best time to sell?

thehallmark

Does anyone have real data or compelling anecdotal evidence that it's better to sell basketball cards at the beginning, middle, or end of the season? When can you expect the most eyeballs to be on Ebay auctions?

slum22

Depends on the player. At this point I am waiting for the season to start in earnest. If you have any Durant, Lebron or Derrick Rose cards I would probably wait until some MVP chatter starts up. One example that I followed closely last year, Lebron James 2003 Topps Chrome RC PSA 10. I don't even know what it started the season at but I would venture to guess in the $100-150 range. By March it trended to the $200 range and by the time playoffs hit it was a $300 card. From the time the playoffs started to the time the Heat won the championship his card was selling on eBay for $450. The card cooled down considerably in the offseason and are back around $300. I actually think it is a buying opportunity as I think his cards will test $400 again if/when he performs at his usual MVP caliber level.

I believe every sports card (baseball, football, basketball or hockey) will sell better more in season than out of season. So I recommend looking for deals and trying to buy during the offseason and then selling during the season. The good thing about basketball is that typically the stars are very consistent so barring injury you have pretty good odds at a player maintaining his level of play. Especially if they are HOF type players like Kobe, Lebron or Durant.

The one caveat. I would be careful of first or second year players like Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard. While they are excellent players, their cards may lose some shine when they are no longer part of the Rookie Card class. They would have to jump levels into superstardom to really have a large bump. While I believe this is possible for Kyrie I am worried about his ability to stay healthy in order to make that jump. I do not think Lillard is a top 10 player in the league so once the rookie shine is off of him and we are off to the next big thing I expect his cards to level (at best) or go down (more likely).

So, to sum up, I would be a buyer of MVP candidates on contenders: Lebron, Durant or Rose and maybe even CP3 (if you can get their cards at good values). I would be a holder of Kobe. I would be a seller of Kyrie or Lillard. These are opinions and not meant to be investing advice (as cards are a collectible and not an investment).

Steve

Boopotts

Hi Dallas,

To answer your question, no- I don't think anyone has compiled any such data, or if they have I have not seen it. And as with other sports, my suspicion (and I admit it's just that) is that there's very little difference in the expected return if you sell now as opposed to later.

1985fan

<< <i>Does anyone have real data or compelling anecdotal evidence that it's better to sell basketball cards at the beginning, middle, or end of the season? When can you expect the most eyeballs to be on Ebay auctions? >>



Without anything other than a hunch to back it up, I'd suspect current players would sell better in basketball season, retired/HoFers would sell for the same amount any time of year.

thehallmark

Good insights guys, thanks.