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Mariano Rivera....The Over-rated player
edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
in Sports Talk
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edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
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Most people rate him around 30th best pitcher in history(maybe 15 to 20 over the past 50 years) . To me, a similar rating as Mordecai Brown and Mike Mussina; behind Smoltz and Gaylord Perry
(I made that list over a year ago, might feel differently now)
Until Jim Caple is willing to say where he rates Rivera, his claim that he is overrated is both silly and meaningless. Saying he has a lower WAR than Rick Reuschel isn't telling us where he things Rivera should be ranked -- unless he believes WAR is a completely perfect measure of player rating. And if he believes that, he is an idiot
It seems as if the entire article was based around trying to start an argument that just isn't happening in any sort of volume. This is the basis for this entire article:
"I have read and heard a lot of people -- from bloggers to folks in major leaguer dugouts -- contend that Rivera has been more important than Derek Jeter to the Yankees' success"
Who are these people? I'd love to see links to these stories, because I have yet to hear or read a single one making this contention. He brings up WAR without comparing him to any other relievers. Mariano has a career WAR of 56.5, second on the second list Trevor Hoffman? Half that total - 28. Lee Smith? 29.
This article is ridiculous, but then, so is the OP.
It's easy to say a closer pitches very few innings so he doesn't contribute as much as a starting pitcher or a position player.
Try winning a championship without a good closer the way the game is played today.
Oh I forgot, we love to argue!
Joe Torre said that the last time baseball was moved by the retirement of a pitcher at this level was when Sandy Koufax retired.
The Yankees have. 0.950 winning percentage for games Mariano closed.
Justin pedroia never did well against Rivera.
<< <i>The Yankees have. 0.950 winning percentage for games Mariano closed. >>
It should be noted that according to the article edmund posted, 68% of his saves came with a 2 or more run lead.
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<< <i>The Yankees have. 0.950 winning percentage for games Mariano closed. >>
It should be noted that according to the article edmund posted, 68% of his saves came with a 2 or more run lead. >>
And so what if they did? We're supposed to believe that makes him less dominant as a closer? The article was flawed from the very beginning in failing to compare Rivera to ANY reliever from ANY era. Of course he's going to have a lower WAR than starting pitchers - that's a given. But the fact that the author didn't compare him to any other closer is proof positive Rivera's the greatest of all time at his position. Throw in the author's argument that some random bloggers and players (none of whom he links to these comments) rank Rivera as more important than Jeter, and you have something only useful for lining a bird cage.
This isn't to bash Rivera, who is a HOF lock, but rather just for the information.
My question on Rivera is WWED (what would Eck do) or say.
Just a cool card, not insinuating the Eck was better.
<< <i>stowns inquiry fits across so many things in the sports talk
Just a cool card, not insinuating the Eck was better. >>
What's your input here, sir? I've already stated many problems with the article. What's our opinion? My teams have exactly NOTHING to do with this conversation.
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<< <i>The Yankees have. 0.950 winning percentage for games Mariano closed. >>
It should be noted that according to the article edmund posted, 68% of his saves came with a 2 or more run lead. >>
Who cares that 68% of his saves came with a 2 or more run lead. The pitcher has no control over that.
Closers are RARELY brought in with a tie and almost never when behind or for that matter ahead by more than 4 runs.
So I guess it figures they are brought in on average with a 2 or more run lead................so what?
That being said, the kind of manufactured drama his last season has gotten (IE, All Star Game theatrics and that nonsense the other night) has been nauseating when I happened to catch a glimpse of it. (but admittedly, that's because he is a Yankee, would have been cool to see if he played for ANY other team)
<< <i>It is a very small minority of people who rate Rivera ahead of Jeter
Most people rate him around 30th best pitcher in history(maybe 15 to 20 over the past 50 years) . To me, a similar rating as Mordecai Brown and Mike Mussina; behind Smoltz and Gaylord Perry
(I made that list over a year ago, might feel differently now)
Until Jim Caple is willing to say where he rates Rivera, his claim that he is overrated is both silly and meaningless. Saying he has a lower WAR than Rick Reuschel isn't telling us where he things Rivera should be ranked -- unless he believes WAR is a completely perfect measure of player rating. And if he believes that, he is an idiot >>
Why on earth do we try to compare a shortstop to a closer? Talk about apples and oranges, this is bananas and elephants.
I can see debating by position, but in order to have success as a team you would like to have a good shortstop and a good closer, they BOTH are needed. Personally, I would rather have a great closer and good SS than the other way around.
Rivera doesn't seem overrated at all, he might just be the best closer of all time. If either of these guys is overrated I pick Jeter, but he is/was still a great ballplayer.
<< <i>My input here is you simply watch sportscenter and then post your opinions on it. >>
False. And I don't even watch sports center. Maybe when you contribute something worthwhile I'll take you seriously. Until then? You're just another troll in the wall.
<< <i>Why on earth do we try to compare a shortstop to a closer? Talk about apples and oranges, this is bananas and elephants. >>
Looking at players with what different skill sets and deciding how much they are able to help their team is a very good way to understand the sport. Refusing to look at how much each player does to help their team is a very good way to remain clueless about the sport
<< <i>Personally, I would rather have a great closer and good SS than the other way around. >>
Sounds like you are able to compare them
Unless I get Bob Gibson, I'll probably take a great closer over any other position on the team being great, but you still need a core group of great ballplayers to be a great team.
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<< <i>The Yankees have. 0.950 winning percentage for games Mariano closed. >>
It should be noted that according to the article edmund posted, 68% of his saves came with a 2 or more run lead. >>
Who cares that 68% of his saves came with a 2 or more run lead. The pitcher has no control over that.
Closers are RARELY brought in with a tie and almost never when behind or for that matter ahead by more than 4 runs.
So I guess it figures they are brought in on average with a 2 or more run lead................so what? >>
You are correct, they don't have any control over it. I just found it to be an interesting statistic and an additional way to evaluate closers. If everything else is equal, I think more credit should go to a closer that converts more saves in difficult situations (ie one run lead, runners on base, etc) rather than coming in with a padded lead and no one on base.
Let's call it the Billy Wagner effect.
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Who cares that 68% of his saves came with a 2 or more run lead. The pitcher has no control over that.
>>
Because even average closers convert something like 90% of those save chances. In other words, they aren't really 'saving' anything.
Closers are often used incorrectly. Pitching in a tie game in the ninth inning is actually a better time for the best reliever to pitch, than it is to pitch him with a three run lead in the ninth inning...but managers pitch them based on if they get a save or not.
In essence, what is flawed is the definition of a save. A three run lead in the ninth of a MLB game is closer to a 'mop up' job than it is to 'saving the game'.
Problem is, fans and managers remember the one time out of a 100 where that three run lead is blown, and it leads to a flawed perspective.
Why compare shortstops to closers? They are both baseball players. Yes, their value to their team is certainly comparable. Comparing Shortstops to football kickers would be an example of something that is not really a good thing to compare.
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Because even average closers convert something like 90% of those save chances. In other words, they aren't really 'saving' anything.
>>
And even with a blown save, the team will still go on to win the game 40% of the time
But if the Tigers had an average third baseman instead of Miguel Cabrera their chance of winning each game would have dropped from 58% to a little less than 55%. So even if Rivera only improves his teams chances of winning by a small amount, it is still in line with the very best players in the league
Also, aren't average closers still almost always among the teams very best relievers?
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<< <i>My input here is you simply watch sportscenter and then post your opinions on it. >>
False. And I don't even watch sports center. Maybe when you contribute something worthwhile I'll take you seriously. Until then? You're just another troll in the wall. >>
better than being annoying as all heck
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Because even average closers convert something like 90% of those save chances. In other words, they aren't really 'saving' anything.
>>
And even with a blown save, the team will still go on to win the game 40% of the time
But if the Tigers had an average third baseman instead of Miguel Cabrera their chance of winning each game would have dropped from 58% to a little less than 55%. So even if Rivera only improves his teams chances of winning by a small amount, it is still in line with the very best players in the league
Also, aren't average closers still almost always among the teams very best relievers? >>
NV, when looking at Win Probability Added, it shows that the elite closers do have value as high as the best position players.
However, the one hole I see with that is that the value is given more from a managerial choice, as opposed to the players real value, because the manager only puts them in the position of the highest value, and other players on the team could also serve that role quite well too and convert the saves in those high leverage situations. Many relief (middle or set up men) pitchers can fill in the stead of the starting closer, and the team hardly misses a beat. Obviously, that depends on each team, but I am talking about league average.
The same can't be said for the elite position player. One can't just find another 150 OPS+ hitter that they can plug in and do the same job at even 90% of that.
Same for the starting pitcher. Lose your 165 ERA+ guy and see what happens when you try to find another.
For example, if LA loses Kershaw in April, they will not find another starter who will come remotely close to his production. Certainly not on their roster, and not even in free agency.
But the LA Bullpen goes from Broxton to Kuo to Javy Guerra to Kenley Jensen, and with able fill ins in between. They all do the job with good Win Probability Added numbers. So they have no problem finding a new closer with a good Win Probabiliy Added. Try finding able fill ins so easily on your roster when Kershaw goes down or their best hitter. That is the difference between the value of a closer vs the elite starting pitcher or hitter.
2011 RIvera 3.3 Win Probability Added
2012 Soriano 3.0 Win Porbability added
2012 Rivera 2.6 Win Probability added
Look how easy it is to fill in the void of the closer from a guy already on the roster.
How hard of a time would the Yankees have had filling in the void of Cano from their roster?
Cano's Win Probability Added those three years was 3.1, 2.3, 4.9 for a total of 10.3. The starting closer position for the Yanks gave a WPA of 8.9 for those same three years, and probably around 9.5 when you account for the odd times when the starting closer wasn't available and somebody else did the job.
So basically, Cano and the Yanks starting closer get the same value. Look how easy they filled the void with Rivera gone, and from a guy already on the roster.
Try getting anything close to Cano production from the roster when he goes down. Won't happen, and that is where the picture starts to get more clear on who really has more value.
As it is, Rivera was a dominant closer for nearly 2 decades. I am by no means a yankee fan, but you have to tip your cap to a guy who has been as steady for as long as he's done it. To whomever it was suggesting that teams win X% of games with a 2 run lead? If it was that easy, there would be no shortage of guys doing this job as long and as well as Rivera.
Just tip your cap, appreciate the greatness, and move on. Sitting there trying to get your digs in and undermine what he's done in his career is pretty damned petty.
If you want to have a discussion about how improperly closers are used, that's an entirely different topic and deserves its own thread.
<< <i>I don't know anyone who's suggesting Rivera has more valuable than an everyday player or starting pitcher. The entire premise of the article fitz trolled this thread with was so poorly written, I would have thought it came from bleacher report.
As it is, Rivera was a dominant closer for nearly 2 decades. I am by no means a yankee fan, but you have to tip your cap to a guy who has been as steady for as long as he's done it. To whomever it was suggesting that teams win X% of games with a 2 run lead? If it was that easy, there would be no shortage of guys doing this job as long and as well as Rivera.
Just tip your cap, appreciate the greatness, and move on. Sitting there trying to get your digs in and undermine what he's done in his career is pretty damned petty.
If you want to have a discussion about how improperly closers are used, that's an entirely different topic and deserves its own thread. >>
100% agree! Let's also add that he pitched a lot of 2 inning saves compared to most that come in for the last three outs.
<< <i>Let's also add that he pitched a lot of 2 inning saves compared to most that come in for the last three outs. >>
What was his success rate when pitching 2 or more innings? Know he went 3 innings and was prepared to go 4 in the Aaron Bleeping Boone game.
<< <i>100% agree! Let's also add that he pitched a lot of 2 inning saves compared to most that come in for the last three outs. >>
Mariano Rivera had 11 saves of 2 innings or more:
2-inning saves for Mariano
<< <i>I don't know anyone who's suggesting Rivera has more valuable than an everyday player or starting pitcher. The entire premise of the article fitz trolled this thread with was so poorly written, I would have thought it came from bleacher report.
As it is, Rivera was a dominant closer for nearly 2 decades. I am by no means a yankee fan, but you have to tip your cap to a guy who has been as steady for as long as he's done it. To whomever it was suggesting that teams win X% of games with a 2 run lead? If it was that easy, there would be no shortage of guys doing this job as long and as well as Rivera.
Just tip your cap, appreciate the greatness, and move on. Sitting there trying to get your digs in and undermine what he's done in his career is pretty damned petty.
If you want to have a discussion about how improperly closers are used, that's an entirely different topic and deserves its own thread. >>
Who is getting digs in on Rivera or undermining his career?
I think it is pretty much a forgone conclusion that he is the best RP of his generation and in the discussion as THE best. That is easy.
Measuring the value of a RP compared to other players is appropriate for this thread, and is a more challenging topic...which I probably understand why you wouldn't want to discuss it.
To be clear, I'm not discussing any of that with you anyway. Until you are objective and know the difference between a hit and a fielders choice, then I may discuss such topics as that with you. In the meantime, I just enjoy getting great laughs out of your biased and flawed analysis.
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<< <i>100% agree! Let's also add that he pitched a lot of 2 inning saves compared to most that come in for the last three outs. >>
Mariano Rivera had 11 saves of 2 innings or more:
2-inning saves for Mariano >>
How about 1 1/3 and 1 2/3 innings pitched? Man you guys can find the statistics. I gotta stop listening to sports talk radio.
A remarkable 119 of Rivera’s saves lasted more than one inning. Since 1996, the long-since retired Keith Foulke is second with 55 such saves. Rivera has an additional 31 multi-inning saves in the postseason alone over that span, 14 of which required him to record at least six outs. Both of those are postseason records. Goose Gossage is second in both categories with seven multi-inning postseason saves, six of which lasted at least six outs.
From
Mariano
I feel better now.
After opening the 1995 season with Columbus, Rivera made his major league debut against the California Angels on May 23, 1995, as a starting pitcher. Replacing an injured Jimmy Key, Rivera allowed five earned runs in 3 1⁄3 innings pitched in a 10–0 loss.[26][27] He struggled through his first four major league starts, posting a 10.20 ERA, and as a result, he was demoted to Columbus.[24] As a 25-year-old rookie just three years removed from major arm surgery, Rivera's role on the team was not guaranteed. Management considered trading him to the Detroit Tigers for starter David Wells, but Yankees general manager Gene Michael quickly called off negotiations when he learned that Rivera's pitches had reached 95–96 mph (153–154 km/h) in one of his starts, an improvement of nearly 6 mph (9.7 km/h) from his previous average velocity; Rivera attributes his inexplicable improvement to God.[28] After returning to the major leagues, he participated in a two-hit shutout of the Chicago White Sox on July 4, when he recorded a career-high 11 strikeouts.[24] Overall, he finished his first season in the major leagues with a 5–3 record and a 5.51 ERA in ten starts and nine relief outings.[29] His performance in the 1995 American League Division Series, in which he pitched 5 1⁄3 scoreless innings of relief,[30] convinced Yankees management to keep him and move him into the bullpen the following season to be a full-time relief pitcher.[31]
<< <i>When are people going to figure out that team sports are made up of different individual players that serve different purposes.
It's easy to say a closer pitches very few innings so he doesn't contribute as much as a starting pitcher or a position player.
Try winning a championship without a good closer the way the game is played today.
Oh I forgot, we love to argue! >>
Indeed, I'm sure during Oakland's magical 1988-92 run, that Eck guy who typically only pitched in the ninth (sound familiar?) sure came in handy! And just like how Mo had a moment where he was human (he couldn't finish off the D-backs in 2001), Eck too had a "look at me, I'm mortal after all" moment when almost exactly 25 years ago, well I'm sure everyone knows that story by now...
Dimes: 54S, 53P, 50P, 49S, 45D+S, 44S, 43D, 41S, 40D+S, 39D+S, 38D+S, 37D+S, 36S, 35D+S, all 16-34's
Quarters: 52S, 47S, 46S, 40S, 39S, 38S, 37D+S, 36D+S, 35D, 34D, 32D+S
74 Topps: 37,38,46,47,48,138,151,193,210,214,223,241,256,264,268,277,289,316,435,552,570,577,592,602,610,654,655
1997 Finest silver: 115, 135, 139, 145, 310
1995 Ultra Gold Medallion Sets: Golden Prospects, HR Kings, On-Base Leaders, Power Plus, RBI Kings, Rising Stars
Rivera is obviously a great player, so why in the world would you try to discredit his works when it is a time to celebrate the great career of the man?
The article could have been written about why pitchers (in GENERAL) who are closers are overrated and I wouldn't have had a problem with it.
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<< <i>100% agree! Let's also add that he pitched a lot of 2 inning saves compared to most that come in for the last three outs. >>
Mariano Rivera had 11 saves of 2 innings or more:
2-inning saves for Mariano >>
How about 1 1/3 and 1 2/3 innings pitched? Man you guys can find the statistics. I gotta stop listening to sports talk radio. >>
1-1/3 innings - 74
1-2/3 innings - 34
So there ya go
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<< <i>100% agree! Let's also add that he pitched a lot of 2 inning saves compared to most that come in for the last three outs. >>
Mariano Rivera had 11 saves of 2 innings or more:
2-inning saves for Mariano >>
How about 1 1/3 and 1 2/3 innings pitched? Man you guys can find the statistics. I gotta stop listening to sports talk radio. >>
1-1/3 innings - 74
1-2/3 innings - 34
So there ya go
Yes I was able to find that. Here's part of my post that also mentions the 2nd place guy.
119 of Rivera’s saves lasted more than one inning. Since 1996, the long-since retired Keith Foulke is second with 55 such saves. Rivera has an additional 31 multi-inning saves in the postseason alone over that span, 14 of which required him to record at least six outs. Both of those are postseason records. Goose Gossage is second in both categories with seven multi-inning postseason saves, six of which lasted at least six outs.
So it's actually 150 if you include the post season. Even if you don't, he's still got more than twice the "more than an inning" saves as the number two guy.