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Week 1 NFL Picks

1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭
in Sports Talk
Tampa Bay at NY Jets

Jets are in terrible shape, no answers at QB and a coach already on the hot seat. Tampa wins handily.

New England at Buffalo

The pats are going to continue their long standing domination of the bills and win by 10+.

Cincinnati at Chicago

Chicago is going to ave. rough to of it this year but will beat a bengals team that struggles on the road.

Miami at Cleveland

Cleveland is going to surprise sone people this year and win this one going away.

Atlanta at New Orleans

A good week one match up. Saints win against a falcons team that is going to one back from last years lucky close game record last year.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh as the titans will struggle to run the ball.

Minnesota at Detroit

Vikings behind AP will win against a team that is going to be furiously inconsistent.

Oakland at Indianapolis

Raiders are the worst team in the league and could go winless. Colts rout them.

Seattle at Carolina

Seattle is going to do well this year but I think they struggle here. Carolina with a surprise win.

Kansas City at Jacksonville

KC wins against another team with little to root for this year.

Arizona at St. Louis

Arizona like Cleveland going to be a lot more competitive this year and wins.

Green Bay at San Francisco

SF is the cream of the crop again this year and their defense is astonishingly good. Being at home doesn't hurt either.

NY Giants at Dallas

Dallas is going to prove some folks wrong this year and actually play at an above average level and make the playoffs. Dallas wins big.

MON, SEP 9
Philadelphia at Washington

Philly upsets the RG3 lovefest and wins on th road.

Houston at San Diego

Houston should roll a chargers team in free fall.

Comments

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    CNoteCNote Posts: 2,070 ✭
    Seattle will not lose to Carolina. Duh.
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭


    << <i>Seattle will not lose to Carolina. Duh. >>



    Seattle's only favored by 3.5, and the history of west coast teams travelling to the east coast and playing what is to them a 10 am game is far from good. Throw in the Seahawks playing the niners next week, and last year's match up resulted in Seattle squeaking out a 4 point win. Sorry, it's not personal, as I really like the hawks to continue to do well this year, but this game has red flags on it for me.
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    NVbaseballNVbaseball Posts: 572


    << <i>
    Seattle's only favored by 3.5, and the history of west coast teams travelling to the east coast and playing what is to them a 10 am game is far from good. >>



    Do you have any historical data for that? Is it any different for east coast teams traveling west? Crossing time zones is one of the few things that make up home field advantage, but Seattle looks to be very strong this year

    Agree Detroit will be inconsistent. That just means they'll be good some weeks. I'll pick them to win at home

    Other disagreement is Monday Night, Washington won the division, Philadelphia won four games, even if Eagles improve by a few games and Redskins fall off by a couple (as I predict), they'll be about equal. So again, I'll take the home team.

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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭


    << <i>
    Do you have any historical data for that? Is it any different for east coast teams traveling west? Crossing time zones is one of the few things that make up home field advantage, but Seattle looks to be very strong this year.
    >>



    Study

    "Removing 2011 to focus on 2007-10 creates a larger gap. In those four seasons, Western teams were 34-72 (.321) in 10 a.m. PST starts on the road, and 33-53 (.384) in later road starts. It is safe to say 2011 was an outlier compared to the previous four seasons."

    "In trying to account for the win percentage difference on the road for Western teams, an analysis of the body clock factor is required.

    Teams that travel from the Eastern to Central Time Zone (or vice versa) suffer no ill effects with their body clock. They are still in a comfort zone.

    A home team in the Central Time Zone will start their games at noon, 3:15 p.m., and 7:30 p.m. If playing in the Eastern Time Zone, it is just one hour later at 1 p.m., 4:15 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. in primetime, which is all equal to the Central times the team is used to playing at.

    The two Mountain teams, Arizona and Denver, are used to playing their home games at 2:15 p.m. MST, which is a 4:15 p.m. game in the Eastern Time Zone. When they have to play an early game at an Eastern or Central team, their body clock is at 11 a.m. MST.

    The four Pacific teams are used to a start time at home of 1:05 p.m. PST. When they are playing an early game at an Eastern or Central team, their body clock is only at 10 a.m. PST. This is why people believe the Pacific teams are at the biggest disadvantage.

    In 2011, these six Western teams had a record of 15-12 (.556) in road games that started at 10 a.m. PST. That result was much improved from past years, thanks to San Francisco’s 5-0 record in such games. In the rest of their 2011 road starts that had a later start time (in the team’s comfort zone), the teams combined for a 9-12 record (.429)."
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    stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭
    Wow, what a misleading "study" and the quote really has nothing to do with anything.

    Wonder why that group decided on those specific years. I'm sure it had absolutely nothing to do with those four teams going a combined 115-141, 45-83 on the road, and a grand total of FOUR winning seasons (which included a couple really good SD teams [3 of the 4]). Hey, they can prove their theory by focusing on a terrible overall period and we'll call it a fact. Genius!

    Spew.
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
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    stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭
    Oh yeah, and a special mention to SD in '09 that went 7-1 on the road (wins in OAK, KC, NY, DEN, CLE, and TEN / loss at PIT).
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭


    << <i>Wow, what a misleading "study" and the quote really has nothing to do with anything.

    >>



    Please stay on topic, this is about picks, someone asked for evidence, and this is just one of many studies which conclude that west coast teams perform significantly worse on the road in 1pm EST games.

    Thank you in advance for staying on topic.

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    stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭
    Pretty confident you're confusing it with the well known handicap of East coast teams traveling West for a night game.
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭


    << <i>Pretty confident you're confusing it with the well known handicap of East coast teams traveling West for a night game. >>



    False. But please stay on topic of picks.

    Thank you again.
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    stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭
    Absolutely true, you're definitely mistaken. I'll put it in the simplest way possible. When considering picks (the topic of this thread), which time frame sounds the most brutal?

    Playing at 10:00 AM to 1:00ish PM?

    Or

    Playing at 11:30 PM to 2:30ish AM?
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭
    Stown your adamant refusal to stay on topic is noted. If you had bothered to read that article you'd have seen your idea about east coast teams playing a night game is a disadvantage and is noted as well. However there are two prime time games per week while there can be up to 10 early morning games.

    Now that that nonsense is over, back to the picks!
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    stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭
    Stop projecting your bitter disappointment of being incapable to articulate a random 'study' you found via google. If you want to immune yourself, stop posting. It really is just that easy.

    It's hysterical and hypocritical that you, of all people, lecture others of board etiquette. You bring out the worst in everyone and if anything, owe the CU posters an apology. Let's take a look at your established history:

    1) On your 4th alias, at a minimum, due to your previous three getting perma-bammed for disrupting the boards.
    2) Relentlessly troll until you get called out and then play the victim (aka pulling a Tinkerbell).
    3) When your uneducated, ignorant comments get absolutely blown away, you'll constantly spin and attempt to 'argue' semantics to save face, which always end with additional fails.

    Please, feel free to contact the mods and complain. They absolutely *love* posters that constantly play the victim card, especially ones with your history. Everyone deserves a second chance (in your case, it would be at least a fourth) but you need to prove that you've turned over a new leaf. You see, trolls are *not* entitled to respect, they have to earn it fist. I would be absolutely ecstatic if you can maintain this Eddie Haskell-like facade, though doubt you can for more than a couple days. Please, please, pretty please prove me wrong.

    I triple dog dare you.
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭
    Stown you are a hypocrite. Plain and simple. You howl and whine about people's etiquette on here yet you're nothing but a troll. You could have easily passed over this thread as you made NO PICKS and instead railed against a well known issue of West coast teams traveling to the east coast. But instead you keep harping on a point simply because you dislike it. You are a petty, pathetic little man. Why don't you do the board a favor and stop trolling and ruining perfectly good and valid threads with your garbage.
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    stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭
    I'm not surprised you've already resorted to playing the "I know you are but what am I?" card. That's what happens when you cannot refute my undeniable, factual three points. In your world, you can troll and derail threads to your heart's desire while never being held accountable for your actions and everyone else just needs to shut up. Sorry but the forums don't work that way. You can play the Tinkerbell part all you want but *no one* buys your act.

    I'm willing to give you a forth chance. Practice what you're now preaching. Based upon your established MO, I am extremely skeptical that you can but I encourage you to at least try. Words mean absolutely nothing if you're incapable to act on them.

    Again, I triple dog dare you from *this* point going forward. DO IT!
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
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    CNoteCNote Posts: 2,070 ✭


    << <i>Oh yeah, and a special mention to SD in '09 that went 7-1 on the road (wins in OAK, KC, NY, DEN, CLE, and TEN / loss at PIT). >>





    SD traveling to those places is nothing like Seattle going to Carolina.
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭
    I am so sick and tired of you stown. I am sick of you pretending to be this beacon of light here when all you do is harass and derail thread after thread, chasing your tail and doing everything you can to ruin topics I start. Nobody asked for your input on the effect of west coast teams traveling to the east coast, yet here you are, calling me uninformed without offering a SHRED of evidence to contradict me, except your name calling and hysterical antics. You bash me for googling information. That's what it's for, sir. The internet is a wonderful resource of information, you should try it sometime, instead of going around and doing everything you can to ruin topic after topic with your petty nonsense.

    Another Study

    "So I kicked open a spreadsheet and started filling in wins and losses for six teams: the Seahawks, 49ers, Chargers, Raiders, Cardinals, and Broncos. Over the last five years, I looked at their overall wins and losses, then wins and losses at 10 a.m. games (which I suppose are technically 11 a.m. games for Arizona and Denver).

    It turns out that over the last five years, those six teams have an overall win percentage of 47.71 percent. It also turns out that their win percentage for 10 a.m. games drops to 35.56 percent. That's over a 12 percent differential.

    Then again, 10 a.m. games are always road games, so maybe it's not fair to judge overall win percentage to a particular road win percentage. So I also typed in the percentages for road games that aren't at 10 a.m., and subtracted to find the win percentage for road games not played at 10 a.m. Perhaps that would be a lot closer?

    Actually, that number is 45.71 percent. That's still a more than 10 percent differential, and that's only comparing road games to road games!"

    yet another


    "Analysis: When teams travel to road games relatively close (less than 1500 miles), performance is static regardless of the distance traveled. But when teams travel 1750 miles and beyond, their chances of winning drop off and decrease between 3 and 5 percent."


    The facts back up my initial reasoning for the pick, which is what this entire thread was about, PICKS. I made a pick based on statistical evidence that shows clearly west coast teams traveling to the east coast suffer a performance drop off. At no point did I mention east coast teams traveling to the west coast for a prime time game, so your entire argument about that point is MADE UP IN YOUR HEAD. Of course an east coast team playing at what would be their normal sleep time is going to suffer. I NEVER CLAIMED OTHERWISE!

    For the love of all that's holy stown please stop this incessant bickering you seemingly can't stop yourself from entering into.


    edit: I guess we'll see Sunday how crazy my picks are, right? If I'm so off, do your own picks, but stop tearing apart mine. Sheesh!

    edit 2: Finally found a breakdown of more recent numbers. This was compiled 2002-2011, and illustrates my point even further:



    imagePost Link
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    stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭
    Denial, projection, and misdirection cannot move you forward. You're still harping on this nonsense? Go talk to a sportsbook and ask them which gets a larger handicap. Common sense alone should answer that but go ask a professional rather than relying on google. Shred of evidence? Do you really lack basic reading comprehension skills? Stating 4 teams have a disadvantage and then pulling something completely out of your rear by declaring there's up to 10 morning games. WUT?

    Boy, some people will never learn.

    *edit* Oh, now it's five teams? At least this proves, beyond a shadow of the doubt, you're consistently inconsistent. Heh.



    << <i>

    << <i>Oh yeah, and a special mention to SD in '09 that went 7-1 on the road (wins in OAK, KC, NY, DEN, CLE, and TEN / loss at PIT). >>



    SD traveling to those places is nothing like Seattle going to Carolina. >>



    HA!!

    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭
    Thank you Stown. Thank you proving finally without a shadow of a doubt what a fake and phony you are. You have proven time and again to be only interested in harping and sniping at my heels like an insolent dog.

    I've given plenty of examples of the struggles West coast teams face when traveling east. You've got nothing but insults and name calling and 'go talk to the sharps!'

    You're a fraud Stown. You are nothing but a name calling wanna be bully who ruins every thread in which I partake. Good day, sir.
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    shouldabeena10shouldabeena10 Posts: 1,357 ✭✭✭
    What a great thread.

    I'll take 1985fan over Stown by 3

    Just because I've heard Stown doesn't travel well ... for morning games.
    "Vintage Football Cards" A private Facebook Group of 4000 members, for vintage football card trading, sales & auctions. https://facebook.com/groups/vintagefootball/
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    shouldabeena10shouldabeena10 Posts: 1,357 ✭✭✭
    Ooops, almost forgot ....

    Tampa Bay

    New England

    Cincinnati

    Cleveland

    New Orleans

    Pittsburgh

    Minnesota

    Indianapolis

    Seattle

    Kansas City

    Saint Louis

    San Francisco

    NY Giants

    Washington

    Houston
    "Vintage Football Cards" A private Facebook Group of 4000 members, for vintage football card trading, sales & auctions. https://facebook.com/groups/vintagefootball/
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    stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭
    At least three of your previous aliases were perma-bammed for trolling but I'm the problem.

    Project much?
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭


    << <i>Ooops, almost forgot ....

    Tampa Bay

    New England

    Cincinnati

    Cleveland

    New Orleans

    Pittsburgh

    Minnesota

    Indianapolis

    Seattle

    Kansas City

    Saint Louis

    San Francisco

    NY Giants

    Washington

    Houston >>



    Thank you 10 for staying on topic, Sunday can't get here fast enough!
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    otwcardsotwcards Posts: 5,291 ✭✭✭
    CAROLINA (+3 1/2) over Seattle - Many are pumping the Seahawks for a Super Bowl appearance and why not? They've got a solid offense, great defense and special teams and an incredible home field advantage. The Panthers have a disaster in their backfield and their #1 wideout uses a wheelchair. It doesn't matter. The Panthers finished strong last season and are one of the teams that I look for to get off to a surprising start this season before stubbing their toes. Can't wait to see Kenjon Barner healthy and taking over the running game. But that will have to wait a few weeks. UPSET SPECIAL: CAROLINA 23, Seattle 20

    SAN FRANCISCO (-4 1/2) over Green Bay     - The other two NFC teams being mentioned as Super Bowl contenders face off in a Week 1 match up. Plenty of bad blood brewing already with Matthew's comments. The 49ers are absolutely loaded and I can't wait to see Marcus Lattimore next season. Another player I'll have to wait on. SAN FRANCISCO 27, Green Bay 20


    Houston (-4) over SAN DIEGO     - Arian's Nation took the preseason off, but he and brother Tate will be too much for a discombobulated Chargers squad. If Rivers can complete as many passes to his teammates as he does to the Texans' secondary, this might stay close, but I don't think so. Houston 30, SAN DIEGO 13

    Knock Out Pool risk of the week:     Pittsburgh

    Fantasy Sleepers: Kenbrell Thompkins WR NE, Mohamed Sanu WR CIN, Stepfan Taylor RB ARI, Chris Ivory RB NYJ
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    perkdogperkdog Posts: 29,538 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What a great thread. >>




    Totally agree! Nothing like a long drawn out battle betwwen Stown and Ax!

    Thats Old School CU Sportstalk !!!!!!!!!!!!
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,535 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Paul, what's feeling on Zach Sudfeld filling in at TE for NE? I picked him up late in a couple of drafts and with Gronk out and Hernandez in the poke, I'm expecting Brady to find him at least once in end zone vs Buffalo?


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    perkdogperkdog Posts: 29,538 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Paul, what's feeling on Zach Sudfeld filling in at TE for NE? I picked him up late in a couple of drafts and with Gronk out and Hernandez in the poke, I'm expecting Brady to find him at least once in end zone vs Buffalo? >>



    Tim, its a crap shoot. No way to tell which one of these new TE or WR he will get in a groove with.


    Sorry I dont got a better answer but if it makes you feel better I didnt draft any Patriot players this year image
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭


    << <i>Tampa Bay at NY Jets

    Jets are in terrible shape, no answers at QB and a coach already on the hot seat. Tampa wins handily. >>



    Letdown of the first round of games by far. Freeman disappearing for long stretches of the game against a decidedly subpar team tells me this will be his last year in Tampa. A terrible late penalty against Tampa when Smith was clearly out of bounds sealed their fate, but this game shouldn't have been decided by one late bad decision.



    << <i>New England at Buffalo

    The pats are going to continue their long standing domination of the bills and win by 10+. >>



    Another surprise in how close this one was, but the Pats pull it out.



    << <i>Cincinnati at Chicago

    Chicago is going to have a rough go of it this year but will beat a bengals team that struggles on the road. >>



    Cutler was able to avoid getting sacked and led the Bears to the win. AJ Green was stunning in the loss, however.



    << <i>Miami at Cleveland

    Cleveland is going to surprise sone people this year and win this one going away. >>



    3 INT's and 6 sacks is going to always result in a loss, and it sure did today. Unless that O-line gets shored up and Weeden starts making better decisions, its going to be another long season.



    << <i>Atlanta at New Orleans

    A good week one match up. Saints win against a falcons team that is going to one back from last years lucky close game record last year. >>



    Best game of the early slate, and Atlanta's luck in close games last year seems to have reversed itself. Roddy White played but was obviously not himself.



    << <i>Tennessee at Pittsburgh

    Pittsburgh as the titans will struggle to run the ball. >>



    I didn't realize Pittsburgh was going to play this game with their eyes closed. A late TD made the score look respectable, but 2 points through 58 minutes of game time is abysmal.



    << <i>Minnesota at Detroit

    Vikings behind AP will win against a team that is going to be furiously inconsistent.
    >>



    AP was predictably amazing, but Ponder taking 3 sacks and chucking 3 to the Lions doomed their cause.



    << <i>Oakland at Indianapolis

    Raiders are the worst team in the league and could go winless. Colts rout them. >>



    Pryor for over 100 yards on the ground, who saw that coming? I don't think it continues as teams will be prepared going forward, but mark another come from behind fourth quarter win for Luck, his 8th of his young career.



    << <i>Seattle at Carolina

    Seattle is going to do well this year but I think they struggle here. Carolina with a surprise win. >>



    I really thought Carolina was going to win this one, and they had the Seahawks on the ropes early. Wilson doing what he does best - performing under adverse conditions - pulls out the win.



    << <i>Kansas City at Jacksonville

    KC wins against another team with little to root for this year. >>



    Jax looks abysmal, while Reid continues the passing attack with the best QB he's had in some time.

    5-5 in the early games. Blech.
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    DboneesqDboneesq Posts: 18,220 ✭✭
    As long as you spent your money on cards this week as opposed to playing the games, you did ok!
    STAY HEALTHY!

    Doug

    Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭


    << <i>Arizona at St. Louis

    Arizona like Cleveland going to be a lot more competitive this year and wins. >>



    St. Louis pulled it out but I really liked how well Palmer and Fitz worked together.



    << <i>Green Bay at San Francisco

    SF is the cream of the crop again this year and their defense is astonishingly good. Being at home doesn't hurt either. >>



    Kap showing folks he can win with his arm as well as his legs, and might have had the quote of the year already: “If intimidation is your game plan, I hope you have a better one.” Classic. Maybe that wanna be thug Matthews will think twice before running his mouth in the media from now on.



    << <i>NY Giants at Dallas

    Dallas is going to prove some folks wrong this year and actually play at an above average level and make the playoffs. Dallas wins big. >>



    It should have been a blowout, with 6 NYG turnovers and 2 Dallas defensive scores, but Dallas finds a way to scare everyone. Anyways, a win's a win.



    << <i>MON, SEP 9
    Philadelphia at Washington

    Philly upsets the RG3 lovefest and wins on th road. >>



    I have to say this wasn't that hard to call. RG3 hadn't played in some time, and was going to be rusty. Philly had a lot of grief to unload after last year's disaster of a season.



    << <i>Houston at San Diego

    Houston should roll a chargers team in free fall. >>



    It took a call of a rule that I have never heard of before for the Texans to pull this one out. If their vaunted defense doesn't get better, it's going to be a long climb to the super bowl they aspire to.

    After a 5-5 start, I finish strong with a 4-1 run, going 9-6 to close out the week. I'll take it!
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    buntbunt Posts: 625 ✭
    You deserve the Sir Captain Johnny NoHolder award !




    image
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    1985fan1985fan Posts: 1,952 ✭✭
    Do I get the gum too?
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