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Unopened forecast for 2014?

galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 8,284 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Trading Cards & Memorabilia Forum
Simply put, what are you guys anticipating? Will addendums be made to the 'Is BBCE drying up?' thread, or will more individuals come out to play based on the leap in Steve's buying prices? Admittedly, marking off specific items on my want list will come at a price (literally) at this stage of the game, but when faced with the prospects of another 12 months of relative aridity, I'd much rather pony up a little extra scratch to get what I want.

For example, unless I blinked and missed it somewhere along the way, I can't recall the last time I saw a 1980 Topps (baseball) rack box at bbcexchange.com. If I -- at the very least -- don't see one in 2014, I think I'm going to require some type of therapy.

Opine!

you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet

Comments

  • cpamikecpamike Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    I think it will level off now, but I've been very wrong on the market lately. Never thought I'd see the prices we've seen lately. Heck, I even sold some stuff to afford other items I wanted. I was lucky to collect heavily before the run up. I will say it is much, much harder to find complete boxes let alone cases for sale from the late 70's and early 80's than I was able to see just a few years ago. Unfortunately, my crystal ball has been malfunctioning lately and this is the best I can do. image
    "The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep,
    And miles to go before I sleep."

    "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

    Collecting:
    Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
  • DCanfieldDCanfield Posts: 548 ✭
    If only I knew the answer to this question! My best guess is that prices will hold steady or rise marginally during the year with the exception of maybe a few rarer items that are on a lot of collectors want lists such as '76 baseball. It would be fun to revisit this at the end of 2014 and see how wrong or right we were.
    Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming 'WOW What a Ride!' Mark Frost
  • itzagoneritzagoner Posts: 8,753 ✭✭
    can't wait to see what up at the National. image
  • jordangretzkyfanjordangretzkyfan Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My forecast is that full boxes from 1965-1980 will continue to gain steam and jump another 10-20%. If a case or two come available, those will be up in the 20-30% range since the big dogs have deep pockets.

    The stuff from 1981-1986 has hit a plateau for the time being since it is still fairly plentiful. Sealed cases from this era will continue to sell quickly, but boxes have been sitting on BBCE for much longer at current prices. I do think football and basketball from 1981-1986 has a bit more room to the upside. The next big jump in early 80's stuff will come about 5 years from now as the kids that grew up ripping this stuff turn 40-50 years old and hit their peak earning years. This is exactly what is happening to material from 1975-1980 right now.

    With all the ripping still going on as seen in the strong PSA submission volume, unopened will remain king for a long while. It is getting much harder to find clean boxes and cases from 1965-1985 than it was even 3 years ago. That said, anything post 1987 will take an eternity to jump in value since the company's ran those presses 24/7.
  • PaulMaulPaulMaul Posts: 4,892 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My guess would be a lessening of demand at the current price levels rather than an increase in supply.
    My 1972 Baseball and Wacky Pack Registry Sets
  • galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 8,284 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>can't wait to see what up at the National. image >>



    Word. You gonna make it out this year, g-money?

    you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet

  • cpamikecpamike Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>can't wait to see what up at the National. image >>



    Word. You gonna make it out this year, g-money? >>



    I'm locked and loaded for this year. The more, the merrier!!! image
    "The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep,
    And miles to go before I sleep."

    "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

    Collecting:
    Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
  • Probstein123Probstein123 Posts: 1,281 ✭
    I see prices climbing steadily......
    demand outweighs supply...
    Rick Probstein
    Ebay Store:
    Probstein123
    phone: 973 747 6304
    email: rickprobstein1@gmail.com

    Probstein123 is actively accepting CONSIGNMENTS !!
  • MantleFan23MantleFan23 Posts: 702 ✭✭✭✭
    I never really had an interest in the unopened market until about two years ago. Got involved in the group rips, read a lot of great info from the experts on here, and yeah, I was hooked. I was able to purchase most of my collection before the huge upswing in prices last year. Since the huge upswing in prices, I've probably been "priced out" at least for now. Its been frustrating as there are still a few things that I'd like to add to my collection, but the prices at least for now, have gotten a bit too high for me, and there are only a few reputable sources that I buy from. So for now, I'm shifting my focus back to my 1956 topps registry set that I pretty much abandoned for about a year.

    My prediction is that prices will stabilize for 80-85 (maybe even come down a bit) but I think the sky is really the limit on the 70's still. I'm hoping that they don't get TOO high as there are still a few things that I would like to acquire from the 70's.

    I dont know if there are a lot of "newer" collectors to unopened, but its definitely been nice to establish that as my other focus besides my set. It gives me a bit of variety and I love seeing the unopened from the days of my youth. One day, maybe I'll just rip it all!





  • cpamikecpamike Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    I hear you on getting "priced out" Jeremy. I'm frustrated as well as it is hard for me to sell anything to buy other stuff I want. I like to buy, buy, and buy some more, but these prices have helped control my urges.
    "The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep,
    And miles to go before I sleep."

    "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

    Collecting:
    Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
  • MantleFan23MantleFan23 Posts: 702 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I hear you on getting "priced out" Jeremy. I'm frustrated as well as it is hard for me to sell anything to buy other stuff I want. I like to buy, buy, and buy some more, but these prices have helped control my urges. >>



    I know, I've thought of selling a few things to get more unopened (in fact, I thought about selling my 1956 set and going "all in" on unopened, but I'm glad that I didn't) The other problem was I got married this past year, and now I can't just spend all my money on unopened! :-) Marriage sure put a drag on my unopened collection....ha ha.





  • twalkertwalker Posts: 22
    I think prices will contine to climb as eventually all of the premium unopened will vanish either by being opened or secured in collections that will never let go.

    Get the 80s while you still can as (unbelievably) it's the only hope for some ... myself included!
  • jmaciujmaciu Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭
    It will definitely be interesting to see what happens. I have personally acquired a bunch of quality unopened from 1975 - 1985 in the last several months. There are a few things I am trying to acquire now, but then I will likely curb things back due to increasing pricing. The supply of 70's stuff is definitely decreasing, so if new collectors come to the party, it will have to increase in value.

    Jmaciu's Collection
  • SteelernationSteelernation Posts: 362 ✭
    Dpeck, 1954, 70stopps, Grote15, Joe b, et al had a great discussion going on this very subject in my 1972 box thread until it got hijacked and turned into an inquisition. Very insightful, knowledgeable, and informative input/opinions. Highly recommend you read their thoughts. They actually changed my mind from potentially selling to buying.

    It's about 8 or 9 pages back.
  • cpamikecpamike Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I hear you on getting "priced out" Jeremy. I'm frustrated as well as it is hard for me to sell anything to buy other stuff I want. I like to buy, buy, and buy some more, but these prices have helped control my urges. >>



    I know, I've thought of selling a few things to get more unopened (in fact, I thought about selling my 1956 set and going "all in" on unopened, but I'm glad that I didn't) The other problem was I got married this past year, and now I can't just spend all my money on unopened! :-) Marriage sure put a drag on my unopened collection....ha ha. >>



    Congratulations Jeremy!!! I think. image

    Even though I love unopened, I do collect raw sets too. I think it helps me resist the urge to rip and I do jump back into it when unopened product I'm looking for is scarce.

    And I wouldn't listen to anything that guy Grote15 says. image

    "The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep,
    And miles to go before I sleep."

    "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

    Collecting:
    Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,743 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>I hear you on getting "priced out" Jeremy. I'm frustrated as well as it is hard for me to sell anything to buy other stuff I want. I like to buy, buy, and buy some more, but these prices have helped control my urges. >>



    I know, I've thought of selling a few things to get more unopened (in fact, I thought about selling my 1956 set and going "all in" on unopened, but I'm glad that I didn't) The other problem was I got married this past year, and now I can't just spend all my money on unopened! :-) Marriage sure put a drag on my unopened collection....ha ha. >>



    Congratulations Jeremy!!! I think. image

    Even though I love unopened, I do collect raw sets too. I think it helps me resist the urge to rip and I do jump back into it when unopened product I'm looking for is scarce.

    And I wouldn't listen to anything that guy Grote15 says. image >>



    I predict a 1979 Topps baseball cello was will end at $19-$20K. Oh wait, that happened already.. image



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • cpamikecpamike Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    I saw that wise guy remark. image
    "The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep,
    And miles to go before I sleep."

    "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

    Collecting:
    Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,743 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I saw that wise guy remark. image >>



    Nothing escapes you, LOL!


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 8,284 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm locked and loaded for this year. The more, the merrier!!! image >>



    If I make it to the Natty this year, I'm not leaving the city limits until I buy you a pack and have you open it in my presence. Seriously, watching cpamike bust a pack of cards in the flesh is like #2 on my bucket list -- sandwiched between attending The Masters and swimming with an oceanic whitetip shark. Whatever it takes, brother. If I have to pay Nikklos to come breathe on you, I'll do it.

    To answer my own question(s), I simply can't envision unopened goodness from the 70s letting up. I'm dreaming of the day Steve flashes a sealed case from 78 or 79. It would get ugly very quickly, and I'm not sure the price would be much of a deterrent. I do think, however, that 80-85 is about to plateau. If for some reason I see a wax box of 80T fly for four figures this coming year, I'll immediately wash my hands of all this and publicly admit that I don't know anything anymore.

    you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet

  • cpamikecpamike Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭


    << <i>If I make it to the Natty this year, I'm not leaving the city limits until I buy you a pack and have you open it in my presence. Seriously, watching cpamike bust a pack of cards in the flesh is like #2 on my bucket list -- sandwiched between attending The Masters and swimming with an oceanic whitetip shark. Whatever it takes, brother. If I have to pay Nikklos to come breathe on you, I'll do it. >>



    I like Chris, but I think him breathing on me may not do the trick. I opened a 1980 cello pack with Doug (dcanfield) at last year's National and we both quickly realized why we don't do that. Of course, the pack had a slit in it so it didn't really count I suppose. image
    "The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep,
    And miles to go before I sleep."

    "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

    Collecting:
    Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,743 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>If I make it to the Natty this year, I'm not leaving the city limits until I buy you a pack and have you open it in my presence. Seriously, watching cpamike bust a pack of cards in the flesh is like #2 on my bucket list -- sandwiched between attending The Masters and swimming with an oceanic whitetip shark. Whatever it takes, brother. If I have to pay Nikklos to come breathe on you, I'll do it. >>



    I like Chris, but I think him breathing on me may not do the trick. I opened a 1980 cello pack with Doug (dcanfield) at last year's National and we both quickly realized why we don't do that. Of course, the pack had a slit in it so it didn't really count I suppose. image >>



    Packs with broken gum don't count, either. image

    Mike, I am going to this year's National, so I can be your ripping stunt double, LOL..


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • cpamikecpamike Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>If I make it to the Natty this year, I'm not leaving the city limits until I buy you a pack and have you open it in my presence. Seriously, watching cpamike bust a pack of cards in the flesh is like #2 on my bucket list -- sandwiched between attending The Masters and swimming with an oceanic whitetip shark. Whatever it takes, brother. If I have to pay Nikklos to come breathe on you, I'll do it. >>



    I like Chris, but I think him breathing on me may not do the trick. I opened a 1980 cello pack with Doug (dcanfield) at last year's National and we both quickly realized why we don't do that. Of course, the pack had a slit in it so it didn't really count I suppose. image >>



    Packs with broken gum don't count, either. image

    Mike, I am going to this year's National, so I can be your ripping stunt double, LOL.. >>



    You are very good at it, I must admit.
    "The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep,
    And miles to go before I sleep."

    "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

    Collecting:
    Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
  • Big80sBig80s Posts: 2,758 ✭✭✭
    Since this market is too crazy for me to make a solid prediction on - I will stick to what I know. I will personally be ripping some lovely 70's goodness (hopefully from a variety of different sports) over the next year, in-turn increasing the value of everyone else's unopened collections and simultaneously decreasing my own back account...and quite possibly the love my wife has for me.

    Here's to a wonderful 2014!
    Let's Rip It: PackGeek.com
    Jeff
  • StingrayStingray Posts: 8,843 ✭✭✭


    << <i>My forecast is that full boxes from 1965-1980 will continue to gain steam and jump another 10-20%. If a case or two come available, those will be up in the 20-30% range since the big dogs have deep pockets.

    The stuff from 1981-1986 has hit a plateau for the time being since it is still fairly plentiful. Sealed cases from this era will continue to sell quickly, but boxes have been sitting on BBCE for much longer at current prices. I do think football and basketball from 1981-1986 has a bit more room to the upside. The next big jump in early 80's stuff will come about 5 years from now as the kids that grew up ripping this stuff turn 40-50 years old and hit their peak earning years. This is exactly what is happening to material from 1975-1980 right now.

    With all the ripping still going on as seen in the strong PSA submission volume, unopened will remain king for a long while. It is getting much harder to find clean boxes and cases from 1965-1985 than it was even 3 years ago. That said, anything post 1987 will take an eternity to jump in value since the company's ran those presses 24/7. >>



    Great assessment, agreed!!
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