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newbie questions on low POP

Hey guys,

I'm looking to get involved slowly but surely in order to help support my two girls, so any advice is highly appreciated. Mostly 80's baseball in case you're interested. Anyway, I've got some questions on low pop. So, if there is a card with only one grade (a 9 for example) and you post a 10 is it pop1? And is that because you have the better graded card or just that there is only one 10? How about if I get two 10's back on the same card, are they each pop1s or pop 2s, or now is it pop 3 for the card? Also, how to determine the value of have something like a 1989 Topps George Bell (card #1 with only a single 10) graded a 10? Do people just buy any card that is pop1/pop 2 and won't that opportunity evaporate in time? I'm personally surprised there is only 1 out there if this is the case? Thanks for any help figuring this out, I understand star cards but this baffles me. imageimage

Comments

  • WhiteTornadoWhiteTornado Posts: 2,175 ✭✭✭
    Welcome to the forum image

    Others with far more experience will chime in eventually, but I'll do my best. A "pop" means population per that grade. For example, with many modern cards, you could have a lot of PSA 10s and PSA 9s, but maybe no PSA 4s. If you happen to submit one that pops as a PSA 4, then it would be considered "pop 1 in PSA 4". Hope that clears it up.

    As far as your second question, keep in mind that some people buy PSA 10s even of minor stars or commons (even of checklist cards!) because they may be trying to assemble complete sets in PSA 10. A related reason would be to fill in a registry set.

    As far as low pop cards staying low pop, it all depends on the series. Some are tough to find in high grade raw, some may be from sets that still have a lot of unopened material lurking out there (and thus the opportunity for more high-grade examples to eventually pop), etc.

    Again, welcome, and I'm sure others will provide more detail than I can.
  • Hey man,

    Thanks for the reply - so I guess I'm left with how do I get hold of the registry and how to know what value those commons (and checklists) will bring?
  • Pop report is on the psa website
    VCP is your best bet to see prices
  • totallyraddtotallyradd Posts: 767 ✭✭✭
    so I guess I'm left with how do I get hold of the registry and how to know what value those commons (and checklists) will bring

    You can register whatever set you are building through psacard.com, it's free and it will keep track of where your set ranks among other collectors. They have a weight for each card and use that to help find an average. Say you are collecting 83 Topps. Tony Gywnn's card is weighted as 10 points, Cal Ripken is weighted as 4 points, while a common player is worth 1 point. Therefore, a high grade Gwynn will affect your overall grading much more than a high grade common. Does that make sense?

    As far as value on commons go, your best bet is shop eBay and auctions that have ended to get a good sense for those. You'll be amazed at how much some commons from the 70's go for because there is only one or two graded in a 10. I haven't noticed that with 80's cards yet, but I could be very wrong.

    Finally, don't let yourself get stuck in the registry drug. Once you get hooked on it, it's easy to want to constantly upgrade, when you get started, you'll understand what I mean. People can be obsessive over it. Collect what you can afford and enjoy. Just remember the golden rule of graded cards: Buy the card, not the grade. There might be a card that is graded an 8, but it's off center, while there is another 8 that is perfectly centered but has another reason for it being knocked down from a 10 or a 9. Go with the card you like better, personally I'd rather have a card that is centered rather than one with 4 perfect corners that's off tilt. But that's just my preference.

    Hope that helps!
  • Thanks again, helpful folks here..not personally looking to collect any more, just sell...have noticed commons go for 25-50 but others go un-purchased...if I were making a list of various brands/yrs, how would I know which low pop commons would be closer to a sure thing?
  • You'd just have to do your homework to see what is worth your time and effort. I'd say keep it to the 70's since even if you get 9's they can help recoup costs much easier than anything in the 80's. If you haven't graded cards before, I think you are seriously underestimating the difficulty of getting a 10, especially if you need a 10 to turn a profit. If that is the case, it might be a losing proposition to send in 50 1989 Topps baseball cards for grading.
  • it may seem that way, but I don't plan on sending in cards that aren't like those they describe as 10's on the psa page. That said, I'm not expecting even 40% success based on te results you guys have shared and hope to be pleasantly surprised. That said, I still don't exactly know how to research which commons/checklists would be a good risk. You can easily research star cards and their trends. I'd just like to know which pop 1s/2s/3s to even bother sending in...am guessing its not any/all. Thanks again image
  • DM23HOFDM23HOF Posts: 1,841 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you are talking exclusively about 1980s cards, I would not expect many (if any) of these to be or remain low pop. It is important to keep in mind that a card may appear to be rare or low pop based on the pop report data, but that would be specious reasoning, as the data belies the fact that no one is submitting the card-- be it due to lack of demand or value (and often both). For example a 1988 Topps common may have very few graded; this is not because the card is rare; rather, it is because the card is veritably worthless.

    As we move back in time to 1986, there are some cards in that set which present a challenge to someone seeking an all PSA 10 set; but the sheer amount of unopened material out there, coupled with the very affordable price of said opened, once again undercuts any seeming value proposition in grading many of these cards.

    Now if we are talking about building a set for the love of it and sheer fun, of course nothing else matters.

    The last thing I might add when considering pop numbers, is to parse the concepts of true rarity versus condition rarity. For example, a 1976 George Brett card in PSA 9 might be considered condition rare, as it is rare only in that specific condition and higher. Whereas if one simply wants to own a copy, there are thousands from which to choose. In stark contrast, and as is more often the case with much older cards, there may be only a a few available in all grades, making such a card truly rare-- as opposed to condition-rare.
  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,777 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If you are talking exclusively about 1980s cards, I would not expect many (if any) of these to be or remain low pop. It is important to keep in mind that a card may appear to be rare or low pop based on the pop report data, but that would be specious reasoning, as the data belies the fact that no one is submitting the card-- be it due to lack of demand or value (and often both). For example a 1988 Topps common may have very few graded; this is not because the card is rare; rather, it is because the card is veritably worthless.

    As we move back in time to 1986, there are some cards in that set which present a challenge to someone seeking an all PSA 10 set; but the sheer amount of unopened material out there, coupled with the very affordable price of said opened, once again undercuts any seeming value proposition in grading many of these cards.

    Now if we are talking about building a set for the love of it and sheer fun, of course nothing else matters.

    The last thing I might add when considering pop numbers, is to parse the concepts of true rarity versus condition rarity. For example, a 1976 George Brett card in PSA 9 might be considered condition rare, as it is rare only in that specific condition and higher. Whereas if one simply wants to own a copy, there are thousands from which to choose. In stark contrast, and as is more often the case with much older cards, there may be only a a few available in all grades, making such a card truly rare-- as opposed to condition-rare. >>




    Great post.

  • For example a 1988 Topps common may have very few graded; this is not because the card is rare; rather, it is because the card is veritably worthlessText

    But, that is the example, George Bell #1 of 1989 Topps should be worthless. However, if you score a 10 on a sub it becomes a pop2. How do I know if anyone would want it or what it'd go for? I've seen commons go for $50, so again...how to know which low pops to even bother with? They don't need to 'remain' low pop for long if I'm moving them quickly.
  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,777 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>For example a 1988 Topps common may have very few graded; this is not because the card is rare; rather, it is because the card is veritably worthlessText

    But, that is the example, George Bell #1 of 1989 Topps should be worthless. However, if you score a 10 on a sub it becomes a pop2. How do I know if anyone would want it or what it'd go for? I've seen commons go for $50, so again...how to know which low pops to even bother with? They don't need to 'remain' low pop for long if I'm moving them quickly. >>




    There is one person who has registered a set from the 1989 Topps set who is putting a true set together. They are 83% complete. Their weighted GPA is 9.917 which means they are looking for essentially only 10's.

    The card you reference is now a Pop 2 so in a case like this unfortunately it won't be very valuable. You need competition for a George Bell 1988 Record Breaker card to command any cash.

    There have been 2 examples of this card graded and both came back 10's. There is really no value in a card from a set like this that grades a 10 the first time. Any educated buyer will realize there are plenty more out there.

    If your goal was to try and profit off this set I would go through the set I referenced and make a note of the cards that are missing from this collectors set. If you have strong raw examples you could submit those and hope for 10's. That being said since there is no one else seriously battling this collector your chances of winning are extremely low because if you get a 9 you will lose money on almost all of the cards you send in from the set. There is a collector on the boards by the name of EagleEyeKid that charges a small fee but will increase your chances of scoring 10's exponentially. I would contact him and see if he will help. Otherwise abandon the idea completely because there is no chance that someone who is asking this question will win at this game.



  • LarkinCollectorLarkinCollector Posts: 8,132 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>For example a 1988 Topps common may have very few graded; this is not because the card is rare; rather, it is because the card is veritably worthlessText

    But, that is the example, George Bell #1 of 1989 Topps should be worthless. However, if you score a 10 on a sub it becomes a pop2. How do I know if anyone would want it or what it'd go for? I've seen commons go for $50, so again...how to know which low pops to even bother with? They don't need to 'remain' low pop for long if I'm moving them quickly. >>


    You will not beat 4SC at this game. If there's money to be made on low POP 80s, they've already done it at a lower price per submission and with faster turnaround times.
  • BrickBrick Posts: 4,129 ✭✭✭✭
    Hi, hello, how are ya? image
    Collecting 1960 Topps Baseball in PSA 8
    http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/

    Ralph

  • Thanks dpeck, that's closer to answering what I've inquired about here....

    how about these examples:

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/1989-TOPPS-792-RAFAEL-SANTANA-YANKEES-POP-6-PSA-10-B1371868-/360702849391?pt=US_Baseball&hash=item53fb90b16f

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/pop-4-1988-Topps-236-Ted-POWER-PSA-10-RARE-/271267715237?pt=US_Baseball&amp;hash=item3f28d0d8a5&amp;nma=true&amp;si=I1bxvPxSLWboO8VF6isBgrQcsKA%3D&amp;orig_cvip=true&amp;rt=nc&amp;_trksid=p2047675.l2557

    who'da thought they'd command $25-50 and only a pop 6 & 4 respectively. Maybe the pop commons are relatively new hits and the educated buyer should expect that 10-20 more will pop soon.

    sorry to sound so very new, but how do I reference the guy's list who is after a small percent of this set? on psa site or other? and then the other similar guys seeking commons to complete sets, that answer would cap it off.

    Obviously don't want to throw away what may be of value.

    Thanks!
  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,777 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Thanks dpeck, that's closer to answering what I've inquired about here....

    how about these examples:

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/1989-TOPPS-792-RAFAEL-SANTANA-YANKEES-POP-6-PSA-10-B1371868-/360702849391?pt=US_Baseball&hash=item53fb90b16f

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/pop-4-1988-Topps-236-Ted-POWER-PSA-10-RARE-/271267715237?pt=US_Baseball&amp;hash=item3f28d0d8a5&amp;nma=true&amp;si=I1bxvPxSLWboO8VF6isBgrQcsKA%3D&amp;orig_cvip=true&amp;rt=nc&amp;_trksid=p2047675.l2557

    who'da thought they'd command $25-50 and only a pop 6 & 4 respectively. Maybe the pop commons are relatively new hits and the educated buyer should expect that 10-20 more will pop soon.

    sorry to sound so very new, but how do I reference the guy's list who is after a small percent of this set? on psa site or other? and then the other similar guys seeking commons to complete sets, that answer would cap it off.

    Obviously don't want to throw away what may be of value.

    Thanks! >>





    Will Clark



    Earl Hershisher



    Fred Mcgriff




    Here are three examples.

    Will Clark is quite popular and this card sold for $1.33. I am not sure if you realize what it costs to get cards graded but this was a loser by a wide margin. Not a lot of money but repeated turns into a bad investment.

    The Earl Hershiser record breaker sold for $4.99 and 20 out of 24 have graded a 10. This is a loser no matter who submits it.

    Fred McGriff is a star and a sleeper that some collectors are buying. A Tiffany card is generally more desired and a Pop 1 where you have collectors in some capacity working on a player set. It sold for less then $15.

    I am going to give you what I feel is friendly advice. Move on to a different set. 1989 Topps is not a winner.
  • yeah, I'm aware this set is not very good. But I'm starting ground-up and already opened a box. The 89 set really is irrelevant, it is the point of how do I reference guys seeking commons to complete any sets or otherwise determine value? While we're at it, how to reference the guy's list who is after 17% of what remains of the 89 set? If I find a common/checklist at pop 1 (or 0 even) w/ a decent chance are you saying I should still trash it? In my provided examples, a handful of 10s were popped (4 & 6) and they brought in $25+.
  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,777 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>yeah, I'm aware this set is not very good. But I'm starting ground-up and already opened a box. The 89 set really is irrelevant, it is the point of how do I reference guys seeking commons to complete any sets or otherwise determine value? While we're at it, how to reference the guy's list who is after 17% of what remains of the 89 set? If I find a common/checklist at pop 1 (or 0 even) w/ a decent chance are you saying I should still trash it? In my provided examples, a handful of 10s were popped (4 & 6) and they brought in $25+.


    >>

    89 Set Registry


    Here is the list of collectors who have registered their sets.


    I get that there are cards that have brought in $25+. You need to learn the economics of low priced cards. They are not favorable. Lets say you hit a few of those $25 cards. You miss on a lot and take a $5 or more loss on each card. It doesn't take long to eat up your gain.

    If you are trying to get into graded cards. The best advice in terms of financials is this. Make sure the cards you send in have a good chance to at least get your grading fee back. If you can cover that any hits put you in the black. It is pretty simple.

  • ok, I think I've got it now...I'm shooting for 10s with 80s cards anyway...but I'll think twice before trying commons. thanks for your help man image
  • totallyraddtotallyradd Posts: 767 ✭✭✭
    Uxrelon,

    As an added precaution, feel free to post some of your scans here. Many posters have great eyes, and can nail the grade by just the scan itself. My best suggestion for now is to start with the best of your stars (Ripken, Henderson, Gwynn, Boggs, Sandberg, etc rookies). There's a definite learning curve in grading (one I'm still learning). Those cards should cover your grading costs even if you get a 7.

  • mlbfan2mlbfan2 Posts: 3,124 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Earl Hershisher

    The Earl Hershiser record breaker sold for $4.99 and 20 out of 24 have graded a 10.
    >>



    ^^^ definitely posted by a wrestling fan ^^^
  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,777 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Earl Hershisher

    The Earl Hershiser record breaker sold for $4.99 and 20 out of 24 have graded a 10.
    >>



    ^^^ definitely posted by a wrestling fan ^^^ >>




    LOL

    I definately botched that one. He was my older brothers favorite player in 1985 when we first started collecting.

  • MisterBungleMisterBungle Posts: 2,336 ✭✭✭
    "In my provided examples, a handful of 10s were popped (4 & 6) and they brought in $25+"
    -----

    You seem to think that $25.00 is a good return on your investment, but have you
    thought this through to the end??

    First you have the price you paid for the box (probably not much since it's an '89)

    Then you have your time invested in searching out the best cards to send in.

    Then you have postage and shipping supplies to sent them to PSA for grading.

    Then you have the grading fees, which are a good chunk of the $25 you are hoping for.

    Then you have the postage for PSA to send them back to you.

    Then, if you do get that 10, you have listing fees for eBay.

    Then, if it does sell for $25, you have eBay's final value fees.

    Then you have PayPal fees.

    Then you have postage and shipping costs, as well as gas to the post office to send them to the new owner.

    How much do you think you're going to clear out of that $25? To say nothing
    about absorbing the loss of all the ones that grade 8 or 9 that you won't be
    able to give away.

    ~


    "America suffers today from too much pluribus and not enough unum.".....Arthur Schlesinger Jr.

  • @mattinglymint23 said:
    Pop report is on the psa website
    VCP is your best bet to see prices

    Hi, I am also new to trading, and I also wonder about certain terms like "pop", or "pop higher". I use the Auction Prices Realized portion of the PSACard website to see what prices are on cards that have been auctioned, but what is "VCP"?

  • PaulMaulPaulMaul Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DWEarle said:

    @mattinglymint23 said:
    Pop report is on the psa website
    VCP is your best bet to see prices

    Hi, I am also new to trading, and I also wonder about certain terms like "pop", or "pop higher". I use the Auction Prices Realized portion of the PSACard website to see what prices are on cards that have been auctioned, but what is "VCP"?

    http://vintagecardprices.com

  • @PaulMaul said:

    @DWEarle said:

    @mattinglymint23 said:
    Pop report is on the psa website
    VCP is your best bet to see prices

    Hi, I am also new to trading, and I also wonder about certain terms like "pop", or "pop higher". I use the Auction Prices Realized portion of the PSACard website to see what prices are on cards that have been auctioned, but what is "VCP"?

    http://vintagecardprices.com

    Yea, you gotta pay for all the good stats on that site though. Under the free account ain't gonna show me crap

  • @MisterBungle said:

    "In my provided examples, a handful of 10s were popped (4 & 6) and they brought in $25+"

    You seem to think that $25.00 is a good return on your investment, but have you
    thought this through to the end??

    First you have the price you paid for the box (probably not much since it's an '89)

    Then you have your time invested in searching out the best cards to send in.

    Then you have postage and shipping supplies to sent them to PSA for grading.

    Then you have the grading fees, which are a good chunk of the $25 you are hoping for.

    Then you have the postage for PSA to send them back to you.

    Then, if you do get that 10, you have listing fees for eBay.

    Then, if it does sell for $25, you have eBay's final value fees.

    Then you have PayPal fees.

    Then you have postage and shipping costs, as well as gas to the post office to send them to the new owner.

    How much do you think you're going to clear out of that $25? To say nothing
    about absorbing the loss of all the ones that grade 8 or 9 that you won't be
    able to give away.

    ~

    While I agree with everything MB posted, I think the worst part of trying to grade and flip low priced cards is that even when you get a 10....no one is willing to buy it for any price. That puts all of the cost into the loss column. You will not make money dealing in low priced cards unless you can realize $40-50 on the few that hit and are desired. Trying to sell for $25 is a losing proposal.


    Kirby Puckett Master Set
  • LarkinCollectorLarkinCollector Posts: 8,132 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @clayshooter22 said:

    @MisterBungle said:

    "In my provided examples, a handful of 10s were popped (4 & 6) and they brought in $25+"

    You seem to think that $25.00 is a good return on your investment, but have you
    thought this through to the end??

    First you have the price you paid for the box (probably not much since it's an '89)

    Then you have your time invested in searching out the best cards to send in.

    Then you have postage and shipping supplies to sent them to PSA for grading.

    Then you have the grading fees, which are a good chunk of the $25 you are hoping for.

    Then you have the postage for PSA to send them back to you.

    Then, if you do get that 10, you have listing fees for eBay.

    Then, if it does sell for $25, you have eBay's final value fees.

    Then you have PayPal fees.

    Then you have postage and shipping costs, as well as gas to the post office to send them to the new owner.

    How much do you think you're going to clear out of that $25? To say nothing
    about absorbing the loss of all the ones that grade 8 or 9 that you won't be
    able to give away.

    ~

    While I agree with everything MB posted, I think the worst part of trying to grade and flip low priced cards is that even when you get a 10....no one is willing to buy it for any price. That puts all of the cost into the loss column. You will not make money dealing in low priced cards unless you can realize $40-50 on the few that hit and are desired. Trying to sell for $25 is a losing proposal.

    Six years later and the economics have gotten much worse at that price point with the increase in submission fees since then. I'm typically looking for minimum $10-15 on my misses or it's not worth submitting.

  • 76collector76collector Posts: 589 ✭✭✭

    @uxrelon74,

    Welcome to the boards. Sometimes it is best to abandon ship on an idea even after you have committed a little money to it. I've submitted maybe 1000 or so cards in my life time. Certainly not a big time dealer or grader. But I do have some decent experience. My opinion is that grading cards where only a 10 makes you a profit is a losing endeavor. Like mentioned above it is MUCH harder than it seems to land 10's, unless you are submitting ultra modern cards. Even then it's not a cake walk. Other than 1980 I don't think another set in the 80's is really profitable to submit commons. And even 1980 is questionable. If you have a very sharp eye and can pick out the smallest of imperfection, than you may be able to do this with 70's and earlier cards. The problem is you have to find the cards worthy of those grades. They don't exactly grow on trees. Best of luck to you on your quest. I hope it is a profitable one.

    Jeff

    I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid.
    Collecting:
    post world war II HOF rookie
    76 topps NM/MNT+
    68 topps ex
    54 topps vg
    successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
  • nam812nam812 Posts: 9,764 ✭✭✭✭

    @76collector said:
    @uxrelon74,

    Welcome to the boards.......

    He may not get your welcome since he hasn't logged in for over 6 years. B)



  • 76collector76collector Posts: 589 ✭✭✭

    @nam812,

    I need to start looking at the dates on these posts, lol !!!

    Jeff

    I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid.
    Collecting:
    post world war II HOF rookie
    76 topps NM/MNT+
    68 topps ex
    54 topps vg
    successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
  • blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 1,211 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 19, 2020 8:07AM

    this was a great read this am! the main course was just a discussion of economics on actually subbing an ‘89 george bell card. garnished w sides of earl hershieser and bricks famous welcome slogan. even got a free dessert when realizing that this was a 6 year thread that was bumped. I, too failed to even notice the dates until the end. good stuff, good stuff.

    BEEP, BEEP!

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