good review of China's sad state of economic affairs
derryb
Posts: 36,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
The China Clock Goes Tick Tock
"China. A behemoth government stimulus since 2008, a shadow banking system that has grown exponentially and is as opaque as can be, and a level of corruption most South American countries cannot touch. What’s not to like? And then it all comes back to earth. The transition from central control to free(r) market is never going to be easy, trying to juggle both at the same time is another thing still. And yes, China’s easily big enough to drag us all down with it.
I don’t know about you, but I don’t see this end well. The sunny side, though, is that we’ll need to start making a lot of our own stuff again. Sunny because, you know, we’ll create jobs. And can we please not do all the useless plastic trinkets, have a little more taste when we rebuild our manufacturing?"
Looks like they're gonna need all that gold they've been stacking.
"China. A behemoth government stimulus since 2008, a shadow banking system that has grown exponentially and is as opaque as can be, and a level of corruption most South American countries cannot touch. What’s not to like? And then it all comes back to earth. The transition from central control to free(r) market is never going to be easy, trying to juggle both at the same time is another thing still. And yes, China’s easily big enough to drag us all down with it.
I don’t know about you, but I don’t see this end well. The sunny side, though, is that we’ll need to start making a lot of our own stuff again. Sunny because, you know, we’ll create jobs. And can we please not do all the useless plastic trinkets, have a little more taste when we rebuild our manufacturing?"
Looks like they're gonna need all that gold they've been stacking.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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<< <i>Id love to see China fall apart >>
As well. Might get ugly though when the US debt that they hold is Shanghaied.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i> China is not the only manufacturing game in town. There is Indonesia, India, Africa, etc. >>
Well said. Japan the post WWII low cost industrial provider before China and Korea out priced them. Economic depression there ever since.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>The China Clock Goes Tick Tock
"China. A behemoth government stimulus since 2008, a shadow banking system that has grown exponentially and is as opaque as can be, and a level of corruption most South American countries cannot touch. What’s not to like? And then it all comes back to earth. The transition from central control to free(r) market is never going to be easy, trying to juggle both at the same time is another thing still. And yes, China’s easily big enough to drag us all down with it.
I don’t know about you, but I don’t see this end well. The sunny side, though, is that we’ll need to start making a lot of our own stuff again. Sunny because, you know, we’ll create jobs. And can we please not do all the useless plastic trinkets, have a little more taste when we rebuild our manufacturing?"
Looks like they're gonna need all that gold they've been stacking. >>
Now you're catching on.
3 years ago I said China was just as the USA in 1929. Modern economic theory seems to have screwed up that prognostication, but the collapse of China is inevitable as the world seeks cheaper labor--Malaysia, India, Vietnam--and there is a limit to building uninhabited cities. Since only rogue nations place any value on the Yuan, China will be forced to used its gold holdings to entice foreign investment.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Since only rogue nations place any value on the Yuan, China will be forced to used its gold holdings to entice foreign investment. >>
Guess this adds Germany to the growing list of "rogue nations."
My constant references to China are not because of some great love I have for it. They are to point out that China has been making serious effort be a big player in the world economy. Doing so pushes the US closer to the edge of the stage.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
To say the USA is being pushed off the global stage is a stretch of massive proportions.
What happens when China's economy shrinks to $6 billion?
China is going to be upstaged by India over the next 20-40 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>We'll never rebuild our manufacturing. Why would a company invest here when they can pay someone 50 cents an hour with no benefits? China is not the only manufacturing game in town. There is Indonesia, India, Africa, etc. It's a global race to the bottom to drive down wages for everyone. The big corporations win and we the people, lose. It's not just manufacturing either, it's engineering, IT, customer service, and lots of other professions being outsourced. >>
Africa is huge (1 billion people) and largely untapped. Expect large portions of western and central Africa to be tested for development soon. When studying international economics Africa appears as a wild stallion that could win the Kentucky Derby with proper training.
That said, China's GDP will surpass the USA by 2025.