1980 topps baseball BBCE sealed case question
Charliethefish
Posts: 18
As of total there are only 11 list PSA 10's of Henderson's 1980 topps… what is everyone's thoughts on the 80 or so vending boxes sold on BBCE generating a new PSA 10's… can we consider each vending box containing at least 1 Henderson rookie? maybe 2?
of the 12,776 Henderson's graded only 11, 10's which is at a rate of 0.10 %.. so maybe we see in the coming months someone from these BBCE seal vending boxes from sealed case hit on one.. good luck to all that picked up a box ...
also there are 17, 1980's topps cards (no one close to a major star) that have 0 pop PSA 10's what would one of these 0 pops pulled from one of these sealed boxes bring in based on pop 1 PSA 10 1980 topps baseball command?
of the 12,776 Henderson's graded only 11, 10's which is at a rate of 0.10 %.. so maybe we see in the coming months someone from these BBCE seal vending boxes from sealed case hit on one.. good luck to all that picked up a box ...
also there are 17, 1980's topps cards (no one close to a major star) that have 0 pop PSA 10's what would one of these 0 pops pulled from one of these sealed boxes bring in based on pop 1 PSA 10 1980 topps baseball command?
0
Comments
<< <i>what is everyone's thoughts on the 80 or so vending boxes sold on BBCE generating a new PSA 10's… can we consider each vending box containing at least 1 Henderson rookie? maybe 2?
>>
That's too high. 80 vending boxes would be 55 Henderson rookies, on average.
When I started collecting this set back in 2009, I counted about 70+ cards that still didn't have a PSA 10. As you can see, this number has diminished quite significantly over the past 5 years. I bought the pop 1 PSA 10 Bobby Bonds for less ten $20 on eBay in 2009 because no one cared about this set other then a few handful of collectors that were all asleep that night, and just recently 4SC's just popped the 2nd PSA 10, and put it on eBay for $199.
At the rate the 1980 topps unopened is selling for and the rate it is going up, if I popped one of the cards above in a 10, I would list it for sale on eBay for at least $300.
Paul.
Later, Paul.
<< <i>At the rate that 4SC's submits 1980 Topps baseball these 17 cards will appear rather quickly.
When I started collecting this set back in 2009, I counted about 70+ cards that still didn't have a PSA 10. As you can see, this number has diminished quite significantly over the past 5 years. I bought the pop 1 PSA 10 Bobby Bonds for less ten $20 on eBay in 2009 because no one cared about this set other then a few handful of collectors that were all asleep that night, and just recently 4SC's just popped the 2nd PSA 10, and put it on eBay for $199.
At the rate the 1980 topps unopened is selling for and the rate it is going up, if I popped one of the cards above in a 10, I would list it for sale on eBay for at least $300.
Paul. >>
+1
Agree completely. Same applied for 1979 Topps--I bought a pop 1 Ron Cey #190 about 8 years ago for $50. It is still a pop 1 card and would probably command $500+ today for the right buyer.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
726 cards in a set.
500 divided by 726 = 69% chance of hitting 1 Henderson in any given vending.
In 3 vending boxes there are 1500 cards. With 726 cards in a set you are basically going to get 2 of each card per 3 vending boxes, on average.
Of course printing process are not perfect and sometimes you will get 2 or more in one box, and some unlucky people will get none, even over a few boxes.
Not sure why this concept is so lost on card collectors. Dudes rip a modern box and get pissy that their $80 box doesn't contain a $500 hit!
Anyway, with the vending, 1 rookie hit...you really shouldn't be disappointed if you don't get it. On average, one out of three vending boxes wont contain that card.
FWIW, thats why 1983 and 1985 are so popular IMO....with 3 big rookies in each, almost all the time you will get at least one, most of the time you'll get 2, and some of the time you will get all three. But it would be very rare to not get at least one.
Anyway with miscuts, and just the general nature of vending, it would take a TON of 1980 vending cases to move that pop on the Henderson more than a few numbers.
Jimmy
<< <i>500 cards in a vending box.
726 cards in a set.
500 divided by 726 = 69% chance of hitting 1 Henderson in any given vending.
In 3 vending boxes there are 1500 cards. With 726 cards in a set you are basically going to get 2 of each card per 3 vending boxes, on average.
Of course printing process are not perfect and sometimes you will get 2 or more in one box, and some unlucky people will get none, even over a few boxes.
Not sure why this concept is so lost on card collectors. Dudes rip a modern box and get pissy that their $80 box doesn't contain a $500 hit!
Anyway, with the vending, 1 rookie hit...you really shouldn't be disappointed if you don't get it. On average, one out of three vending boxes wont contain that card.
FWIW, thats why 1983 and 1985 are so popular IMO....with 3 big rookies in each, almost all the time you will get at least one, most of the time you'll get 2, and some of the time you will get all three. But it would be very rare to not get at least one.
Anyway with miscuts, and just the general nature of vending, it would take a TON of 1980 vending cases to move that pop on the Henderson more than a few numbers. >>
the probability of pulling a henderson on each single card you pull out every time is 1:726. why because it is not a given that you will get 500 different cards one single vending box. so just because you pull a henderson out of the box, doesn't mean that you couldn't get a second or a third in the same box. all that your 69% chance means is that in the best case you will have 69% of the complete set. the probability of that happening isn't great.
Collecting:
Brett Favre Master Set
Favre Ticket Stubs
Favre TD Reciever Autos
Football HOF Player/etc. Auto Set
Football HOF Rc's
<< <i>
<< <i>500 cards in a vending box.
726 cards in a set.
500 divided by 726 = 69% chance of hitting 1 Henderson in any given vending.
In 3 vending boxes there are 1500 cards. With 726 cards in a set you are basically going to get 2 of each card per 3 vending boxes, on average.
Of course printing process are not perfect and sometimes you will get 2 or more in one box, and some unlucky people will get none, even over a few boxes.
Not sure why this concept is so lost on card collectors. Dudes rip a modern box and get pissy that their $80 box doesn't contain a $500 hit!
Anyway, with the vending, 1 rookie hit...you really shouldn't be disappointed if you don't get it. On average, one out of three vending boxes wont contain that card.
FWIW, thats why 1983 and 1985 are so popular IMO....with 3 big rookies in each, almost all the time you will get at least one, most of the time you'll get 2, and some of the time you will get all three. But it would be very rare to not get at least one.
Anyway with miscuts, and just the general nature of vending, it would take a TON of 1980 vending cases to move that pop on the Henderson more than a few numbers. >>
the probability of pulling a henderson on each single card you pull out every time is 1:726. why because it is not a given that you will get 500 different cards one single vending box. so just because you pull a henderson out of the box, doesn't mean that you couldn't get a second or a third in the same box. all that your 69% chance means is that in the best case you will have 69% of the complete set. the probability of that happening isn't great. >>
Your probability doesn't change unless you've actually removed some of the cards and know what they are. Short of that, your probability of pulling any given card are 69%. Unknown variables are already accounted for in that number.
*edit* I did forget about sp's. Any sp's will alter the number, but once you have the data, that probability you come up with still will be a constant.
What does anyone think the Henderson 10 would trade at in a good auction?
Thank you
<< <i>This is a great thread !!
What does anyone think the Henderson 10 would trade at in a good auction?
Thank you >>
$23.450
<< <i>This is a great thread !!
What does anyone think the Henderson 10 would trade at in a good auction?
Thank you >>
The 1979 Ozzie Smith R.C. H.o.F. PSA 10 pop (4/0) has been elevated to this level ($23,450), but I do not believe that the Henderson is quite there just yet. There are 11 of them compared to 4 of the Smiths. Most of the Henderson's that I have seen are mostly not that great in their 10 holders ie: they are 8's and 9's sitting in 10 holders. I have seen about 1/2 of the pop including the Young pedigree which a majority of posters here believe if regraded today by anyone of us sending it in would get an 8 at best. From the scans posted by "Justinshoebox" I firmly believe he has the best specimen to date that I have seen. Now what would I pay for one if needing this card???
$12,500 MAX!, but that is today. Last summer I would have paid $9,000, as one was on eBay about a year+ ago at $10K and didn't sell for months.
JMHO.
Paul.
Later, Paul.
<< <i>
<< <i>This is a great thread !!
What does anyone think the Henderson 10 would trade at in a good auction?
Thank you >>
The 1979 Ozzie Smith R.C. H.o.F. PSA 10 pop (4/0) has been elevated to this level ($23,450), but I do not believe that the Henderson is quite there just yet. There are 11 of them compared to 4 of the Smiths. Most of the Henderson's that I have seen are mostly not that great in their 10 holders ie: they are 8's and 9's sitting in 10 holders. I have seen about 1/2 of the pop including the Young pedigree which a majority of posters here believe if regraded today by anyone of us sending it in would get an 8 at best. From the scans posted by "Justinshoebox" I firmly believe he has the best specimen to date that I have seen. Now what would I pay for one if needing this card???
$12,500 MAX!, but that is today. Last summer I would have paid $9,000, as one was on eBay about a year+ ago at $10K and didn't sell for months.
JMHO.
Paul. >>
Agreed on the Young graded Henderson, should not be in a 10 holder.
Is very helpful
Does anyone know of a Henderson rookie reachable or currently for sale?
Thank you