THREAD TO DISCUSS THOUGHTS ABOUT BOARD BID BREAK EFFORT - TRYING TO KEEP MAIN THREAD UNCLUTTERED
70ToppsFanatic
Posts: 2,106 ✭✭✭✭
All,
Starting this thread to allow for discussion about our partly successful collaboration in the MLI auction so that
we don't clutter up the main thread (which I need to stay clean for payment tracking and status info).
Let me first start by thanking everyone who was involved in the original discussions about the pros and cons
of this effort. You all contributed to help shape a concept into something that could actually be executed.
Second, many thanks to Mike and Tim for their assistance in executing the plan. It could not have been done
without their thoughtful input and well thought out ideas about strategy.
Lastly, many thanks to Steve Hart and his team over at BBCE for facilitating the logistics of this effort. It makes
the whole thing much easier and much more credible when you have it associated with the unchallenged leader
in this segment of the hobby.
My initial thoughts about our results is that I am really pleased that we won a lot that could be shared by so many
people. It would have been a much bigger let-down if we had only won a lot with some loose vending boxes.
In terms of the prices, I have to admit to being floored by some of the results. Over $2k per box for 1976 vending
is unbelieveable (although watch Fritsch now raise their prices from the current $1250, which was already too high).
We were the underbidder on both the 1978 cellos and the 1979 vending. Both got late bumps that beat out our max
bids. Once the 1979 rack case passed $123/rack we had to let it go. The 1977 vending case looked a bit more promising
(wax only in the $14k range until around 4PM Saturday leaving 7 bid increments for us to get a shot in the extended bidding),
but then it was suddeny run up to $21k and we were toast. We didn't fill the 1977 loos vending lot in time to get a bid in. By the time it
was taken it was already at our max bid.
Bid strategy was pretty simple. As soon as a lot was fully requested and it was still under our max bid we submitted the next bid increment.
If that increment was 1 increment below our max then we also submitted out max as the limit (in effect covering 2 bids). That is how we
ended up winning the 1975 lot (we also had the $11094 increment covered by our limit, but we won at $10594).
As promised, we tried to be realistic but not insane in setting the bid levels. When you see 1979 racks going on Ebay for $95-$105 each (and a
full box recently selling for $1881 or $78/rack at the end of March) you just cant justify $150+/rack on the lot. We gave it a good premium (to
$123/rack), but were not going to leave everyone here on the hook at outrageous levels. Also, when you consider that there were 30-40 of
use who requested racks, it made it a bit easier to put a higher premium on the bid. If we wanted the bid to be $1000 higher, it meant that
each person would only be bearing $25-$33 of that cost. That's a lot different than coming up with $1000 on your own. So I think there was
a bit of an advantage in this way. We could make the bid slightly higher than if it was only Tim, myself or Mike bidding individually.
So I encourage everyone to share thoughts on this here, so that the next time an opportunity arises we can improve on this effort and again
share in the rush (and hopefully the win).
Starting this thread to allow for discussion about our partly successful collaboration in the MLI auction so that
we don't clutter up the main thread (which I need to stay clean for payment tracking and status info).
Let me first start by thanking everyone who was involved in the original discussions about the pros and cons
of this effort. You all contributed to help shape a concept into something that could actually be executed.
Second, many thanks to Mike and Tim for their assistance in executing the plan. It could not have been done
without their thoughtful input and well thought out ideas about strategy.
Lastly, many thanks to Steve Hart and his team over at BBCE for facilitating the logistics of this effort. It makes
the whole thing much easier and much more credible when you have it associated with the unchallenged leader
in this segment of the hobby.
My initial thoughts about our results is that I am really pleased that we won a lot that could be shared by so many
people. It would have been a much bigger let-down if we had only won a lot with some loose vending boxes.
In terms of the prices, I have to admit to being floored by some of the results. Over $2k per box for 1976 vending
is unbelieveable (although watch Fritsch now raise their prices from the current $1250, which was already too high).
We were the underbidder on both the 1978 cellos and the 1979 vending. Both got late bumps that beat out our max
bids. Once the 1979 rack case passed $123/rack we had to let it go. The 1977 vending case looked a bit more promising
(wax only in the $14k range until around 4PM Saturday leaving 7 bid increments for us to get a shot in the extended bidding),
but then it was suddeny run up to $21k and we were toast. We didn't fill the 1977 loos vending lot in time to get a bid in. By the time it
was taken it was already at our max bid.
Bid strategy was pretty simple. As soon as a lot was fully requested and it was still under our max bid we submitted the next bid increment.
If that increment was 1 increment below our max then we also submitted out max as the limit (in effect covering 2 bids). That is how we
ended up winning the 1975 lot (we also had the $11094 increment covered by our limit, but we won at $10594).
As promised, we tried to be realistic but not insane in setting the bid levels. When you see 1979 racks going on Ebay for $95-$105 each (and a
full box recently selling for $1881 or $78/rack at the end of March) you just cant justify $150+/rack on the lot. We gave it a good premium (to
$123/rack), but were not going to leave everyone here on the hook at outrageous levels. Also, when you consider that there were 30-40 of
use who requested racks, it made it a bit easier to put a higher premium on the bid. If we wanted the bid to be $1000 higher, it meant that
each person would only be bearing $25-$33 of that cost. That's a lot different than coming up with $1000 on your own. So I think there was
a bit of an advantage in this way. We could make the bid slightly higher than if it was only Tim, myself or Mike bidding individually.
So I encourage everyone to share thoughts on this here, so that the next time an opportunity arises we can improve on this effort and again
share in the rush (and hopefully the win).
Dave
0
Comments
Its hard to believe at some of those ending prices, but this is what its come down to. I picked up 3 loose 79 racks about 2 years ago for a total of 100 for all 3! One of which has a Rod Carew showing on back. Im happy to report that I had them all inspected and wrapped by Steve and his crew.
Back on topic, I think that everything seemed to have executed the way you guys set out to do, but came up short on most (which is ok) since the prices on some were waaay out there.
My thoughts are maybe next time stay away from the loose vending as Steve will not authenticate them unless from a sealed case. Unless maybe if the boxes that are loose are already wrapped from previous purchases.
Also thanks again Dave for opening up your sealed box from the auction for more people to get in that missed out on other items, very nice of you!!
glad to see you guys got a win.
i'd have to agree that our group break days seem quite obviously numbered, so this looks like the future for anything with potential.
There was no way this group was going to out bid someone who had to have some of this stuff at any cost. And not only would you run into the problem of simply overpaying, you would also run into a problem of people not honoring their requests...people not paying for their lots. I think >$150 on the 1979 racks plus shipping and so forth would have created that issue.
Thanks again for everything; this was nothing short of awesome.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
<< <i>I wouldn't change a thing moving forward. I've been on the boards for two years now, and this was by far my favorite break. Dave, you're a gentleman and a scholar for putting this together, and the two guys by your side were the right ones. Super duper excited for those who won mini packs, and I hope a colossal rip thread ensues.
Thanks again for everything; this was nothing short of awesome. >>
+1 Thanks guys!!
Brian
<< <i>
<< <i>I wouldn't change a thing moving forward. I've been on the boards for two years now, and this was by far my favorite break. Dave, you're a gentleman and a scholar for putting this together, and the two guys by your side were the right ones. Super duper excited for those who won mini packs, and I hope a colossal rip thread ensues.
Thanks again for everything; this was nothing short of awesome. >>
+1 Thanks guys!!
Brian >>
You're very welcome. The entire process was very enjoyable and exciting, too, and Dave did a terrific job keeping track of all the reservations, too. Looking forward to next time!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Jmaciu's Collection
Thanks for helping me land a couple of 75 mini's at a solid price, and not paying 1.4K (or whatever it ended at) of my money for a 77 vending box. I appreciate it.
p.s - considering I just sold a VERY high grade raw 77 set for 190 bucks, it is astonishing what someone is willing to pay for this material unopened. For that price you could easily buy the top 8 cards in the set in psa 9 and the rest nm/mt raw, so I for one am glad to not be on the hook for a vending box at the level it sold at. Just my 2 cents.
Jeff
Collecting:
post world war II HOF rookie
76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars
Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals)
successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
<< <i>I must be an idiot because I have not been able to understand any of what's going on. >>
There were a number of late 1970s unopened lots in the Memroy Lane auction. I suggested that we try to bid on them collectively, since
we have not been able to do our normal group rips buying product directly from BBCE (because they haven't had very much for a long time).
After discussing the idea in a separate thread, a whole bunch of good questions and comments were made that led to transofrming the
concept into an executeable plan.
With the help of grote15 (Tim) and cpamike (Mike), the three of us worked out what we felt would be competitive bids for each lot. We then
asked people to reserve packs/boxes from each lot by posting to the main thread (the one that shows who asked for which items), and as soon
as we had "filled" a lot I submitted a bid on it on behalf of our group (as long as the existing bid was not higher than our maximum).
Bottom line is we won a lot of 5 1975 Topps BB wax boxes.
We worked out a deal with BBCE to administer distributing the packs and that is where we are up to now.
Does that help?
Dave
<< <i>Yes it does. So people signed up for slots, not knowing what they'd end up paying? >>
There certainly was a need to have some trust in the knowledge and experience of those of us who prepared the bids.
However, it was certainly also the situation that if we got too crazy then everyone could have backed out and I would
have been legally responsible to personally cover any winning bids with the auction house.
However, by assembling a group of members from our community who are well respected, trusted and who always
seem to have valueable knowledge of the unopened market it probably wasn't too far a reach for those who signed
on to feel comfortable that we weren't going to do something outrageous.
Then, running it as transparently as possible and trying to keep everyone abreast of as much as we possibly could also
helped ease people's fears.
In the end, it worked out pretty well. The lot we won was purchased at slightly BELOW the current market price.
Dave
<< <i>How much is it costing in the end per 1975 mini wax pack? >>
About $70 a pack plus shipping.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>How much is it costing in the end per 1975 mini wax pack? >>
We're still getting the shipping and transaction costs together (I'll have them out tomorrow once I speak to
Steve and the auction house), but it's going to be on the order of $75 per pack.
Coincdentally, BBCE's current price for an 1975 Topps BB Mini pack listed on their website is $75 + shipping (so as Tim pointed out
we are probably a little less than current market price on ours).
Dave
Congratulations Guys
LMK if that sounds like something you guys would be interested in.
Congrats on the unopened prices as they were strong to say the least.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
I didn't want to give anything away, but for the guys that know me well I am not an overly aggressive bidder so it took me a little out of my comfort zone to come up with bids that were competitive. In the final analysis, I think we came up with bids that at least gave us a shot and we almost won on another two of those lots besides those 1975 mini's. All in all, I think it was a good effort and I look forward to giving it another shot in the future.
Btw, I really wanted that 1979 Topps Baseball Rack Case too, but I'm glad we didn't go to bizarro world on it.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>Henry, that is a trick question, right?
+1
Thx for your patience.
Dave
Dave, Mike, Tim and whoever else was involved in putting together......Kudos. That was a ton of work. I know what is involved with the BBCE breaks but this one was on steroids. I am glad to see we can keep the breaks going and think this will be the future of breaks except for the very occasional BBCE break.
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
<< <i>Congrats to everyone who got packs.
Dave, Mike, Tim and whoever else was involved in putting together......Kudos. That was a ton of work. I know what is involved with the BBCE breaks but this one was on steroids. I am glad to see we can keep the breaks going and think this will be the future of breaks except for the very occasional BBCE break.
Mark >>
Mark,
You set the standard by which this effort had to measure-up to, and you will always be the king of group rips. You have no idea how much work that saved, and
provided guidance of how to avoid all of the potential pitfalls and concerns that had been worked through in past breaks.
Hopefully we have come upon an adaptable alternate model that we can use to broaden our ability to continue the tradition. And I am sure that we can tweak this
new approach to improve upon it.
Dave
Our deal this far is HECK YES I'm still on for 2400 bucks for a 1976 Topps Baseball vending box ! As long as that 1976 vending box will be sent to BBCE to re-authentcate I pay BBCE, and the box is sent from BBCE then all fine. I stated I will ask BBCE if the box seems to have been dropped or any other issue to where BBCE would not actually sell the box as a BBCE box.
Could still happen
<< <i>I may end up with a 1976 Vending box out of this. ! Bigfan5 has IM'd and we've been emailing back and forth. 2400 bucks ! He has a 1976 vending box that came from BBCE.
Our deal this far is HECK YES I'm still on for 2400 bucks for a 1976 Topps Baseball vending box ! As long as that 1976 vending box will be sent to BBCE to re-authentcate I pay BBCE, and the box is sent from BBCE then all fine. I stated I will ask BBCE if the box seems to have been dropped or any other issue to where BBCE would not actually sell the box as a BBCE box.
Could still happen
I've seen quantum physics formulas less convoluted than that arrangement..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I joined this on somewhat of a whim - not wanting to miss out on something cool, but also a little worried what I was getting myself into. I don't know any of you folks personally except from reading here, but I knew that getting in on this was not a truly risky proposition. I had faith that all of our collective best interests were being held. And I was correct. I gotta admit, I followed the prices towards the end and was thinking "they wouldn't, would they?" - go crazy high. But I felt they wouldn't. And they didn't.
I am just a small potatoes collector. But it is through reading on these boards that I have learned so much and have been able to enjoy my re-entry back into this hobby. I am glad I got a piece of this. I can't wait for the next one.
So thank you for letting me be a part of this. If I might offer up a suggestion, maybe next time give a range of prices reflecting current market value on such product in the lot, as a means of giving prospective joiners an idea. I don't know if that would be tipping our hand to any competition, but those of us signing up for slots might know what we are getting ourselves in for. Also - perhaps a Reader's Digest version of this bid-to-break would also help set the stage. Example: We were bidding on a lot of 75 minis. Going rate at the time was $x. We won the bid and paid $y. The 78 cellos were going for $x but was bid completely up to $y. Again - not knowing if this would show strategy or not, but just an idea.
Anyways - thanks again!!!
Topps/OPC Hockey 1966-Present base sets
But...any committee needs to decide if you are bidding to be competitive--like CPAmike says--or are bidding to win the items. IMO, in this day of crazy prices for vintage unopened, you cannot go into an auction with the "I want to be competitive bid"...you have to want to win it. And winning it nowadays will take a bid that is higher than being competitive. I am not saying that win at all costs is the answer. But with some of the prices I thought that we could have done better. Great that we won the '75 minis, but of all the lots I am thinking that is the last one we needed as there are so many mini boxes out there. In contrast, how many times will we get to bid on a sealed case of '79 racks?? or 4 boxes of '78 cellos??
Tim states that $150/rack is too crazy. Is it? For a completely sealed case? Had I not just purchased a new home I would have bought the case outright. And I do not think that you can look at past eBay sales to reflect what we should be bidding. Past eBay sales are not indicative of what the current state of unopened is because there are too many variables in eBay sales. Who is buying, who is selling, are they shilling, etc. Even VCP prices can be skewed. I have been buying vintage unopened for over 25 years. Buying when others thought the market was going to fall out, and when others thought that the bubble was ready to burst. It has not yet. Maybe it will in the near future but we are not there yet.
Mike says that he is a conservative bidder. You cannot be conservative in this market. You have to be aggressive if you want it. Of course if you think the bubble is about to burst then be a little more conservative. I for 1 do not think that it is. I am not sure where Tim and Dave stand in the conservative/aggressive bidding, but maybe we need a few more people on the committee who are aggressive bidders to balance out the conservative side in the future.
and yes I know we got beat out by late bidders--but there are also ways to minimize it so that it doesn't happen too.
Let me give some additional perspective on what was done.
The three of us went into this understanding that there was a sort of "collective safety" in over-bidding to some degree,
because we could spread the cost of any premium over a number of us instead of any individual bearing it all (e.g.
since an extra $1000 of bid on a lot is spread over 25-30 of us it only represented a difference of $25-$33 per person).
At the same time, there had to be some sense of sanity built into the effort. Getting something like this off the ground
really required a careful balance between following one's instinct and trying to do "right" by the group. It's was a big
ask of all of the participants to put their trust in a bid development team (whether it consisted of 3 of us or more). While
several of us have met each other at National and other events, the vast majority of people here know each other
only through board interactions and trading/transactions.
On the other side of this you also need to consider that as the "ring-leader" and person making the bids, I exposed myself
to a little bit of risk too. Imagine the position I'd be in personally if we pushed bids to the point that people started backing
out after we had won something. While I am sure that some would have offered to backfill for those who were withdrawing,
there was also a real possibility that I could be responsible and on the hook for paying ML for the winning bids without
enough people to share the cost.
I tend to be a pretty aggressive bidder, and even re-questioned out limits on the 1976 vending after it had passed our
chosen limit. But I think the majority of people here would agree that where that lot ended up (over $2k per box) was
insane (especially since the Fritsch published price for such a box is at $1250, and all of us feel that they are at the high
side in general).
For a first shot at it, I think that winning a lot and coming in as the underbidder on two others (out of a six lots) was actually
a pretty impressive outcome. And that's espeially true when you factor in/out that two of the lots were for sealed cases
which obviously carry a premium that we would have evicerated/destroyed by our actions of opening the cases if we had won.
Dig a little deeper on the 1979 rack case. Recent full box sales had been at $78-80/rack. Individual racks had been between
$85-$105. Out limit would have worked out to $123. That was probably about a 33% premium, which seemed pretty fair
when you factored in that as soon as we opened the case some of the intrinsic value was going to be automatically lost.
Another way that was suggested for coming up with bids was to let people post their requests to the thread and then send
me PMs with their max price they were willing to pay. Then I could just add up each person's totals and come up with a group
total for the lot to use as a bid. That would have allowed those who were more aggressive to bid higher, while those who were
conservative to stay lower. What I did not like about that is it would result in people paying different prices, and that could cause
all sorts of issues when some people saw themselves as "subsidizing" others who had offered a lower price. But maybe we
could try that approach for a lot if we do this again.
Anyway, please keep the ideas and discussion coming. The good news is that we have a successful model for doing this now that people
can point to. Nothing wrong with tweaking it at all, as long as it continues to instill trust and fairness to all participants.
Dave
Dave, well stated, and on point. You can never please everyone in an effort like this one, but if feedback is any indication, the strategy employed here was the right and responsible one.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Good job again guys.
<< <i>Interestingly enough BBCE just listed 1979 Topps racks for $150 a few minutes ago. >>
Not racks, wax trays.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.