Thoughts on Ryan Howard

markj111

1. Who is responsible for giving him a contract that nearly everyone thought was absurd at the time?
2. Will said person be held accountable?
3. When will the Phillies just set him down?
4. What are their alternatives?
5. Who was the person (maybe more than one) defending the contract on the boards?

markj111

I looked it up. This is what SteveK had to say at the time:

I guess you haven't noticed the Phillies success since Ryan joined the team including a World Series championship in 2008. Coincidental? I think not. Plus he has been up there in the MVP voting every season he has played after his rookie season. Also, fans come to the ballpark to see him hit.

ryan howard is worth every penny of this contract. Case closed..



I assume there are others whowould like to reopen the case.

grote15

<< <i>I looked it up. This is what SteveK had to say at the time:

I guess you haven't noticed the Phillies success since Ryan joined the team including a World Series championship in 2008. Coincidental? I think not. Plus he has been up there in the MVP voting every season he has played after his rookie season. Also, fans come to the ballpark to see him hit.

ryan howard is worth every penny of this contract. Case closed..



I assume there are others whowould like to reopen the case. >>



SteveK wasn't the most prescient sports fan out there, was he, lol...wonder what happened to him??

perkdog

SteveK was a moron - case closed.

Tim, he left after furiously defending Paterno and the rest of the scumbags at Penn State.

grote15

Ugh, I had forgotten about that slimy episode.

PowderedH2O

Funny thing is on the baseball reference site, they list Ryan Howard as entering that grey zone of being a Hall of Famer. Yet, they say that by similarity score his closest score is Richie Sexson and none of the top ten will get into the Hall without a ticket. I'd say he has about a 1% chance at his current rate, unless he pulls some sort of incredible turnaround.

Dboneesq

I'm not going to defend the Contract that he was given (and I am NOT a Howard Fan or a Phillie Fan), as I think the money the players now receive has gotten out of hand. HOWEVER, his current contract ... $125M for 5 years ... was signed at the start of the 2010 season. The four prior years, his power numbers had to be near the top of the league.

His stats for those years:

2006 ... 58 HR (lead both leagues) and 149 RBI (lead both leagues)

2007 ... 47 HR (2nd in NL) and 136 RBI (2nd in NL)

2008 ... 48 HR (lead both leagues) and 146 RBI (lead both leagues)

2009 ... 45 HR (3rd in all of baseball) and 141 RBI (Tied for the lead in all of baseball)

Hindsight is 20/20. However, at the time he was signed, I guess you could argue that he was one of the best players in all of baseball the prior 4 years and that he deserved a crazy contract.

lawnmowerman

The beginning of the end for Howard was when he started eating at Subway. That "food" sucks your will to live lol

Skin2

Thoughts on Howard?

At his best(his short three year prime), he was not even as good as Carlos Delgado.

At his next best part of his career, he was no better than Richie Sexson.

His last few years he has been about as good as Rob Deer.

His RBI totals are a refection of his team as much as they are of him. He was a great HR hitter for a few years...but he had a great lineup, and that is where the RBI totals get a boost.

However, being the best HR hitter doesn't make you one of the best hitters in the league.

His career breakdown is as follows:

'04-'07 OPS+ of 151. This was the prime of his career. To put that in perspective Carlos Delgado had a three year prime with an OPS+ of 159....and other 3yr stretches higher too!
'08'-'11 OPS+ of 130. To put that into perspective, Richie Sexson had a few different three year stretches with OPS+ as good or better than that.
'12-'14 OPS+ 0f 102. To put that into perspective, Rob Deer had a few different three year stretches better than that.

All of that while being a poor defensive player.


I used to say Dave Kingman, but he is falling into Rob Deer very quickly.

I shutter to think which player he will look like on the next rung of the ladder comprising his next three years(the final years of his contract).

Felix Fermin?


And for the record, I stated back then it was a horrible contract, saw through his false RBI totals at the time, and stated hat he would morph into Dave Kingman. I guess I was wrong, he has morphed into Rob Deer.

perkdog

See this is where the baseball stat geeks fail to see value in a guy like Ryan Howard. Saying he was as good or just as good as Richie sexson or rob deer is foolish. Howard got those RBI numbers because he performed when men were on base that's what the they paid him to do where guys like sexson and deer would have failed. Skin no offense bro your one of my favorites here but I disagree with you respectfully

Skin2

Perk,

I agree, he did hit well with men on base those years. However, RBI are misleading because of the number of opportunities.

However, Win Probability Added shows exactly the value of each hit in all the men on base situations. The play by play doesn't lie


Howard's in those years I compared him to Sexson above were:
6.4
4.7
2.4
1.7

Sexson's were:
4
2.8
2.5
2.2
2.2

If you like RBI, then you have to LOVE Win Probability Added, because they go far deeper into the impact of how one hits with men on base, and are 1,000 times more accurate on measuring their value or their 'clutchness'


In the years where Howard was Rob Deer, his WPA was:
1.1
0.7
-0.2(this year, so not finished yet)

Rob Deer's totals were:
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.3


Edited for adding the wrong columns!!


So you have a point, it pushes him a hair above Sexsn and neck and neck with Deer...but illustrates the point that Howard simply isn't as good as many believe. Give me a little break though, I only spent about three minutes in my head looking for comparisons .

Skin2

....and now according to manager Ryne Sandberg, Howard will now platoon at first base.

I also predicted that coming. He can't hit lefties, and any manager worth their salt could simply neutralize Howard in any late inning situation by bringing in a left hander.

What will happen now is that his percentages(BA/OB/SLG) will get saved a little from him not being good enough to play everyday...so that may fool a lot of baseball fans(even statistical guys).

For the traditional fans...it means he will probably end up with less career home runs than Dave Kingman, despite playing in the live ball era, and hitting in more easier home run parks. LOL.

Also for the traditional fans who love RBI, he will fail to catch Luis Gonzalez(1,439) in career RBI, and probably fail to catch Chili Davis(1,372), Garrett Anderson(1,365), Carlos Lee(1,363), Gary Gaetti(1,342).

Howard is sitting at 993.

Not knocking those guys above, but just goes to show that Howard is much more like those guy, as opposed to the HOFer that many thought he was


We already know that the precise measurements have Howard ranked appropriately(which is not nearly as good as fans think)...but in the end, the traditional ones will too! lol.

perkdog

Skin, Howard didn't play his first full season until he was 26. Kinda unfair to compare him with those guys.

Also I admit I am a traditional, newspaper stats guy and I do love HR/RBI numbers

But even I know Howard is not even close to a HOF player, I also dont think he was worth the contract he was given either!

Bottom line a fun guy to watch with men on base if you can stomach horrific strikeout numbers

WinPitcher

Skip is finally right, took 6 years for it to happen...

;-)

Hey Skip!

CNote

I never understood the love affair with that fat slob. Honestly, after Philly gave him that contract (among several outrageous deals they gave), I knew he had one hell of an agent.

He never "deserved" a crazy contract. Put into perspective, he could be the recipient of THE worst contract in the last 10 years.

Skin2

Whats up Winpitcher!

For the record, I predicted the fall sometime in 2009, and for the next two years he began his morphing, and by 2012 he was full fledged Rob Deer. So only three years

The Philly GM should have listened to me instead of the guys like SteveK who were probably calling sportstalk radio and blowing him, lol.

Perk, we all grew up on the old newspaper stats...so they still have a place in my heart as well....and you are correct, hitting a double with the bases loaded is of more value than hitting one with nobody on, even if some statisticians don't look at it like that

lawnmowerman

Hiya Steve!

perkdog

<< <i>
Perk, we all grew up on the old newspaper stats...so they still have a place in my heart as well....and you are correct, hitting a double with the bases loaded is of more value than hitting one with nobody on, even if some statisticians don't look at it like that >>




See this right here is why your one of my favorite posters Skin, You get seriously tactical with stats and engage in banter with the best of them and still find away to relate to my level

grote15

Skin knows how to take the pocket protector and retainer out, LOL..

Skin2

<< <i>

<< <i>
Perk, we all grew up on the old newspaper stats...so they still have a place in my heart as well....and you are correct, hitting a double with the bases loaded is of more value than hitting one with nobody on, even if some statisticians don't look at it like that >>




See this right here is why your one of my favorite posters Skin, You get seriously tactical with stats and engage in banter with the best of them and still find away to relate to my level >>



Thanks Perk

...and I plan on several beers this weekend!

WinPitcher

As a Mets fan I am very happy the Phillies paid Howard what they did.


Hiya Matt. How's the lawnmower?


lol


PS Skip yeah you were spot on...