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British Coins Forecast 2014-15 an overall view of now and the future
SwK
Posts: 378
British Coins Forecast 2014-15 an overall view of now and the future
www.petitioncrown.com
British Coins 2014-15 an overall view of now and the future
What is creating the interest in the British Coin market? Not just the upward trend of prices but the increasing number of collectors. What has really happened over the last decade leading to 2014/15? We need to understand a few facts and then mix all the facts up to give an individual potted view of the future.
Numismatic Coins are ART. They have always been used to show the RULER how he would like to be seen and the reverse side of the coin has CONTENT, to tell a story of achievement or strength or whatever the ruler wants show on the reverse. This applies to English, Scottish & Irish coins.
Bargains, I have seldom seen any bargains. If you are offered a coin that is substantially below what is considered market price, check it carefully as there is likely to be something wrong with the coin. Numismatic rarities have one main disadvantage in that they are not as liquid as say bullion coins. The internet has changed this to some extent as the audience is much larger than before. (Autumn 2013 saw a collection of 18 top quality British coins sold via an Internet Auction for $1.6m before charging commission, all this organized within 90 days). The question that is never fully answered is what makes a fair price? Willing buyer, willing seller, the problem is that collectors of British coins fall in love with every piece and are loathe to part.
Quality pieces have always been sought after and preserved carefully through many generations of collectors, since auction catalogues are known from the early 1700’s and collections were assembled well before. The relationship of quality to non-quality is not more than 1:100, or possibly even less. The importance of grading is paramount, another service that today’s “dealer” can offer, and the ability to see and check a coin not just from a photograph but to hold the coin and check the quality of the patina and eye appeal. Plastic captivity is only one possible solution but cannot replace the expertise of a long term dealer with knowledge who wishes to see the whole coin, edges and metal.
Coins have the added interest, coins are money and people ‘love money’, they are portable and wonderful collections can be built from Ancient Greek to Modern British Coins. Buy books, read and learn as much as possible about the subject so purchase good reference books; this has always been a strong criteria for success. Knowledge of price/grade is essential for the collector with “Coins of England”, the British Bible on pricing, carefully reflecting prices paid at auction and the market in general.
What is fuelling the market making prices continue to rise? This is not so complicated to answer; we have a period where we are printing paper (money). The more we print the less it is worth in purchasing power. 2008/9 was an example of a major blip in the financial markets, blip you say? Yes, as one day there needs to be a correction. Then your collectables will be worth less – sure, but they will have some intrinsic value and anyhow you have had fun collecting.
Now we move to other factors:
The Internet has made a world of no borders, the adoption of on-line bidding at auction is increasing, digital photography is amazing and bidding techniques have changed. Beware of dealers and others who will use the internet to increase prices. Collectors should remind themselves of the old adage, ‘all that glitters is not gold’.
People are living longer and the retirement age of 65+/- is no longer relevant as it is creating new problems of lack of pension income to support their financial needs, demanding that individuals look for new pastimes to create income.
Dealers are offering new services including advice, viewing sales, increasing stock levels or focusing more carefully where they should be exhibiting. We still need to watch the difference between dealers on the other side of the pond in the US and UK dealers in general. The US dealer invests more of his wealth in building stocks than the British dealer who has different priorities.
Autumn 2013
The market was pre-dominantly Auction driven, what did we learn in the British Market.
Top quality material that had not been on the market for 20+ years made +15% above top estimate, which were high to start with.
Medium to better quality saw a rise upwards to the average area of low book estimate
Poorer quality stayed low with fewer bidders
What was clearly evident that the top quality items had more bidders at the higher end over the top estimate?
We can discuss different areas of the British market that have opportunities for growth; one of these is early British Copper from Charles II 1662 to the end of George I 1727. Top quality is difficult to find. Anglo Saxon pennies are another, but they are continually being found. The wonderful RAVEN Penny in the autumn auctions did not find a buyer.
Future
While interest rates remain low and governments print paper, the price of collectables such as coins will rise. House prices are a bubble as governments use the ‘mortgage cover tool’ to meet their own needs knowing that the individual won’t repay their loan, however, the Government is not dealing with repayments but the “good feeling” factor.
The effect of a limited number of dealers from say the USA building and holding British stocks of coins to service the growing number of American collectors showing interest in British coins will see prices rise to levels not seen in the UK. (Consider the sale of the RAWLINS POUND XX coin in September 152’000 UK Pounds ($243’000) such a rarity for a US Coin would be say $2’000’000.
Final conclusion is “you have the best and the rest”. www.petitioncrown.com
British Coins 2014-15 an overall view of now and the future
www.petitioncrown.com
British Coins 2014-15 an overall view of now and the future
What is creating the interest in the British Coin market? Not just the upward trend of prices but the increasing number of collectors. What has really happened over the last decade leading to 2014/15? We need to understand a few facts and then mix all the facts up to give an individual potted view of the future.
Numismatic Coins are ART. They have always been used to show the RULER how he would like to be seen and the reverse side of the coin has CONTENT, to tell a story of achievement or strength or whatever the ruler wants show on the reverse. This applies to English, Scottish & Irish coins.
Bargains, I have seldom seen any bargains. If you are offered a coin that is substantially below what is considered market price, check it carefully as there is likely to be something wrong with the coin. Numismatic rarities have one main disadvantage in that they are not as liquid as say bullion coins. The internet has changed this to some extent as the audience is much larger than before. (Autumn 2013 saw a collection of 18 top quality British coins sold via an Internet Auction for $1.6m before charging commission, all this organized within 90 days). The question that is never fully answered is what makes a fair price? Willing buyer, willing seller, the problem is that collectors of British coins fall in love with every piece and are loathe to part.
Quality pieces have always been sought after and preserved carefully through many generations of collectors, since auction catalogues are known from the early 1700’s and collections were assembled well before. The relationship of quality to non-quality is not more than 1:100, or possibly even less. The importance of grading is paramount, another service that today’s “dealer” can offer, and the ability to see and check a coin not just from a photograph but to hold the coin and check the quality of the patina and eye appeal. Plastic captivity is only one possible solution but cannot replace the expertise of a long term dealer with knowledge who wishes to see the whole coin, edges and metal.
Coins have the added interest, coins are money and people ‘love money’, they are portable and wonderful collections can be built from Ancient Greek to Modern British Coins. Buy books, read and learn as much as possible about the subject so purchase good reference books; this has always been a strong criteria for success. Knowledge of price/grade is essential for the collector with “Coins of England”, the British Bible on pricing, carefully reflecting prices paid at auction and the market in general.
What is fuelling the market making prices continue to rise? This is not so complicated to answer; we have a period where we are printing paper (money). The more we print the less it is worth in purchasing power. 2008/9 was an example of a major blip in the financial markets, blip you say? Yes, as one day there needs to be a correction. Then your collectables will be worth less – sure, but they will have some intrinsic value and anyhow you have had fun collecting.
Now we move to other factors:
The Internet has made a world of no borders, the adoption of on-line bidding at auction is increasing, digital photography is amazing and bidding techniques have changed. Beware of dealers and others who will use the internet to increase prices. Collectors should remind themselves of the old adage, ‘all that glitters is not gold’.
People are living longer and the retirement age of 65+/- is no longer relevant as it is creating new problems of lack of pension income to support their financial needs, demanding that individuals look for new pastimes to create income.
Dealers are offering new services including advice, viewing sales, increasing stock levels or focusing more carefully where they should be exhibiting. We still need to watch the difference between dealers on the other side of the pond in the US and UK dealers in general. The US dealer invests more of his wealth in building stocks than the British dealer who has different priorities.
Autumn 2013
The market was pre-dominantly Auction driven, what did we learn in the British Market.
Top quality material that had not been on the market for 20+ years made +15% above top estimate, which were high to start with.
Medium to better quality saw a rise upwards to the average area of low book estimate
Poorer quality stayed low with fewer bidders
What was clearly evident that the top quality items had more bidders at the higher end over the top estimate?
We can discuss different areas of the British market that have opportunities for growth; one of these is early British Copper from Charles II 1662 to the end of George I 1727. Top quality is difficult to find. Anglo Saxon pennies are another, but they are continually being found. The wonderful RAVEN Penny in the autumn auctions did not find a buyer.
Future
While interest rates remain low and governments print paper, the price of collectables such as coins will rise. House prices are a bubble as governments use the ‘mortgage cover tool’ to meet their own needs knowing that the individual won’t repay their loan, however, the Government is not dealing with repayments but the “good feeling” factor.
The effect of a limited number of dealers from say the USA building and holding British stocks of coins to service the growing number of American collectors showing interest in British coins will see prices rise to levels not seen in the UK. (Consider the sale of the RAWLINS POUND XX coin in September 152’000 UK Pounds ($243’000) such a rarity for a US Coin would be say $2’000’000.
Final conclusion is “you have the best and the rest”. www.petitioncrown.com
British Coins 2014-15 an overall view of now and the future
A collection uploaded on www.petitioncrown.com is a fifty- year love affair with beautiful British coins, medals and Roman brass
0
Comments
Lots of emails direct to me, told plenty of people read the article but feedback is important
r
J
The big question is whether global societies which are are clearly under pressure to sustain growth and feed their own will allow for collecting in the broader sense. From my experience in the US as a person in his 40s, I see a reduced level of interest from people my age to become familiar with history, collecting etc. Perhaps focusing on other issues related to "the now" or simply programmed to do other things. That is my primary concern on a forward looking basis.
Taler Custom Set
Ancient Custom Set
I am not at all sure that folks of retirement age are stashing away new collections of bits as IMHO it seems that there is genuine concern about where the economies of USA and the West are headed.
I can not prove it but there seems to be far less interest in collecting by date than just acquiring expensive bits with not a lot of cohesion.
Auction prices on the better bits have gone very high but not sure just how real they are - who are the buyers? I can't figure that out. I buy here and there now, but MUCH less than at one time when it comes to auctions - certainly few bargains to be had many of the prices we see. Mostly I just watch from the sidelines and marvel at it, only occasionally stepping out into the fray and grabbing the occasional bit a la the trapdoor spider...
I wonder, for example who is holding prices up on Jub. and old head gold 2 and 5 sovs. in proof and mint/specimen? I don't have a one and will not at the prices we see. These are just far too buck-common. Same (although out of my area) for the Broads and gold of Charles I and Cromwell, etc. as these seem available at every bend but are somehow bringing prices? Maybe flippers at work?
Well, just Love coins, period.
Thanks for your view, I understand all what you have written and concur.
The importance of the Forum is the exchange of ideas and to broaden our thinking and not become polarized.
Thanks interested to hear more of your view
R
PC
British coins overall are being sought after, I have many collecting colleagues who each chooses another avenue of period and type collection. Yes it is true we are all looking for finer quality material, but there never has been abundance. This autumn 2013 saw an amazing amount in Auction and nearly all was swallowed up by collectors as dealers sat there in general on their hands.
I agree partly with your comment but I remember 2007/08 losing -60% of estimated capital for retirement vanished and considered that it was luck more than good judgment that I did “not have all my eggs in one basket” Although I do not believe anything in the global world of finance has not been solved in the US it is the only reserve currency and one may ask the question does it really matter if the US has a deficit of 100 Trillian
I am one of those buyers and I am a collector, recently I was determined to find my competitor, I found him he was another collector. Another coin which I wanted went to a UK collector; I thought it was a US collector.
Cromwell is great, I have a few of his items which are memorabilia a hat, bible, death mask +++
Keep writing interested to answer any questions directly at info@petitioncrown.com
r
PC
2. Establishing a connection- whether it be history or art
edited to add
3. Disposable income
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Disposable income
Depressing subject, this is a problem as salaries are not increasing with inflation, standing costs are rising as are local taxes, education, gas, electricity, food prices, insurance +++ and the remaining if any disposable income dropping every year since 2008.
Inflation is the "killer"
Coin collecting is an ancient hobby that can be used as an income generator as well as 'wealth protection' and to be used when required either for education, retirement and of-course a wonderful hobby.
Jeff
www.petitioncrown.com