Getting your rarity fix, is there no end?

LochNESS

A little story about an addiction to rarity, then a question ...

My dad introduced me to numismatics, and was the first to explain to me the concept of rarity. It was a basic definition, part of a larger discussion about what makes coins valuable/collectible. He's a litesider (we all know US mintages can be enormous, and I was young and boggled by huge numbers!) so I was thrilled if I found a coin whose mintage was under a half million.

When I found the Darkside, I was amazed at how easily one can acquire coins with mintages under 50,000. Then I started working part-time and bought some NCLT with mintages < 20,000 ... then 10,000 ...

As I grew older still, I kept climbing 'the ladder' so to speak, and discovered essai and probas with mintages under 5,000 ... 1,000 ... 500 ... even some Caribbean NCLT issues from Franklin Mint are under 500 ...

Today I still check the "rare" box for any coin in my collection with a mintage under 1,000 but deep inside I really don't consider it rare unless there are < 100 known. And to be honest, even that number, as I type it, feels excessively high.

Over this past weekend, I bid and won a coin from a Middle Eastern nation which is arguably a truly rare coin. It was struck by the Royal Mint as a trial pattern for the kingdom, and was never released into circulation. But naturally a few escaped into the hands of collectors. Even better, this NEWP is slabbed MS65 by our hosts. Score! Right? I was certainly pleased. Until I entered the cert # into my Set Registry and learned there are three others graded ... and that doesn't even count any NGC specimens ... all of the sudden my super rare "one of a few" is now "one of at least four, and probably more"

How do you get your rarity fix, and IS THERE NO END?

coinkat

Please do not get caught up on mintage numbers... It is the surviving population that matters.

So when you look at some of these modern sets from various regions of the world, think how many have been melted. Then look at the country and whether coins will ever be collected either as an investment or out of national pride/history etc.

I still like the Dollar coins that are silver from Singapore-

SmEagle1795

I'm very glad you brought up this topic, as I've recently been doing some experiments of my own (and I apologize that this post will deviate slightly from the topic at hand). This viewpoint is from the perspective of the dark-darkside (ancients), and for the purpose of simplicity, I'll assume the current known populations of coins will never change (no new hoards will be found).

When I was building my liteside collection, I set a bar where I would include nothing more common than an R5 (variety included, around 75 known). Mintages from US coins are massive and if I can find two of them at any show, I'm wasting my money now as I can always get one in the future. This mentality caused a massive selloff within my collection which I don't regret for an instant. I started down this path with ancients as well, but have recently changed my thinking slightly.

As many know, it isn't hard to find a unique ancient coin, but usually the differences are indistinguishable or the condition/artistry leaves something to be desired. However, the connotation of "extremely rare" or "unique" leads people down the path of it being excessively expensive, but that isn't what is actually seen in a number of cases.

Therefore, value must be derived somewhere else. Artistic appeal, including centering, quality of strike, and a number of similar variables play into the overall assessment of a coin. The finest styles of coins go for many multiples over their less skillfully engraved brethren. This makes sense, and I can definitely appreciate this attribute. The size of the coin (denomination) also makes a significant difference - a dekadrachm costs much more than a nearly identical tetradrachm.

The "story" behind the coin is also important - if it depicts someone/something everyone knows (Zeus, Heracles, Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, etc.) demand is considerably higher than a run-of-the-mill generic design.

Where I begin to get confused, however, is where rarity and artistic quality combine, but the price doesn't reflect it. Similarly, some extremely common coins go for inconceivable prices when they have poor artistic qualities but are one of those coins that people seem to need.

Recently, I've asked several people (collectors and non-collectors) to sort my small-in-number collection by their preference, starting with their favorites and what they think would be the most expensive, down to the cheapest coins. What I tried to understand with this experiment is: what if a multi-billionaire came in, knowing nothing, and wanted to buy some coins? What coins would they think are the best, and are there "sleeper" coins which are disproportionately weighted either up or down on the continuum of the collection? How has value been established historically, as clearly, there are coins which are common but excessively expensive?

The results of this experiment were very enlightening to me. There was a surprising amount of similarity in the results between everyone I asked. I intentionally left out expert ancient collectors but did include mid-level experienced ancient collectors, and the results fell almost exactly the same across the board, showing that incidentally, one of my lesser-expensive coins is in the top three in overall appeal to almost everyone.

What I find particularly interesting about this coin is that it also hits on a number of the areas of desirability: it is the finest of only four known (by a longshot), nicely toned, with proof-like surfaces, well centered, and has a strong portrait. I did not describe it as the finest known, or mention its rarity, although I did include the historical background on all of the coins as they definitely make a difference.

So, why was it so "inexpensive"? (It wasn't cheap, but compared to my other coins, this was a steal, if rated compared to some of the others which were many times more expensive)

This experiment has caused me to stop focusing so much on rarity and instead look at the other attributes of the coins I'm pursuing. But when rarity, grade, eye appeal, and artistry combine, AND the coin is surprisingly inexpensive, I can't complain

And, in case you're interested, here's the coin I'm referring to:

LochNESS

coinkat,Yes of course, I was just illustrating my transition from an American view of "rarity" to a Darksider view of the term. All of the mintages in my books are the surviving figures not quantity struck.

SmEagle1795, condition rarity is equally as addictive as population rarity! Your coin is gorgeous, by all accounts, and I am happy for you to have gotten such a deal. I agree there are of course many factors in purchasing a coin besides mintage (or population).

Anyway my point was that it's like a drug! Addicted to finding the rarest coin, whatever your scale may be.

Iosephus

SmEagle1795 makes some great points about value and rarity vs. artistry.

In regards to your question:


<< <i>How do you get your rarity fix, and IS THERE NO END? >>


It's simple, collect medals

They are far rarer than coins, and their artistic quality also tends to be high. You can throw in patterns like you mentioned and other "making of" items that can also be very rare.

Where is the end? Well, I own three items which are (presumably) unique, and you can't get much rarer than that! Of course, collecting outside of the mainstream coin collecting interests makes these affordable to an average Joe.

LochNESS

Josephus, I have an uncle in Albany who collected medals for many, many years. I have a large box that he asked me to sort and sell. Can I send a PM or two, down the road, if I have any questions?

I don't know why but I got a bug in me years ago that wants only legal tender issues. NCLT walks that line very finely, IMO even more delicately than patterns and trial strikes. But I do love my NCLT every now and then!

Some forum members have likened the Franklin Mint proof sets of the Caribbean nations to medal collecting. I don't think I'd go that far, but I own a few of those sets. Perhaps someday I'll buy a medal.

Bottom line, I'm wise enough to know that I'm too young to make claims about things I'll "never" buy

Iosephus

<< <i>Josephus, I have an uncle in Albany who collected medals for many, many years. I have a large box that he asked me to sort and sell. Can I send a PM or two, down the road, if I have any questions? >>


Sure, feel free to PM me whenever. However, I'll freely admit that there's an excellent chance I'll be completely useless. For the past several years, I've focused exclusively on papal medals, broadening recently to general Italian medals of the Renaissance and baroque periods, but I can try.

I understand what you are saying about preferring legal tender coins, though you are wise not to say "never".

LochNESS

I think my biggest obstacle will be identifying the medals, and finding references of pricing and population data.

SYRACUSIAN

It's a legitimate question or fear, and a very personal one too. IMHO, the more somebody sees, buys, sells or trades coins, the more likely he is to demystify them at some point. Several dealers still have a collector inside them, but a very demanding collector after handling both common coins and rarities over the years. I believe that in the end, it's a very personal matter of what's worth owning and what's not.

RobP

If you want a rarity fix, look at the official outputs of various issues and take it from there. Rather more productive would be a change in collecting focus and consider patterns and proofs. On the whole, unless issued as part of a commemorative year set for the general public, proofs and patterns were struck in very small numbers, including unique pieces. You may well find that from a population that can be measured in single figures, there are still a few slabbed because they tend to be found in high grade. Also, what do you define as rarity? To me, rarity is either an issue with an extremely low mintage, or a common collectable coin with far more collectors than available examples. Both are likely to put upward pressure on prices, with the common coin in uncommon grade producing the higher result. You can however have extremely rare coins that no one collects and are priced accordingly. I have always had a liking for Soho Mint patterns and proofs. Some of these are excessively rare, some less so, but all tend to go in a fairly consistent price bracket. If they were currency with a mintage of half a dozen, you would be talking thousands or tens of, and not hundreds.

LochNESS

Excellent points, all!

RobP, patterns and proofs are exactly what I collect. Sometimes they are even proof patterns! You got the nail on the head there. However, I do have some business strikes with lower mintages than their proof siblings. I find this is most often the case with NCLT, which are typically struck in proof. Finding the MS version of those (if one was even struck at all) is often quite a challenge.

Also, in my experience, currency has always been more expensive than coins. Just the nature of the beast. I believe it's primarily due to preservation issues (condition rarity in PQ or Gem state).


<< <i>You may well find that from a population that can be measured in single figures, there are still a few slabbed because they tend to be found in high grade. >>


I had not considered this, actually. Thanks for pointing it out. I think it sounds logical. >>





<< <i>Also, what do you define as rarity? >>


When I was younger, it was textbook low mintage + top condition. Now that I'm older (and hopefully wiser) I also consider how common they are in the marketplace. I have a coin from Ecuador, for example, of which there are supposedly only 35. However you can find one on eBay any given Sunday, as they say. It may actually be 1-2 per month but that's still way too often.


<< <i>You can however have extremely rare coins that no one collects and are priced accordingly. >>


I have a few of these and I LOVE THEM
Collectors of India are finally having their long-awaited payday, unfortunately I don't believe today's economy will support very many sales at today's valuations. The real trick is cashing out when the values AND the economy are peaking.