140+ New PCGS PR70FS 2013 $50 Proof Gold Buffalos?
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After many weeks of only going up by one or two now and then the PR70 First Strike population jumps by 140+
for 2013 $50 Gold Proof Buffalos. The amount of money required to be tied up all that time in enough sealed boxes
to generate that many 70's would easily be in excess of $ 300,000 and probably closer to $ 400,000. Just goes to
show how the First Strike populations can be manipulated to the advantage of a select few.
for 2013 $50 Gold Proof Buffalos. The amount of money required to be tied up all that time in enough sealed boxes
to generate that many 70's would easily be in excess of $ 300,000 and probably closer to $ 400,000. Just goes to
show how the First Strike populations can be manipulated to the advantage of a select few.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
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Comments
-Paul
<< <i>How were the populations manipulated?
-Paul >>
There are several ways. Will not release any secrets, however the most common is to withhold quantities of inventory
until the desired time to give the appearance of a rarity that really is not.
Earlier in the year, a large company has a plan to sell pairs of Rev Proof & Regular Proof "First Strike" Buffs for the Christmas season. They buy a half million dollars worth of "regulars" and send them to PCGS well within the FS time period. They also direct PCGS to hold on to these coins to grade them in October along with (or right after) the half million dollars of Rev proof First Strike Buffs they also plan to purchase later in year (for all we know, perhaps they also want the two coins placed together in the -2- coin multi-holders). Now, right in time for the Christmas season, this company has a grand total of a million dollars worth of First Strike pairs of these neat Buffalos to sell.
Question to the OP ... in this (purely) hypothetical, did this company "manipulate the First Strike pops to its advantage"?
Wondercoin
Coinfame,Kaelasdad,Type2,UNLVino,MICHAELDIXON
Justacommeman,tydye,78saen,123cents,blue62vette,Segoja,Nibanny
Just shows the possibility among others that can cause large variations in First Strike Populations.
It could be for that reason only or the result of a different thought process. As far as your example one could also
question the advantage of holding the original ones. Again anything is possible
<< <i>Are these all going to be FS PR70 Buffalo pairs?
As I put together a pair of these myself I certainly hope not.
Not likely as the majority of the FS Regular Proofs and the FS Reverse Proofs have already been sold.
With the way the Gold market and Modern Coin market has been going it would have been a foolish
move to hold on to a quantity of these coins for a Christmas Special. The only realistic move in this market
is the dump and run.
In my life time I have seen many product manipulations from Oil to Mushrooms to Beanie babies and many others
that have resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in extra profits. I can also assure you that it is a daily occurrence
in almost every product that exists on earth. That is the essence of capitalism and good or bad it is what it is.
Tell that to the ebay seller that just sold one of these at $2,995 "Buy It Now" in the past week when sales on ebay 60-90 days ago were sub-$2,000 give or take!
Heck, I just sold one on Teletrade last Sunday for $1,950 hammer on an older consignment I gave them. I hope that buyer finds a spot on the coin and returns it!
Truth be told, squirreling away a half million of the regular proof Buffs (FS) from 2013 was probably a brilliant move as compared to "dumping them and running" 2-3 months ago! Time will tell, but I wish I had never sold a single coin a few months back along with everyone else. My website indication had been $2,099 on the coin. I directed my webmaster last night to change that by an increase of about $800 today on the coin. I could care less if I sell any more this year. Ditto on the Rev. Proof FS coins as well.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
mintage and 70 population. When all the speculation buying and the held 70's come out of the woodwork
it will end up killing that possibility. Again the best move at this point in my opinion is to dump and run
while the getting is good. While the mintage & pops were low at the beginning I would agree it was good to
hold on to some to see where it went but I see no advantage to waiting to get them graded as at any point
along the way it was clear that holding raw coins would not be as profitable in any event.
Just my 2 cents
Wondercoin
Fair point, but 10% or 20% higher 70 pop is not all that concerning I believe and nothing has changed at all on the "lower mintage" speculation other than the weekly sales reports from the US Mint that will continue to change weekly (increasing) until the coin is eventually sold out.
If the FS 70 pop increases another roughly 250-500 coins from here in the next six months, I agree with you that might affect pricing. It may certainly affect my asking price. But, I think the final mintage figure might be even more important in the end.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
<< <i>"The recent increase in value of the Regular proof is due to the fact that people were expecting a lower mintage and 70 population."
Fair point, but 10% or 20% higher 70 pop is not all that concerning I believe and nothing has changed at all on the "lower mintage" speculation other than the weekly sales reports from the US Mint that will continue to change weekly (increasing) until the coin is eventually sold out.
If the FS 70 pop increases another roughly 250-500 coins from here in the next six months, I agree with you that might affect pricing. It may certainly affect my asking price. But, I think the final mintage figure might be even more important in the end.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
If it stays close to current mintages and 70 population it will be a winner but that is not likely. I do not sell coins but as I collect them and have a 2013 set I would hope to possess winners.
The 70's jumped 144 in the last week. a couple more weeks like that and its over.
The same goes for the total mintage. Unless the mint makes a surprise sell out the hope for a new low mintage will most likely cause over speculation.
Chances of more 70's "coming out of the woodwork" are likely as there is money to be made.
until the desired time to give the appearance of a rarity that really is not.
Here's the take away many on this Board appear not to realize:
..."rarity" and "Modern" are mutually exclusive.
"Here's the take away many on this Board appear not to realize:
..."rarity" and "Modern" are mutually exclusive." >>
I agree. While some Modern coins have lower mintages than other Modern's, virtually all exist in sufficient quantities as to be relatively easy to obtain.
That does not meet any definition of rare that I know. It is the over hype of the lower mintages and especially the 70 slabs that lead some to believe they may be rare.
Easy to understand as I collect what visually appeals to me and is within my budget. I still hope that they may be scarce enough to be of higher value in the future.
<< <i>Watch big money sites like apmex and see if they suddenly have an inventory surge. >>
I was about to say this, or coinvault, or provident, or a combo of all of them, etc. Monster box or 2 quantity sent direct to the graders, min grade required. 140 pop jump doesn't seem far fetched to me at all.
<< <i>Has the price on these (70 regulary proof Buffaloes for 2013) gone up recently? >>
Yes. Just checked EBAY and the going price is $ 2,800 - $ 3,000 with most closer to the high end.
For that matter, the glorification of the MS/PR70 grade is way overblown and apparently super attractive to those who just do not know any better.
In other words, its more or less a BS grade based upon TPG competition levels.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>So how does "back" grading work? ATB 5 oz Ft. Mchenry bullion coin is showing 6 graded MS69DMPL FS. A PL is being offered on ebay for $800. Unless these can be "back" graded somehow (FS cut off was October 1st), this will be one rare and expensive bullion coin to add to a collection. >>
If anybody has one or 1,000 in a us mint sealed shipping box they can send them in for grading tomorrow or XXX? years from now and as long as shipped within the FS window they qualify for FS label...I hope that is what you were asking.
<< <i>So how does "back" grading work? ATB 5 oz Ft. Mchenry bullion coin is showing 6 graded MS69DMPL FS. A PL is being offered on ebay for $800. Unless these can be "back" graded somehow (FS cut off was October 1st), this will be one rare and expensive bullion coin to add to a collection. >>
As in the case of the 1995-w silver eagle that sold for $ 86,000 when there was only (8) 70's at the time.
eleven more 70's came out of the woodwork in the following months and the value was cut in half. When there is money to be made the 70 population
will go up. " if you push something hard enough, it will fall over"
This is a subjective evaluation subject to change and increasing quantities and as such is not a guaranteed indicator of value.
Actually, the Price Guide more than DOUBLED from the $23,000 it had been before the sale of that 95W to the $50,000 level it was at recently.
In fact, if I am not mistaken, if you ask Ian at GC I think you will discover that a meaningful portion of that $86k sale price was likely due to the amazing quality of that particular specimen. Like every grade level, even "70's" can be "Premium quality" vs. "squeekers" IMHO.
Wondercoin
<< <i>
<< <i>So how does "back" grading work? ATB 5 oz Ft. Mchenry bullion coin is showing 6 graded MS69DMPL FS. A PL is being offered on ebay for $800. Unless these can be "back" graded somehow (FS cut off was October 1st), this will be one rare and expensive bullion coin to add to a collection. >>
If anybody has one or 1,000 in a us mint sealed shipping box they can send them in for grading tomorrow or XXX? years from now and as long as shipped within the FS window they qualify for FS label...I hope that is what you were asking. >>
Yes, thanks. Though, unlike the collector version, I've never seen any bullion ATB coins (or boxes) advertised as FS eligible. The 2010's are the only ones that have indefinite eligibility, so all the other years must generally be submitted by dealers (just speculating).
<< <i>"eleven more 70's came out of the woodwork in the following months and the value was cut in half."
Actually, the Price Guide more than DOUBLED from the $23,000 it had been before the sale of that 95W to the $50,000 level it was at recently.
In fact, if I am not mistaken, if you ask Ian at GC I think you will discover that a meaningful portion of that $86k sale price was likely due to the amazing quality of that particular specimen. Like every grade level, even "70's" can be "Premium quality" vs. "squeekers" IMHO.
Wondercoin >>
Exactly the point. The fact that a "Premium 70" can be that much better than a "Squeaker 70" shows the subjectivity in the grading.
It leaves a gaping hole that allows for too many possibilities when money and value are at stake. There are far too many Squeakers as well as
less than squeakers in 70 slabs. If you take a poll on this forum I am sure you will find nearly everyone has seen way more than one coin in a 70 slab
that should not be a 70.
Wondercoin
Inquiring minds want to know what was really behind the 140 jump in First Strike population last week and where are the coins.
I congratulate on all the flippers in hanging in there and managing to make a go of it.
Well, just Love coins, period.
and continues to drop. Recent jumps in raw purchases bring the total mint population close to the previous lows and most likely will go
over as too many stock up in hopes of a low mintage. The end is near for the flipping of the 2013 Buffalos!
my fingers I now pronounce the 2013 PCGS First Strike Gold 1oz. Proof Buffalo " Dead in the Water" RIP
<< <i>I know nothing about these coins, but consider this hypothetical (which is purely a hypothetical as I have no idea if this really happened or not)...
Earlier in the year, a large company has a plan to sell pairs of Rev Proof & Regular Proof "First Strike" Buffs for the Christmas season. They buy a half million dollars worth of "regulars" and send them to PCGS well within the FS time period. They also direct PCGS to hold on to these coins to grade them in October along with (or right after) the half million dollars of Rev proof First Strike Buffs they also plan to purchase later in year (for all we know, perhaps they also want the two coins placed together in the -2- coin multi-holders). Now, right in time for the Christmas season, this company has a grand total of a million dollars worth of First Strike pairs of these neat Buffalos to sell.
Question to the OP ... in this (purely) hypothetical, did this company "manipulate the First Strike pops to its advantage"?
Wondercoin >>
Wonder, can you actually ask PCGS to hold coins for this long before grading?
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
anyone can hold them and submit at anytime for a First Strike label. This is a problem that will eventually destroy
the credibility and value of first strike. To retain any limited and final population it should be cut off even for sealed
boxes after a short period to allow for all late shipments to be submitted. This would at least give a little validity to the persona
of the limited availability of first strike.
Wondercoin