Which Running Backs WILL/WILL NOT make the HOF

PowderedH2O · May 12, 2014 4:54AM

In looking over the top running backs of all-time, there are a whole bunch of HOFers. But, there are a few that are not in because a) they aren't eligible or b) they haven't been elected yet. So here are the guys I'm talking about:

Tomlinson
Bettis
James
Taylor
Dillon
Dunn
Jackson
Watters
Lewis
Jones
Barber
George
Anderson
Peterson
Williams
Gore
Portis

OK, so I would say it is a slam dunk that LT gets in probably first ballot. I think it is a safe assumption that Jerome Bettis will eventually get in at some point (or maybe it isn't such a safe assumption, since Tim Brown is still waiting to get in). But what about the rest of the guys? Adrian Peterson is already over 10,000 yards and it seems that he's been so dominant that he's getting really close to the LT range of being a slam dunk. I'd say that Ricky Williams, Clinton Portis, Tiki Barber, Eddie George, Jamal Lewis, and Thomas Jones were just never so dominant over any stretch of time that they would be seriously considered. Frank Gore is close. Maybe another couple of solid years? Maybe a dominant playoff run might put him over the top? Ricky Watters was there. His personality might be what is keeping him out. Or am I overrating him? Fred Taylor, Warrick Dunn, Corey Dillon, and Steven Jackson all had excellent careers (with Jackson near the end) and rank in the all-time top twenty of NFL rushers. Have any of them done enough? What about the Edge? He led the league in rushing twice and is currently #11 all-time in rushing. Is that enough? His numbers say yes, but somehow when I think of him I don't feel it. What do you think? And what about Ottis Anderson? While he has been passed over numerous times, it seems like what he did at the time he did it should be enough to get him in. Any chance he sneaks in on a senior ballot, or do all of the gaudy numbers by the more recent backs make his chances nil? Any chance any of the other guys that are lower on the all-time list get in (Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, etc.)? Let me hear what you think.

lawnmowerman · May 12, 2014 6:52AM

Tomlinson yes
Bettis yes
James maybe
Taylor no
Dillon no
Dunn no
Jackson no
Watters maybe
Lewis no
Jones no
Barber no
George maybe
Anderson no
Peterson yes
Williams no
Gore maybe
Portis no

GR · May 12, 2014 7:10AM

The above but I think Fred Taylor deserves a shot not based purely on numbers but for almost single handedly being a face of a franchise an all around good person and 10,000+ rushing yards

Justacommeman · May 12, 2014 10:15AM

Tomlinson and Bettis as of now

MJ

lightningboy · May 12, 2014 1:49PM

Peterson is as much, if not more so, a greater lock than Bettis already.

fiveniner · May 12, 2014 11:27PM

Peterson and Gore ,Thomlinson.

WhiteTornado · May 13, 2014 12:13AM

This is a great post. I tend to collect cards by player, and RBs are some of my favorites. Here is my take:

Tomlinson definitely
Bettis yes
James no, for reasons you cited. He has some good numbers, but not an overwhelming amount. I just dont feel it with him, same as you.
Taylor maybe some day, but not for a long time
Dillon no
Dunn no -- Hall of Very Good, as Peter King would say, but not HOF.
Jackson probably not, unless he surprises and adds another 2,000+ yards total before he's done.
Watters -- he should be. I think you are right, maybe his personality keeps him out. Maybe one day as a "senior" entry. I think he had a great career.
Lewis no
Jones no -- had his moments, but not enough of them.
Barber -- no way. Not even his being in the NY market will help him, IMO.
George maybe, kind of like a Fred Taylor
Anderson -- probably not, but maybe a "senior" selection some day.
Peterson -- practically a lock. The modern day Walter Payton, to me.
Williams no
Gore probably not, but maybe I am underestimating his achievements.
Portis no

I wonder if the pass-happy nature of today's NFL will allow some of those borderline guys like Eddie George and Fred Taylor to get in down the road. Maybe in hindsight, their achievements will seem larger than they currently do, if we see fewer and fewer "feature backs" for a long time.

jdip9 · May 13, 2014 3:21AM

I think LMM has pretty much nailed it, although I would make Gore a "no"....as far as the "maybes" go, I think Watters has the best chance.

lawnmowerman · May 13, 2014 7:39AM

<< I think LMM has pretty much nailed it, although I would make Gore a "no"....as far as the "maybes" go, I think Watters has the best chance. >>

Funny you say that about Gore. I almost did put down "no" for him but I'm banking on him having 2 or 3 more productive seasons to pad his stats.

PowderedH2O · May 13, 2014 7:56AM

<< I wonder if the pass-happy nature of today's NFL will allow some of those borderline guys like Eddie George and Fred Taylor to get in down the road. Maybe in hindsight, their achievements will seem larger than they currently do, if we see fewer and fewer "feature backs" for a long time. >>

I think this has already happened. A guy like Ken Willard (for example) retired as one of the top ten rushers of all-time. He was consistently one of the NFL's leading rushers, but never at the top. Then, offense exploded. A 1,000 yard season was suddenly not that big a deal. So, a guy like Willard looks like a mediocre back (which he certainly was not). If a back in today's NFL put up Ken Willard numbers, they'd barely get drafted for a fantasy team, much less become a star. If the league goes to an 18 game schedule, the numbers might go up even more. Then, guys that retired with 10,000 yards will just be guys like Ken Willard is now.

CNote · May 13, 2014 10:21AM

I think Tomlinson and Peterson are the locks of that list- even if Peterson pulled a Sanders, and quit.

Of all the others, I think George is most likely. Gore, would have to have a few more productive years- I don't know how many he can have with the style of football the West plays in now.

corncobb · May 13, 2014 7:38PM

Other than Peterson

None of the above

WhiteTornado · May 14, 2014 12:25AM

<< 

<< I wonder if the pass-happy nature of today's NFL will allow some of those borderline guys like Eddie George and Fred Taylor to get in down the road. Maybe in hindsight, their achievements will seem larger than they currently do, if we see fewer and fewer "feature backs" for a long time. >>

I think this has already happened. A guy like Ken Willard (for example) retired as one of the top ten rushers of all-time. He was consistently one of the NFL's leading rushers, but never at the top. Then, offense exploded. A 1,000 yard season was suddenly not that big a deal. So, a guy like Willard looks like a mediocre back (which he certainly was not). If a back in today's NFL put up Ken Willard numbers, they'd barely get drafted for a fantasy team, much less become a star. If the league goes to an 18 game schedule, the numbers might go up even more. Then, guys that retired with 10,000 yards will just be guys like Ken Willard is now. >>

That's a good point about number of games per season. When the league went from 14 regular season games to 16, getting 1,000 yards in a season wasn't as big of a deal anymore. Now it seems the threshold for a big season is about 1,200 yards. Then what will it be if (or maybe, when) they go to 18 regular season games, 1,400 yards?

At that point, it would seem the best hope for a lot of those 10,000 yard rushers will be getting picked in the senior selection process.

Cubby · May 15, 2014 5:34AM

I'll say LT, The Bus, AP, and Gore

perkdog · May 15, 2014 6:17AM

I personally dont think LT should get in, the guy just disapeared during playoff games and was a huge crybaby.

corncobb · May 15, 2014 5:38PM

<< I personally dont think LT should get in, the guy just disapeared during playoff games and was a huge crybaby. >>

+1 Lots of cosmetic yards, but never a serious threat to carry a team to a Chamionship.

grote15 · May 15, 2014 11:43PM

LT will get in, I'd be very surprised if he didn't.

bigdcards · May 16, 2014 5:00PM

You must be bored if you are coming up with reasons LT won't get in. It's a done deal. All Day is a lock too. He needs to really mess up to avoid the hall at this point.

Burks · May 16, 2014 7:12PM

LT, Bettis, and AP. That's it from that list.

The rest had great careers, but not HOF careers IMO.

3BoyzTrading · May 18, 2014 2:55PM

Tomlinson,Easy
Bettis, Yes
James ,No
Taylor,No
Dillon,No
Dunn,No
Steven Jackson
Watters, No
Jamal Lewis No
Jones ?
Tiki Barber, No, shoulda stayed a few more years
Eddie George, No but he's a Heisman winner so it doesn't matter
Otis Anderson?, No
Adrian Peterson, No question
Williams No
Frank Gore,Not yet
Clinton Portis, No

ChiefsFan1st · May 18, 2014 8:50PM

<< I personally dont think LT should get in, the guy just disapeared during playoff games and was a huge crybaby. >>

I agree, but he will.

These 3 are locks
Tomlinson
Bettis
Peterson

Its been mentioned, the pass happy league is gonna make any running back with decent stats a contender for the hall.
I dont like it, but it is what it is

GONEBATS · May 19, 2014 2:38AM

3 Slam Dunks!
Tomlinson
Peterson
Bettis

Ottis Anderson belongs and has the Stats! SB MVP does not hurt! Senior nominee in the next decade?

Statman · May 19, 2014 3:12AM

I agree with most that LT, AP, and probably eventually Bettis will get in. But one guy I would not have even thought of being up on this list is Warrick Dunn. He's not a HOFer, but I was really surprised he was over 10,000 yards. Not somebody I think of when I think of all-time RBs.

WhiteTornado · May 19, 2014 4:18AM

<< I agree with most that LT, AP, and probably eventually Bettis will get in. But one guy I would not have even thought of being up on this list is Warrick Dunn. He's not a HOFer, but I was really surprised he was over 10,000 yards. Not somebody I think of when I think of all-time RBs. >>

I lived in Tampa when he played for the Bucs and he could be a very dynamic player when he was at his best. But, he's another I'd put in the Hall of Very Good, not the HOF.

lawnmowerman · May 19, 2014 12:27PM

<< 

<< I agree with most that LT, AP, and probably eventually Bettis will get in. But one guy I would not have even thought of being up on this list is Warrick Dunn. He's not a HOFer, but I was really surprised he was over 10,000 yards. Not somebody I think of when I think of all-time RBs. >>

I lived in Tampa when he played for the Bucs and he could be a very dynamic player when he was at his best. But, he's another I'd put in the Hall of Very Good, not the HOF. >>

Not to mention a super nice guy with a great heart.

cardbender · May 21, 2014 4:55PM

Two locks in my opinion:

LT
Peterson

The rest are very, very good to great RB's, but none jump off the page as HOF'ers.

Then again all would make the HOF down the road if the same criteria is used to put guys like Floyd Little and
other position players in like Charlie Sanders at TE.

lawnmowerman · May 22, 2014 10:53AM

LT has made one hof so far:

link

FavreFan1971 · May 27, 2014 5:44AM

Tomlinson - Lock
Bettis His personality not his stats will get him in. When he gets in he will have the 2nd lowest avg per carry of any HOF. He was just forced fed the ball.
James - All Decade team won't be enough for him. What really hurts him is the year he left Indy they won it all without him
Taylor - nope
Dillon - nope
Dunn - negative
Jackson - not a shot
Watters - If he acted like Bettis he would have been in a decade ago
Lewis - nope
Jones - not even close
Barber - quit too early
George - see Bettis comments above on stats. 3.6 yds per carry. EWWWW
Anderson - sadly even the senior committee cant get him in
Peterson - More of a lock than LT
Williams - nope
Gore - nope, always the step below greatness every year.
Portis - Nope

PowderedH2O · April 9, 2015 5:01AM

I posted this about a year ago. Since then Jerome Bettis has been selected for the HOF. Most believed Peterson was a lock for the HOF. What about now? What if he never plays again? If he does play, does his legacy keep him out?

orioles93 · April 9, 2015 6:25AM

<< I posted this about a year ago. Since then Jerome Bettis has been selected for the HOF. Most believed Peterson was a lock for the HOF. What about now? What if he never plays again? If he does play, does his legacy keep him out? >>

Nothing has changed for me. He is still a hall of famer.

vintagefun · April 9, 2015 8:10AM

Not a shred of love for Roger Craig? Didn't even make the list. He's on the ballot, though only a few more tries...

He totaled over 13k from scrimmage (rush+rec) and averaged over 4yd/carry for career. First 1000/1000 player. 73 TDs. 3x SB Champ. 4 time ProBowl. AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year (88), UPI NFC Player of the Year (88), and one of the few members of the All-Decade team not yet enshrined.

I'm the furthest thing from a 49ers fan, but I hope he gets in alongside his teammates, as he was an integral part of a stellar offense.

seebelow · April 10, 2015 12:13AM

Bettis..."his personality not his stats will get him in" When he retired he was 4th or 5th on the all time rushing list and a Super Bowl trophy. Those two must count for something.

perkdog · April 10, 2015 6:17AM

I think Peterson and Bettis should be HOF'ers

I know Im going to get flak for this but Im against LT getting inducted, the guy litterally disapeared every time the Bolts made the playoffs!

FavreFan1971 · April 14, 2015 4:39AM

<< Bettis..."his personality not his stats will get him in" When he retired he was 4th or 5th on the all time rushing list and a Super Bowl trophy. Those two must count for something. >>

I still stand by this statement. Bettis is overrated just like Floyd Little is. If he deserved enshrinement it should have been a huge wait like Tim Brown.

Largentcollector · April 14, 2015 5:39AM

I want to add Marshawn Lynch as a future HOF'er. Plays another two years he is a lock.

Regular season

8700 rush yards 4.3 ave
80 Td Rush/rec
1900 rec yards

10600 total yards rush/rec
Plus great blocker.

Playoffs

10 games
917 rush yards 4.9 ave
112 rec yards
9 td's ( should have been 10)
1030 total yards

And always comes up hudge in big games! No RB in the league is as fun to watch.

Tabe · April 14, 2015 10:11AM

<< Bettis..."his personality not his stats will get him in" When he retired he was 4th or 5th on the all time rushing list and a Super Bowl trophy. Those two must count for something. >>

The guy is 201st all-time in yards per carry, never topping 5 yards in a single season, finishing at 3.9. He was good, a workhorse, but I wouldn't say great.

perkdog · April 16, 2015 8:38AM

<< I want to add Marshawn Lynch as a future HOF'er. Plays another two years he is a lock.

Regular season

8700 rush yards 4.3 ave
80 Td Rush/rec
1900 rec yards

10600 total yards rush/rec
Plus great blocker.

Playoffs

10 games
917 rush yards 4.9 ave
112 rec yards
9 td's ( should have been 10)
1030 total yards

And always comes up hudge in big games! No RB in the league is as fun to watch. >>

He doesnt have the Rushing yards just yet, plus this moron is talking crazy AGAIN about walking away. If he walks-which I highly doubt then no chance, if he decides to act somewhat normal and play another few years and is productive then he should get in at some point. Either way definately a great RB to watch and one of the toughest to get down..

JoeBanzai · April 16, 2015 9:16AM

<< Most believed Peterson was a lock for the HOF. What about now? What if he never plays again? If he does play, does his legacy keep him out? >>

He will play. If he has two or three more very good to great seasons, he will get consideration for best of all time. I think his legacy will fade as long as he doesn't do anything else incredibly stupid.

I think he should honor his contract and play for the Vikings, but who knows what this guy will do. He doesn't seem to be the sharpest knife in the drawer.

WhiteTornado · April 17, 2015 12:40AM

<< I know Im going to get flak for this but Im against LT getting inducted, the guy litterally disapeared every time the Bolts made the playoffs! >>

But was that him underperforming or the defense simply keying against him, figuring the passing game wouldn't hurt them? I'm going to say it was the latter.

perkdog · April 17, 2015 12:50AM

<< 

<< I know Im going to get flak for this but Im against LT getting inducted, the guy litterally disapeared every time the Bolts made the playoffs! >>

But was that him underperforming or the defense simply keying against him, figuring the passing game wouldn't hurt them? I'm going to say it was the latter. >>

Well how many games did he just stand on the sideline in full uniform with some type of injury? He didnt even play much and when he did his numbers were nothing compared to his regular season, I will say it was a combination of injury, underperforming and defenses but the bottom line is he didnt do much regardless and I have a hard time calling him a HOF'er, but I guess players are not judged by playoff numbers so he will probably get in as His regular Season numbers are great

FavreFan1971 · April 17, 2015 2:33AM

Tomlinson is lock for the HOF. First ballot is my guess. Being a Patriot fan Perkdog has those playoff games etched in his head. You have to remember back in '07 Tomlinson got hurt in the Colts playoff game prior to the AFC Championship against the Patriots. The guy mashed up his knee something nasty the week before and could not recover. If you remember those two carries he had he was tentative to a fault and he needed to come out. I remember the announcers calling him out and soft. That was crap in my opinion. The image of him sitting on the bench is in every football fans memory, which sucks for him.

In 2008 he tore his groin the week before the wildcard playoffs. He played a bit in that game which he scored a TD but sat out the second half and did not play against the Steelers in the next round that SD lost. Again, he was hurt. There is a patter forming here ;-)

In 2008 and 2009 his play was starting to decline and he was getting hurt more and more which led to lesser carries in the regular season. And his O-line in 2009 was screwed with constant injuries. So, you can't put all of the blame for his crap 2009 playoff game against the Jets. To the best of my knowledge he was at full strength this game and played like crap.

In 2010 he joined the Jets and it was known he was going to split time so his numbers of course dropped but against the Colts and Patriots I thought he played well even though he had less carries than Shonn Greene. He was the guy out of the backfield for screens and scored against the Patriots.

Why do I know all of this, because I signed him to a lifetime contract in my Fantasy league his 2nd year in the league and we run into the playoffs for an added bonus payout. I did need a little help from Profootballreference.com

Long story short, Tomlinson is a lock for the HOF and I am guessing a first ballot guy.

perkdog · April 17, 2015 2:54AM

<< Tomlinson is lock for the HOF. First ballot is my guess. Being a Patriot fan Perkdog has those playoff games etched in his head. You have to remember back in '07 Tomlinson got hurt in the Colts playoff game prior to the AFC Championship against the Patriots. The guy mashed up his knee something nasty the week before and could not recover. If you remember those two carries he had he was tentative to a fault and he needed to come out. I remember the announcers calling him out and soft. That was crap in my opinion. The image of him sitting on the bench is in every football fans memory, which sucks for him.

In 2008 he tore his groin the week before the wildcard playoffs. He played a bit in that game which he scored a TD but sat out the second half and did not play against the Steelers in the next round that SD lost. Again, he was hurt. There is a patter forming here ;-)

In 2008 and 2009 his play was starting to decline and he was getting hurt more and more which led to lesser carries in the regular season. And his O-line in 2009 was screwed with constant injuries. So, you can't put all of the blame for his crap 2009 playoff game against the Jets. To the best of my knowledge he was at full strength this game and played like crap.

In 2010 he joined the Jets and it was known he was going to split time so his numbers of course dropped but against the Colts and Patriots I thought he played well even though he had less carries than Shonn Greene. He was the guy out of the backfield for screens and scored against the Patriots.

Why do I know all of this, because I signed him to a lifetime contract in my Fantasy league his 2nd year in the league and we run into the playoffs for an added bonus payout. I did need a little help from Profootballreference.com

Long story short, Tomlinson is a lock for the HOF and I am guessing a first ballot guy. >>

Good points, again I know his regular season numbers almost lock him in for a first ballot.

WhiteTornado · April 17, 2015 3:24AM

Troy has obviously followed him more closely than I have, and I'm a fan, too. Good analysis. Also, it is not "supposed" to matter, but I have to think LT's exposure in New York with the Jets and also on TV now helps his case.

Which Running Backs WILL/WILL NOT make the HOF

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