C'mon now
Dodgerfanjohn
Posts: 491 ✭✭✭
This is one that has me scratching my head going "really, really?"
Yeah drying up, but at this price, what's the point?
1979 Topps Baseball Cello Box
Yeah drying up, but at this price, what's the point?
1979 Topps Baseball Cello Box
0
Comments
Obviously ripping at this price is insane, especially wih risky cellos. So assuming the goal is to sit on it as an investment, the "fundamentals" are pretty iffy.
<< <i>This unopened craze is becoming a real bubble. All the discussion here feeds a mentality of "I need to win this before prices go even higher!"
Obviously ripping at this price is insane, especially wih risky cellos. So assuming the goal is to sit on it as an investment, the "fundamentals" are pretty iffy. >>
Dave, there are "fundamentals"??? I agree this can't continue.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>I noticed one sold about a month ago on the bay for about $860, so this isn't totally out of the realm. When does it stop??? >>
This box is beat to crud with the lone star power being a Don Sutton on the back of a pack.
On top of that, I'd wager the box has been piece mealed together.
Considering the current price of a cello pack on BBCE is $35, $840 for a box presuming they had that many cello packs, the box in this auction has well jumped the shark.
<< <i>
<< <i>This unopened craze is becoming a real bubble. All the discussion here feeds a mentality of "I need to win this before prices go even higher!"
Obviously ripping at this price is insane, especially wih risky cellos. So assuming the goal is to sit on it as an investment, the "fundamentals" are pretty iffy. >>
Dave, there are "fundamentals"??? I agree this can't continue. >>
I just don't get what supports these prices at all. With the exception of a few low pop commons and stars, PSA 9's don't even bring the grading fee. But I guess it will continue until high prices bring more supply out of the woodwork.
But even if supply is really limited -- likely with early '70's more than late -- there must still be a ceiling on how highly collectors value this stuff. A legit '71 cello pack is very tough, but that doesn't make it a $5000 item.
<< <i>
But even if supply is really limited -- likely with early '70's more than late -- there must still be a ceiling on how highly collectors value this stuff. A legit '71 cello pack is very tough, but that doesn't make it a $5000 item. >>
I agree there is a ceiling. How high that ceiling is depends on how much buyers view unopened as a collectible in-and-of-itself as opposed to buying it to hit a key card and make their money back. I think the market is already treading into that territory as there's virtually zero chance of pulling enough high grade star power from the tightly wrapped late 70s cellos to recoupe the money these boxes are fetching. You can also see that in our group rips. It's probably been years since a box was broken in a group rip which cummulatively netted more card value than the sum of the price paid for the box.
As I see it, the market is split into three categories:
Low end - Collectors looking to break packs to make money on the cards pulled from those packs
Mid range - Collectors willing to spend more money than the packs will yield simply for the enjoyment of opening a pack of cards from their youth
High end - Collectors/speculators who view unopened as an ever dwindling supply of scarce products that have great eye appeal as a collectible in unopened form.
<< <i>To me it's just plain insanity. There has to be tons of cards from 1973 on to 1980 that were not released in actual intervals or series which are still sitting in boxes and binders that need to be graded. You can still buy sets from 73 and forward cheap. I think you will see a lot more purchases of these cards in sets and lots to be submitted instead of people spending huge bucks to rip packs or just having the pleasure of having boxes sit as museum pieces because they have gotten too high priced to take a chance on ripping. Granted the mid to late 70's cards weren't as overproduced as the 80's but there is a lot of it. >>
Here again, it comes down to how many collectors are in the last two groups I listed. If collectors aren't buying unopened based on what return they'd get from opening, grading and selling the contents, then the supply of high grade raw cards still in existence has little bearing on the value of the unopened product. Only the collectors in the first group I listed really care about the cost per pack vs potential return on its contents. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if some unopened collectors already have high grade sets of the cards contained in the unopened product they are buying. That's true in a limited sense in my case.
I like to think of 1970s unopened like wine...it only has value until you open and partake.
EDIT: Of course, 1975 from the MINI valley was an exceptional vintage
<< <i>So my ex-wife and I sat 12th row to a Tom Petty concert a few years ago, I got the tickets on the bay. The evening cost us about 600.00 with dinner and drinks etc. What value did we get out of this other than the experience? One factor that is NOT emphasized enough is the "entertainment" value of breaking 1970s material that people in their 40s collected in their youth. Also, although some get into card collecting for profit or investment (they use the term fundamentals), for others it is just a hobby; although an increasingly expensive one at that.
I like to think of 1970s unopened like wine...it only has value until you open and partake.
EDIT: Of course, 1975 from the MINI valley was an exceptional vintage >>
+1
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
It's akin to paying $600 for 15th row seats when your 12 th row seats were readily available.
<< <i>Doesn't really address the now huge(IMO) overvaluation of this particular cello box.
It's akin to paying $600 for 15th row seats when your 12 th row seats were readily available. >>
I agree with you there, it is like buying 12th row but far right of the stage where you'll get a wonderful view of the speaker system
Ozzie Smith PSA 9
Ozzie Smith PSA 9
Dale Murphy PSA 10
TheClockworkAngelCollection
<< <i>Oh, come on. The box might have a PSA 10 Ozzie Smith rookie! That card has fetched 10K! It's a 1000% return on your investment. Duh!
Three sales in the 20k range in the past 18 months.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Grote what was the general range for one of these boxes 12 to 24 months ago? >>
I think they were near $400, right?
<< <i>Grote what was the general range for one of these boxes 12 to 24 months ago? >>
Two years ago Steve was selling them on his site for $450. And that was high retail at time. 12 months ago, I 'd say retail eas about $500 or so. I was buying them ten years ago for $250 all day long.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I also remember passing on 1978 cello boxes ten years ago because I though $400 was too high, lol! >>
What do those go for now $1,200+?
<< <i>
<< <i>I also remember passing on 1978 cello boxes ten years ago because I though $400 was too high, lol! >>
What do those go for now $1,200+? >>
Not quite there yet though may be soon! Lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
MY GOLD TYPE SET https://pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/complete-type-sets/gold-type-set-12-piece-circulation-strikes-1839-1933/publishedset/321940
<< <i>It certainly can't hurt. When the power ball goes sky high they sell the most tickets with the lowest odds of winning. >>
The amount of tickets sold overall does not affect your odds of winning the lottery.
The really mind boggling aspect of this (to me) is that the seller has almost 5,000 other items for sale and virtually none of them are vintage unopened. Really? This is the seller you're going to go ape$hit with? An ebay seller with little to no experience selling vintage unopened? And it's a cello box? Good luck.
<< <i>
<< <i>It certainly can't hurt. When the power ball goes sky high they sell the most tickets with the lowest odds of winning. >>
The amount of tickets sold overall does not affect your odds of winning the lottery.
Explain this one.
<< <i>Bidders willing to pay these prices are buying to hold and have no interest in the potential value of the cards in the box. Unopened product is establishing new highs with each passing year (or month it seems) but it has very little to do with a possible psa 10 Ozzie which is essentially impossible to find in a cello pack anyway. >>
I couldn't have said it better. I collect pre-1980 unopened (all sports) and I don't buy to open. I buy for the scarcity (and beauty, IMO) of unopened material. If I wanted any card from the 1950's-'70's they are all readily available in high grade PSA slabs any day so I'd just buy the card. IMO there are just as many people buying unopened to hold as there are people busting the packs. Every pack or box busted is another one gone from the hobby so prices will continue to gradually rise IMO. I think the unopened prices of today are a drop in the bucket of what they will be in 10-20 years.
Happy collecting!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>It certainly can't hurt. When the power ball goes sky high they sell the most tickets with the lowest odds of winning. >>
The amount of tickets sold overall does not affect your odds of winning the lottery.
Explain this one. >>
I found the answer. It is 1 in 175 million at all times in Powerball to hit the exact number. You learn something new everyday.
<< <i>I couldn't have said it better. I collect pre-1980 unopened (all sports) and I don't buy to open. I buy for the scarcity (and beauty, IMO) of unopened material. If I wanted any card from the 1950's-'70's they are all readily available in high grade PSA slabs any day so I'd just buy the card. IMO there are just as many people buying unopened to hold as there are people busting the packs. Every pack or box busted is another one gone from the hobby so prices will continue to gradually rise IMO. I think the unopened prices of today are a drop in the bucket of what they will be in 10-20 years.
Happy collecting! >>
This is exactly what I was trying to argue in that thread several months ago in which people were trying to say that unopened product is only worth what cards come out of it....and I was saying "no way"! There is much more to the value of unopened than that. Same goes with 1980s and even 1990s unopened. You can buy any of those sets in MINT condition for a fraction of what the unopened boxes go for.
<< <i>There are a finite number of numerical possibilities based on the parameters of the particular lottery. Every possible number has the same odds of turning up, which means that every possible numerical combination has the same odds of turning up. Your odds of picking the exact numerical combination aren't affected because the guy next to you also bought a ticket. >>
That is pretty wild.
<< <i>There are a finite number of numerical possibilities based on the parameters of the particular lottery. Every possible number has the same odds of turning up, which means that every possible numerical combination has the same odds of turning up. Your odds of picking the exact numerical combination aren't affected because the guy next to you also bought a ticket. >>
That is correct in as far as getting the correct numbers but the more people that play, the higher chance you'll have to split your prize with other winners, lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>There are a finite number of numerical possibilities based on the parameters of the particular lottery. Every possible number has the same odds of turning up, which means that every possible numerical combination has the same odds of turning up. Your odds of picking the exact numerical combination aren't affected because the guy next to you also bought a ticket. >>
That is correct in as far as getting the correct numbers but the more people that play, the higher chance you'll have to split your prize with other winners, lol.. >>
That makes since. I couldn't for the life of me figure out how it didn't reduce your chances in some way.
<< <i>It doesn't reduce your chances of winning at all. The amount of sold tickets will affect your ROI. However, probably not in the way you'd imagine. If the pot gets big enough it is actually possible for the lottery to have a positive ROI. >>
No matter how many tickets are sold though, I can't envision a scenario where an increase in the gross amount of the prize would offset splitting the prize with one or more other winners.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>It doesn't reduce your chances of winning at all. The amount of sold tickets will affect your ROI. However, probably not in the way you'd imagine. If the pot gets big enough it is actually possible for the lottery to have a positive ROI. >>
No matter how many tickets are sold though, I can't envision a scenario where an increase in the gross amount of the prize would offset splitting the prize with one or more other winners. >>
Obviously, no matter how big the grand prize gets, it will always be better to not split it with anyone. However, you're talking about an isolated incident that has fantastically miniscule odds of occurring. I'm talking about playing the lottery as a whole, including all of the subsequent prizes and payouts. But honestly, if anyone wins the lottery's grand prize and complains about having to split it with another person then they have problems that go far beyond the abilities of this humble message board.
As far as a ceiling on prices, I figure it probably is when the per pack price exceeds the value of the most expensive card you could pull because a lot of what drives the demand for unopened are those "rippers" or gamblers who like to take a shot at opening a vintage pack and pulling out an expensive card or a card that is worth more than the price of the pack. That wouldn't necessarily be my personal price ceiling but I believe that would be what the market would top out at for packs in a specific year.
$30 for an unopened pack of 1979 topps, while it certainly is more than it may have cost just 6 months ago, doesn't seem that expensive from a pack collector's perspective. It is a 34 year old pack and topps produced a lot less quantity back in 1979 versus the 1980s or 1990s.
My two cents anyways.
<< <i>Count me as another wax pack and wax box collector who buys and collects unopened packs and boxes not for the value of the cards inside of them or with any inkling or plan on opening them up but purely on their collectible nature. I really enjoy the graphics on the packs and boxes. I also collect vintage wrappers and boxes (especially in cases where the unopened packs are out of my price range). There is also a dwindling supply of unopened 70s wax and while you can certainly find plenty of graded and ungraded singles, its quite tough to find a significant quantity of unopened packs. Just as someone may enjoy looking at and displaying their PSA 8 Nolan Ryan rookie card, I enjoy displaying and looking at my unopened packs and boxes. I collect cards too of course, but have always been fascinated with the unopened nature of baseball cards in their original packaging. I am sure it evokes memories of buying them as a kid and opening them up and playing with the cards too. I would always buy multiple boxes and packs when I was a kid, and open some and keep some unopened. Just wish I had bought more 1970s wax and cello and rack prior to this latest run up in prices. Perhaps prices will level out and us collectors can add more to our collections.
As far as a ceiling on prices, I figure it probably is when the per pack price exceeds the value of the most expensive card you could pull because a lot of what drives the demand for unopened are those "rippers" or gamblers who like to take a shot at opening a vintage pack and pulling out an expensive card or a card that is worth more than the price of the pack. That wouldn't necessarily be my personal price ceiling but I believe that would be what the market would top out at for packs in a specific year.
$30 for an unopened pack of 1979 topps, while it certainly is more than it may have cost just 6 months ago, doesn't seem that expensive from a pack collector's perspective. It is a 34 year old pack and topps produced a lot less quantity back in 1979 versus the 1980s or 1990s.
My two cents anyways. >>
I share this perspective, as well. Of course, it's nice to dream about a potential PSA 10 rookie card inside a sealed vintage pack, but that is not what drives me to pursue unopened product. Every now and then I like to open a few packs, as many here know, lol, but for me the appeal is preserving product that has survived all these years in its original packaging.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.