My Group Case Break Results Modern (2012 Flawless and Immaculate BKB)

3BoyzTrading

I thought I'd start a thread to share my Group Break results. I've recently been caught in the player prospect storm the last 8 months and have enjoyed almost every minute of it. It does have its ups and downs.I usually participate in large baseball player drafts and will sometimes dive into a football or basketball breaks if I'm enthusiastic about the product. Before I get into the results, here is the usual breakdown of how a Player Draft works for new releases. Simply, a trusted host does the following; the checklist is released by the company and the base set checklist total is divided into the total case price. Add in S&H/PP fees and that's the cost per slot. Obviously the slot price increases the more cases. To reduce the cost per slot, more are added by giving a specific insert set it's own slot in each case. Typically there are multiple insert sets. Once the break is filled and paid for, it's randomized live on random.org and the player draft begins. This can last for a few days to a week. The product is then broken live on UStream or a smiliar site, results are shown and then shipped to each participant. I'm currently participating in a 15 case Bowman Draft break that is yet to be randomized or drafted. I'll be posting the details of it from the slot choices, random results, player selections and reasoning behind it. I paid roughly $40 per slot and took 6 for a total of $240. Hopefully I'll get my money's worth.

Slot breakdown:15 Cases 2013 Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects (Includes 2013 MLB Draft Picks)
(299 total)
Chrome Draft Picks & Parallels - 130
Chrome Top Prospects & Parallels - 45
Chrome Rookies & Parallels - 45
Chrome Autographs and Parallels - 47
Non Chrome Color - 5 (Per 3 Cases) (The regular base set isn't chrome but paper,considered paper parallels)
All Ice - 5 (Per 3 Cases) (Parallel of Chrome set, separate to decrease slot price)
Dual Draftees & Autographs/Parallels - 5 (Per 3 Cases) Insert Set
Breakouts with Die cuts/Autos - 5 (Per 3 Cases) Insert Set
Future of Franchise Inserts - 5 (Per 3 Cases) Insert Set
All Time Bowman RC Sapphire Inserts - 5 (Per 3 Cases) Insert Set
AFLAC /Perfect Game/Under Armour Autographed Cards - 1 spot for all 15 cases Insert Set
High Risk Inserts (MLB Draft Day Memorabilia Redemption, Draft Night Autographs, 2013 SiriusXM ALL-STAR Futures Game Relic Cards, Bowman Black) - 1 Spots for all 15 cases

When everything is paid for and randomed, I'll post my draft pick spots.

Here are some recent results from other breaks I've particpated in.
2012 Bowman Draft 5 case break: Addison Russell Blue Refractor Auto (x2) and Tyrone Taylor Gold Refractor Auto
2013 Bowman Draft Jumbo 10 case break: Nothing of note

UPDATE: 20 DEC The live random has been completed and of 299 spots I drew the following picks; 60,84,106,173,191,213
I'll need to make the right selections to break even with this group.

UPDATE:27 DEC The draft has been completed and I selected the following: (All base chrome)
60. All Ice Case 7-9 + Jumbo Box 3
84. All Paper Color Case 13-15 + Extra Hobby Box
106. Miguel Sano
173. Joey Gallo
191. Trey Williams
213. Kendall Coleman
274. Orrin Sears

3BoyzTrading

The host broke two cases immediately after the draft and I hit the following:
Case 1
Joey Gallo Orange Refractor /25
Trey Williams Green Refractor /75
Kendall Coleman Green Refractor /75

Case 2
Nothing of note

Hitting three color refractors in one case was lucky as the Case 2 results show. There are about a dozen color refractors per case. Those are some solid prospects there with Joey Gallo leading the way.

3BoyzTrading

Final Case Results

60. All Ice Case 7-9 + Jumbo Box 3 (Hits: Joseph Monge Red/25, Christian Yelich Red/25, Michael Wacha Silver,Dustin Peterson Purple Ice/10)
84. All Paper Color Case 13-15 + Extra Hobby Box (Hits: Nothing of note) Approx. 30 Paper Color Parallels
106. Miguel Sano (Hits: Nothing of note) Approx. 15-20 Base Chrome
173. Joey Gallo (Hitsrange Refractor/25, Silver Wave/25) Approx. 15-20 Base Chrome
191. Trey Williams (Hits: Green Ref/75, Blue Wave) Approx. 15-20 Base Chrome
213. Kendall Coleman (Hits: Green Ref/75) Approx. 15-20 Base Chrome
274. Orrin Sears (Hits: Gold Ref/50) Approx. 15-20 Base Chrome

I'm confident I have at leat $240 in value in the players above if I sell at the right time. Hitting the two /25 Joey Gallo's and Dustin Peterson /10 are what helps me get to that even level. I haven't had a chance to sell but I will be doing that next year once I get the key cards graded. Although there are many parallel color versions, many pop depending on the team they play for. Any Dodgers and Royals cards in Blue stand out just as the Green Refractors for any Athletics. If I keep anything as a collector, it's those cards that have tremendous eye appeal.

NickM

I'm really surprised Gallo lasted that long in your draft. He has serious holes in his game but amazing power. Even if he ends up another Sam Horn, there will be some times when his rookies will be very hot.

Nick

3BoyzTrading

NEW BREAK:2013 Bowman Jumbo 10 Case Player Draft
Total Slots:248
My Slots after random and purchases: 74($37),75($35)79($26),80($25),81,89,91($25),166,231
Total: $337
SELECTIONS:
74. All Ice Parallels, Autos Case 9 (Hits: Mariano Rivera Purple Ice/10,Yu Darvish Red Ice/25)
75. All Ice Parallels, Autos Case 10 (Hits: David Price Red Ice/25, Wyatt Mathieson Red Ice/25)
79. Bowman Top 100 Prospects Case 3
80. Bowman Top 100 Prospects Case 4
81. Bowman Top 100 Prospects Case 10
89. Bowman Top 100 Prospects Case 8
91. Bowman Top 100 Prospects Case 9
166. Zach Bird
231. Ben Rowen

As of now my Top 100 spots are not paying off. I've only hit a die cut in each case. I believe I should have went with the minis instead but got caught up chasing Puig. I still have Case 9 and 10 to go so hopefully those Ice Spots hit some big name veteran players, a Jeter or Pujols /5 would be nice. Right now it's not looking so bright as far as return on investment.

Final update: Alright, I know I didn't break even on this break unless the rookie prospects pan out. I also should get about 20 of each of the players. I'll get at least half back from the Rivera and Darvish.I'll have to see what else hit when I receive the lot and go from there.

3BoyzTrading

NEW BREAK: 2012/13 Flawless Case Break Hit Draft
Total Slots: 20
Cost per Slot: $220
My slots: 1
My Pick after random: #2

Alright, so I was excited to random the #2 pick. If you dont already know, this is the most expensive "pack" of cards that have ever been created for the masses. There are 10 cards per box and 2 boxes per case. I was looking forward to the break as the Top 2 spots are usually $300+ cards. If one case were to land a Patch/AU and a Kobe/Lebron/Top Rookie base....my spot would have paid off 10 fold. However, this case sucked. The top pick was a Kobe Bryant Auto/15. The base sucked too so I went with the Tristan Thompson RC/AU. The Bird Patch/AU and Erving Patch/AU were really nice but I had to go with the possible SP rookie Auto. Here are the full case results.

BOX 1
Al Jefferson Encased Diamond Base 14/20
Larry Bird Gold Patch Auto 8/10
Walt Frazier Gold Auto 8/10
Andre Kirilenko Silver Patch 15/25
Artis Gilmore Patch Auto 1/20
Darryl Dawkins Silver Auto 20/20
Jimmer Fredette Emerald Patch 2/5
Tristan Thompson Red Auto 9/15 My Pick
James Worthy Red Patch Auto 3/15
Antawn Jamison Silver Auto 5/20

BOX 2
Gary Payton Encased Diamond Base 12/20
Kobe Bryant Encased Gold Auto 8/10 #1 Pick
Hakeem Olajuwon Silver Auto 2/20
Ralph Sampson Emerald HOF Signatures 1/5
Tony Parker Benchmarks Silver Auto 5/10
Julius Erving Silver Patch Auto 10/25
Nikola Vucevic Red Auto 13/15
Isiah Thomas Silver Patch 11/25
Rick Fox Red Auto 14/15
Eric Gordon Patch 18/21

In conclusion, I made money on this break but it was expected having the #2. I'd estimate this card to be worth $300 with upside. Only 1 has sold on eBay since November with 2 listed currently.

3BoyzTrading

NEW BREAK:2013 TOPPS CHROME 4 CASE TEAM DRAFT

Price
Case Price = $689.95 x 4 Cases = $2,759.80
Slot Price = $2759.80/32 = $86.25
Shipping & Supplies = $8.65 (Includes Priority Mail Shipping plus supplies)
Paypal = $3.31
Total = $98.21
First Slot = $98.25

Total slots: 32
My slots: 1
Randomization: #4 Draft Pick

This was an easy pick for me, the Chargers have the up and coming star WR Keenan Allen and LB Manti Teo autographs. I know I'll hit a ton of base RC's which is likely to be the PSA registry selections.

RESULTS: Between the base rookie cards and insert cards, I hit over 30 easily. I looked at two of the recaps of the cases and skipped through the recorded break of the other two. I didn't see any Chargers autos. However, the host graciously sent me a message that I hit a Keenan Allen Prism AU/15. Big boy right there! I definitely made more than my money back on this break. There have been two completed auctions that finished at $175 and $198. I'd estimate the value down the middle at $185. I would say I almost triple my original investment.

3BoyzTrading

NEW BREAK: 2013 Flawless Basketball 2 Case, Hit Draft

Total Cases: 2 (Separate randoms)
Boxes per case: 2
Cards per Box: 10

Case Cost: $4400
Spot Cost w/fees: $231

My spots after random:
Case 1: #16 and #18
Case 2: #1

I can't wait, there is a guaranteed a Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant or Kyrie Erving Autograph per case. I'm hoping for a patch autograph of Kobe,Kyrie or Lillard. Other big hits would be the base of LeBron,Kobe, Beal, Anthony Davis,Lillard or Erving.

NickM

You did very well on the Eric Fisher spot from the Contenders 20-case player auction.

Nick

3BoyzTrading

Thanks NickM, I put a few bids on that player auction and was surprised I won the Eric Fisher spot with $40. I think the break overall surprised people with the multitude of Cracked Ice/21 cards and three 1/1's. I think there were over a dozen Eddie Lacy's pulled too. That Rookie Ink spot took it to the house also.

NickM

There were 4 Championship Tickets pulled (1 rookie and 3 vets), plus a bunch of plate autos. What happened on this break was (besides a lot of people forgetting to bid) that no one had a really good idea of who is a SP or retail only, let alone which variations are SPs, so people's estimates of expected return were badly skewed.
The Rookie Ink got 26 autos, while Legendary Contenders got 3 autos IIRC. Nobody had a good sense going in of what the ratios were.
Another part of the great deals some people got is that the break went off at a significant loss.

Nick

3BoyzTrading

I think what people will find is the same number variant "different player" rookie cards will be limited /99. I'm unsure about the retail only versions as that's a lot of Wally Worlds,Targets and KMarts. I have an idea of three of the shortprints as I didn't see that they got hit. Of course, they could be retail only. I think Panini did well having the variants and cracked ice inserts. NickM,How did you end up doing?

3BoyzTrading

Well, there have been a few group rips from Blowout that I've done since my last update. I've picked up a few auto jersey cards from Flawless for a pretty penny. I ended up trading my #1 pick in Flawless for a package of picks post rip. There wasn't any particular card that stood out as a clear #1 in the case that I had it in. A Wilt Diamond base and Griffin One of One Team Panini Auto was a coin flip so I made a trade. Of course, the next break from a different rip had the best case I've ever seen with a 2/5 Kyrie Irving base, 2 One of One cards and a Damian Lillard jumbo jersey card. Otherwise, I haven't had any big hits since in the handful of breaks I am in. However, I did make a multiple box purchase from Blowout on Black Friday last year. The boxes consisted of 2006 and 2007 Contenders Football(2 and 6 boxes), 2008 Topps Chrome Baseball and 2006 SP Game Used Basketball. My sons broke some over the phone with me while I was away. Their mom sent me a few pictures as she got involved too. Upon my return this month, I dived into what was left. My little guy attempted to stay up with me as long as he could to bust packs. We split the 2006 SP Game Used and a 2008 Topps Chrome box. As we busted the BKB open, I asked him what player was on the box(LeBron James), he stated it was Michael Jordan. He is working on knowing who the greatest are! When we got to the Topps Chrome baseball, he ended up wandering over the PS3 and playing Call of Duty and said that I could break the rest. Well, getting into it, I had already hit a common auto and wasn't expecting much. When I checked the packs for odds, I saw how Superfractors were available in the product. Sure enough, the very next pack, I saw the distinct gold border. I slow rolled it online and below are the results. Thanks for reading!

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3BoyzTrading

It's been awhile since I have posted anything new. I've recently been involved with modern group breaks. Tonight's break was 2 cases(8 sets each) of the 2013 Bowman Chrome Mini Factory Sets. Each set comes with a 330 card base set and 30 random serial numbered parallel cards. You can get anything from a superfractor/1 to /125 refractors. In this break, each participant gets 16 base singles and get whatever parallels hit of each player. This was a random player group break. 330 spots at $14 each. I had 13 players total for a total buy in of $184. I sold 3 players pre break for $47. So I am $137 into the break. I almost sold another for $28 but was out when the offer came in.(Since sold) I was able to watch the recap. Thankfully, the group hit a limited edition of #/100 X fractor set. So everyone hit a serial numbered card no matter what. With 10 players(480 total parallels), I expected at least 1 of each player. I did very well and hit 16 total. The players and numbers are below. Altogether it was a great break and well worth the money. Definitely a player collector/prospectors break.

184 Jason Martin Houston Astros® (XFractor/100,Ref/125)
24 R.J. Alvarez Angels® (Black Refractor/25,Gold Refractor/50,XFractor/100)
182 Jorge Martinez Cleveland Indians® (Black Refractor/25,Green Refractor 75,Blue Refractor/99(x2),/X Fractor/100)
28 Tyler Kinley Miami Marlins™ (Black Refractor/25,XFractor/100)
104 Ronnie Freeman Arizona Diamondbacks® (Refractor/125,X Fractor/100)
215 Teddy Stankiewicz Boston Red Sox® (Green Refractor/75,X Fractor/100,Refractor/125)
287 Travis Demeritte Texas Rangers® (Gold Refractor/50,X Fractor/100,Refractor/125)
233 Deven Marrero Boston Red Sox® (Orange Refractor/25,X Fractor/100)
314 Hunter Harvey Baltimore Orioles® (Gold Refractor/50,X Fractor/100,Refractor/125) SOLD Post break for $28

3BoyzTrading

Just a few group breaks that I participated in the last month

10 Case 2013 Bowman Draft Player Random
Nolan Arenado
Gary Sanchez

5 Case 2013 Bowman Player Draft
Carlos Correa (Base) Hit: Blue refractor
Matt Wisler
Patrick Kivlehan

10 case 2013 Bowman Draft Player Draft
Evan Gattis Hit: Gold Refractor
Alex Wood
Sean Townley

3BoyzTrading

I'm going to be rather selective in my group breaks for 2014 product. I will likely only take part in Bowman baseball and Topps Chrome football product with a few high end breaks possible toward the end of the season. Here is what I have currently joined and are waiting to be filled.

15 Case 2013 Bowman Draft Player Draft
15 Case 2013 Bowman True Player Draft

Upcoming
100 case 2014 Bowman Player Draft


The 100 case break is the largest single break I will be participating in. It must be nice for a business owner to place an order for 300 cases of 2014 Bowman knowing they are all already sold. The other 200, I estimate, are for the multitude of group breaks that will happen. I know of 3 hosts that will be doing 20 case breaks at least twice. Then there are the team breaks and normal sales. I'd say modern is doing well.

3BoyzTrading

GROUP BREAK
Type: Hit Draft(51 Total Slots)
Product: 2012 Flawless Basketball(1 Case/2 Boxes), 2012 Immaculate(1 Case/6 Boxes)
Total Group Cost: $8450
Individual Slot Cost: $175

This is a product I am always looking forward too. Full of Hall of Famers, great 90's players and 2 Rookie classes. Although the price is on the high end, the risk is lessened in a group break.

My results in this were pretty good. I ended up with the #6 Draft Pick after the random. I offered up for sale and sold it after much mind numbing negotiation for $325 and the #39 Draft Pick. I also purchased the 42nd Pick for $22 post break. The results of the break were very bad for the top picks as many $40 to $100 cards were pulled. There were extra hits pulled and each randomized after the draft and I attained one. I thought I did very well. Below are my results

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