Chris Davis
jdip9
Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
30 HRs on June 30. Funny, another Boras client magically put up outrageous statistically outlying numbers as he became arbitration eligible (Ellsbury)....just saying....
0
Comments
Been a while since anyone hit 30 in the first half, 30 in the second half seems to be more common. Be great if he can keep the pace
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
<< <i>30 HRs on June 30. Funny, another Boras client magically put up outrageous statistically outlying numbers as he became arbitration eligible (Ellsbury)....just saying.... >>
It's not just Boras' clients, and anyone who thinks that MLB players aren't still in large scale using PEDs is woefully naive, ignorant, or both. PED use is only getting more elaborate and sophisticated, and has been going on for as long as there's been baseball.
I watch every O's game, and he just mashes the ball. He has an upper cut swing and if he makes solid contact on the barrel of the bat, the ball is gonna go out with all of his strength. Its been great watching him hit. The stadium is electric when he comes up to the plate.
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
While I still think PED use is prevalent, I'm not sure it is at the level it was 5-10 years ago. Power numbers seem to suggest that their use has waned. Players realize now that all it takes is one great year to secure a long-term $70m+ contract, so I suspect that they cycle on for a season and then go off of them, so as not to get caught.
<<<Ellsbury only hit 30 homeruns for the entire year>>>
That's not the point...Ellsbury hasn't hit 30 home runs in all the other years of his career combined. It was the one statistically outlying season that is all anyone seems to remember. Someone will pay him $15m+ per year on the hope that he can duplicate it. Unfortunately, unless he juices up again, he won't come close. He's a $8-$10 million per year guy, tops.
<< <i>That's not the point...Ellsbury hasn't hit 30 home runs in all the other years of his career combined. It was the one statistically outlying season that is all anyone seems to remember. Someone will pay him $15m+ per year on the hope that he can duplicate it. Unfortunately, unless he juices up again, he won't come close. He's a $8-$10 million per year guy, tops. >>
If you believe his drug use is worth $5 to $7 million per year, why would you believe he would ever stop?
<< <i>
<< <i>30 HRs on June 30. Funny, another Boras client magically put up outrageous statistically outlying numbers as he became arbitration eligible (Ellsbury)....just saying.... >>
It's not just Boras' clients, and anyone who thinks that MLB players aren't still in large scale using PEDs is woefully naive, ignorant, or both. PED use is only getting more elaborate and sophisticated, and has been going on for as long as there's been baseball. >>
The corollary to this is that anybody who insists that they ARE in large scale still using PEDs is being presumptuous. The fact is, nobody really knows what the level of PED use is in MLB; it could be incredibly high, or negligible, or somewhere in between. What we do know, however, is that in a case like this the burden of proof clearly lies with those making the accusation, since nobody can reasonably be tasked with proving that PED use ISN'T happening on a large scale.
See, case closed.
That's why you should keep an eye on Joey Gallo. If he ever learns to make contact (122 Ks in roughly 90 games this year), look out. He hit a ball last year that went clear over a light pole in right field and had to have traveled at least 475 - 500 feet. Just a ridiculous, mammoth shot the likes of which I've never seen here before.
Because there is no need for him to continue using and possibly get caught. He's already established his potential with his one monster season. Someone will pay him huge money hoping he can re-create that season. He will never come close.
Strip out 2011, and Ellsbury is pretty much Michael Bourn, who at $12m+/year is almost universally regarded as way overpaid for his skill set.
<< <i>Because there is no need for him to continue using and possibly get caught. He's already established his potential with his one monster season. Someone will pay him huge money hoping he can re-create that season. He will never come close.
Strip out 2011, and Ellsbury is pretty much Michael Bourn, who at $12m+/year is almost universally regarded as way overpaid for his skill set. >>
So that means one year of drug use is worth more than $30 million on a five year contract with very little risk of getting caught. If that is true, it's hard to believe drug use isn't widespread. We should be giving a lot of credit to guys like Ellsbury who know for sure have stopped using
<< <i>In todays game it is absolutely fair to assume a guy smashing HR's at a record pace is on PEDS, its the first thing that came to my mind when I look at the HR stats of this guy... >>
But if you look beyond those numbers, you'll see a guy striking out less and walking more. That has nothing to do with any PED use, that has everything to do with his evolution and improvement as a hitter. It also speaks volumes to what happens when you give a talented guy consistent playing time. Last year was the first time he's played anywhere near a complete season. His 139 games last year was the most since 113 in 2009.
It's easy to say 'woah this guy came out of nowhere!' but even a short glance at the full story will tell you much more.
<< <i>The corollary to this is that anybody who insists that they ARE in large scale still using PEDs is being presumptuous. The fact is, nobody really knows what the level of PED use is in MLB; it could be incredibly high, or negligible, or somewhere in between. What we do know, however, is that in a case like this the burden of proof clearly lies with those making the accusation, since nobody can reasonably be tasked with proving that PED use ISN'T happening on a large scale. >>
Why use logic, reason, and common sense when you can be an anonymous troll, with zero accountability, misstating your opinions as facts, and then resort to name calling if anyone disagrees with you?
Aside from the obvious example of Roger Maris' anomalous 61 HR...
Johnny Bench began by hitting 15 and then 26 HR in his first two full seasons... Then erupts for 45.
In 1982 Robin Yount went from a career .275ish mark to hit .333.
Paul Molitor dropped a .353 mark in 1987 and his prior two seasons were .280 and .290.
In 1973 Davey Johnson hit 43 HR-- his next highest total was 18 in a season.
George Foster was in the league around seven years before erupting for some huge HR totals, eclipsing 50 then hitting 40-- and aside from that never hit 30.
Maddux had these ERAs... 5.61, 3.18, 2.95, 3.46, and 3.35... then he dropped into the low 2s and 1s.
Duke Snider's first four seasons, he was a 20-30 HR guy. Then he suddenly becomes a 40 HR guy.
Sandberg has a very anomalous 40HR year after being a guy who averaged about 20 for many years prior.
Alomar was a single-digit HR guy until he suddenly learns to hit 20+ a year.
Dawson's 87 season would surely be met with steroid talk today.
Ripken has a pretty substantial power surge in 1991, going from three straight years at 23, 21, and 21 HRs...to a whopping 34.
Before age 30, Dwight Evans had never hit 30 HR, reaching 20 only 3 times in 8 full seasons. Then from age 30 on he hits 30HR+ three times.
Going way back, Zack Wheat, over his first 11 years, hit about 7 HR a year. Then he starts hitting 14.
Darrell Evans has two very strange 40HR campaigns, separated by almost a decade of averaging closer to 20 a year.
In 1945, Phil Cavarretta wins the batting title with a .353 average. In his first seven seasons he was more like a .270 hitter.
Keith Hernandez begins his career like this... .250, .289, .291, .255... then .344.
Davey Johnson and Darrell Evans were teammates for their 40 home run years. Along with Aaron the first team with three players over 40 home runs. There was a pretty big park effect going on
Check out Duane Kuiper in 1977 compared to every other year
Every player in the history of all sports has had a year that was better than any other year. Sometimes it's easy to see (Ron Guidry), other times we have to look a little harder to decide which it is (Eddie Murray). That is undeniable proof that all players have all used steroids, including Chris Davis
<< <i>Wow, some of these posts give totally new meaning to the "straw" man argument - probably have been watching too many Obama speeches. Those of us who are suspicious could be basing our thoughts on many things. Personally, I have seen him play a lot. Look at the guy's body - he could be in the WWE. Yah, he might work out, but does that mean no one else is? I am personally suspicous as I have sat through over 25 years of watching PED players versus those that are not. I can tell the difference in how the ball jumps off the bat and how quickly the body changes (not to mention the T boosting drugs). Most of us that are suspicious are not convicting him and this is not a freaking courtroom so I am not required to provide absolute proof before I question the guy. It dont sit right with me that this guy is hitting at a Barry Bonds PED pace without near Barry Bonds ability even pre-PED. I think peeps that are suspicious are more reasoned in their opinions than the apologist arguments I have read. >>
The fact that you people who want to convict the guy without so much at even looking at the numbers behind the power numbers is ridiculous. Look at his body? Yes, he's 27, and in the prime of his career, and has access to some of the best training and nutrition in the world. Of course he's going to be bigger than he was a few years ago - most every player is.
By the way, you can't say 'I'm not convicting the guy!' while in the same paragraph same something along the lines that there's no way he could get this big without taking something. In addition, the only 'reason' you have for your opinion is he's bigger than he was, and you feel you're an expert in how the ball 'comes off his bat'.
Sorry, pal, just because you don't like the FACTS and STATISTICS that prove he's not just hitting for more power but making more contact, walking a hell of a lot more, and striking out a lot less, doesn't make our side any less 'reasonable.
In all fairness, he has a great swing
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.