the age of 30, and 1 MVP award with 3 other seasons in the top 10 of voting. You can make an easy argument he should have also won the MVP in 2008 over Morneau where his WAR topped that of Morneau and runner up Jeter. But let's just say 1 MVP, 3000+ hits, .310 career BA, .390ish OBP, and a .450 SL% with somewhere around 240-ish HRs along with say 4 or 5 Gold Gloves and at worst a plus baserunner while playing the majority of his career in a home park that is murder on left-handed power. His comps currently at the age of 30 are guys like Pie Traynor, Dick Allen, and Joey Belle. With a normalized decline, you'd probably be looking at someone fairly close to 95% of Wade Boggs' hit tool career numbers with perhaps 50% more career HRs as Boggs. Mauer should come close to equaling Boggs career HR total by the end of the season. The avg WAR for a HOF 1B is 65.9. At 30, Mauer is at 44. You can probably inflate that by 5% because a catcher's dWAR is generally depressed. In this scenario, I think he would have a pretty good shot at giving an awkward outdoor speech to aging Minnesotans dressed in Kentucky Derby sun hats.
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