and just as in tech stocks in 2000-2001, there are folks who were on board early, and they made a lot of money in the "enthusiasm" and "greed" stages, who cling to the belief that they know something that the market doesn't, even after the market changes direction, and maintain that this time it's different, and this "thing" (this stock, that rental property, the other precious metal) is just the greatest thing, and will just return to new highs once the manipulations ends and everyone "gets it" like they do and the thing reaches its True Value (which would, naturally, be a continuation of the Above Average Ascent rate from before)
every stock chat board had a few Champions of the company or no-money-down strategies (and still do) who will end up sailing or stalling with the prevailing winds (vs other investments) or be anchored to it if used dollar cost averaging to add good money to bad, or go down with the ship if they went all in or (yikes) used margin and leverage to try to get 'back where they were' at the peak valuations.
The best of them trade around a position and make income even as the underlying declines in value, but many many are left holding the bag (that's why they call it that), they were relatively small ones but I admit to be left holding some bags from the previous precious metals bubble of 1980, stocks in 1987, real estate in 1994, stocks again in 2001, stocks, metals, and real estate in 2009, and damn it, metals again in 2012-2013. All of them, Bought low, sold some for profits/rebalancing on the way up (too early, generally) held the rest too long after the peak was past, and bought more on the way down (buying opportunity!) that I was stuck with for a while until I either gave up and sold for a loss or waited a long long time for it to finally come back.
I don't think metals are going all the way to the bottom again because the mean line is still pretty strong, but it sure looks like it's pointing to 1150 gold and 17 silver (remember when Jane Wells from CNBC went to the coin show on air in 2011 and showed all the shiny bullion selling at all time record highs? if not a clear sell signal, it was a "get ready to sell" signal because it's been pretty much downhill since then
oh well. .. .. so... what assets are in the steath/early awareness phase right about now? wouldn't mind putting a few eggs in a new basket before the media attention/enthusiasm phase gets a hold of it.
I don't think metals are going all the way to the bottom again because the mean line is still pretty strong, but it sure looks like it's pointing to 1150 gold and 17 silver (remember when Jane Wells from CNBC went to the coin show on air in 2011 and showed all the shiny bullion selling at all time record highs? if not a clear sell signal, it was a "get ready to sell" signal because it's been pretty much downhill since then
I sense that you haven't capitulated. Hurry up and sell, willya?
Seriously - if price were the only consideration and if I were playing with the big boys, I probably would have sold some metals awhile ago. But it's not, I don't, and I didn't.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
That's just another logarithmic exaggerated look. Give us a true linear chart to look at, and it appears truly different.
A picture is worth a thousand words, but when the picture is of an altered non factual appearance, the words emanating form such distortions are also disorientated and unreliable.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
looks like 2008 (as I have pointed out in the past) with a bigger correction. Gold rebounded then to new highs. Hopefully there is a direct relationship between depth of correction and ceiling of new high.
This is nothing more than round two of modern economic policy failure. Repeal of Glass Stegall started it, FOMC mis-management is continuing it. Stackers need to understand that virtually no asset escapes a dash to cash. And once again when cooler minds prevail cash will be seen for risk that it is.
A quick review of how various assets responded the last time, both downward and then upward, is in order. I expect metals to lead the pack once again.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>That's just another logarithmic exaggerated look. Give us a true linear chart to look at, and it appears truly different.
A picture is worth a thousand words, but when the picture is of an altered non factual appearance, the words emanating form such distortions are also disorientated and unreliable. >>
Neither of these are log charts. Nothing is altered.
if price were the only consideration and if I were playing with the big boys, I probably would have sold some metals awhile ago. But it's not, I don't, and I didn't. Emotion responses net similar results. This is why the 2 charts are almost identical.
No Dont pursue a job as a market technician.
Looks like we'll get our $300 gold during the despair phase! YeeHaa! I think $300 is unlikely. Even a 70% correction--a normal bubble burst--is probably extreme due to the long depressed nature of gold for 2 decades. I've been looking for 1150-1250 and for all intents purpose, we are there. I would not rule out a quick visit to $1000, but that price level would be very temporary.
COMEX will be vaporized before you ever get there, sorry. COMEX will be in existence long after we are not.
Ive only held a position-long or short-in but a handful of trades out of 10,000s for more than 6 months. I don't believe I have ever held a short in gold for any extended of time. In fact I don't think I have shorted gold more than a few times. It just isn't really volatile enough for a trader.
cohodk
Posts: 18,621 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
You know that we're in a control economy, don't you? Well, it's not in control the way they'd like it to be. If it was, gold would be at $300.
I knew it would happen.
and just as in tech stocks in 2000-2001, there are folks who were on board early, and they made a lot of money in the "enthusiasm" and "greed" stages, who cling to the belief that they know something that the market doesn't, even after the market changes direction, and maintain that this time it's different, and this "thing" (this stock, that rental property, the other precious metal) is just the greatest thing, and will just return to new highs once the manipulations ends and everyone "gets it" like they do and the thing reaches its True Value (which would, naturally, be a continuation of the Above Average Ascent rate from before)
every stock chat board had a few Champions of the company or no-money-down strategies (and still do) who will end up sailing or stalling with the prevailing winds (vs other investments) or be anchored to it if used dollar cost averaging to add good money to bad, or go down with the ship if they went all in or (yikes) used margin and leverage to try to get 'back where they were' at the peak valuations.
The best of them trade around a position and make income even as the underlying declines in value, but many many are left holding the bag (that's why they call it that), they were relatively small ones but I admit to be left holding some bags from the previous precious metals bubble of 1980, stocks in 1987, real estate in 1994, stocks again in 2001, stocks, metals, and real estate in 2009, and damn it, metals again in 2012-2013. All of them, Bought low, sold some for profits/rebalancing on the way up (too early, generally) held the rest too long after the peak was past, and bought more on the way down (buying opportunity!) that I was stuck with for a while until I either gave up and sold for a loss or waited a long long time for it to finally come back.
I don't think metals are going all the way to the bottom again because the mean line is still pretty strong, but it sure looks like it's pointing to 1150 gold and 17 silver
(remember when Jane Wells from CNBC went to the coin show on air in 2011 and showed all the shiny bullion selling at all time record highs? if not a clear sell signal, it was a "get ready to sell" signal because it's been pretty much downhill since then
oh well. .. .. so... what assets are in the steath/early awareness phase right about now? wouldn't mind putting a few eggs in a new basket before the media attention/enthusiasm phase gets a hold of it.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Seems like I always strap myself on for the ride in the Bull Trap......
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
$5 silver and $300 gold are just around the corner.
I sense that you haven't capitulated. Hurry up and sell, willya?
Seriously - if price were the only consideration and if I were playing with the big boys, I probably would have sold some metals awhile ago. But it's not, I don't, and I didn't.
I knew it would happen.
A picture is worth a thousand words, but when the picture is of an altered non factual appearance, the words emanating form such distortions are also disorientated and unreliable.
This is nothing more than round two of modern economic policy failure. Repeal of Glass Stegall started it, FOMC mis-management is continuing it. Stackers need to understand that virtually no asset escapes a dash to cash. And once again when cooler minds prevail cash will be seen for risk that it is.
A quick review of how various assets responded the last time, both downward and then upward, is in order. I expect metals to lead the pack once again.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>That's just another logarithmic exaggerated look. Give us a true linear chart to look at, and it appears truly different.
A picture is worth a thousand words, but when the picture is of an altered non factual appearance, the words emanating form such distortions are also disorientated and unreliable. >>
Neither of these are log charts. Nothing is altered.
if price were the only consideration and if I were playing with the big boys, I probably would have sold some metals awhile ago. But it's not, I don't, and I didn't.
Emotion responses net similar results. This is why the 2 charts are almost identical.
No
Dont pursue a job as a market technician.
Looks like we'll get our $300 gold during the despair phase! YeeHaa!
I think $300 is unlikely. Even a 70% correction--a normal bubble burst--is probably extreme due to the long depressed nature of gold for 2 decades. I've been looking for 1150-1250 and for all intents purpose, we are there. I would not rule out a quick visit to $1000, but that price level would be very temporary.
COMEX will be vaporized before you ever get there, sorry.
COMEX will be in existence long after we are not.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So is this..