Modern vs Vintage - popularity

akuracy503

So i've been hidden in the vintage (50's-60's) baseball crowd for the last 10 years.
I've recently started looking at Jeter, Pujols and Trout RC's.

The numbers are staggering as I look at bid count/participant activity, best offer activity, the modern stuff blows away vintage.

Are the numbers an accurate representation of modern card collectors?
Should I assume that the vintage crowd is a well defined community of collectors who are fading in comparison to the modern crowd?

The vintage collectors can preach how they will never purchase modern stuff, yet the modern collectors are speaking volumes in their numbers and participation in the market.

It was an eye opener as I never really hesitated to the thought that vintage rules and modern is for suckers.

Does the evolution of card collecting truly show the cycle of our hobby as age groups and new generations come into play?

Skyhawks1b

I think the only risk modern poses is on the PC side, rather than flipping. If modern rookies or stars fizzle then cards plummet to pennies. If you buy early enough....or hit in packs & sell at right times, they can be rather profitable. Buy a vintage hall of famer....well, he will always be...a hall of famer!

3BoyzTrading

I'm sure you've read over my thread on my recent modern group break results. I've been collecting for over 25 years and I've realized that my collecting habits tend to change from time to time. One month I'll buy 1970's packs and the next month I'll buy 2000's wax boxes. The last six months I've been heavy into 2013 Bowman Chrome 10-20 case breaks and ultra high end modern. Heck, I even bought a game used jersey of Mike Moustakas. I'll share my opinion on baseball prospects. There are three main sets released by Bowman every year,Bowman,Bowman Chrome and Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects. There are over 200 different prospects between the 3 sets. 3 years from now, the number of succesful players will reduce to about 100. In 6 years it'll be down to 50.In 9 years, it'll probably drop to 15 or so. Of those 15, maybe 5 will have had succesful careers with only 1 or 2 having HOF numbers.
Are the numbers an accurate representation of modern card collectors?
As a modern collector, stick to what you enjoy and add to your personal collection. To some it's a favorite team, to others a favorite player. Now if you're an investor or "prospector" and doing it for the money, sell, sell,sell. Just understand that timing is everything. For a Prospects, prices tend to rise base on their performance in the minors but most importantly their call to The Show. The next big rise will be dependent on their performance in the majors. Prices will fluctuate whether it's a HR streak, hit streak ,All-Star selection or failed drug test. Timing is everything.

Here are the costs of the last 10 Group Breaks I've participated in:

Cost: 559.95 x10 = 5599.50
Cost:1,040.00 x 10 = 10,400
Cost = $10,500
Case Price= $689.95 x 4 Cases = $2,759.80
Case Price=$775x5 = $3875.00
Case Price= $4200 /20 Cards
Case Price= $1069.95

That's over $38,000 worth of cases sold in the last 45 days. Modern cards popularity isn't going anywhere but up. The way I look at it is, I'll spend my money on the newest stuff. When I get an itch for something else, I'll buy a box of 85 Topps or a 75 Topps Wax pack.

To answer your last question:
Should I assume that the vintage crowd is a well defined community of collectors who are fading in comparison to the modern crowd?
I really believe that the vintage market(HOF rookie cards at the least) will in fact grow. You may get team collectors or just those interested in the greats of the game.

Stingray

Not to sound morbid, but I wonder if certain decades (let's say) will be less collected as those from that time period are passing on. I collect mainly from those years that I bought as a kid (mid-late 70s and early 80s), so when my generation are gone, I wonder if there will be the same amount of interest in these particuliar years??

bishop

It is just a hobby for me, so I collect cards that appeal to me, from any period

WhiteTornado

<< <i>Not to sound morbid, but I wonder if certain decades (let's say) will be less collected as those from that time period are passing on. I collect mainly from those years that I bought as a kid (mid-late 70s and early 80s), so when my generation are gone, I wonder if there will be the same amount of interest in these particuliar years?? >>



Good question, since I bought as a kid in that same time frame. I would think the interest level in the HOF-ers that played during that time frame will still be high, but perhaps less interest in the good-but-not great players.

Others have brought up good points as well. I like football from that era, but I also collect modern football. Some of the modern appeal to me is the chance to flip a "hot" card if I happen to get one in a pack. Some of the appeal is to simply collect base cards of players I like, sort of a throw back to how I collected as a kid. My son (9, almost 10) collects and he likes the modern stuff because of course they feature players he is still seeing play on TV.

Stone193

<< <i>It is just a hobby for me, so I collect cards that appeal to me, from any period >>

+1

Dnice

It is just a hobby for me, so I collect cards that appeal to me, from any period

VERY well said

+2

fiveniner

I am mainly a pre 70 collector however I at times dabble with some of the heritage sets .The only modern rookies have an interest in purchasing is Jeter and Griffey Jr and Cabrera.After the late 80s I dont know one set from another or very little at best.

MrNearMint

<< <i>It is just a hobby for me, so I collect cards that appeal to me, from any period >>




+3

lurkingnomore

I was collecting a lot of todays QB's (M Ryan, Stafford, etc) but in last year or so found myself gravitating back to QB's I watched growing up so been adding to my stash of Montanas, Elways, etc

Al

bunt

<< <i>

<< <i>It is just a hobby for me, so I collect cards that appeal to me, from any period >>




+3 >>



+4

Have fun but don't go overboard (unless out to make one of those 'profit deals' the Jerk said in the movie

soundgard

I lost interest in modern around 1981-82 when they started to come out with multiple sets. I never knew what set/packs I should collect?

robert67

I like opening Topps baseball every year because it takes me back to the days when baseball was everything to me and my friends.


I sold off the majority of my vintage stuff the past 2 years. Vintage does not interest me these days.

Always collect what you like and you cant go wrong.

Ilovecards

a lot of modern collectors are out of control. Spending tens of thousands of dollars on cards of guys who might be a nobody in 2 to 3 years. Or just a decent player.

I often think about players from when I was young like Todd Van Poppel , I wonder how much his cards would go for today if he just came out. Some 1/1 card or 1/5 card.

Its a big risk. I think if you want to collect modern go for cards that are not very expensive but increase in Value decently like topps chrome etc and if you can pick a few extra low produced cards that a bonus but do not go crazy.

HeadsUp38

I'm generally a vintage card collector and have been for about 20 years, but I've collected all eras at some time or another. I really like the 2013 Topps design and have casually worked on completing that set. I've been turned off a little bit at some collectors who view new stuff as "shiny new crap that won't be worth anything down the road." Since I began looking more closely toward the current stuff and talking to a few modern collectors and dealers, some of that stuff definitely holds its value while a lot of the older mid-grade cards from before 1970 don't bring as much money as they used to. High graded Mickey Mantle cards can bring thousands of $$$, but you can find the same Mantle cards in lower grades for well under $100. I don't remember seeing any Mantle card for less than $100 as a kid back in the 1990s. In contrast, Albert Pujols regular issued Topps rookie card consistently sells in the $20 range. That's hardly worthless. Mike Trout base Topps rookies are fairly high in comparison to Frank Thomas' 1990 Topps RC. Granted there are a lot more 1990 Topps out there--even in 1990, but unless Trout's production falls off the cliff, I doubt his cards will be worthless.

I think Rich Klein said in a thread that he thinks the vintage community is just a small portion of the card collecting community. You wouldn't know it attending the National, but judging by the kind of money and blogs that are out there, the modern card collecting community is hardly just a small group of case breaker gamblers.
Craig H.

mattinglymint23

I love this thread. I'm primarily a 70's guy but my ripping urges got me into modern. I don't do hosted breaks that much but rather buy boxes and cases to rip.
Favor bowman and bowman draft.

What's a good on line resource to track prospects and keep up with progress? I hate following the market on eBay and sometimes missing the surges for a player...

Have a 2012 draft jumbo case - debate selling or breaking. Maybe some guys want to join in on a case break here?

stown

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>It is just a hobby for me, so I collect cards that appeal to me, from any period >>




+3 >>



+4

Have fun but don't go overboard (unless out to make one of those 'profit deals' the Jerk said in the movie >>



+ 5

akuracy503

Little bit of shock and awe over the modern action i'm seeing, makes vintage prices seem boring minus the registry stuff, here is a auto/patch card (Although 1/1) that went for a healthy price:

Ichiro Auto/Patch $1700+

Ilovecards

<< <i>So i've been hidden in the vintage (50's-60's) baseball crowd for the last 10 years.
I've recently started looking at Jeter, Pujols and Trout RC's.

The numbers are staggering as I look at bid count/participant activity, best offer activity, the modern stuff blows away vintage.

Are the numbers an accurate representation of modern card collectors?
Should I assume that the vintage crowd is a well defined community of collectors who are fading in comparison to the modern crowd?

The vintage collectors can preach how they will never purchase modern stuff, yet the modern collectors are speaking volumes in their numbers and participation in the market.

It was an eye opener as I never really hesitated to the thought that vintage rules and modern is for suckers.

Does the evolution of card collecting truly show the cycle of our hobby as age groups and new generations come into play? >>



I think both crowds are fading . I think the majority of vintage and modern collectors are 30 +

those modern cards are all way over priced. Think real estate bubble kinda over inflated prices.

now if you want to invest for tomorrow kids still collect cards

just not sports cards

what will the adults of tomorrow want to fight over ?

probably pokemon, mtg and yugioh cards. I say expect a huge price war in the future as though kids become adults and have money to actually spend on cards.

miconelegacy

I buy and sell both, and collect both.

Modern to me is because you are collecting, getting graded, selling, trading, whatever guys that are alive and playing. Or up an coming future prospects.

I was right there with the modern stuff from late 80's, early 90's.

I think it's not kids or young folks mainly. As some have already said they have started to collect modern. It's just a natural progression in my opinion. Especially for collectors. Watching that player on TV that you just got a jersey auto card, or a refractor PSA 10.

Modern and vintage both rule. Modern just seems to be really hot over the past several years. Harper, Strasburg, Darvish, Goldschmidt, Puig, on and on.

Enjoy whatever you do.

ScottA

Great thread......I'm in my mid 40's and once only collected cards from the 70's and early 80's. With the price of mid-grade vintage today being about the same, or in many cases less, than it was 20 years ago (and being 20 years older with some actual money to spend), I've been able to go backwards and find myself enamored with sets like the 1934 Diamond Stars and even some of the non-sport sets from the 30's. I'm almost done with a '69 Topps baseball set - not because I wasn't interested in it 20 years ago, but because the prices have stabilized to a point that I can now afford it. A '69 Reggie rookie in mint condition is half the price it was 25 years ago. I have the old Tuff Stuff magazines to prove it!

And ebay, along with online auctions and websites like this one, provides endless sources of buying opportunities and ways to educate oneself about the hobby. I also think many sports card and memorabilia collectors are history buffs, to at least a small degree, and will always be interested in older stuff as they discover it and realize they may be able to afford it.

As far as modern cards go, my rule is to wait two years after it comes out, then buy what I like. But I'm not a huge fan of modern mostly because I can't make sense of all the sets and subsets and 1 of 1's and chrome this and gold-plated that, and other nonsense.

BLUEJAYWAY

Todays new is tomorrows old.

BLUEJAYWAY

I usually have a 2-2 1/2 year lag time in any wax purchases of modern. I wait for the speculative dust to settle. Sure I may miss a Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, but the success to bust ratio is too great to buy in high at the onset to possibly sell low later. The only exception might be in regard to high end autos./mem. cards. of star players. Through the years I've had good luck on the Target, Walmart, and Kmart rewraps. I do not buy loose packs. Usually I chase the 10 packs for $10 or 8 for $10. Or the discounted blaster boxes. Through the years have picked up a Killebrew UD 500 HR Club bat card, 1 of 5 auto./jersey of Hakim Olajuwan, Topps 1 of 1 auto. of Prince Fielder, among others. I've been able to build sets, get some good inserts, and have the fun of ripping 3-4 times the packs than if I had bought the $80-$100 boxes. For me this this works as I have the most bang for my buck and the added fun of more pack rips. Mainly, I try to keep the fun in it. But best of luck to all of you who venture into the high end market. I enjoy seeing your pictures of your finds.

ReggieCleveland

Not sure there's any one barometer to look at that would accurately compare the two, but activity on FCB and Blowout dwarfs the activity on CU, Net54 and other vintage boards by a LOT.

MrVintage

<< <i>Not sure there's any one barometer to look at that would accurately compare the two, but activity on FCB and Blowout dwarfs the activity on CU, Net54 and other vintage boards by a LOT. >>



Yeah it's really not even close. Blowout is the place to be for modern as they regularly have group case breaks(sometimes 20 jumbo cases at once) and their BST forum is extremely active with people stocking up on the new up and coming prospects. I enjoy both vintage and modern. If I'm buying to keep I stick with vintage and if I am looking to gamble and try to flip I go with the modern.

doog71

With my focus (HOF/future HOF rookies and Yankee superstars) I end up collecting both, which I greatly enjoy!

Griffins

<< <i>Not sure there's any one barometer to look at that would accurately compare the two, but activity on FCB and Blowout dwarfs the activity on CU, Net54 and other vintage boards by a LOT. >>



yes, but look at the demographic.

akuracy503

<< <i>

<< <i>Not sure there's any one barometer to look at that would accurately compare the two, but activity on FCB and Blowout dwarfs the activity on CU, Net54 and other vintage boards by a LOT. >>



yes, but look at the demographic. >>



What are the demographic differences? Are the younger collectors into modern?

3BoyzTrading

You will see younger kids on Beckett and Blowout with most of them interested in modern players. Here, not so much.

Ilovecards

<< <i>You will see younger kids on Beckett and Blowout with most of them interested in modern players. Here, not so much. >>




most people on the other boards are in their 30s plus in my experience.

haiku808

<< <i>

<< <i>You will see younger kids on Beckett and Blowout with most of them interested in modern players. Here, not so much. >>




most people on the other boards are in their 30s plus in my experience. >>




It seems like a whole bunch of people and kids under 20 with a few older "kids" over 30 trying to act like they know everything to Kids under 15. This board and 54 would destroy the top mods,members on the other forums in a debate about this hobby. lol

3BoyzTrading

I stopped visiting the Beckett boards because everytime I would share a pull....all the responses I got were...PM me a price....price on Harper.....or teens asking if Strasburg or Harper have Hall of Fame careers...... I have been on the Blowout boards a lot but mainly stick to the group break sections.

tkd7

<< <i>This board and 54 would destroy the top mods,members on the other forums in a debate about this hobby. lol >>



I don't understand what that means - dabate about the hobby.

I'm sure CU and N54 has much more knowledge on T, E, and D cards, not as much on refractors and game used.
It isn't really a competition around knowledge, just a way to have fun, at least to me.

3BoyzTrading

Then there are the few that embrace all years of the hobby. I am always keeping an eye out for tobacco cards,52 Topps,71 Topps,84 USFL,86 Fleer,93 Finest Refractors,1998 Contenders,2001 BC Pujols,2003 Exquisite,2011 Kaepernicks and 2013 Puigs......