Email from mint............Last call 2012 Spouse Gold

2manycoins2fewfunds

Looks like they will end the 2012 Gold Spouse coins this month.

Several are at present still at or below 3,000 and even 2,500 sales levels.

Opportunity or value trap??

Opinions...............

Overdate

Sales for uncirculated 2012 Spouses are presently around 2300 each, except for Alice Paul at 2700+. Those numbers are low in absolute terms, but higher than the key 2011 Lucretia Garfield with an estimated final total of 2167. So I don't expect the 2012 unc. Spouses to be big winners in the foreseeable future (unless gold skyrockets).

The proofs could be a different story. Alice Paul is sold out with the lowest proof mintage of the series, at 3505 (and this number could go lower). The other three 2012 coins have sales around 3000 each at the moment. Collectors tend to gravitate toward the proofs, so if the 2012 proofs wind up with mintages of 3500 or less, they could be decent intermediate or long term holds regardless of the gold price.

jmski52

the key 2011 Lucretia Garfield with an estimated final total of 2167

I still don't know how we can't get a final mintage on the 2011s but we easily accept the numbers being published for the 2012s.....anyone have thoughts about that?

Overdate

<< <i> the key 2011 Lucretia Garfield with an estimated final total of 2167

I still don't know how we can't get a final mintage on the 2011s but we easily accept the numbers being published for the 2012s.....anyone have thoughts about that? >>


My thinking is that weekly sales numbers are reasonably accurate up to the point that a coin goes to backorder. Until backorder status occurs, all sales orders are fufilled. Once a backorder is announced, many additional orders flow in from collectors/investors hoping to obtain some of these coins before a sellout occurs. Orders that exceed the quantity of coins available are cancelled, but typically these cancellations are not being reflected in the final weeks' sales totals issued by the Mint. So the final week's sales totals are often higher than the actual number of coins sold, and this number is often not corrected until a few years later.

In the case of the uncirculated Lucretia Garfield First Spouse coin, the final sales total in the weekly Mint report was 2,498. But Coinweek did some investigating and discovered that only 2,167 were shipped - a net mintage reduction of over 300. Most, maybe all of the cancelled orders were placed in the final week of sales - around 500 orders had been placed that week, likely in response to the coin going to backorder status on the Mint's website.

kiyote

Caroline Harrison proof currently has sales of 2,913. I just can't see them moving more than a hundred here in the last three weeks of the year, but we'll see. On a side note, the reverse looks great, in my opinion.

Raufus

<< <i>Sales for uncirculated 2012 Spouses are presently around 2300 each, except for Alice Paul at 2700+. Those numbers are low in absolute terms, but higher than the key 2011 Lucretia Garfield with an estimated final total of 2167. So I don't expect the 2012 unc. Spouses to be big winners in the foreseeable future (unless gold skyrockets).

The proofs could be a different story. Alice Paul is sold out with the lowest proof mintage of the series, at 3505 (and this number could go lower). The other three 2012 coins have sales around 3000 each at the moment. Collectors tend to gravitate toward the proofs, so if the 2012 proofs wind up with mintages of 3500 or less, they could be decent intermediate or long term holds regardless of the gold price. >>



The last reports that I've seen have Hayes (2263) not Garfield (2498) as the low mintage key.

First Spouse Mintages

Of course, as Overdate notes, the story is not totally settled yet.

It's interesting how much that the keys have dropped.

I sold a J. Tyler MS70FS for nearly $4K when it was clear to me that she would be unseated. The Hayes and Garfield MS70FS aren't close to that.

Coins101

<< <i>Caroline Harrison proof currently has sales of 2,913. I just can't see them moving more than a hundred here in the last three weeks of the year, but we'll see. On a side note, the reverse looks great, in my opinion. >>



Based upon the mint's data, isn't the Harrison Proof the new Proof king?

frostbyte3964

The 2012's are all showing sold out. Any clue where to find the final numbers for printing?

There seems to be a steady drop in sales for this series. I read another thread that said the mint was talking about discontinuing any coins with less than 10k in total sales. Would that mean they would likely cancel this series?

pf70collector

Coinupdate.com


Coinupdate.com

Harrison Proof now stands as the key for the proofs now. Very little was sold the last week, which surprises me a little.

frostbyte3964

Why do you say the Caroline Harrison is the key? Aren't there a few in the 2000's from before the 2012's? It seems to be the lowest of the 2012's, but I think Alice Paul was under 2200. This says Harrison is over 3000 barely. Am I missing something?

Casman

<< <i>Why do you say the Caroline Harrison is the key? Aren't there a few in the 2000's from before the 2012's? It seems to be the lowest of the 2012's, but I think Alice Paul was under 2200. This says Harrison is over 3000 barely. Am I missing something? >>




In a pinch see this for reference:

Spouse mintage link Proof and UNC

And, maybe you're thinking of the UNCS and not the Proofs, keys for both in terms of mintage.

frostbyte3964

Thanks. That list shows a lower number than the other link for Caroline Harrison's by about 300 different. Either way, it seems they are far less than other years. I'm curious why the 2009 Tyler's seem to be so much more expensive even though their sales seem quite a bit higher? Same with the Van Buren liberty. Shouldn't they get progressively more expensive the fewer that get sold or at least on a scale showing the less minted, the more expensive? Clearly the 2007's will not likely ever be much over spot with how many there are so no matter what the demand is, there will likely be plenty of those.

Casman

<< <i>Thanks. That list shows a lower number than the other link for Caroline Harrison's by about 300 different. Either way, it seems they are far less than other years. I'm curious why the 2009 Tyler's seem to be so much more expensive even though their sales seem quite a bit higher? Same with the Van Buren liberty. Shouldn't they get progressively more expensive the fewer that get sold or at least on a scale showing the less minted, the more expensive? Clearly the 2007's will not likely ever be much over spot with how many there are so no matter what the demand is, there will likely be plenty of those. >>




The prior link hasn't been updated yet to reflect the final sales of the 2012's, but prior years are included. The 2012 numbers can be taken from here:

Link

Van Buren is popular because of the classic design. The Tyler's were expensive as once the key and not sure if that's still the case. I haven't followed these for years so not sure what's going on, but I do remember a lot of the 2007's were melted when gold spiked awhile back so how many are left is an unknown.

jmski52

There seems to be a steady drop in sales for this series. I read another thread that said the mint was talking about discontinuing any coins with less than 10k in total sales. Would that mean they would likely cancel this series?

The Mint can only make decisions that affect things such as types of finish, packaging, sales options, and denomination, but they can't halt a series that's been written into law. Congress can do that, but I don't see that happening with the Spouses.

TwoSides2aCoin

Not every wine ages to perfection. With only so many wine bottles to choose from , and from that perspective, it looks like opportunity knocks and value traps wait. The beauty of the program is that the fewer people take interest in them, the more value is added … later on. Sometimes much later on. Sometimes ? Who am I kidding? Surely not a numismatist.

frostbyte3964

It may end up being a collection without much added value, but my guess is that the longer time goes and the fuller the collection, the more people will find interest in it. It is a tough collection as it is going to be very large though. That might take some of the appeal away. I hate the years they throw in 5 coins instead of 4. It's tough trying to keep up with 2 oz a year and 2.5 is just a bit more difficult. I am also collecting all the $1 coins so when it's done, hopefully I'll have every president and spouse. That should make a nice collection to pass on to one of my kids.

gyromac

One of the winners will come from 2011 or 2012. Pick one. Who knows until the USMint does it magic and finalizes numbers - it is that close with some of the numbers.

Unless gold skyrockets in the next 3 years the acquisition cost of raw spouses will remain normalized and with all the info on the web there is no way that a sleeper low mintage spouse will slip through the cracks going forward. Too many eyes on the topic now.

As far as shutting the series down - Really? 7 years in and 3 or so to go. Doubt it.

Yes - it is a fine bottle of wine series. Collect it all and you have already won. Let it age and enjoy its beauty - the value will be truly realized one day.

Late to the game - well you are paying premium now for not paying attention to something the USMint begged you to for years. Hmmm.. Reminds me of Jackie Robinson. History does repeat itself.

jmho

gyros

Happy New Year!

tincup

<< <i>Thanks. That list shows a lower number than the other link for Caroline Harrison's by about 300 different. Either way, it seems they are far less than other years. I'm curious why the 2009 Tyler's seem to be so much more expensive even though their sales seem quite a bit higher? Same with the Van Buren liberty. Shouldn't they get progressively more expensive the fewer that get sold or at least on a scale showing the less minted, the more expensive? Clearly the 2007's will not likely ever be much over spot with how many there are so no matter what the demand is, there will likely be plenty of those. >>




The Tyler and Van Buren are more expensive because of much greater demand. For those presidents, they did not have wives while in office. So, the US Mint instead provided a different portrait of Miss Liberty as some earlier US coins (for example, the portrait on a US large cent). Much more in demand, a very attractive subset, and thus the prices to show for it. They will cost you quite a bit more.

wondercoin

Gyros. You just can not be sure. The mint could end sales of the 2013 coins tomorrow creating 10 rarities in 2013 and sending the coins of 2011/2012 to the scrap pile. This is what we are dealing with!!

So, is it sexist to actually like a spouse coin with a pretty woman on it? Maybe that is a future determinator of value? I have read on more than one occasion here how Julia Tyler is an attractive woman and her coin is still going strong. Lol.

2007 coins doubled in value in less than five years with mintages nearly 7x those of 2012!! Let us not forget the obvious ... A half oz. of (near) pure gold as the second way to win with every spouse coin.

Just my 2 cents. Wondercoin.

jmski52

The mint could end sales of the 2013 coins tomorrow creating 10 rarities in 2013 and sending the coins of 2011/2012 to the scrap pile. This is what we are dealing with!!

I've been thinking that myself. Anything can happen especially when the Mint reported striking difficulties for a couple of months just prior to release, near the end of the year. The question is - how many?

wondercoin

Yes, and then 2014 could deliver the next twist and turn! And so on. When I think of all the money I have already spent on spouse coins!! Man, the future should be very interesting for this series. Come to think of it, wouldn't it be funny if the Kennedy turned out to be the key when all the dust settled! Bring on the final 3 years!! Wondercoin.

gyromac

Yes I know the USMint could shut it down tomorrow - any thing is possible but just think they let the first 30 or so spouses go minimum 12 months of sales....and most of those spouses had no immediate living descendants....cant imagine they will not do the same for the last 12 or 13 given the extremely litigious/politically correct society we now live in with the possibility of not offending someone who can pull that legal suit card..the powers that run the USMint aren't THAT dumb....

jmho

Coinsponge

<< <i>Yes, and then 2014 could deliver the next twist and turn! And so on. When I think of all the money I have already spent on spouse coins!! Man, the future should be very interesting for this series. Come to think of it, wouldn't it be funny if the Kennedy turned out to be the key when all the dust settled! Bring on the final 3 years!! Wondercoin. >>



Wondercoin, not to quibble but there is no way Kennedy will be a key. Judging by what some have said in the past that is the only coin of the series they want. But I agree it would be funny.

wondercoin

Mintage 3,000, 1 per household and Kennedy becomes the hands down Queen overnight. Would I trade my Harrison proof for a Kennedy if that happened? In a NY second. Will it happen? I agree it is highly unlikely. But, who would have thought the mint would sell 10 new spouse coins in about the last 6 weeks of the year? Anyway, regarding a short print of, say, Truman coins creating a rarity overnight... I highly doubt any Trumans would protest their Grandmother being the Key coin to the spouse collection. Just my 2 cents. Wondercoin.

tincup

So far, the sales figures for the 2013 seem very strong to me. If they continue with demand, there will likely be another run for each of the issues. Of course if that happens, there will be no keys for the year. (Unless the scenario previously mentioned where they stop sales).

Raufus

<< <i>

<< <i>Why do you say the Caroline Harrison is the key? Aren't there a few in the 2000's from before the 2012's? It seems to be the lowest of the 2012's, but I think Alice Paul was under 2200. This says Harrison is over 3000 barely. Am I missing something? >>




In a pinch see this for reference:

Spouse mintage link Proof and UNC

And, maybe you're thinking of the UNCS and not the Proofs, keys for both in terms of mintage. >>



Of course, that still shows Hayes and not Garfield as the key. It's amazing that the Mint has not released the final, audited figures on this yet. Just incredible.

Raufus

Spouse gold question (not pertaining to the '12's but this is the most recent spouse thread so I figured I'd ask here):

I have become more convinced that either Hayes or Garfield will be the low mintage keys to the Spouse series. I don't have a Garfield. I happened to be looking on FeeBay and noticed a PCGS MS69 Garfield with a BIN of $995 which has just been posted - i.e., within the hour.

A quick search of current and completed auctions turned up nothing near this low. However, there were no 69s sold and only one sealed with brought $1350 in early Nov. Despite that I usually buy only 70s or sealed, I just couldn't resist and I bought it. Do you all think that this was a good buy or not so much?

Thanks for any thoughts.

frostbyte3964

I got my Garfield and Hayes from APMEX. I do not do MS, but Proof's. The MS does seem unusually high for some reason, but I got proof 69's for $815 and $820. I totally want nothing to do with MS coins unless they are at near spot prices personally.

Raufus

<< <i>I got my Garfield and Hayes from APMEX. I do not do MS, but Proof's. The MS does seem unusually high for some reason, but I got proof 69's for $815 and $820. I totally want nothing to do with MS coins unless they are at near spot prices personally. >>



I like the proofs better as well.

The MS bring more $ in the case of these two because they are the low mintage keys for the Spouse series so far. Which of the two will come in lower in the end is not settled yet as has been discussed recently.

Overdate

<< <i>Spouse gold question (not pertaining to the '12's but this is the most recent spouse thread so I figured I'd ask here):

I have become more convinced that either Hayes or Garfield will be the low mintage keys to the Spouse series. I don't have a Garfield. I happened to be looking on FeeBay and noticed a PCGS MS69 Garfield with a BIN of $995 which has just been posted - i.e., within the hour.

A quick search of current and completed auctions turned up nothing near this low. However, there were no 69s sold and only one sealed with brought $1350 in early Nov. Despite that I usually buy only 70s or sealed, I just couldn't resist and I bought it. Do you all think that this was a good buy or not so much?

Thanks for any thoughts. >>


I think it was an excellent buy! I would guess current fair value at $1200+. And a good chance for the coin to appreciate further.

pf70collector

So far, the sales figures for the 2013 seem very strong to me. If they continue with demand, there will likely be another run for each of the issues. Of course if that happens, there will be no keys for the year. (Unless the scenario previously mentioned where they stop sales).

There will be no second run for the 2013s, since this is 2014. What the mint has now is all there will be. Maybe around 3500 is my guess for each coin, but who knows. Better watch these carefully when these go red, that will be it.

I only collect the liberty series and the spouse medal sets and occasionally will try to purchase a potential key from the mint when they go red.(backorder status).

I will be watching 2013s closely.

Raufus

<< <i>

<< <i>Spouse gold question (not pertaining to the '12's but this is the most recent spouse thread so I figured I'd ask here):

I have become more convinced that either Hayes or Garfield will be the low mintage keys to the Spouse series. I don't have a Garfield. I happened to be looking on FeeBay and noticed a PCGS MS69 Garfield with a BIN of $995 which has just been posted - i.e., within the hour.

A quick search of current and completed auctions turned up nothing near this low. However, there were no 69s sold and only one sealed with brought $1350 in early Nov. Despite that I usually buy only 70s or sealed, I just couldn't resist and I bought it. Do you all think that this was a good buy or not so much?

Thanks for any thoughts. >>


I think it was an excellent buy! I would guess current fair value at $1200+. And a good chance for the coin to appreciate further. >>



Thanks. I was on the edge having found no 69s which sold recently however the prices being asked for the 69s were way high. I hope that this turns out to be a good purchase.

tincup

With the latest mint sales report out... looks like the proof Garfield is no longer the lowest proof.

Alice Paul --- 3505

Cleveland 1st --- 3121

Harrison --- 3046

Cleveland 2nd --- 3104


Even the BU Cleveland 2nd is only 162 coins more than the Lucy Hayes....

frostbyte3964

Does anyone know if there is an actual end to the series or are they planning to just complete all the spouses indefinitely?

kiyote

I have 2 uncs but I agree the proofs look a LOT better in hand. On top of that, the proof mintages are getting really low. Ugh. It's hard to know what spouses to chase.

Raufus

Did I miss any news about the Garfield Unc?

I noticed that an Ebay seller had posted two Garfield PCGS MS70FS on FeeBay late last night w/a BIN of $1599. This is $750 less than the BO accepted for the same coin on Jan. 14. I thought that they would sell immediately. Still, being a BIN or BO, I offered $1480 for each. One of them sold at the BIN. To my surprise a few hours later the seller accepted my BO of $1480 for the other.

My understanding is that the Garfield is thought to be the low mintage Spouse key thus far despite the "official" but not final sales numbers stating otherwise. Based on the lower recent sales I was wondering whether I missed something of not. I am still comfortable with my purchase but I wanted to ask the Forum whether there has been any news on these that I've missed.

Thanks.

Overdate

Little news, price might have recently softened a little due to tax time and some money chasing 2012 spouses and silver ATB 5oz coins. Garfield is still likely the low mintage key, but most of the 2012 unc. spouses have mintages of only a few hundred more, so there is some competition.

Some money is also going into the 2012 proof spouses - the Caroline Harrison proof at 3,064 is the lowest mintage U.S. proof coin of the 21st Century, and in my opinion the best value of all the spouses, since the proofs will ultimately see much more *collector* demand than the uncirculateds.

2manycoins2fewfunds

I recently was looking on Ebay for the sold prices on the 2012 spouse coins

It seems there is little if any premium for FS or graded spouse coins in general when compared to raw coins with OGP.

Actually the OGP consistently beat the 69 coins and seem to equal or exceed realized prices for the 7-s.

Is the jig up??

Have people begun to lose interest in the FS folly and 69/70 game??

Overdate

<< <i>Have people begun to lose interest in the FS folly and 69/70 game?? >>


I doubt it. For most of the PCGS graded 2012 spouses, around 90% are First Strikes, and 40% to 80% are MS70/PR70. Plus PCGS alone has graded 20% to 25% of the entire 2012 spouse mintage. So there is an ample supply to go around in all permutations.

Despite their miniscule mintages, none of the 2012 spouses have very high premiums to melt. This is likely due to a combination of a weak economy, income tax season, and waiting to see if any of the 2013 final mintages come in lower.

Type2

Looking at the mintage looks like a drop every year. If you hold off you can get in at a 1000 in a year or two.