So what will happen when....

yankeeno7

there is a large market dry up of 1980 and prior unopened? What will happen to businesses like BBCE? I think many of us who have been in the hobby for many years believe there are still stashes of unopened 70s and early 80s. It only gets trickled out now. But right now there is a buying frenzy that has made much of this unopened product beyond ridiculous prices. And yet, people are still buying. It wont be long and the AVAILABLE stuff will dry up or so I guess.

BBCE is opening a store. All I can think of is that it will mostly be vintage singles, modern unopened, and authenticated autos with a smattering of vintage packs. Is the level of difficulty finding the older unopened forcing businesses like BBCE to go this route? Either assimilate to survive or die. Im only using BBCE as an example because they are the easiest to use in the situation.

Soon the rips may be past years modern. I think the limited stuff could be a new frenzy, especially the stuff with great autos and/or low numbered inserts. Unless of course people will have fun ripping 1991 Studio and 1991 Leaf but I just dont see it on that level.

Anyway...just some thoughts I had. Carry on.

Stingray

People can't hold on to stuff for ever. I am curious on how often BBCE does purchase, say someone's collection?? How often do they refresh their inventory??

byronscott4ever

<< <i>People can't hold on to stuff for ever. I am curious on how often BBCE does purchase, say someone's collection?? How often do they refresh their inventory?? >>



It seems in would be in everyone's financial best interests to hold back stuff and wait for the prices to go up.

Dodgerfanjohn

<< <i>

<< <i>People can't hold on to stuff for ever. I am curious on how often BBCE does purchase, say someone's collection?? How often do they refresh their inventory?? >>



It seems in would be in everyone's financial best interests to hold back stuff and wait for the prices to go up. >>



Well that's what happens, right? As prices go up, at certain points people sell.

itzagoner

there will always be stuff to sell. and they will assimilate. they must in order to maintain the level of business at which they have operated for years. if the world runs out of unopened product, it doesn't mean the world ran out of cards.

they will analyze what works and then take action, which is exactly how they got to this crazy level with unopened in the first place.

if their best bet is to sell cheese, then i hope everyone here is ready to cheddar.

Raulsmaster

Right, even though late 70's early 80's boxes are selling for lose your ass money...I know I won't have a problem finding one if I need it, I'll just have to overpay

jmaciu

I agree in that BBCE will adapt to whatever is out there. Steve and company have been very successful and fair. I am quite sure that BBCE will continue mold to whatever the market has available and will provide a good service to the hobby while doing it.

stown

<< <i>BBCE is opening a store. All I can think of is that it will mostly be vintage singles, modern unopened, and authenticated autos with a smattering of vintage packs. Is the level of difficulty finding the older unopened forcing businesses like BBCE to go this route? Either assimilate to survive or die. Im only using BBCE as an example because they are the easiest to use in the situation. >>



Or, perhaps there's more supply of unopened product than people realize.

And before anyone jumps on me and insists it's literally drying up; no one knows the production numbers, specifically or approximately, so it's all speculation on either side. There's definitely less unopened product today than originally coming out of the factory but, by how much is anyone's guess.

Juggs

I think the success of BBCE speaks more to Steve's business savvy than it does simply having vintage unopened. He'll probably adapt with any change in available product, or market demand.

I'm betting on their retail store being a huge success, because, well, Steve.

ReggieCleveland

<< <i>

<< <i>BBCE is opening a store. All I can think of is that it will mostly be vintage singles, modern unopened, and authenticated autos with a smattering of vintage packs. Is the level of difficulty finding the older unopened forcing businesses like BBCE to go this route? Either assimilate to survive or die. Im only using BBCE as an example because they are the easiest to use in the situation. >>



Or, perhaps there's more supply of unopened product than people realize.

And before anyone jumps on me and insists it's literally drying up; no one knows the production numbers, specifically or approximately, so it's all speculation on either side. There's definitely less unopened product today than originally coming out of the factory but, by how much is anyone's guess. >>



I think we can ballpark production for the late-70s and 1980s. We know what the baseball card industry was before 81 and we have sales numbers for other pockets, like the mid-80s. We also know other production facts here and there. I think someone with more time and desire than myself could do some math and get rough estimates. Obviously, production would be higher than what they sold each year but it would still provide some insight, at worst a baseline.

stown

<< <i>I think we can ballpark production for the late-70s and 1980s. We know what the baseball card industry was before 81 and we have sales numbers for other pockets, like the mid-80s. We also know other production facts here and there. I think someone with more time and desire than myself could do some math and get rough estimates. Obviously, production would be higher than what they sold each year but it would still provide some insight, at worst a baseline. >>



I've been under the impression we only have yearly gross sales numbers. When you say production facts, do you mean a percentage of wax/cello/vending per year or something similar? The estimates I've seen or heard over the years have huge spreads and I always take them with a grain of salt, mostly because I'm assuming they're just wild tushy guesses.

Fellow board member Bob Lemke did a post on '51-'61 sales not too long ago (link). To be honest, I'm quite surprised there hasn't been a greater effort to find ballpark production estimates, especially considering the recent hype and price increases.

galaxy27

<< <i>there is a large market dry up of 1980 and prior unopened? >>



This is an easy one. First, we all assemble at Tim's house to drown our sorrows. During the course of the evening, the emcee vanishes. No one knows what's up, but the party continues until...

...we reconvene at Mike's house the very next day. Once again the adult beverages are flowing, and once again the host mysteriously disappears. All good though, because...

...we all head back home, finding out that those two cats are perfectly fine. Amazingly, the quasi-therapy sessions at Tim's casa and Mike's casa prove to be very beneficial, as everyone is not only left feeling much better about the current state of the unopened market, but dare I say downright satiated.


That's what will happen.

Tabe

<< <i>People can't hold on to stuff for ever. I am curious on how often BBCE does purchase, say someone's collection?? How often do they refresh their inventory?? >>


They buy stuff multiple times pretty much every week. And that's just the stuff they tell us about on Facebook.

PSASAP

I still think unopened is a sucker's game. Why pay huge premiums for still sealed cards, in which the odds of pulling high grade cards is pretty long, when you can buy graded cards for less?

Dodgerfanjohn

<< <i>I still think unopened is a sucker's game. Why pay huge premiums for still sealed cards, in which the odds of pulling high grade cards is pretty long, when you can buy graded cards for less? >>



As explained many many times, theres other factors involved.

I agree that someone buying a box of vintage to pull tens is engaged in a money losing proposition. But some people want to buy it to collect it unopened, some buy older boxes because there are several cards that are rare or non existent in 9 or 10 and thats the only possible way to get it, some buy to open the packs they did as a kid. Some buy as an investment which largely I think is not going to happen, but theres a lot of people who disagree with me.

jbs726

I think you might be right about mid 90's unopened product being the next frontier so to speak. It has already happened with basketball. The overseas market caused an explosion in the market for low numbered, or hard to find inserts and parallels of 90's basketball. Look at the precious metal gems....try finding an unopened box of 1997-98 Fleer Metal Basketball.

I remember in 2002-03 range I bought an unopened box of 1997-98 Flair Showcase basketball on ebay for 20.00. At the time i was just looking for a fun/cheap rip. Now you can't touch that box for less than 150.00, and most sell for 200.00+.

Now, I know that baseball and football don't have a superstar like Jordan fueling the craze to rip everything to find these elusive inserts and parallels, but the stuff is drying up. I've been trying to find a hobby box of 1997 Metal Hobby Box for over a year. I've also found myself buying mid 90's boxes to get cards for my player master sets.

The old wax is great, the demand is there to keep the prices up... But if I want a box of 1980 Topps Baseball it's there. I can't say that for many issues during the 90's.