The Future of Football
stown
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<< <i>If youth leagues, public school districts and colleges that are already in the red on sports start paying brain-damage awards, they'll stop sponsoring football. They won't have any choice -- insurers will drop them. This, not the NFL's litigation maneuvering, is the nuclear bomb ticking in football. >>
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So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
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<< <i>Putting aside one's love of football, if a high school or middle school was going to tomorrow institute a different program where they believed 8% (just made up a number for this post. Pick anther # if you wish) of the students would end up future brain damage and early dementia, there would be legal inspection and intervention. And rightfully so. >>
Understandable but this isn't a mandatory activity, it's a decision the kids and parents make. You know going in it's a violent sport and two bodies are hitting each other, in most cases at full effort. This isn't limited to just football but any "sport" that has a risk for injury. At what point does insurance and legal ramifications for an elected activity trump personal responsibility? It's no longer a hypothetical since precedents have been set. Is 8%, or any percentage over 0, too high for the overall good of society? That's above my pay grade but in my opinion, going down that path eventually becomes a "none for you because of the choices by a few" situation.
EDIT TO ADD: or parents?
<< <i> especially when there's the potential for being sued for lots of money. >>
Then as Guy said above, the activity will cease to exist. You could play in your backyard but any injuries will not be covered under your homeowner's insurance. (edited: yes, extreme example but that most likely would be the end result)
<< <i>Do kids not sign waivers before playing sports like this?
EDIT TO ADD: or parents? >>
When I played (late 80s to 92), we were required to have our parents sign a waiver and pay $25 per school year for insurance. (another edit: now thinking about it, the insurance may have only been $10.)
It's why the NFL was so willing to settle with the players over the concussions lawsuit. The money they paid now would pale in comparison to the negative publicity a long, drawn out trial would cost in terms of exposure in the media. It's why the NFL put so much pressure on ESPN to pull out of the PBS documentary. They see the writing on the wall - the NFL is heading down a road full of road bumps that are going to derail the whole thing.
So I ask you, do you really think parents care about their kid's health? A majority of the proof points to no. For every smart parent/player who stays away from dangerous sports, there are 100 waiting to take their spot.
<< <i>So I ask you, do you really think parents care about their kid's health? A majority of the proof points to no. For every smart parent/player who stays away from dangerous sports, there are 100 waiting to take their spot. >>
It's not going to happen overnight, but it is going to happen. What you will see will be an economic divide. Parents with means will not be sending their kids to play football, those of lesser economic status will feel the need to play the lottery (as you called it) with their kids. I have no doubt this will only escalate over the coming decades.
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<< <i>So I ask you, do you really think parents care about their kid's health? A majority of the proof points to no. For every smart parent/player who stays away from dangerous sports, there are 100 waiting to take their spot. >>
It's not going to happen overnight, but it is going to happen. What you will see will be an economic divide. Parents with means will not be sending their kids to play football, those of lesser economic status will feel the need to play the lottery (as you called it) with their kids. I have no doubt this will only escalate over the coming decades. >>
America will never run out of poor people.
A sad, but true statement. In addition to poor Americans, if regulation on the high school level impacts the quality of athlete produced in America, guess where the next hotbed of talent will be coming from? Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa and anywhere else that players can be molded without the pesky safety restrictions.
<< <i> the possibility of free college >>
If it comes with a high cost, that means it isn't free
For so long baseball was "America's Pastime," the most popular sport in the country by far. Now the World Series has about 1/3 the number of viewers it had at it's peak and can't draw higher ratings than regular season NFL games
At some point football will no longer be the most popular sport in the country. It might take a century like it did for baseball. If it happens sooner than that, it could very well be in response to head injuries. We cannot predict what the world will look like in 30 years with complete accuracy. Maybe changes will be made to limit brain damage in football, either in equipment, medicine or the sport itself.
Maybe that won't happen and participation drops by a huge amount, but the NFL can still find a few thousand willing players for the 100 million of us who watch and aren't at risk of concussions and it remains number one
Or maybe popularity in the sport declines in favor of other sports, as is the cycle for all sports -- possibly to include UFC and other fighting with extremely high health risks itself
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<< <i>So I ask you, do you really think parents care about their kid's health? A majority of the proof points to no. For every smart parent/player who stays away from dangerous sports, there are 100 waiting to take their spot. >>
It's not going to happen overnight, but it is going to happen. What you will see will be an economic divide. Parents with means will not be sending their kids to play football, those of lesser economic status will feel the need to play the lottery (as you called it) with their kids. I have no doubt this will only escalate over the coming decades. >>
Malcolm Gladwell agrees with you.
I think Gladwell usually takes interesting angles on these kinds of discusssions, and he too thinks that participation in football will eventually be determined (in large part) by class and geography.
Even without taking into account reductions of the amount of the total amount to by paid by the NFL in settlement for costs (costs of the lawsuit, including attorney fees; costs of setting up and administering a system through which monies will be paid to individual players or their families; etc.) the gross money paid divided by the total number of ex NFL players results in about $42,000.00 per player. This $42,000.00 per player figure will be much lower after the deduction of costs.
The NFL made out like a bandit. It settled a huge liability that exists (now and inf the future) for all ex players. Current and future players will not be entitled to any of the settlement money. Their rights in this area will be governed by the current and future CBA betweent he league and the players (and I bet that the CBA will get a lot thicker in size to include the contract provisions that will govern this issue].
With respect to the NFL (and college football), even if the number of parents who steer their kids away from football increases dramatically in the future, their will always be boys and young men who ignore the risks and play for the glory, fame and fortune. More and more of the players will come from poor backgrounds where economic necessity compels one to strap on the helmet and pads.
I am sure that ancient Rome had no problem finding an endless supply of men who wanted to become gladiators who performed in the Colesium before the Emperor, Roman Sentators and upper crust of the empire.
<< <i>The NFL made out like a bandit. >>
I couldn't agree with you more. The NFL settled a huge cloud of uncertainty for a fraction of what it makes in a year.
<< <i>Malcolm Gladwell agrees with you.
I think Gladwell usually takes interesting angles on these kinds of discusssions, and he too thinks that participation in football will eventually be determined (in large part) by class and geography. >>
Why stop at comparing the future of football with a military? He should have gone full throttle and predicted the eventual civil war. States demanding their right to play football and the others saying it's barbaric and cruelty to humans.
<< <i>Malcolm Gladwell agrees with you.
I think Gladwell usually takes interesting angles on these kinds of discusssions, and he too thinks that participation in football will eventually be determined (in large part) by class and geography. >>
I didn't even know this existed, and the parallels between football and the military, too, crossed my mind. I don't think it's that far removed from the realm of possibility that more and more parents are going to steer their kids in different directions, especially with the NBA and professional soccer gaining tons of traction in America's mainstream sports media.
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I think Gladwell usually takes interesting angles on these kinds of discusssions, and he too thinks that participation in football will eventually be determined (in large part) by class and geography. >>
On the lower levels, most certainly. But does that mean anything for the NFL and top NCAA Conferences? Isn't it already highly segregated?
The states of Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina and Alabama produced over 32% of all draft picks last year, those states account for 13% of the US population. Then there are states like Massachusetts, 14th in population, has only produced 49 draft picks in the past 25 years. New York and New England for only 3% of all first round draft picks since 1988. Football at the lower levels could be completely from a full 11% of the country, without changing the highest levels much at all
<< <i>Football at the lower levels could be completely from a full 11% of the country, without changing the highest levels much at all >>
You cannot take our football! THE SOUTH SHALL RISE AGAIN!!
disclaimer: this post in no way, shape, or form condones any type of civil right violation and is merely satire.
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<< <i>
I think Gladwell usually takes interesting angles on these kinds of discusssions, and he too thinks that participation in football will eventually be determined (in large part) by class and geography. >>
On the lower levels, most certainly. But does that mean anything for the NFL and top NCAA Conferences? Isn't it already highly segregated?
The states of Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina and Alabama produced over 32% of all draft picks last year, those states account for 13% of the US population. Then there are states like Massachusetts, 14th in population, has only produced 49 draft picks in the past 25 years. New York and New England for only 3% of all first round draft picks since 1988. Football at the lower levels could be completely from a full 11% of the country, without changing the highest levels much at all >>
Absolutely- it does seem already to be highly segregated. I think his (Gladwell's) point is that we'll eventually transition to a society where affluent kids are removed from the population of football players altogether (save in a few geographic areas), and the sport will be played almost exclusively by lower and working class kids and kids from Ohio, Texas, etc. This process is probably already underway, but we're still at a point where just about every high school- regardless of the affluence of the student body-- has a football team.
<< <i>and the sport will be played almost exclusively by lower and working class kids and kids from Ohio, Texas, etc. >>
That probably would apply to other states but not Texas. While I don't like admitting it, there are some powerhouses around D/FW and those neighborhoods are the polar opposite. The entire community lives, breathes, and anxiously awaits for kickoff.
Now thinking about it, kinda cultish.
Heh.