<< <i>What is just as important is to discuss the other side of the balance sheer...ie spending . >>
Good points, Bidask.
In the 1970's retired folks spoke of spending the interest but never touching the principal. Inflation was near double digit so the erosion of the principal should certainly been factored in. Perhaps it did not matter though when one reached a certain age.
In 2014, many retirees are earning a paltry 1% or less on their savings. Difficult indeed to live on the interest only portion. Of course Septuagenarians have had the option of investing in historically high valuation equities, but of course that could have a very not happy ending.
<< <i>In the 1970's retired folks spoke of spending the interest but never touching the principal. >>
There are still people that prescribe to this (or some iteration of this). Seems most live in high income tax states (although not all) and are wanting to generate that tax free income to live off of.
<< <i>What is just as important is to discuss the other side of the balance sheer...ie spending . >>
Which in this interest rate enviroment leads to the above problem. Typically they exchange principal for interest (in the form of paying premiums for high coupon muni bonds). Then spend all the income that is generated, thus eroding their principal.
Looks like I deserve a couple of slices of humble pie, myself.
After my rant against MGLICKER for being so bearish on the stock market, there were two decent down days for the stock market, putting a couple of points on the board for the bearish team.
Hopefully, all of us can continue to learn from each other. I like to believe that virtually everyone has something to teach me, or show me, from the novice beginners, to those with decades of experience and wisdom. Cautiously bullish has been my stock market stance for a while, even more cautious when the calendar turned to May.
<< <i>Hopefully, all of us can continue to learn from each other. >>
Very good advice. The markets and the players and the rules of engagement change very rapidly. The closed minded investor often ends up in the poorhouse.
Safe investments of a generation ago can be financial traps today. To me the most important opinions are those that differ from my own. We do fall into a rut of believing what buttresses our current thoughts and discard ideas that fault our logic.
Thank you for the views from the professional side of the market, and keep them coming.
And this is exactly why the Fed isn't about to stop pumping money and devaluing the currency.
The problem gets more complicated when supply chains start being interrupted. The solution is to promote business and productivity, not to give away freebies until you are broke.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
""" median collection time for billings crawled up from 71.4 days to 90.42 days (the first time above 90 days). "It's a pretty loud warning bell," warns a Peking professor."""
Not good at all. In Michigan my largest customer's payment window crept from 75 to 90 days. They never got to 120 days as they went bust at the 90 day level.
An update, I mentioned some signs of a market top. These included: watch the transports--another new high on Monday. Another was to watch popular sentiment. The local stock market meeting only had 12 people in attendance, and the energy was subdued. If this was a true popular bubble, there might have been 100 people wanting to talk stocks.
A normal correction can happen at any time. I am only cautiously bullish, not jumping up and down bullish. However, from where I sit, a major market top is no where in sight. A crash or Japan-style debacle? Odds are extremely small, though anything is possible and investors must always be prepared just in case, the market tells them that they are wrong.
Just for fun and because of this thread I filled the following limit order this morning:
Buy 1 SPY June 14 188.0 put for 2.47. SPY is an exchange traded fund that mimics the S&P 500. The option gives me the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares at 188. The strike price of 188.0 is roughly 1/10 of the S&P 500 index amount. SPY was trading at 188.74 when I bought the put option. The trade cost 2.47X100=$247 + $8.65 commission for a total of $255.65.
If the S&P 500 goes down, the value of this option goes up. For example, the S&P is down since I placed this order and my option is now worth more. SPY is trading at 187.21 and the option is now priced at 3.35 per share. My daily "profit" is $88 less commissions.
I can sell this option at any time prior to expiration to lock in the gain. The most I can lose is the $255.65 plus the commission if I sell.
I will update the option value on this thread periodically to see how it does. If the market crashes, the rate of return on invested capital will be quite large. If the market continues to go up, I could be out around $250.
Here's to the end of the bull market
For any of you that are long in the stock market, this is a way to buy some "insurance" for a market crash without closing your long position.
WFM was a flop that many analysts got on board with-especially Jim Cramer. Was it a bit too soon to pronounce the bull market dead? Let's not forget that neither TSLA or TWTR is a component of the S&P 500. There is money to be made if you pick the right ones...like there will always be. But we aren't seeing the same gains we saw the past couple years.
Rite aid has been smoking hot, as have the airlines. If you bought into any of RAD, LUV, or DAL at least a month or two ago-you are doing very well. Transportation has taken the market by surprise this year. All 3 major pharmacy stores-CVS, WAG, and RAD have been up this year. But retail for groceries and, for lack of a better term, everything (think walmart), has been hit hard. Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma. Lots of your outcome in the stock market depends on luck if you don't buy into the S&P 500 with SPY or VOO.
<< <i>Rite aid has been smoking hot, as have the airlines. If you bought into any of RAD, LUV, or DAL at least a month or two ago-you are doing very well. Transportation has taken the market by surprise this year. All 3 major pharmacy stores-CVS, WAG, and RAD have been up this year. But retail for groceries and, for lack of a better term, everything (think walmart), has been hit hard. Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma. Lots of your outcome in the stock market depends on luck if you don't buy into the S&P 500 with SPY or VOO. >>
Many good and interesting points, coinrollhunter.
Good to see Rite Aid finally pull out of a two decade tailspin after the chairman nearly destroyed the operation. He spent about 8 years in the big house.
Drug chains have a captive market as most of the prescription sales are sold under some sort of coverage. May explain why they are doing well.
Regular B&M retailers are not performing well as the customers have to produce real money to shop there (15% of the grocery volume would be the exception). Certainly the online sellers have taken some wind out of their sales, but with incomes stagnant and prices rising, retail goods get squeezed the hardest.
The luxury sellers seem to be holding up well as the folks in the top 5% or so are still doing well, especially as they are benefitting most from the stock market rally.
For someone who has no allocation to the general stock market why would now be a good time for them to "get back in" with a 14 year expanding wedge (megaphone) showing on the DOW chart? That pattern has two fairly probable resolutions. It can break higher effectively doubling the DOW, or, it can break lower effectively halving the DOW. It will eventually break out. The last such obvious pattern that occurred was back in 1966-1973. After an 80+ year stock market rally (since 1932) is this megaphone pattern the logical booster to DOW 36,000? The volume has been in decline since 2010. You'd think the HFT's would have been able to drum up a boat load of volume in that time. Who knows, there may be a lot of rally left in this beast. The FED & Co. have gone on a wild shopping spree the past several years. No reason they can't keep on doing that to double up the DOW. It's hard to fathom a major game changer in the economy itself that on its own would produce 36,000 DOW in the next 5 years. Inflation is low (per CPI). Employment is at the best levels in years (per BLS). High end real estate, collectibles, and anything geared towards the top 5-10% of wage earners are at record price levels. What could go go wrong?
<< <i>For someone who has no allocation to the general stock market why would now be a good time for them to "get back in" with a 14 year expanding wedge (megaphone) showing on the DOW chart? >>
Same reason that housing was the only game in town in 2006. Prices can only go up!
"Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma."
Buying household goods from Williams Sonoma instead of Costco or Wall Mart? Really? I do not recall anything in the WS catalogs I get that resembles anything like the "household goods" Costco or Wall Mart sells. They appear to be totally different retail operations with different products.
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
<< <i>For someone who has no allocation to the general stock market why would now be a good time for them to "get back in" with a 14 year expanding wedge (megaphone) showing on the DOW chart? >>
Same reason that housing was the only game in town in 2006. Prices can only go up! >>
Can we apply the same logic to PMs in 2011? I kinda think there was a lot of bluster about fundamentals and the like at that time.
<< <i>For someone who has no allocation to the general stock market why would now be a good time for them to "get back in" with a 14 year expanding wedge (megaphone) showing on the DOW chart? >>
Same reason that housing was the only game in town in 2006. Prices can only go up! >>
Can we apply the same logic to PMs in 2011? I kinda think there was a lot of bluster about fundamentals and the like at that time. >>
Absolutely. Seems that we shift from one boom and bust to the next.
Expansive and selective monetary policy seems to be the root.
Seems that we shift from one boom and bust to the next.
Been like that or all 238 years of this country, yet the end has never come and each successive generation lives better than the last. We will survive another stock market crash, whether it is next week or next generation.
<< <i>"Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma."
Buying household goods from Williams Sonoma instead of Costco or Wall Mart? Really? I do not recall anything in the WS catalogs I get that resembles anything like the "household goods" Costco or Wall Mart sells. They appear to be totally different retail operations with different products. >>
Pots/pans/cookwear that is sold at WSM and COST. I have worked at Williams Sonoma and shopped at Costco...I have seen many of the same products at both stores. I shouldn't have to list them. You should simply accept this as a fact.
<< <i>Seems that we shift from one boom and bust to the next.
Been like that or all 238 years of this country, yet the end has never come and each successive generation lives better than the last. We will survive another stock market crash, whether it is next week or next generation. >>
I think the larger question is will we survive the Red-Invasion this time? The dumb-masses aren't as smart today as they were in previous battles. "What's a Cold War?" "Socialism is what we do on Facebook." "There's a point where you've made enough money."
In the past we knew communism and other isms-of-the-like were in direct conflict with Americanism. Today, it appears that the ideals of the former are embraced by our political elite over the latter. Capitalism is the new C-word. I hear terms like extraction-capitalism. In 2012 there was the "war on women." Now I see (on social media and int'l papers) a new war being waged, a war on capitalism.
Alarms bells went off in my head in earnest about three years ago. My daughter, a junior in high school at the time, showed me her civics text book. First of all the book was riddled with no less than 15 large pictures of the "historical" 2008 election. I remember my civics book being written with perspective, a generation out, not current and swayed by the politics of the day. The chapter on the types of gov't was most alarming. It was Chapter 1 and in it the writer describes monarchies, oligarchies, democracies, republics, religious tyrannies with explanations I can get on board with, however, completely omitted was any print whatsoever on communism, Marxism, socialism, and social democracies! It's not taught...at all! But they do hear about how capitalism is the scourge of the Earth and how unfair it is to the worker and environment.
It's no wonder when a young college student was asked..."What is socialism?" that his answer referenced Facebook.
Our country will not survive another generation on this track.
<< <i>and each successive generation lives better than the last. >>
I think that we have gone backwards in the last 25 years. Takes two parents in most cases to support a family now.
Sure we have computers and IPhones and MLB on demand, but in the food, housing and transportation categories, the average man has fallen behind. >>
Remove the extra expenses like cable tv, internet, and cell phone then mom can stay at home eliminating day care, eating out, extra car payments, insurance, ect and at worse we would live the same. It costs more to live today because we choose to make it cost more.
It cost more today because we are paying a 20% medical care tax plus to cost of covering retirees and Medicaid and now ACA subsidies
It cost you more because you are older and need it more. In 1980, when you were 20, the cost of insurance would be relatively the same, albeit inferior.
Ask your Congressman, since he is in the business of bigger Govt, why drugs in the US cost 100x more than they do in Egypt. We have high healthcare costs because we are willing to pay them. What do you think would happen to insurance premiums if everyone said "we aint gonna pay no more"? We allow higher costs.
<< <i>"Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma."
Buying household goods from Williams Sonoma instead of Costco or Wall Mart? Really? I do not recall anything in the WS catalogs I get that resembles anything like the "household goods" Costco or Wall Mart sells. They appear to be totally different retail operations with different products. >>
<< <i>Just for fun and because of this thread I filled the following limit order this morning:
Buy 1 SPY June 14 188.0 put for 2.47. SPY is an exchange traded fund that mimics the S&P 500. The option gives me the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares at 188. The strike price of 188.0 is roughly 1/10 of the S&P 500 index amount. SPY was trading at 188.74 when I bought the put option. The trade cost 2.47X100=$247 + $8.65 commission for a total of $255.65.
If the S&P 500 goes down, the value of this option goes up. For example, the S&P is down since I placed this order and my option is now worth more. SPY is trading at 187.21 and the option is now priced at 3.35 per share. My daily "profit" is $88 less commissions.
I can sell this option at any time prior to expiration to lock in the gain. The most I can lose is the $255.65 plus the commission if I sell.
I will update the option value on this thread periodically to see how it does. If the market crashes, the rate of return on invested capital will be quite large. If the market continues to go up, I could be out around $250.
Here's to the end of the bull market
For any of you that are long in the stock market, this is a way to buy some "insurance" for a market crash without closing your long position. >>
Update:
SPY is trading at 192.37 and the option is priced at .81 a share. I am down $166 with a little over 2 weeks to go. Where's that crash?
<< <i>"Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma."
Buying household goods from Williams Sonoma instead of Costco or Wall Mart? Really? I do not recall anything in the WS catalogs I get that resembles anything like the "household goods" Costco or Wall Mart sells. They appear to be totally different retail operations with different products. >>
I am far from an expert here but I recall reading and hearing a few years ago that while certain products carry the same brand name and appear the same, they are in fact different. Supposedly Costco, with their buying power go to major producers and say make us ones but cheaper. The producers utilize inferior ingrediants or components that are far from detectable by the average Joe, myself included. All pots and pans, all TVs or what ever are not the same....some have minor product code differences to comply with laws etc. Plus, Costco makes a lot of their profit up front with there annual membership fees. You can freely walk into any Williams-Sonoma store but not Costco....you have to pay an annual membership fee first. It may look like you are comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges but you are not. Don't misinterpret my feelings here...I pay for Costco membership and love shopping there regularly. But, often, reality is not what we perceive it to be. Same brands sure, but different quality products. Not sure it makes a practical difference but they are not the same. Plus, some of your links do not work correctly! Best.
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
Hey Bidask, take a look at my pick on this investment selection thread. I did not go long gold or silver, I went short Amazon. I didn't make the pick out of my hiney. This reflects a real trade I made a bit before the first of the year and though now closed, was quite profitable. I shorted a few other retailers and have done quite well on these non traditional trades.
Not being long in the stock market does not mean one is not participating.
<< <i>It cost more today because we are paying a 20% medical care tax plus to cost of covering retirees and Medicaid and now ACA subsidies
It cost you more because you are older and need it more. In 1980, when you were 20, the cost of insurance would be relatively the same, albeit inferior. >>
Costs me nothing as I have not joined the ACA and have not visited an MD since 1980. Visits to the dentist and optometrist were paid out of pocket.
Getting back to my point though. Let's say that a 30 year old single woman (childless) takes a job at a typical decent sized corporation. As the employer cannot legal inquire as to marital status or dependents to be covered under the company plan, cost wise it will be averaged out with the rest of the employees. So though she only needs say $200 worth of coverage, her de facto contribution of lost compensation may be closer to $1000 per month. Now if you believe that it doesn't matter because the employer pays, then we have nothing more to discuss.
Hey Bidask, take a look at my pick on this investment selection thread. I did not go long gold or silver, I went short Amazon. I didn't make the pick out of my hiney. This reflects a real trade I made a bit before the first of the year and though now closed, was quite profitable. I shorted a few other retailers and have done quite well on these non traditional trades.
Not being long in the stock market does not mean one is not participating.
How is your portfolio doing YTD? >>
Up about 5%.....I had until very recently 65% of my liquid net worth allocated to stocks.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>"Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma."
Buying household goods from Williams Sonoma instead of Costco or Wall Mart? Really? I do not recall anything in the WS catalogs I get that resembles anything like the "household goods" Costco or Wall Mart sells. They appear to be totally different retail operations with different products. >>
I am far from an expert here but I recall reading and hearing a few years ago that while certain products carry the same brand name and appear the same, they are in fact different. Supposedly Costco, with their buying power go to major producers and say make us ones but cheaper. The producers utilize inferior ingrediants or components that are far from detectable by the average Joe, myself included. All pots and pans, all TVs or what ever are not the same....some have minor product code differences to comply with laws etc. Plus, Costco makes a lot of their profit up front with there annual membership fees. You can freely walk into any Williams-Sonoma store but not Costco....you have to pay an annual membership fee first. It may look like you are comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges but you are not. Don't misinterpret my feelings here...I pay for Costco membership and love shopping there regularly. But, often, reality is not what we perceive it to be. Same brands sure, but different quality products. Not sure it makes a practical difference but they are not the same. Plus, some of your links do not work correctly! Best. >>
The links in my post work fine. All 4. They are the same brands. You are grasping at straws here to try to be a contrarian.
<< <i>And why did you only quote 3 of my links? I put 4. >>
It was a malfunction of the CU server I believe. I simple clicked "reply" and answered and that is what happened. Also, when I clicked one or two of your links pages came up at Costco with like 40 items on it. No need to be paranoid...I am a friendly guy and like Costco as you do! Best!
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
<< <i>Seems that we shift from one boom and bust to the next.
Been like that or all 238 years of this country, yet the end has never come and each successive generation lives better than the last. We will survive another stock market crash, whether it is next week or next generation. >>
I think the larger question is will we survive the Red-Invasion this time? The dumb-masses aren't as smart today as they were in previous battles. "What's a Cold War?" "Socialism is what we do on Facebook." "There's a point where you've made enough money."
In the past we knew communism and other isms-of-the-like were in direct conflict with Americanism. Today, it appears that the ideals of the former are embraced by our political elite over the latter. Capitalism is the new C-word. I hear terms like extraction-capitalism. In 2012 there was the "war on women." Now I see (on social media and int'l papers) a new war being waged, a war on capitalism.
Alarms bells went off in my head in earnest about three years ago. My daughter, a junior in high school at the time, showed me her civics text book. First of all the book was riddled with no less than 15 large pictures of the "historical" 2008 election. I remember my civics book being written with perspective, a generation out, not current and swayed by the politics of the day. The chapter on the types of gov't was most alarming. It was Chapter 1 and in it the writer describes monarchies, oligarchies, democracies, republics, religious tyrannies with explanations I can get on board with, however, completely omitted was any print whatsoever on communism, Marxism, socialism, and social democracies! It's not taught...at all! But they do hear about how capitalism is the scourge of the Earth and how unfair it is to the worker and environment.
It's no wonder when a young college student was asked..."What is socialism?" that his answer referenced Facebook.
Our country will not survive another generation on this track.
This is the battle. >>
I agree with you about a populist war on capitalism being fought by the have nots, the needy and the left, but ask Maduro and Ali Khamenei,( who wouldn't consider FB socialist, but treasonous), and they will tell you the exact opposite. As usual it depends on your perspective.
I do consider my self a capitalist in the purist definition and I ironically see the beliefs of some gold bugs, anti-Fed and anti-bank types as anti capitalist not exactly the same way as socialist and populists, but anti capitalist never the less.
I do consider my self a capitalist in the purist definition and I ironically see the beliefs of some gold bugs, anti-Fed and anti-bank types as anti capitalist not exactly the same way as socialist and populists, but anti capitalist never the less.
Maybe it's just me.
Accountability would be a good thing, and I would advance the notion that a gold-linked monetary system might just provide some much-needed accountability.
We also need transparency, which just never happens. I assume that an audit of physical gold would always be much easier, more transparent and more verifiable than an audit of financial paper & electronic derivatives.
Whether true capitalism can exist or not - that's pretty much a theoretical question nowadays.
If accountability and transparency run contrary to capitalism, then I don't understand the concept very well.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
It's like roulette, ever watch how different people play roulette?
Some bet either red or black, the table minimum each spin, spin after spin, watching the pattern board. Some put a c note on their birthday for one spin and then walk away either a huge winner or (most likely) $100 poorer but had an experience with elevated heartrate. maybe they'll get some good sex later.
Some players bet one of the thirds, or cover clusters of numbers, or put a chip on every single space and stacks on a handful.
What do you do, in roulette and in the market(s)
I'm a bet 4 major asset classes guy and let the chips fall. If some stacks get tippy, I cash a few of those in. If some stacks get low, I might move some chips to them.
Real estate, rare coins/metal bullion, index funds, specific company stocks.
There was an article about the low VIX on that stock market site that can't be linked here (Market w*tch)
>> some thoughts from Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx For bears, the hallucination is that record high stock prices are solely the result of Federal Reserve easing, and that everything will fall apart when easing is gone, Colas said. For bulls, the hallucination is that economic growth with very little inflation is nearly guaranteed for the second half of the year.
While there may be a bit of truth in both, the “hallucination” is the part where the lack of market activity and movement is pushing investors to fill in the blanks >>
I have heard the incessant talk about the Fed and the stock market for a long time. That chatter was one factor that turned me from bearish to bullish in early 2013. One does wonder about the people smart enough to figure out that the Fed policy would inflate the stock market. Why not go all in, perhaps even leveraged long, and make out like bandits. I might not be that smart, but I do remember the old Marty Zweig cliches: * Don't fight the Fed * Don't fight the tape
HCHcoin, looks like your put purchase was an epic buy signal, the market bottomed the day of your post and has been rocketing higher ever since. Hopefully that is lunch money for you, but it would have been a NICE lunch at $250.
Comments
<< <i>What is just as important is to discuss the other side of the balance sheer...ie spending . >>
Good points, Bidask.
In the 1970's retired folks spoke of spending the interest but never touching the principal. Inflation was near double digit so the erosion of the principal should certainly been factored in. Perhaps it did not matter though when one reached a certain age.
In 2014, many retirees are earning a paltry 1% or less on their savings. Difficult indeed to live on the interest only portion. Of course Septuagenarians have had the option of investing in historically high valuation equities, but of course that could have a very not happy ending.
<< <i> Perhaps it is too late for you, perhaps you are too old, too thick headed to be open to learning from anyone else. >>
Perhaps.
<< <i>My guess is gold will take a plunge before the stock market, and I don't own any stocks >>
Only on the feverish sale of that new fangled "paper gold"
<< <i>In the 1970's retired folks spoke of spending the interest but never touching the principal. >>
There are still people that prescribe to this (or some iteration of this). Seems most live in high income tax states (although not all) and are wanting to generate that tax free income to live off of.
<< <i>What is just as important is to discuss the other side of the balance sheer...ie spending . >>
Which in this interest rate enviroment leads to the above problem. Typically they exchange principal for interest (in the form of paying premiums for high coupon muni bonds). Then spend all the income that is generated, thus eroding their principal.
After my rant against MGLICKER for being so bearish on the stock market, there were two decent down days for the stock market, putting a couple of points on the board for the bearish team.
Hopefully, all of us can continue to learn from each other. I like to believe that virtually everyone has something to teach me, or show me, from the novice beginners, to those with decades of experience and wisdom. Cautiously bullish has been my stock market stance for a while, even more cautious when the calendar turned to May.
<< <i>Hopefully, all of us can continue to learn from each other. >>
Very good advice. The markets and the players and the rules of engagement change very rapidly. The closed minded investor often ends up in the poorhouse.
Safe investments of a generation ago can be financial traps today. To me the most important opinions are those that differ from my own. We do fall into a rut of believing what buttresses our current thoughts and discard ideas that fault our logic.
Thank you for the views from the professional side of the market, and keep them coming.
What if this doesn't stop at China's borders?
And this is exactly why the Fed isn't about to stop pumping money and devaluing the currency.
The problem gets more complicated when supply chains start being interrupted. The solution is to promote business and productivity, not to give away freebies until you are broke.
I knew it would happen.
""" median collection time for billings crawled up from 71.4 days to 90.42 days (the first time above 90 days). "It's a pretty loud warning bell," warns a Peking professor."""
Not good at all. In Michigan my largest customer's payment window crept from 75 to 90 days. They never got to 120 days as they went bust at the 90 day level.
A normal correction can happen at any time. I am only cautiously bullish, not jumping up and down bullish. However, from where I sit, a major market top is no where in sight. A crash or Japan-style debacle? Odds are extremely small, though anything is possible and investors must always be prepared just in case, the market tells them that they are wrong.
<< <i> If this was a true popular bubble, there might have been 100 people wanting to talk stocks. >>
It is anything but a popular bubble. It is a Fed inflated bubble. No more, no less.
Buy 1 SPY June 14 188.0 put for 2.47. SPY is an exchange traded fund that mimics the S&P 500. The option gives me the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares at 188. The strike price of 188.0 is roughly 1/10 of the S&P 500 index amount. SPY was trading at 188.74 when I bought the put option. The trade cost 2.47X100=$247 + $8.65 commission for a total of $255.65.
If the S&P 500 goes down, the value of this option goes up. For example, the S&P is down since I placed this order and my option is now worth more. SPY is trading at 187.21 and the option is now priced at 3.35 per share. My daily "profit" is $88 less commissions.
I can sell this option at any time prior to expiration to lock in the gain. The most I can lose is the $255.65 plus the commission if I sell.
I will update the option value on this thread periodically to see how it does. If the market crashes, the rate of return on invested capital will be quite large. If the market continues to go up, I could be out around $250.
Here's to the end of the bull market
For any of you that are long in the stock market, this is a way to buy some "insurance" for a market crash without closing your long position.
Whole Foods, Sprouts, Wal-Mart, Target, Best Buy, JCP, Sears/Kmart all suffering.
DSW shoes took a 27% hit yesterday. If women are not buying shoes....retail could be in real trouble, seriously.
<< <i>Rite aid has been smoking hot, as have the airlines. If you bought into any of RAD, LUV, or DAL at least a month or two ago-you are doing very well. Transportation has taken the market by surprise this year. All 3 major pharmacy stores-CVS, WAG, and RAD have been up this year. But retail for groceries and, for lack of a better term, everything (think walmart), has been hit hard. Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma. Lots of your outcome in the stock market depends on luck if you don't buy into the S&P 500 with SPY or VOO. >>
Many good and interesting points, coinrollhunter.
Good to see Rite Aid finally pull out of a two decade tailspin after the chairman nearly destroyed the operation. He spent about 8 years in the big house.
Drug chains have a captive market as most of the prescription sales are sold under some sort of coverage. May explain why they are doing well.
Regular B&M retailers are not performing well as the customers have to produce real money to shop there (15% of the grocery volume would be the exception). Certainly the online sellers have taken some wind out of their sales, but with incomes stagnant and prices rising, retail goods get squeezed the hardest.
The luxury sellers seem to be holding up well as the folks in the top 5% or so are still doing well, especially as they are benefitting most from the stock market rally.
14 year Dow chart
<< <i>For someone who has no allocation to the general stock market why would now be a good time for them to "get back in" with a 14 year expanding wedge (megaphone) showing on the DOW chart? >>
Same reason that housing was the only game in town in 2006. Prices can only go up!
Buying household goods from Williams Sonoma instead of Costco or Wall Mart?
Really?
I do not recall anything in the WS catalogs I get that resembles anything like the "household goods" Costco or Wall Mart sells.
They appear to be totally different retail operations with different products.
<< <i>
<< <i>For someone who has no allocation to the general stock market why would now be a good time for them to "get back in" with a 14 year expanding wedge (megaphone) showing on the DOW chart? >>
Same reason that housing was the only game in town in 2006. Prices can only go up!
Can we apply the same logic to PMs in 2011? I kinda think there was a lot of bluster about fundamentals and the like at that time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>For someone who has no allocation to the general stock market why would now be a good time for them to "get back in" with a 14 year expanding wedge (megaphone) showing on the DOW chart? >>
Same reason that housing was the only game in town in 2006. Prices can only go up!
Can we apply the same logic to PMs in 2011? I kinda think there was a lot of bluster about fundamentals and the like at that time. >>
Absolutely. Seems that we shift from one boom and bust to the next.
Expansive and selective monetary policy seems to be the root.
Been like that or all 238 years of this country, yet the end has never come and each successive generation lives better than the last. We will survive another stock market crash, whether it is next week or next generation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>"Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma."
Buying household goods from Williams Sonoma instead of Costco or Wall Mart?
Really?
I do not recall anything in the WS catalogs I get that resembles anything like the "household goods" Costco or Wall Mart sells.
They appear to be totally different retail operations with different products. >>
Pots/pans/cookwear that is sold at WSM and COST. I have worked at Williams Sonoma and shopped at Costco...I have seen many of the same products at both stores. I shouldn't have to list them. You should simply accept this as a fact.
<< <i>and each successive generation lives better than the last. >>
I think that we have gone backwards in the last 25 years. Takes two parents in most cases to support a family now.
Sure we have computers and IPhones and MLB on demand, but in the food, housing and transportation categories, the average man has fallen behind.
<< <i>Seems that we shift from one boom and bust to the next.
Been like that or all 238 years of this country, yet the end has never come and each successive generation lives better than the last. We will survive another stock market crash, whether it is next week or next generation. >>
I think the larger question is will we survive the Red-Invasion this time? The dumb-masses aren't as smart today as they were in previous battles. "What's a Cold War?" "Socialism is what we do on Facebook." "There's a point where you've made enough money."
In the past we knew communism and other isms-of-the-like were in direct conflict with Americanism. Today, it appears that the ideals of the former are embraced by our political elite over the latter. Capitalism is the new C-word. I hear terms like extraction-capitalism. In 2012 there was the "war on women." Now I see (on social media and int'l papers) a new war being waged, a war on capitalism.
Alarms bells went off in my head in earnest about three years ago. My daughter, a junior in high school at the time, showed me her civics text book. First of all the book was riddled with no less than 15 large pictures of the "historical" 2008 election. I remember my civics book being written with perspective, a generation out, not current and swayed by the politics of the day. The chapter on the types of gov't was most alarming. It was Chapter 1 and in it the writer describes monarchies, oligarchies, democracies, republics, religious tyrannies with explanations I can get on board with, however, completely omitted was any print whatsoever on communism, Marxism, socialism, and social democracies! It's not taught...at all! But they do hear about how capitalism is the scourge of the Earth and how unfair it is to the worker and environment.
It's no wonder when a young college student was asked..."What is socialism?" that his answer referenced Facebook.
Our country will not survive another generation on this track.
This is the battle.
<< <i>
<< <i>and each successive generation lives better than the last. >>
I think that we have gone backwards in the last 25 years. Takes two parents in most cases to support a family now.
Sure we have computers and IPhones and MLB on demand, but in the food, housing and transportation categories, the average man has fallen behind. >>
Remove the extra expenses like cable tv, internet, and cell phone then mom can stay at home eliminating day care, eating out, extra car payments, insurance, ect and at worse we would live the same. It costs more to live today because we choose to make it cost more.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It costs more to live today because we choose to make it cost more. >>
It cost more today because we are paying a 20% medical care tax plus to cost of covering retirees and Medicaid and now ACA subsidies.
Easily a working man can contribute 35% of his gross pay package and not use a dimes worth of care.
It cost you more because you are older and need it more. In 1980, when you were 20, the cost of insurance would be relatively the same, albeit inferior.
Ask your Congressman, since he is in the business of bigger Govt, why drugs in the US cost 100x more than they do in Egypt. We have high healthcare costs because we are willing to pay them. What do you think would happen to insurance premiums if everyone said "we aint gonna pay no more"? We allow higher costs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>"Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma."
Buying household goods from Williams Sonoma instead of Costco or Wall Mart?
Really?
I do not recall anything in the WS catalogs I get that resembles anything like the "household goods" Costco or Wall Mart sells.
They appear to be totally different retail operations with different products. >>
le creuset at costco
le creuset at williams sonoma
vitamix at costco
vitamix at williams sonoma
Same brands, different stores.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Just for fun and because of this thread I filled the following limit order this morning:
Buy 1 SPY June 14 188.0 put for 2.47. SPY is an exchange traded fund that mimics the S&P 500. The option gives me the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares at 188. The strike price of 188.0 is roughly 1/10 of the S&P 500 index amount. SPY was trading at 188.74 when I bought the put option. The trade cost 2.47X100=$247 + $8.65 commission for a total of $255.65.
If the S&P 500 goes down, the value of this option goes up. For example, the S&P is down since I placed this order and my option is now worth more. SPY is trading at 187.21 and the option is now priced at 3.35 per share. My daily "profit" is $88 less commissions.
I can sell this option at any time prior to expiration to lock in the gain. The most I can lose is the $255.65 plus the commission if I sell.
I will update the option value on this thread periodically to see how it does. If the market crashes, the rate of return on invested capital will be quite large. If the market continues to go up, I could be out around $250.
Here's to the end of the bull market
For any of you that are long in the stock market, this is a way to buy some "insurance" for a market crash without closing your long position. >>
Update:
SPY is trading at 192.37 and the option is priced at .81 a share. I am down $166 with a little over 2 weeks to go. Where's that crash?
<< <i>
<< <i>"Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma."
Buying household goods from Williams Sonoma instead of Costco or Wall Mart?
Really?
I do not recall anything in the WS catalogs I get that resembles anything like the "household goods" Costco or Wall Mart sells.
They appear to be totally different retail operations with different products. >>
le creuset at costco
le creuset at williams sonoma
vitamix at costco
I am far from an expert here but I recall reading and hearing a few years ago that while certain products carry the same brand name and appear the same, they are in fact different. Supposedly Costco, with their buying power go to major producers and say make us ones but cheaper. The producers utilize inferior ingrediants or components that are far from detectable by the average Joe, myself included. All pots and pans, all TVs or what ever are not the same....some have minor product code differences to comply with laws etc.
Plus, Costco makes a lot of their profit up front with there annual membership fees.
You can freely walk into any Williams-Sonoma store but not Costco....you have to pay an annual membership fee first.
It may look like you are comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges but you are not.
Don't misinterpret my feelings here...I pay for Costco membership and love shopping there regularly.
But, often, reality is not what we perceive it to be.
Same brands sure, but different quality products. Not sure it makes a practical difference but they are not the same.
Plus, some of your links do not work correctly! Best.
<< <i>When MGllicker turns bullish I'm going to turn bearish
Text
Hey Bidask, take a look at my pick on this investment selection thread. I did not go long gold or silver, I went short Amazon. I didn't make the pick out of my hiney. This reflects a real trade I made a bit before the first of the year and though now closed, was quite profitable. I shorted a few other retailers and have done quite well on these non traditional trades.
Not being long in the stock market does not mean one is not participating.
How is your portfolio doing YTD?
Delayed double post.
<< <i>It cost more today because we are paying a 20% medical care tax plus to cost of covering retirees and Medicaid and now ACA subsidies
It cost you more because you are older and need it more. In 1980, when you were 20, the cost of insurance would be relatively the same, albeit inferior. >>
Costs me nothing as I have not joined the ACA and have not visited an MD since 1980. Visits to the dentist and optometrist were paid out of pocket.
Getting back to my point though. Let's say that a 30 year old single woman (childless) takes a job at a typical decent sized corporation. As the employer cannot legal inquire as to marital status or dependents to be covered under the company plan, cost wise it will be averaged out with the rest of the employees. So though she only needs say $200 worth of coverage, her de facto contribution of lost compensation may be closer to $1000 per month. Now if you believe that it doesn't matter because the employer pays, then we have nothing more to discuss.
<< <i>
<< <i>When MGllicker turns bullish I'm going to turn bearish
Text
Hey Bidask, take a look at my pick on this investment selection thread. I did not go long gold or silver, I went short Amazon. I didn't make the pick out of my hiney. This reflects a real trade I made a bit before the first of the year and though now closed, was quite profitable. I shorted a few other retailers and have done quite well on these non traditional trades.
Not being long in the stock market does not mean one is not participating.
How is your portfolio doing YTD? >>
Up about 5%.....I had until very recently 65% of my liquid net worth allocated to stocks.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>"Oddly enough, consumers haven't been buying their household goods for lower prices at costco or walmart, they have been buying them for 3x the price at Williams Sonoma."
Buying household goods from Williams Sonoma instead of Costco or Wall Mart?
Really?
I do not recall anything in the WS catalogs I get that resembles anything like the "household goods" Costco or Wall Mart sells.
They appear to be totally different retail operations with different products. >>
le creuset at costco
le creuset at williams sonoma
vitamix at costco
I am far from an expert here but I recall reading and hearing a few years ago that while certain products carry the same brand name and appear the same, they are in fact different. Supposedly Costco, with their buying power go to major producers and say make us ones but cheaper. The producers utilize inferior ingrediants or components that are far from detectable by the average Joe, myself included. All pots and pans, all TVs or what ever are not the same....some have minor product code differences to comply with laws etc.
Plus, Costco makes a lot of their profit up front with there annual membership fees.
You can freely walk into any Williams-Sonoma store but not Costco....you have to pay an annual membership fee first.
It may look like you are comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges but you are not.
Don't misinterpret my feelings here...I pay for Costco membership and love shopping there regularly.
But, often, reality is not what we perceive it to be.
Same brands sure, but different quality products. Not sure it makes a practical difference but they are not the same.
Plus, some of your links do not work correctly! Best. >>
The links in my post work fine. All 4. They are the same brands. You are grasping at straws here to try to be a contrarian.
<< <i>And why did you only quote 3 of my links? I put 4. >>
It was a malfunction of the CU server I believe.
I simple clicked "reply" and answered and that is what happened.
Also, when I clicked one or two of your links pages came up at Costco with like 40 items on it.
No need to be paranoid...I am a friendly guy and like Costco as you do!
Best!
<< <i>
<< <i>Seems that we shift from one boom and bust to the next.
Been like that or all 238 years of this country, yet the end has never come and each successive generation lives better than the last. We will survive another stock market crash, whether it is next week or next generation. >>
I think the larger question is will we survive the Red-Invasion this time? The dumb-masses aren't as smart today as they were in previous battles. "What's a Cold War?" "Socialism is what we do on Facebook." "There's a point where you've made enough money."
In the past we knew communism and other isms-of-the-like were in direct conflict with Americanism. Today, it appears that the ideals of the former are embraced by our political elite over the latter. Capitalism is the new C-word. I hear terms like extraction-capitalism. In 2012 there was the "war on women." Now I see (on social media and int'l papers) a new war being waged, a war on capitalism.
Alarms bells went off in my head in earnest about three years ago. My daughter, a junior in high school at the time, showed me her civics text book. First of all the book was riddled with no less than 15 large pictures of the "historical" 2008 election. I remember my civics book being written with perspective, a generation out, not current and swayed by the politics of the day. The chapter on the types of gov't was most alarming. It was Chapter 1 and in it the writer describes monarchies, oligarchies, democracies, republics, religious tyrannies with explanations I can get on board with, however, completely omitted was any print whatsoever on communism, Marxism, socialism, and social democracies! It's not taught...at all! But they do hear about how capitalism is the scourge of the Earth and how unfair it is to the worker and environment.
It's no wonder when a young college student was asked..."What is socialism?" that his answer referenced Facebook.
Our country will not survive another generation on this track.
This is the battle. >>
I agree with you about a populist war on capitalism being fought by the have nots, the needy and the left, but ask Maduro and Ali Khamenei,( who wouldn't consider FB socialist, but treasonous), and they will tell you the exact opposite. As usual it depends on your perspective.
I do consider my self a capitalist in the purist definition and I ironically see the beliefs of some gold bugs, anti-Fed and anti-bank types as anti capitalist not exactly the same way as socialist and populists, but anti capitalist never the less.
Maybe it's just me.
Maybe it's just me.
Accountability would be a good thing, and I would advance the notion that a gold-linked monetary system might just provide some much-needed accountability.
We also need transparency, which just never happens. I assume that an audit of physical gold would always be much easier, more transparent and more verifiable than an audit of financial paper & electronic derivatives.
Whether true capitalism can exist or not - that's pretty much a theoretical question nowadays.
If accountability and transparency run contrary to capitalism, then I don't understand the concept very well.
I knew it would happen.
Some bet either red or black, the table minimum each spin, spin after spin, watching the pattern board. Some put a c note on their birthday for one spin and then walk away either a huge winner or (most likely) $100 poorer but had an experience with elevated heartrate. maybe they'll get some good sex later.
Some players bet one of the thirds, or cover clusters of numbers, or put a chip on every single space and stacks on a handful.
What do you do, in roulette and in the market(s)
I'm a bet 4 major asset classes guy and let the chips fall. If some stacks get tippy, I cash a few of those in. If some stacks get low, I might move some chips to them.
Real estate, rare coins/metal bullion, index funds, specific company stocks.
Something's hot, something's cold, SSDD
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
>> some thoughts from Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx
For bears, the hallucination is that record high stock prices are solely the result of Federal Reserve easing, and that everything will fall apart when easing is gone, Colas said. For bulls, the hallucination is that economic growth with very little inflation is nearly guaranteed for the second half of the year.
While there may be a bit of truth in both, the “hallucination” is the part where the lack of market activity and movement is pushing investors to fill in the blanks
>>
I have heard the incessant talk about the Fed and the stock market for a long time. That chatter was one factor that turned me from bearish to bullish in early 2013. One does wonder about the people smart enough to figure out that the Fed policy would inflate the stock market. Why not go all in, perhaps even leveraged long, and make out like bandits. I might not be that smart, but I do remember the old Marty Zweig cliches:
* Don't fight the Fed
* Don't fight the tape
HCHcoin, looks like your put purchase was an epic buy signal, the market bottomed the day of your post and has been rocketing higher ever since. Hopefully that is lunch money for you, but it would have been a NICE lunch at $250.