1958 Australia Shilling for $3800!?!?

brg5658

Am I missing something about this coin? I'm not a collector of Australian coins, but apparently there was a bit of "label fever" over this one.

Maybe Greg (gmarguli) will chime in as it was one of his auctions -- did you expect this coin to sell for THAT much?

Australia 1958-M Shilling
Graded PCGS MS67, pop 2/0 (but only 38 total graded)
Mintage: 7.41 million

ajaan

Good year. Outrageous price? I would like to know also.

STLNATS

Buying the plastic?

brg5658

<< <i>Buying the plastic? >>



Me thinks. That's a very spendy piece of plastic!

Dennis88

Mark (Mnemtsas2) will be able to chime in on this as well...I sold a MS-66 to him recently and I know he sold it quickly once it reached Australia...high-grade pre-decimal stuff in PCGS holders seems to be in extreme demand right now. The two MS-67's in the population were recently graded.

Walter

It's worth that, top grade Aussie pre-decimal always sells well.

brg5658

<< <i>Mark (Mnemtsas2) will be able to chime in on this as well...I sold a MS-66 to him recently and I know he sold it quickly once it reached Australia...high-grade pre-decimal stuff in PCGS holders seems to be in extreme demand right now. The two MS-67's in the population were recently graded. >>



The fact that the two MS67s were recently graded leads me to believe that, of the 7.4 million minted, there are still some very high grade examples out there. People can spend their money on whatever they wish, but I would fathom that if PCGS grading is that popular in Australia there will be a lot more of these "made" in MS67 (and possibly higher). The whole idea of "top pop" in the world coin market when, for example, PCGS has graded only 38 of this coin total is misleading.

Again, this isn't my area and I don't know the market, but if even one more MS67 is made, I don't think $3800 would be an achievable repeat sale price. I follow Greg's auctions often, but it annoys me that all of the bidding is "private". It would offer more insight if we could see whether all of the bidding was between two people beyond $1500 or something.

PBRat

Wow.

Anyone want to buy / broker my 1957 PCGS MS67 Shilling? It's a 1/0, and has been since I bought it in 2008.

Type2

Wow and i pass on alot of them when i see them.

mnemtsas2

In the last 12 months prices for Australian PCGS coins in top grades have been getting (frankly) insane prices. 3-4 very deep pocketed collectors are fighting it out on the registries and don't seem to care much what they pay. No different to what goes on over on the liteside with modern material. There's not a lot of depth to the market though. The first 3 coins at a given grade are worth a lot. The fourth one might be worth half or even a quarter of that because the big boys have theirs. It's an expensive game I can't ever hope to afford to play. I prefer to find them raw myself anyway

mnemtsas2

<< <i>Wow.

Anyone want to buy / broker my 1957 PCGS MS67 Shilling? It's a 1/0, and has been since I bought it in 2008. >>



Sent it to Walter Eigner (http://numismatics.com.au) or Chris Buesnell (http://pacificrimcoins.com.au/), they both run online auctions that have been getting great prices. Or consign it to gmarguli and put it up on eBay. I think you'd be doing yourself a dis-service selling a 1/0 Australian coin in anything but an auction right now.

mnemtsas2

<< <i>Wow and i pass on alot of them when i see them. >>



You don't see MS67's. UNC 1957 shillings are common. Even choice. But MS67? Not at all.

JerseyJoe

I have to agree with brg5658. I have shopped on MA shops
Sort of a coin shop mall. They claim to have 500,000 coins for sale but only 30 graded by PCGS or NGC and most of them U.S. coins.

I have purchased nice uncirc. world coins there.

nealeffendi

<< <i>Wow.

Anyone want to buy / broker my 1957 PCGS MS67 Shilling? It's a 1/0, and has been since I bought it in 2008. >>


You must have been thrilled when Walter recently told you it sold for $10,700 (about 9,000 USD).
What did you think it would make? Did you buy it already slabbed or did you get a raw coin slabbed?
mnentas2 has the market figured out, seems that if the top of the pops has at least 5 coins then prices are about a grand but as the numbers go down the price goes up as just a handful of collectors have complete sets and need to compete.

PBRat

You must have been thrilled when Walter recently told you it sold for $10,700 (about 9,000 USD). What did you think it would make? Did you buy it already slabbed or did you get a raw coin slabbed? mnentas2 has the market figured out, seems that if the top of the pops has at least 5 coins then prices are about a grand but as the numbers go down the price goes up as just a handful of collectors have complete sets and need to compete.

Amazed is a better word to describe my feelings. I had no idea what it would sell for ... I relied on the guidance of the resident experts mnemtsas2 and Dennis88 to consign it to Walter Eigner for auction. Thanks Mark and Dennis, and also to Walter for his excellent handling of the entire transaction. I would highly recommend NumisBid http://www.numisbid.com.au/ to anyone.

I bought the coin already slabbed, off of eBay, from former board member Cameron Kiefer (RIP) in Sept 2008. Kinda sad to part with it, given the provenance, but a profit is a profit. If anyone wants to offer me crazy money for another pop 1/0 PCGS MS 67 I purchased from Cameron, I'm listening. It's a 1958 Madagascar Franc Ya, I didn't think so.

brg5658

Conditional rarities in world coin series, for the long haul, are in my opinion a fool's game. It's great if you can get one sold for big money before the next 5 - 10 are graded. The two main TPG services have simply not seen any of these coins, so the "pop 1" business is simply a function of very few graded.

This is just my opinion, but $10,000 for a coin like that can't possibly be sustained, even if only one or 2 more are ever graded in the next decade.

nealeffendi

<< <i>Conditional rarities in world coin series, for the long haul, are in my opinion a fool's game. It's great if you can get one sold for big money before the next 5 - 10 are graded. The two main TPG services have simply not seen any of these coins, so the "pop 1" business is simply a function of very few graded.
This is just my opinion, but $10,000 for a coin like that can't possibly be sustained, even if only one or 2 more are ever graded in the next decade. >>



When grading was in its infancy in America I'm sure that there were more Top of the Pops coins in raw state than slabs. So if there was a single American coin at MS67 then and now 5 have reached that level has the price that the original MS67 slab fallen or has the bigger population of slab collectors seen prices jump?
More high grades being slabbed here in Australia would be top collectors moving their collections to slabs, when they find this leaves gaps in their collections (especially as so many coins have been dipped) then won't those collectors need to go out and bid hard to obtain the needed gem?
The market will broaden and strengthen, that $10,000 coin might cost $20,000 in a decade if a dozen deep pockets are bidding on 5-6 MS67 shillings (most which will be in tight hands).

worldcoinguy

Sometimes crazy things happen with undiscovered gems......look what happened recently with the discovery of the gold hoard (Saddle Ridge?) in California. I recall reading that there were 13 different pop tops that came out of it. I can imagine that there are some very disappointed collectors who were sitting at the top of the population mountain just a few months back.

brg5658

<< <i>

<< <i>Conditional rarities in world coin series, for the long haul, are in my opinion a fool's game. It's great if you can get one sold for big money before the next 5 - 10 are graded. The two main TPG services have simply not seen any of these coins, so the "pop 1" business is simply a function of very few graded.
This is just my opinion, but $10,000 for a coin like that can't possibly be sustained, even if only one or 2 more are ever graded in the next decade. >>



When grading was in its infancy in America I'm sure that there were more Top of the Pops coins in raw state than slabs. So if there was a single American coin at MS67 then and now 5 have reached that level has the price that the original MS67 slab fallen or has the bigger population of slab collectors seen prices jump?
More high grades being slabbed here in Australia would be top collectors moving their collections to slabs, when they find this leaves gaps in their collections (especially as so many coins have been dipped) then won't those collectors need to go out and bid hard to obtain the needed gem?
The market will broaden and strengthen, that $10,000 coin might cost $20,000 in a decade if a dozen deep pockets are bidding on 5-6 MS67 shillings (most which will be in tight hands). >>



I'm not sure what dipping has to do with anything. PCGS and NGC slab dipped coins all the time...

A graded population of 38 coins at PCGS for a coin with a mintage of 7.41 million pieces simply doesn't convince me. The MS67 surviving population is likely in the hundreds, and there are probably even a few MS68 worthy coins in there. I tend to avoid paying silly money in these kinds of situations. I'm not an oracle, and I can't know the future -- but I'm not willing to take a $10K gamble.

Zohar

To me it sounds like a must sell opportunity. Unlike 16-18th century material which we know is limited, 19-20th century coin can potentially be broad in terms of what becomes available even in such grades given larger mintage figures and better means of preservation.

EVillageProwler

This feels like a conversation that the light side has had countless times when the registry sets were first introduced that included moderns.

Some proponents on the value of the higher-end pieces turned out to be right (or not far off), like gem or super-gem clad MS Ike's or certain date/mmm that are well-struck and high grade. But, it'll take time to really learn what is their true condition rarity.

EVP

Dennis88

<< <i>

I'm not sure what dipping has to do with anything. PCGS and NGC slab dipped coins all the time...

A graded population of 38 coins at PCGS for a coin with a mintage of 7.41 million pieces simply doesn't convince me. The MS67 surviving population is likely in the hundreds, and there are probably even a few MS68 worthy coins in there. I tend to avoid paying silly money in these kinds of situations. I'm not an oracle, and I can't know the future -- but I'm not willing to take a $10K gamble. >>



I have a few questions for you:

A) do you have any idea how Australian coins are graded by collectors in Australia?

take a reasonable guess what the average pre-decimal unc grades? Hint: it's not ms-67

C) how do you think dipping is perceived by Australians or many other world countries?

cladking

<< <i>To me it sounds like a must sell opportunity. Unlike 16-18th century material which we know is limited, 19-20th century coin can potentially be broad in terms of what becomes available even in such grades given larger mintage figures and better means of preservation. >>



Indeed. But it should also be remembered that the demand can become broad.

Keep in mind that few people collect 1958 Australian silver because it is debased
junk. People want good silver and they wanted good silver in 1958 too. This means
few were likely saved and quality might not have been good. Imagine what would
happen if these were as popular as the older coins!

cladking

<< <i>This feels like a conversation that the light side has had countless times when the registry sets were first introduced that included moderns.

Some proponents on the value of the higher-end pieces turned out to be right (or not far off), like gem or super-gem clad MS Ike's or certain date/mmm that are well-struck and high grade. But, it'll take time to really learn what is their true condition rarity.

>>




It is the exact same argument isn't it.

As I've said for years, I just hope the buyer has done his homework and knows this coin is tough in this condition.

Otherwise he is very likely to be burned.

As far as Australia goes what I know is tough is most of the cu/ ni in choice condition which weren't issued in mint sets. I just
haven't seen enough of the 500 stuff in Unc condition to have a guess. As far as I know it's not very available at all in Unc. This
might not be true in Australia though.

Walter

<< <i>

<< <i>To me it sounds like a must sell opportunity. Unlike 16-18th century material which we know is limited, 19-20th century coin can potentially be broad in terms of what becomes available even in such grades given larger mintage figures and better means of preservation. >>



Indeed. But it should also be remembered that the demand can become broad.

Keep in mind that few people collect 1958 Australian silver because it is debased
junk. People want good silver and they wanted good silver in 1958 too. This means
few were likely saved and quality might not have been good. Imagine what would
happen if these were as popular as the older coins! >>



Actually unlike the UK and other colonies, we kept 50% silver in our coins until 1964.

In terms of rarity, mintages aren't a good indication for condition rarities in the Australian pre-decimal series as very few coins were individually hoarded and most of them were damaged by improper storage or cleaning. The main reason we're getting high grade pieces now is because of newly opened mint rolls and consequently demand for the rolls has surged as people search for top of the pop coins. If you have a look at the pop charts, you can see a clear correlation between the dates which have had rolls surface and their availability in high grades. As far as I know, not a single mint roll of 1957 shillings has surfaced and while there was one large hoard of about 300 coins, the coins weren't of the same quality as rolled pieces and tended to reach MS65 at best with perhaps the odd MS66.

That being said, the market is still too immature to accurately determine how the coin would be valued in the future, it's certainly a rarity in that grade and in all likeliness it's always going to be a rarity in that grade but with the current state of the market, small fluctuations in the population or market size will result in massive changes in the value.

nealeffendi

Walter would be the most experienced person in regards to slabbing Australian coins so you might know the answer to this question.
When a typical mint roll of shillings (any year) is opened how many make below MS64, how many make MS64, 65 and 66? Also how many mint rolls would typically be needed to be opened to get a single MS67? Because the answer to that would give the answer to the possibility of a '57 mint roll dropping the price at the top if more MS67s are found.
Dennis88, there is zero chance that there are hundreds of MS67 shillings out there, also zero chance that there are a couple of MS68s. Hundreds of mint rolls of shillings (mostly late dates) have been opened and not a single one has made MS68.

cladking

<< <i>

In terms of rarity, mintages aren't a good indication for condition rarities in the Australian pre-decimal series as very few coins were individually hoarded and most of them were damaged by improper storage or cleaning. The main reason we're getting high grade pieces now is because of newly opened mint rolls and consequently demand for the rolls has surged as people search for top of the pop coins. If you have a look at the pop charts, you can see a clear correlation between the dates which have had rolls surface and their availability in high grades. As far as I know, not a single mint roll of 1957 shillings has surfaced and while there was one large hoard of about 300 coins, the coins weren't of the same quality as rolled pieces and tended to reach MS65 at best with perhaps the odd MS66.

That being said, the market is still too immature to accurately determine how the coin would be valued in the future, it's certainly a rarity in that grade and in all likeliness it's always going to be a rarity in that grade but with the current state of the market, small fluctuations in the population or market size will result in massive changes in the value. >>



This is my point. People saved the old sterling coinage because it was good silver but
didn't save nearly so much of the 500 fine debased junk. I wouldn't be surprised if '58
shillings aren't easier to find in Unc than '68 10c pieces (cu/ ni).

Collectors here are picturing these '58 issues to have been saved like our '58 quarters
which were saved in the millions but the shillings were debased and not widely saved.
If they were poorly made than a Gem could be much scarcer than people realize.

All of the modern markets seem very much up in the air because no one knows. I see
so few 500 fine in Unc that I don't even have an opinion except to say that if they are
as tough at home as they are in the US they may all be underpriced.

That cu/ ni ten cents has gone from a couple dollars to $20 in the last couple years and
might be going a lot higher if there's real demand. They come pretty nice for a cu/ ni
coin. A lot of post WW II coins are really tough and most circulating issues are tough in
really nice shape because these coins were never taken seriously. Silver was removed
from the coinage in one country after another following WW II and people just quit col-
lecting the moderns.

Walter

<< <i>Walter would be the most experienced person in regards to slabbing Australian coins so you might know the answer to this question.
When a typical mint roll of shillings (any year) is opened how many make below MS64, how many make MS64, 65 and 66? Also how many mint rolls would typically be needed to be opened to get a single MS67? Because the answer to that would give the answer to the possibility of a '57 mint roll dropping the price at the top if more MS67s are found.
Dennis88, there is zero chance that there are hundreds of MS67 shillings out there, also zero chance that there are a couple of MS68s. Hundreds of mint rolls of shillings (mostly late dates) have been opened and not a single one has made MS68. >>



I had about 20 rolls of 1961 shillings (800 coins), I opened up about half of them as you only really have a shot at MS67s from the pieces struck from chrome plated dies (you can tell by the end coins). I did a quick scan through each coin looking for any pieces that looked visually perfect, from what I sent I got 12 MS67s, 1 MS66+, 63 MS66s and 6 lower grades or no grades. Some of the rest may have graded MS66, but most would be MS65 or lower.

From there we can work out that there's a 60% chance of getting an MS67 per shilling roll or approximately 2 MS67s per 3 rolls that surface.

coinkat

Interesting thread-

I thought Walter's comment about the chrome plated dies opens up a different set of questions/issues worthy of some observations and thoughts. My experience is that the Elizabeth II coins struck from chromes plated dies will have sharper details in Elizabeth's hairline and die polish is more apparent as the fields tend to look almost PL (we will leave George VI out of this because the thread started with a 1958 shilling). The non chrome plated dies usually produce a satin type look with softer details. So the discussion and issue really does not begin and end with whether the coin grades 66 or 67are rare, but whether a truly outstanding example of a non chrome plated die example can be found. Not all coins graded 65, 66 or 67 from Australia and other countries such as Canada, New Zealand and South Africa are equal as there is more to consider. From where I sit, it is the satin look in 67 that will emerge as the rarity.

Edited to Add: Part of the problem is that the grading standard for these coins needs to be consistent in view of the obvious differences in the detail based on the different dies used. Currently, the satin coins are punished and held to an unreasonable standard that can not possibly be met-Mainly because the expectation is that the hairline detail should be bold. Instead, the non chrome dies produced weaker details on the portrait so these coins should not be viewed in the same light as chrome plated examples. In addition, that difference is complicated further due the handling by the mint creating bagmarks that interrupt the details, which are weak (in focal points of the portrait), which just adds to the view that these are inferior examples.

PolishSilver

Looks like a Greg Marguli coin.

Dennis88

<< <i>Walter would be the most experienced person in regards to slabbing Australian coins so you might know the answer to this question.
When a typical mint roll of shillings (any year) is opened how many make below MS64, how many make MS64, 65 and 66? Also how many mint rolls would typically be needed to be opened to get a single MS67? Because the answer to that would give the answer to the possibility of a '57 mint roll dropping the price at the top if more MS67s are found.
Dennis88, there is zero chance that there are hundreds of MS67 shillings out there, also zero chance that there are a couple of MS68s. Hundreds of mint rolls of shillings (mostly late dates) have been opened and not a single one has made MS68. >>



I was trying to make a point to the OP as for the scarcity of these things.

I send in pre-decimal Australia to PCGS regularly and know how tough these are. I don't find many rolls here in the US but do find a few MS-64/65 singles once in awhile.

Dennis

mnemtsas2

It's the wild west down here right now with top pop coins, whether they be decimal, common pre-decimal, or rarer date pre-decimal with some eye watering prices being realized for common coins with big grades. But that's no different to what happens on the "liteside" with modern material. We now realize that some of what used to termed "common rubbish" is really tough to find in premium grades. The 1957 shilling is one of those "common rubbish" coins that those in the know realize is tough to find. It's a great time if you can accurately grade raw coins and send them to PCGS. People like Walter are really helping PCGS penetrate the market in Australia and IMHO that's only ever going to be a good thing.

It's also a great time for people wanting to buy "the best" rather than the cleaned, whizzed, dipped, rubbish that was supposedly "the finest known". Yes, perhaps if those people waited a few years they might get some coins cheaper once prices settle down but it's their hobby and who are we to say how they should spend their $$.

brg5658

<< <i>

<< <i>Walter would be the most experienced person in regards to slabbing Australian coins so you might know the answer to this question.
When a typical mint roll of shillings (any year) is opened how many make below MS64, how many make MS64, 65 and 66? Also how many mint rolls would typically be needed to be opened to get a single MS67? Because the answer to that would give the answer to the possibility of a '57 mint roll dropping the price at the top if more MS67s are found.
Dennis88, there is zero chance that there are hundreds of MS67 shillings out there, also zero chance that there are a couple of MS68s. Hundreds of mint rolls of shillings (mostly late dates) have been opened and not a single one has made MS68. >>



I was trying to make a point to the OP as for the scarcity of these things.

I send in pre-decimal Australia to PCGS regularly and know how tough these are. I don't find many rolls here in the US but do find a few MS-64/65 singles once in awhile.

Dennis >>



I get your point Dennis, but my point is that, take away the registry game competitive nature of people (which is apparently bleeding into the Australian market), and you lose this artificial price difference between a PCGS-called MS66 and PCGS-called MS67. This is just my personal opinion, and I've reitterated that it is just my opinion multiple times. $4K for a common coin from 1958 in a "gem grade" given the lack of consistency and the rampant subjectivity of coin grading just seems humorous to me.

I don't understand what point you're trying to make about dipping and world collectors, but oodles of USA and UK collectors dip coins. For all I can tell, the original MS67 coin in my first post was dipped at one point -- dipping, when done properly doesn't harm the coin to the point of being ungradeable or not being able to achieve absolute gem status. A proper dip is not noticeable, no matter how "educated" one thinks they are. And, the supposedly magical sniffer at PCGS can't detect the thiourea of a dip if properly rinsed -- that's a matter of chemistry. Anyone who thinks differently is putting blind faith in that SecurePlus "service".

Zohar

brg5658 - I share the observation yet it seems that markets go through the "hype" phase. Look at the Chinese Pandas and Chinese coins in general in the past decade. Same for Russia and now India.

I just bought four 17th century MS-65/MS-64 coins for less than this amount in total. It's all about supply and demand I guess and the Aussies are having their cycle.

mnemtsas2

<< <i>brg5658 - I share the observation yet it seems that markets go through the "hype" phase. Look at the Chinese Pandas and Chinese coins in general in the past decade. Same for Russia and now India.

I just bought four 17th century MS-65/MS-64 coins for less than this amount in total. It's all about supply and demand I guess and the Aussies are having their cycle. >>



I think that's about right. While the prices are amazing right now the depth of support is extremely thin. All it's going to take is one or two of the big fish to exit the market and go play other games and the prices at the top end will drop by 50 or even 75%. It's a great time to be selling.

nealeffendi

But will the big fish exit and even if one does it doesn't mean that prices will fall, When the Borg Collection was dispersed it was purchased by other rising big fish. The publicity of the prices those slabbed coins received boosted the interest in slabs and made it mainstream. Before then who could of believed that a 1920 penny would sell for $75,000? Some big fish thought it was worth that much and some other (under) bidder was willing to go up to that figure.
Walter did raise an interesting point about chrome dies. If chrome dies were a common thing for 1957 then there is a good chance that a MS57 will be found if a few rolls of '57 are found, but that is still dependant on rolls being stuck away during the time when a chrome die was used.
If a second '57 shilling did make MS67 and was offered the underbidder and third highest bidders are still out there waiting to upgrade their registry sets.
For all we know the holder of the current Top of the Pops coin might also bid to either have a second high grade set or even to block the competition from matching his coin.