I am so darn mad that unopened prices are rising
doog71
Posts: 405 ✭✭
I am so upset this is happening, and perhaps that I didn't see it coming, that I have decided to leave snide and negative comments about said unopened material in any threads celebrating it.
Prices are not adhering to my understanding of this part of the hobby so you're going to hear about it from me, darn it.
And you people buying it in hopes it will go up in value in the future? Please stop ruining the hobby. There is much more joy in collecting 1991 Leaf baseball.
That is all. I'm going to the BBCE site now to stare at the 1980-1985 pages and fume.
Prices are not adhering to my understanding of this part of the hobby so you're going to hear about it from me, darn it.
And you people buying it in hopes it will go up in value in the future? Please stop ruining the hobby. There is much more joy in collecting 1991 Leaf baseball.
That is all. I'm going to the BBCE site now to stare at the 1980-1985 pages and fume.
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Comments
I scratch my head when looking at insanely high priced cards that typically sell for much, much less.
WERE GONNA MAKE IT THROUGH THIS!
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
<< <i>I don't think people are upset that prices are rising 'because spite'. I think some people are a little upset at the possible, maybe even unknowingly, market manipulation by BBCE. BBCE prices going up is their decision and not a valid indicator of supply. The demand is possibly a bubble falsely created by supposed "dwindling supply" and I think some are upset about that and are afraid that the bubble can and will burst when people realize that just because fewer people are selling their '80s cases to BBCE, doesn't mean supply is dwindling and prices should be skyrocketing. >>
Let me give you my personal decision-point which I hope to fully explain if I actually write my book on my experience re-entering card collecting
I saw two events over the past 5 years. First, Hatch went after a perfect 10.0 1978 set...it was amazing and he was basically killing me on every 1978 unopened auction and much of the product never even hit BBCE. He alone really impacted how easy it was to acquire 1978 unopened. I dont seen much of anything out there, and we know he or others will snatch it up at significantly higher prices than previous sales.
At that time 1979 could be had easily and was not a popular set anyway...I bought some unopened when I stumbled on it, but there was always stuff available on BBCE or ebay. Then bubblegumgirl went after a perfect 1979 set and began buying up all the racks and cases etc. Two years later, it is about as hard to find 1979 as it is 1978. This damage was done principly by 2 people trying to build two incredible sets. Simple logic told me that the market/supply is MUCH thinner than we may have assumed. I missed out on a lot but did manage to stash a bit from 1975-1979. We dont even talk about 1970-75. BBCE has nothing to do with this fact. I first mentioned the supply issue several years ago when I started letting others know that BBCE used to always have 7-8 pages of 1970s product with boxes and cases and that it was dwindling to 5 then 3 pages with many packs and stickers. That is where we are today.
Some argue that members are shilling the market, I also get the sense of some sour grapes.
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't think people are upset that prices are rising 'because spite'. I think some people are a little upset at the possible, maybe even unknowingly, market manipulation by BBCE. BBCE prices going up is their decision and not a valid indicator of supply. The demand is possibly a bubble falsely created by supposed "dwindling supply" and I think some are upset about that and are afraid that the bubble can and will burst when people realize that just because fewer people are selling their '80s cases to BBCE, doesn't mean supply is dwindling and prices should be skyrocketing. >>
Let me give you my personal decision-point which I hope to fully explain if I actually write my book on my experience re-entering card collecting
I saw two events over the past 5 years. First, Hatch went after a perfect 10.0 1978 set...it was amazing and he was basically killing me on every 1978 unopened auction and much of the product never even hit BBCE. He alone really impacted how easy it was to acquire 1978 unopened. I dont seen much of anything out there, and we know he or others will snatch it up at significantly higher prices than previous sales.
At that time 1979 could be had easily and was not a popular set anyway...I bought some unopened when I stumbled on it, but there was always stuff available on BBCE or ebay. Then bubblegumgirl went after a perfect 1979 set and began buying up all the racks and cases etc. Two years later, it is about as hard to find 1979 as it is 1978. This damage was done principly by 2 people trying to build two incredible sets. Simple logic told me that the market/supply is MUCH thinner than we may have assumed. I missed out on a lot but did manage to stash a bit from 1975-1979. We dont even talk about 1970-75. BBCE has nothing to do with this fact. I first mentioned the supply issue several years ago when I started letting others know that BBCE used to always have 7-8 pages of 1970s product with boxes and cases and that it was dwindling to 5 then 3 pages with many packs and stickers. That is where we are today.
Some argue that members are shilling the market, I also get the sense of some sour grapes. >>
Good post.
The only thing is, Topps stuff from the '81 to '89 isn't hard to find just because BBCE has upped their prices. It just means fewer people are using the "sell cheap to a dealer so the dealer can make a nice profit" route and either holding or selling online themselves to get these "BBCE prices"... which they most likely wouldn't be getting if they and others like them were still selling their cases to BBCE. I don't care, personally. I think it's great that "junk" from the '80s is finding new life, but I also am a little hesitant to think the stuff will hold this value and/or increase knowing full well that BBCE isn't the end-all-be-all for '80s unopened supply/pricing. They are a business and many fail to take that into account.
Shane
<< <i>Market prices are being set by collectors not by BBCE. BBCE is charging less than market price and people are making money off of his lower prices. Steve is NOT artificially pricing his stuff and he is actually paying much more for product than he did last year at this time. I think the group rips are affecting the prices more so than one collector "hoarding" boxes. Mark (CincyREDlegs) can give you a good idea of how much was ripped just this year within our group. I don't recall how long Mark has done these rips but we are running through BBCE's inventory faster than Steve can get it. Four years ago BBCE had a ton of inventory and prices remained very consistant up until the record breaking rips over the past couple of years.
Shane >>
If people can get at or above BBCE prices on their own, why sell to BBCE at seller buy prices and lose so much money? In this scenario, wouldn't this create the supposed "lack of supply" that BBCE is experiencing, which inflates the prices that they themselves are realizing, thus creating a possible bubble?
Just talking here. It's an interesting subject.
<< <i>we are running through BBCE's inventory faster than Steve can get it. >>
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>If people can get at or above BBCE prices on their own, why sell to BBCE at seller buy prices and lose so much money? In this scenario, wouldn't this create the supposed "lack of supply" that BBCE is experiencing, which inflates the prices that they themselves are realizing, thus creating a possible bubble?
Just talking here. It's an interesting subject. >>
Because we want packs Steve looked at and has determined is really unopened.
<< <i>
<< <i>Market prices are being set by collectors not by BBCE. BBCE is charging less than market price and people are making money off of his lower prices. Steve is NOT artificially pricing his stuff and he is actually paying much more for product than he did last year at this time. I think the group rips are affecting the prices more so than one collector "hoarding" boxes. Mark (CincyREDlegs) can give you a good idea of how much was ripped just this year within our group. I don't recall how long Mark has done these rips but we are running through BBCE's inventory faster than Steve can get it. Four years ago BBCE had a ton of inventory and prices remained very consistant up until the record breaking rips over the past couple of years.
Shane >>
If people can get at or above BBCE prices on their own, why sell to BBCE at seller buy prices and lose so much money? In this scenario, wouldn't this create the supposed "lack of supply" that BBCE is experiencing, which inflates the prices that they themselves are realizing, thus creating a possible bubble?
Just talking here. It's an interesting subject. >>
I'm all for conversation!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Market prices are being set by collectors not by BBCE. BBCE is charging less than market price and people are making money off of his lower prices. Steve is NOT artificially pricing his stuff and he is actually paying much more for product than he did last year at this time. I think the group rips are affecting the prices more so than one collector "hoarding" boxes. Mark (CincyREDlegs) can give you a good idea of how much was ripped just this year within our group. I don't recall how long Mark has done these rips but we are running through BBCE's inventory faster than Steve can get it. Four years ago BBCE had a ton of inventory and prices remained very consistant up until the record breaking rips over the past couple of years.
Shane >>
If people can get at or above BBCE prices on their own, why sell to BBCE at seller buy prices and lose so much money? In this scenario, wouldn't this create the supposed "lack of supply" that BBCE is experiencing, which inflates the prices that they themselves are realizing, thus creating a possible bubble?
Just talking here. It's an interesting subject. >>
I'm all for conversation!
Good points. I just hope that when these prices reach 1989 Topps baseball, I'm fully loaded! lol
There have been 6,566 1968 Topps Nolan Ryans graded by PSA and only 3,502 1989 Topps Randy Johnsons... hmmm. Just sayin'.
<< <i>How do these prices compare to high end modern? Guys drop a grand at card shops all the time and literally walk out with nothing. The same guys do it week after week at the card shops near me. Are any of those guys ripping vintage? If so, they really don't care about these prices. They just rip away. >>
Excellent point! This captures my argument about relative versus absolute value perfectly (much better than comparing 1981 Fleer to Aerosmith tickets). The amount of increase in a 1981 cello-box from an absolute standpoint (let's say 150.00 to 200.00) is different from a "relative" observation.
Here is the economic argument of relative worth and why gold is thought to be a relative store of wealth. If you look at the price of gold, one ounce has been remarketably equal to one suit of fine clothes from Roman times until today. Therefore, if you buy an ounce of gold today you know that 30 years from now you will be able to spend it on goods of equal relative worth. This is why it is considered an inflation hedge.
To be frank, unopened waxboxes are another store of wealth but there is no systematic "relative worth" tie. We can think of a 1978 topps waxbox at 1000.00 today as fairly priced but what is the relative worth 5 or 10 years from now? Future "relative" worth is not predictable which is why they are unstable as stores of wealth. What can 1000.00 buy today and is that basket of goods considered equal to a 1978 waxbox 10 years from now? That determines "relative" price movements!
Given this, I have two personal observations explaining why I have been a bullish voice: 1. I believe that these cards (I dont know about 80s just talking about what happened to the 70s for now) have been undervalued "relatively" because they have been too closely associated with other years which we consider junk-wax. 2. I believe these cards have been undervalued absolutely because of all the ripping associated with the PSA board and registry sets over the past 5-10 years. The price increase in unopened may lag behind the true effects of ripping on the supply.
Why I buy 80s is that I am making an educated guess that the margin for these years is somewhere between the 1970s and the post 86 years. I also have a sense of which years are a bit more difficult than others.
Hope that makes sense and is not too academic.
Scooby Doo Ghost Town Here We Come!
<< <i>How do these prices compare to high end modern? Guys drop a grand at card shops all the time and literally walk out with nothing. The same guys do it week after week at the card shops near me. Are any of those guys ripping vintage? If so, they really don't care about these prices. They just rip away. >>
Its gambling, and much of the time gambling with money they don't really have to gamble with.
Eh.
<< <i>
<< <i>How do these prices compare to high end modern? Guys drop a grand at card shops all the time and literally walk out with nothing. The same guys do it week after week at the card shops near me. Are any of those guys ripping vintage? If so, they really don't care about these prices. They just rip away. >>
Its gambling, and much of the time gambling with money they don't really have to gamble with.
Eh. >>
Mr. Sunshine chimes in as if on cue, lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Baseball Cards should be collected for fun. With a national debt approaching 17 trillion dollars and growing, in 20 years once the world has figured out our money is literally worthless, people will be eating the cardboard as their only source of fiber in their diets. Its better to invest in bullets, canned food and bottled water for the long term. Collect for fun! Have a nice evening everyone!
Scooby Doo Ghost Town Here We Come! >>
Haha! Yes, guns and ammo, I dont know how much I have but I can just ask NSA, I am sure they are keeping tabs. If the SHTF happens, no one is touching my minis without a fight
-My old BBCE invoices are saved until 2010.
I bought a 93/94 Topps finest basketball box, lol for $39 in August 2010. That was quite a bargain. But, an 82 topps football cello pack for $6? It's now $10. That's a 66.7% increase in 3 years. For a rather bland, marginal set. Have those packs really gotten 22% scarcer each year for the past 3 years?
Some boxes I expect to naturally creep up over time. Say, maybe 89/90 fleer basketball. It can go up for $35-40 to $45 or $50. But 1980 topps football or 83 topps football, those have I think doubled. I remember thinking 80 topps seemed like a bargain at $100.
1984 topps baseball vending seems reasonable at $24. Not much downside. 1989 upper deck and 1990 leaf haven't moved up much. It depends on what you look at.
Parts of the hobby get into a bubble. I remember when t206 commons were hot, kind of a bubble. I think when people start thinking something is going to go up forever, with no downside, that's classic bubble thinking. They think it's a "sure thing", but sure things don't exist in economics really. The same thing with housing in 06, the nasdaq in 99/2000, etc.
<< <i>I think it's honestly a bubble. The definition of a bubble being..."price rises (or substantial price rises) with little or no economic justification under neath it".
-My old BBCE invoices are saved until 2010.
I bought a 93/94 Topps finest basketball box, lol for $39 in August 2010. That was quite a bargain. But, an 82 topps football cello pack for $6? It's now $10. That's a 66.7% increase in 3 years. For a rather bland, marginal set. Have those packs really gotten 22% scarcer each year for the past 3 years?
Some boxes I expect to naturally creep up over time. Say, maybe 89/90 fleer basketball. It can go up for $35-40 to $45 or $50. But 1980 topps football or 83 topps football, those have I think doubled. I remember thinking 80 topps seemed like a bargain at $100.
1984 topps baseball vending seems reasonable at $24. Not much downside. 1989 upper deck and 1990 leaf haven't moved up much. It depends on what you look at.
Parts of the hobby get into a bubble. I remember when t206 commons were hot, kind of a bubble. I think when people start thinking something is going to go up forever, with no downside, that's classic bubble thinking. They think it's a "sure thing", but sure things don't exist in economics really. The same thing with housing in 06, the nasdaq in 99/2000, etc. >>
Eve 84 Topps vending seems to be creeping into the high $20 range. Will prices continue to rise or will we finally see a breaking point?.
Robb
<< <i>I think it's honestly a bubble. The definition of a bubble being..."price rises (or substantial price rises) with little or no economic justification under neath it".
-My old BBCE invoices are saved until 2010.
I bought a 93/94 Topps finest basketball box, lol for $39 in August 2010. That was quite a bargain. But, an 82 topps football cello pack for $6? It's now $10. That's a 66.7% increase in 3 years. For a rather bland, marginal set. Have those packs really gotten 22% scarcer each year for the past 3 years?
Some boxes I expect to naturally creep up over time. Say, maybe 89/90 fleer basketball. It can go up for $35-40 to $45 or $50. But 1980 topps football or 83 topps football, those have I think doubled. I remember thinking 80 topps seemed like a bargain at $100.
1984 topps baseball vending seems reasonable at $24. Not much downside. 1989 upper deck and 1990 leaf haven't moved up much. It depends on what you look at.
Parts of the hobby get into a bubble. I remember when t206 commons were hot, kind of a bubble. I think when people start thinking something is going to go up forever, with no downside, that's classic bubble thinking. They think it's a "sure thing", but sure things don't exist in economics really. The same thing with housing in 06, the nasdaq in 99/2000, etc. >>
I think your comparison is interesting but I think tying it solely to scarcity might be the wrong correlation. I view unopened cards as an asset and when you view other assets they have had similar levels of appreciation from the recent recession. The Dow for example has gone from 11,000 to 15,000 in the last 2 years and you don't have to look to far to see individual stocks up well over 66% with the entire average up 40%. So I think most of the rise is due to macroeconomic factors and a small part of course due to lowering supply.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
But many folks look at price increases from the 70s and believe that's what's going to happen to the 80s eventually. For the life of me, I can't fathom the reasoning people use to come to that conclusion. Believe me, I've heard every reason under the sun that people use to convince themselves that's the case and it's just not. Production went up EVERY SINGLE YEAR in the 1980s, no exceptions. In some years it went up as much as 100% from just the previous year. I'm not sure some people fully understand exactly what that means. Just because 1980 Topps has reached $XXX in 2013 does NOT mean 1985 Topps is going to see the same movement in 5 years.
I'm not being a hater or trying to rain on anyone's parade, these are basic facts that many here (and many more, no doubt, that we don't even see post but read these threads) are not fully grasping. I'm simply trying to put things in perspective so that we don't see many people get burned and leave the hobby on the same product -- ironically -- that burned so many people 20-25 years ago and caused them to leave the hobby then.
Have fun with it, learn about it, enjoy it. You guys hear about that guy that got rich and retired early off flipping unopened? Yeah, me neither.
It's already happened for early 80s product, which have doubled and then some in many cases already. I would not categrorize (with the exception of 1980) 80s product as scarce by any means, but no question we've seen a sharp rise in value already from 1980-1983, at least.
No one knows what's going to happen going forward. I've been collecting unopened for 20 years now, and I'd be very surprised if prices retreat in the future, put it that way. But that can happen with any collectible--fine art, coins, antiques--cards are no different. Will a PSA 9 75 mini Brett RC remain a 1K+ card a year or two from now? Who knows, but it'll be fun to watch, in any case. I think as collectors we somwtimes take ourselves a bit too seriously with all the analysis.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I know 1981 Topps boxes on BBCE were at least $100 more than a year ago. I don't think they have any now but they seem to be selling in the $160 range on ebay (some higher, some lower). I believe 1982 Topps boxes were ~$150 on BBCE (perhaps higher?) more than a year ago. I haven't seen one go for more than $200 on ebay, but perhaps I missed an outlier. I don't remember what 1983 Topps wax boxes were on BBCE a year ago but I know that they had 1983 OPC wax boxes for $70 and that they were significantly lower than the Topps counterpart. I see 1983 Topps wax boxes selling in the $130-150 range on ebay.
Like I said, I don't remember with great clarity what the early-80s boxes were going for on BBCE a year ago and I'm sure someone else has hard data so hopefully they'll chime in. I certainly don't disagree with you that prices have increased. But if you're suggesting there isn't a sliding scale then I would disagree with you on that. I also don't believe that the rate of increase we've seen in the past year is indicative of future increases. Nothing sustains a 40-50% increase year after year.
<< <i>Is there something from 1981-1983 that has more than doubled in the last year? I'm not leading, I honestly don't know.
I know 1981 Topps boxes on BBCE were at least $100 more than a year ago. I don't think they have any now but they seem to be selling in the $160 range on ebay (some higher, some lower). I believe 1982 Topps boxes were ~$150 on BBCE (perhaps higher?) more than a year ago. I haven't seen one go for more than $200 on ebay, but perhaps I missed an outlier. I don't remember what 1983 Topps wax boxes were on BBCE a year ago but I know that they had 1983 OPC wax boxes for $70 and that they were significantly lower than the Topps counterpart. I see 1983 Topps wax boxes selling in the $130-150 range on ebay.
Like I said, I don't remember with great clarity what the early-80s boxes were going for on BBCE a year ago and I'm sure someone else has hard data so hopefully they'll chime in. I certainly don't disagree with you that prices have increased. But if you're suggesting there isn't a sliding scale then I would disagree with you on that. I also don't believe that the rate of increase we've seen in the past year is indicative of future increases. Nothing sustains a 40-50% increase year after year. >>
Both 1980 and 1981 boxes have doubled in value over past two years--BBCE was selling 81 wax boxes from a sealed case for $100 a year ago and they just sold out another case this week at $200 a box. Cellos boxes have doubled in value, as well. 82 and 83 boxes haven't doubled, but have risen in value as well (from around $125 to $185 for a wax box). (I am going by BBCE pricing, because it is a more accurate reflection of market value imo than random boxes on ebay, which are often sold by less than reputable sources.)
But my point is not really to debate about % increases. Nor would I make any claims that boxes will continue to rise even 40-50% year after year. I have stated repeatedly that no one knows where market value for these boxes will be in a year, or two years, or ten years. We can only address with certainty what has transpired thus far, and the fact (which has been confirmed by Steve numerous times as well) is that vintage unopened product is a) getting tougher to find in any kind of quantity. As John (gemint) also stated, serious "finds" are becoming les and less frequent over time, even in the face of rapidly escalating prices and b) prices have risen sharply and have continued to rise over the past couple of years as more and more buyers compete for what does surface for sale.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>How do these prices compare to high end modern? Guys drop a grand at card shops all the time and literally walk out with nothing. The same guys do it week after week at the card shops near me. Are any of those guys ripping vintage? If so, they really don't care about these prices. They just rip away. >>
Its gambling, and much of the time gambling with money they don't really have to gamble with.
Eh. >>
Mr. Sunshine chimes in as if on cue, lol.. >>
It is what it is. Adults walking into a card shop and plopping down money week after week on high end packs is gambling.
Probably not something dealers like to discuss, but whatevs.
<< <i>But many folks look at price increases from the 70s and believe that's what's going to happen to the 80s eventually.
It's already happened for early 80s product, which have doubled and then some in many cases already. I would not categrorize (with the exception of 1980) 80s product as scarce by any means, but no question we've seen a sharp rise in value already from 1980-1983, at least.
No one knows what's going to happen going forward. I've been collecting unopened for 20 years now, and I'd be very surprised if prices retreat in the future, put it that way. But that can happen with any collectible--fine art, coins, antiques--cards are no different. Will a PSA 9 75 mini Brett RC remain a 1K+ card a year or two from now? Who knows, but it'll be fun to watch, in any case. I think as collectors we somwtimes take ourselves a bit too seriously with all the analysis. >>
Essentially the exact thing I've been saying, except you believe theres likely to be no drawback in price and I believe there will be.
I don't hide that I dislike the financial aspect of things...the gambling, the speculating, cornering markets, etc. I think its retarded and in most cases people lose or over time maintain pace with inflation when it comes to vintage(nearly everyone loses in new product). In some cases they don't.
Now that this thread confirms a miniscule amount of people incredibly influenced certain markets, I'm more convinced of my analysis than ever. Product will dry up, yes, but with just a few players, it only takes one or two(or in this case apparently both) dropping out to place a ceiling on the market.
<< <i>Is there something from 1981-1983 that has more than doubled in the last year? I'm not leading, I honestly don't know.
I know 1981 Topps boxes on BBCE were at least $100 more than a year ago. I don't think they have any now but they seem to be selling in the $160 range on ebay (some higher, some lower). I believe 1982 Topps boxes were ~$150 on BBCE (perhaps higher?) more than a year ago. I haven't seen one go for more than $200 on ebay, but perhaps I missed an outlier. I don't remember what 1983 Topps wax boxes were on BBCE a year ago but I know that they had 1983 OPC wax boxes for $70 and that they were significantly lower than the Topps counterpart. I see 1983 Topps wax boxes selling in the $130-150 range on ebay.
Like I said, I don't remember with great clarity what the early-80s boxes were going for on BBCE a year ago and I'm sure someone else has hard data so hopefully they'll chime in. I certainly don't disagree with you that prices have increased. But if you're suggesting there isn't a sliding scale then I would disagree with you on that. I also don't believe that the rate of increase we've seen in the past year is indicative of future increases. Nothing sustains a 40-50% increase year after year. >>
1982 Cello box purchased 2/26/13 $110 Ebay #121073301157
This box is 100% legit...Opened one pack that had a Pete Rose, and after opening the cellos from the recent group rip, theres no doubt in my mind. pack was very tight and very hard to tear open(the glue or whatever was very difficult). This was the once box I had concerns about.
1981 Cello Box purchased from same seller $85 Ebay #170997487316
Too lazy to search but also picked up in the last year:
1984 Wax - $37
1985 Wax - $65
1984 Cello - $45
1985 Cello - $85
1986 Wax ~$12 including shipping
1986 Cello ~$10
<< <i>
<< <i>Is there something from 1981-1983 that has more than doubled in the last year? I'm not leading, I honestly don't know.
I know 1981 Topps boxes on BBCE were at least $100 more than a year ago. I don't think they have any now but they seem to be selling in the $160 range on ebay (some higher, some lower). I believe 1982 Topps boxes were ~$150 on BBCE (perhaps higher?) more than a year ago. I haven't seen one go for more than $200 on ebay, but perhaps I missed an outlier. I don't remember what 1983 Topps wax boxes were on BBCE a year ago but I know that they had 1983 OPC wax boxes for $70 and that they were significantly lower than the Topps counterpart. I see 1983 Topps wax boxes selling in the $130-150 range on ebay.
Like I said, I don't remember with great clarity what the early-80s boxes were going for on BBCE a year ago and I'm sure someone else has hard data so hopefully they'll chime in. I certainly don't disagree with you that prices have increased. But if you're suggesting there isn't a sliding scale then I would disagree with you on that. I also don't believe that the rate of increase we've seen in the past year is indicative of future increases. Nothing sustains a 40-50% increase year after year. >>
1982 Cello box purchased 2/26/13 $110 Ebay #121073301157
This box is 100% legit...Opened one pack that had a Pete Rose, and after opening the cellos from the recent group rip, theres no doubt in my mind. pack was very tight and very hard to tear open(the glue or whatever was very difficult). This was the once box I had concerns about.
1981 Cello Box purchased from same seller $85 Ebay #170997487316
Too lazy to search but also picked up in the last year:
1984 Wax - $37
1985 Wax - $65
1984 Cello - $45
1985 Cello - $85
1986 Wax ~$12 including shipping
1986 Cello ~$10 >>
The vast majority of raw unopened product for sale on ebay is resealed, and prices are going to reflect that, naturally. That's why if you're going to accurately conduct any kind of analysis on the values of unopened product, you should be using a more reliable metric, like BBCE prices. February is also 8 months ago, and prices have risen since then, as well.
But as I said before, and will say again, no one knows where the market will be next year or the year after. I know some are hoping prices fall so they can say "I told you so," but for there to be a pullback to even 2012 levels, there's a lot of falling left to do, lol..and I'll most certainly be a buyer should that occur, as well.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I think your comparison is interesting but I think tying it solely to scarcity might be the wrong correlation. I view unopened cards as an asset and when you view other assets they have had similar levels of appreciation from the recent recession. The Dow for example has gone from 11,000 to 15,000 in the last 2 years and you don't have to look to far to see individual stocks up well over 66% with the entire average up 40%. So I think most of the rise is due to macroeconomic factors and a small part of course due to lowering supply. >>
I don't think you can compare unopened cards to a stock or the stock market. Not to many macroeconomic factors affecting us unopened "hoarders". Just a relatively small group of people who enjoy a "hobby" The stock market on the other hand is also controlled by a relatively few people on wall street. When the time comes they will plummet the market for whatever reason they deem plausible. Unless you are a awfully good trader or a lucky market timer you will lose "again" everything that was gained over the last few years. "Buy and Hold" hasn't worked out to well for stock market investors over the last decade or so. I love people that say they are doing well in the stock market now. Of course they haven't recouped everything they lost in 2006-2008. When the stock market takes another sh#t most of us card buyers will just cut back a little on our purchases. Sorry about the rant. Hate Wall Street. I think it is the most corrupt place on the face of the earth.
I don't think there's a concerted effort on anyone's part to artificially raise prices, I think its just the nature of the hobby. Will the prices ultimately drop? That's the million dollar question, and a risk for any type of investment. While I think there are much better (read: safer) vehicles to invest in, it's surely not my place to tell anyone how to spend their money.
<< <i>But as I said before, and will say again, no one knows where the market will be next year or the year after. I know some are hoping prices fall so they can say "I told you so," but for there to be a pullback to even 2012 levels, there's a lot of falling left to do, lol..and I'll most certainly be a buyer should that occur, as well.
I don't want prices to fall (and don't believe I've ever suggested prices will fall, only that the rate of increase in the past year is unsustainable). I certainly don't care about who ends up being "right" or "wrong." I don't have a dog in this fight and don't stand to lose or make money either way. But I believe that the knowledgeable collectors, that so many that aren't as knowledgeable look up to, have a responsibility to not feed the frenzy of hype atmosphere. Just my $0.02.
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<< <i>But as I said before, and will say again, no one knows where the market will be next year or the year after. I know some are hoping prices fall so they can say "I told you so," but for there to be a pullback to even 2012 levels, there's a lot of falling left to do, lol..and I'll most certainly be a buyer should that occur, as well.
I don't want prices to fall (and don't believe I've ever suggested prices will fall, only that the rate of increase in the past year is unsustainable). I certainly don't care about who ends up being "right" or "wrong." I don't have a dog in this fight and don't stand to lose or make money either way. But I believe that the knowledgeable collectors, that so many that aren't as knowledgeable look up to, have a responsibility to not feed the frenzy of hype atmosphere. Just my $0.02. >>
I wouldn't equate enthusiastic discussions among collectors about the state of the unopened market as feeding into any kind of hype at all, though. The prices we're witnessing are actual realized prices not speculation or hype.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007
Al
<< <i>
I think your comparison is interesting but I think tying it solely to scarcity might be the wrong correlation. I view unopened cards as an asset and when you view other assets they have had similar levels of appreciation from the recent recession. The Dow for example has gone from 11,000 to 15,000 in the last 2 years and you don't have to look to far to see individual stocks up well over 66% with the entire average up 40%. So I think most of the rise is due to macroeconomic factors and a small part of course due to lowering supply. >>
I don't think it's solely macroeconomic factors. What I see in the unopened market is this sense that...."the train has left the station". You, "have to buy now". That's classic bubble thinking IMO, or very close.
The general trend over the last 20-25 years, is for vintage unopened to go up. 1950's topps packs, 60's, etc. They've certainly gotten tougher from the days of Mr Mints unopened 54/55 bowman find in the mid 80's. Or other finds in the early 90's.
The percentage increases seem pretty high though for the last few years. 1986/87 opc hockey is $1,700? That use to be $950, $1,000 for a long time. It's always been a scarce year, but something that goes up from $1,000 to $1,700 almost overnight is usually not sustainable. It's like facebook or tesla stock going from $30-50 or $100 to 150. Vs say, a utility stock or blue chip that goes from $40-60. There is some bubble element in some of these prices. I think people always look at the intrinsic value of an asset that they buy. Whether it is stock earnings or the break value of a box. They may not always keep their eye on intrinsic value, but there are always trade offs when you buy an asset. You can buy this, or you can buy X. Anything you buy is self correcting to an extent.
There also seems to be kind of a hoarding factor. Where no one is selling. I wonder what would happen in another downturn or recession.
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<< <i>Is there something from 1981-1983 that has more than doubled in the last year? I'm not leading, I honestly don't know.
I know 1981 Topps boxes on BBCE were at least $100 more than a year ago. I don't think they have any now but they seem to be selling in the $160 range on ebay (some higher, some lower). I believe 1982 Topps boxes were ~$150 on BBCE (perhaps higher?) more than a year ago. I haven't seen one go for more than $200 on ebay, but perhaps I missed an outlier. I don't remember what 1983 Topps wax boxes were on BBCE a year ago but I know that they had 1983 OPC wax boxes for $70 and that they were significantly lower than the Topps counterpart. I see 1983 Topps wax boxes selling in the $130-150 range on ebay.
Like I said, I don't remember with great clarity what the early-80s boxes were going for on BBCE a year ago and I'm sure someone else has hard data so hopefully they'll chime in. I certainly don't disagree with you that prices have increased. But if you're suggesting there isn't a sliding scale then I would disagree with you on that. I also don't believe that the rate of increase we've seen in the past year is indicative of future increases. Nothing sustains a 40-50% increase year after year. >>
1982 Cello box purchased 2/26/13 $110 Ebay #121073301157
This box is 100% legit...Opened one pack that had a Pete Rose, and after opening the cellos from the recent group rip, theres no doubt in my mind. pack was very tight and very hard to tear open(the glue or whatever was very difficult). This was the once box I had concerns about.
1981 Cello Box purchased from same seller $85 Ebay #170997487316
Too laz1y to search but also picked up in the last year:
1984 Wax - $37
1985 Wax - $65
1984 Cello - $45
1985 Cello - $85
1986 Wax ~$12 including shipping
1986 Cello ~$10 >>
Wish I would have bought 84 Topps for $37 back then. Has doubled now!!
<< <i>Its gambling, and much of the time gambling with money they don't really have to gamble with. >>
If they don't have the money, how do the get these packs?
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<< <i>
I think your comparison is interesting but I think tying it solely to scarcity might be the wrong correlation. I view unopened cards as an asset and when you view other assets they have had similar levels of appreciation from the recent recession. The Dow for example has gone from 11,000 to 15,000 in the last 2 years and you don't have to look to far to see individual stocks up well over 66% with the entire average up 40%. So I think most of the rise is due to macroeconomic factors and a small part of course due to lowering supply. >>
I don't think it's solely macroeconomic factors. What I see in the unopened market is this sense that...."the train has left the station". You, "have to buy now". That's classic bubble thinking IMO, or very close.
The general trend over the last 20-25 years, is for vintage unopened to go up. 1950's topps packs, 60's, etc. They've certainly gotten tougher from the days of Mr Mints unopened 54/55 bowman find in the mid 80's. Or other finds in the early 90's....
There also seems to be kind of a hoarding factor. Where no one is selling. I wonder what would happen in another downturn or recession. >>
I think you are making exactly my point and I agree with your comments. When things go up generally over 25 they are likely an asset that moves influenced by inflation and the economy. I also think if we had another recession that prices would go down like a typical asset or the stock market would. It would be interesting if you could compare the rise and fall in stock prices to unopened or graded cards to see how high the correlation is. Great data exists for stocks of course but finding the sports figures to use might be pretty hard unless Tim has a file of say 1982 topps cello box prices from 1982 till now??
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies