Volcker Rule!
MGLICKER
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If you do not know the term now, you probably will by weeks end.
Hint, of great importance to Stock, Bond and yes, PM traders.
Hint, of great importance to Stock, Bond and yes, PM traders.
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My question is this: What will become of the $2.4 trillion in excess bank reserves these financial organizations keep on deposit with the FED that is currently being used as collateral for the soon to end proprietary trading? Will the banks now have good reason to release this money (and the inflation it will create) to Main Street in the form of interest earning loans? Inflation may very will be an unintended consequence of the Volker Rule.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>If you do not know the term now, you probably will by weeks end.
Hint, of great importance to Stock, Bond and yes, PM traders. >>
causing the price of PMs to up or down in 2014?
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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Removal of Prop trading by large banks could have a major negative affect on stock market indexes. The last major sell off in stocks saw a a sell off of metals. I'm sure there are also arguments for how the Volker Rule could bolster metals. For the next big equity sell off one has to determine "where will money pulled from the stock market be directed?" >>
Into the "risk-free" treasury market, of course! Anything but increased lending to consumers. Expect to see bubbles in the unexpected. Who knows? The next big thing could be rare coins. $500 for a common date morgan, perhaps?
<< <i>
<< <i>Removal of Prop trading by large banks could have a major negative affect on stock market indexes. The last major sell off in stocks saw a a sell off of metals. I'm sure there are also arguments for how the Volker Rule could bolster metals. For the next big equity sell off one has to determine "where will money pulled from the stock market be directed?" >>
Into the "risk-free" treasury market, of course! >>
Risk there seems to have increased a bit since the last time (when it did go to bonds). Be interesting to see just what investors consider not only safest, but best bargain next time around. Could very well end up being metals. As for the banks they may seek revenge for the Volker Rule by redirecting the excess reserves onto Wall St.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>If you do not know the term now, you probably will by weeks end.
Hint, of great importance to Stock, Bond and yes, PM traders. >>
causing the price of PMs to up or down in 2014? >>
Glad that Derryb is here. He has much better answers than me on the potential fallout if the rule is implemented. I would think that the high flying equities market would be at risk. Metals have a mind of their own, short term down, medium term up is my thought.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>just keep in mind that for a while now all news seems to be bad news for PMs. Gotta change at some point however. >>
Maybe or maybe not. Gold is still selling at nearly 5 times the 1998 (or so) low. Quite a run which was pushed by the shyster gold promoters that many of the talk radio guys hype. I think that much of the price excess has blown off this year, but we may still have a ways down to go.
<< <i>just keep in mind that for a while now all news seems to be bad news for PMs >>
Interesting concept
Gotta change at some point however
Almost everything does, eventually.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
So, how would implementation of the Volker Rule affect Treasuries and the government's ability to continue financing operations via more debt? That's the question, in my opinion.
Since QE is already funding operations significantly, putting a crimp in the banks' ability to execute proprietary trading will attack their profitability directly and put more pressure on them to find other ways of generating replacement revenue (not that that's necessarily a bad thing).
"Prop" trading has allowed the trillions of excess dollars voluntarily on deposit with the FED to be used as collateral to inflate the stock market via prop trading.
I didn't realize this, but it certainly makes sense that the banks would fight implementation, tooth & nail.
My question is this: What will become of the $2.4 trillion in excess bank reserves these financial organizations keep on deposit with the FED that is currently being used as collateral for the soon to end proprietary trading? Will the banks now have good reason to release this money (and the inflation it will create) to Main Street in the form of interest earning loans? Inflation may very will be an unintended consequence of the Volker Rule.
Isn't that the same money ("excess bank reserves") that Bernanke kept saying could be withdrawn at will, once the economy recovered? And if I recall correctly, nobody ever mentioned the mechanism by which this would take place. I really don't think that's gonna happen. If prop trading is disallowed, won't the banks feel the need to actually keep those "excess reserves" in place, since their ability to hedge will be more restricted?
Taking into account the need for more deficit spending and possible restrictions on the banks in terms of their excess reserves, my guess is that the Volker Rule simply puts more pressure on the Fed to continue (or to increase) QE. If the economy doesn't bail out the Fed, the Fed will have to keep bailing out the banks with taxpayer money - which piles on more unsustainable debt load. Not a good scenario, especially since we don't know how deep the hole really is. If the Fed knows, they aren't talking.
I take this to mean that one fine day, a complete re-vamp of the debt and monetary system is pretty much unavoidable. At some point, a critical player won't get paid.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>...If the economy doesn't bail out the Fed, the Fed will have to keep bailing out the banks with taxpayer money - which piles on more unsustainable debt load. Not a good scenario, especially since we don't know how deep the hole really is. If the Fed knows, they aren't talking.
I take this to mean that one fine day, a complete re-vamp of the debt and monetary system is pretty much unavoidable. At some point, a critical player won't get paid. >>
The economy can't bail out The Fed because it's significantly smaller (~25%) than what we're so busy trying to prop with QE, ZIRP, deficit spending, etc. Our underlying (real?) economy is around $12 trillion/yr right now. The Fed knows the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming freight train but they have been directed by the forces that be (D.C., Wall Street) to keep bailing the ship.
And yes, one fine day a complete re-vamp, reset will be required. We can continue to shuffle the deck for a few more years and maybe even a decade but we will have to deal the cards and show our hand eventually. Many critical players won't be getting paid and they'll be hell to pay for it. Detroit is one domino......