Telling it how it is...

jmski52

I just had to chuckle about this one from ZeroHedge.

... It appears to us that many market participants are quite dissonant regarding how they should be positioned, wrestling with the competing sentiments: "I can’t afford to miss a rally, but I sure can’t afford to get killed if things go in the other direction because none of this is real."

Dissonance

Baley

Exactly the reason many people diversify their assets among classes offering offsetting performance and the chance for unlimited upside with limited downside.

cohodk

<< <i>I just had to chuckle about this one from ZeroHedge.

... It appears to us that many market participants are quite dissonant regarding how they should be positioned, wrestling with the competing sentiments: "I can’t afford to miss a rally, but I sure can’t afford to get killed if things go in the other direction because none of this is real."

Dissonance >>



Sounds to me like someone who should not be in the markets since they can't afford anything. Fear us driving their decisions. They will fail.

jmski52

Exactly the reason many people diversify their assets among classes offering offsetting performance and the chance for unlimited upside with limited downside.

I'm diversified across time with mostly pms through dollar cost averaging, and as you know my position genuinely reflects my understanding of the financial system's shortcomings. But, regarding your contention of a limited downside, there is nothing that has an unlimited upside coupled with a limited downside, and you of all people should know that.


Sounds to me like someone who should not be in the markets since they can't afford anything. Fear us driving their decisions. They will fail.

Well, the quote mentions "many market participants" so I'm assuming that they can afford something. Not knowing which way to turn in a market driven by capricious decisions within both the Fed and Congress doesn't sound like fear to me. It sounds more like confusion and a basic lack of conviction.


I bolded the part that I found most interesting, because it expresses what I've been saying about the influences of HFT, unlimited naked shorting in commodity markets, QE to infinity in the face of an exponential debt function, and the absurdity of thinking that it can go on without consequences.

But that may be lost on some.

cohodk

I find the bold part most interesting also. This is the whole artificial influence debate. I contend there is nothing artificial. Just because the FED is doing something it hasnt done before does not make it artificial. The market (all of them) are bigger than any FED. It is the markets that dictate rates. Just look at the latest round of QE--rates are 125 basis points higher now. Some see this as the FED having "lost control". But when you realize and understand that the market dictates rates you will see that everything is just as it should be.



Not knowing which way to turn in a market driven by capricious decisions within both the Fed and Congress doesn't sound like fear to me. It sounds more like confusion and a basic lack of conviction.

It sounds like me to participants playing in a market in which they have no business. If you dont understand it, then stay away. And just because you dont understand doesnt mean it is rigged or manipulated. There are lots of things I dont understand, so I just stay away from them.

Problem is understanding why PMs have not performed well in a market muddled in confusion and lack of conviction. My take would be that PMs have done quite well--gold and silver are valued 4x higher than 10 years ago. They performed as should have. Fear and greed simply pushed them to values higher than could be maintained. I contend PMs have factored in all known concerns.

Baley

Schiller suggests that None of This is Real in real estate too

What is a "normal" market, whether housing or gold? When ever was there? as in what specific time spans... thanks

VanHalen

<< <i>Schiller suggests that None of This is Real in real estate too

What is a "normal" market, whether housing or gold? When ever was there? as in what specific time spans... thanks >>



Prior to 2008 a "reasonably" free market economy existed in the U.S.

VanHalen

P.S. "None of this is real" is an exaggeration. Our modest growth rates may not be real but underlying all the fluff and charade we're still the wealthiest nation on earth. Someday soon I hope we "reset" our economy to a realistic $13 trillion/year level and reduce our spending to sustainable levels. It can happen.