Anyone have the stones to short the stock market?

carew4me

Just askin Whats goes up ..keeps going up!

QE market distortion ...distorts market logic!

If so what is your metals play?

Based on deflationary pressure so as to take down metals as well?

So tempting to wager big on SDS or the like. Gamblers thrill is all.

2014 what say ye!

derryb

Don't fight the FED. QE and more QE will keep equities lining the pockets of the trading arm of too big too fail banks. Those little green arrows pointing upward on the ticker at the bottom of the TV screen will continue to provide America with a false sense of economic security. Now back to our regularly schedule program right after this commercial for refinancing your mortgage.

s4ny

The stock market is getting pretty frothy. Lot's of IPO's that are doubling like TCS (Container Store) which
isn't even making a profit and went public Friday.

Twitter IPO on Thursday could be of significance.

Also some extreme valuations like AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, etc.

Never know when the party is going to end, but probably getting close.

That said, the quickest profits are in the final stages of a bull market.

The S&P 500 is 264% of its March 2009 low, not including dividends.
Pretty impressive.

tincup

I agree with 'don't fight the Fed". but I can't help but believe there is a trap in jumping into the market, and the powers that be will spring it shut when enough investors jump in. I am jittery with it.

Baley

I've never shorted anything; some folks might call it a "have the stones" move to make a wager with limited upside and unlimited downside, I call it something else. I also do not sell naked options, for the same reason. Covered, different story. I also do not buy "the stock market" but make sector and specific security bets. Curious to hear if anyone answers the OP question in the affirmative, and what their reasoning and targets are.

VanHalen

<< <i>Don't fight the FED. QE and more QE will keep equities lining the pockets of the trading arm of too big too fail banks. Those little green arrows pointing upward on the ticker at the bottom of the TV screen will continue to provide America with a false sense of economic security. Now back to our regularly schedule program right after this commercial for refinancing your mortgage. >>



Worth repeating:

1) Don't fight The Fed. 'Nuf said.

2) ...QE will keep equities lining the pockets of the trading arm of too big too fail banks. Scary isn't it? The same banks that crashed the economy are the primary beneficiaries of QE and are STILL too big to fail.

3) ...a false sense of economic security. Only applies to the top quintile of Americans. 250 million Americans have no sense of economic security. Or have no sense period.

4) Now back to our regularly scheduled program...

derryb

<< <i>I agree with 'don't fight the Fed". but I can't help but believe there is a trap in jumping into the market, and the powers that be will spring it shut when enough investors jump in. I am jittery with it. >>


I agree.

carew4me

<< <i>I've never shorted anything; some folks might call it a "have the stones" move to make a wager with limited upside and unlimited downside, I call it something else. I also do not sell naked options, for the same reason. Covered, different story. I also do not buy "the stock market" but make sector and specific security bets. Curious to hear if anyone answers the OP question in the affirmative, and what their reasoning and targets are. >>



Isn't that the beauty of it. The markets move BOTH directions. If drive in one direction - how do you ever get home

Replace "short the market", with "strategic inverse wagers on targeted over-bought sectors utilizing proven methods like inverse ETFs, puts, fear indexing etc..etc..etc".

But because is a simple message board and framing and clarity can draw response...

"Dudes, who has the cajones to be King Contrarian???"


Will tapering scare the market downward when it occurs...priced in now.. maybe..but nothing like actual announcement that tapering is ending..quick scalp only if you are in when it happens..scary wait.

Will ObamaCareless prove to be a gut punch to the middle class in 2014...putting a chill on consumer spending as rising premiums eat up income?

renman95

"ObamaCareless" will probably dampen J6P's market participation in 2014 when they find their "Careless" costs much more than promised.

derryb

The dot.FED bubble will pop, but not soon. Timing depends on QE. They will pump until they are pumping air.

According to Paul Brodsky the chart "suggests that ever-increasing credit growth is struggling to maintain economic production. The US is now producing as much new debt as goods and services."

How long this can continue will play a pivotal role in equity outlook. Appears to have begun about 2008. Coincidence? Not at all. A direct result of giving fortunes to banks. Further evidence that long term QE is not a good thing.

cladking

Shorting the market could be hugely profitable but I'd keep my stops close and plan on losing money.

cohodk

I "short the market" all the time. I also short individual stocks, sectors, industry groups, and asset classes.

While I am not short the "market", I do hold a short on the biotech sector.

Technically the nasdaq is up against the top of a trend channel (around 4000) which should preclude any meaningful advance. Same for the SP-500. Stocks either trade sideways for 6-9 months or decline 10-20%. In this scenario I find it best to hold cash---not unlike the wealth as referred to in another thread. I find cash preferable to other asset classes because of liquidity and lack of other relative value asset classes.

I am not afraid, nor do I expect any dollar collapse, so I sleep comfortably holding cash in the bank and other financial institutions until other opportunities arise.

derryb

When its time to short the market, my preferred tool will be VXX. At that time volatility will be unbelievable.

WestySteve

You guys!

You don't have to short the market. Here's what I'm doing....this is not investment advice. I placed a buy order with a stop on an inverse ETF such as ticker: TZA. The trigger point is way beyond the trading range, as determined from bollinger bands.

Then, when the market dumps, and drops far below it's (statistically probable) trading range, the price of TZA will rise high enough to trigger a big purchase of it. And then the increasing value of TZA will help cover the decreasing value of the rest of your portfolio in a market collapse.

This should work if one places their buy point for TZA well above it's normal trading range, and remember to move the buy-in point periodically. I don't want to buy TZA only to have the market rebound. Also, stops, or trailing stops on the rest of my portfolio are set up.