What drives the unopened market?
Beck6
Posts: 1,038 ✭✭✭
I have been thinking about this lately. What causes the prices of unopened to go up and why do people collect it? Do they anticipate opening it someday, so the prospects of PSA 10's or high grade stars lead to an increase in value? Or... Do they collect for the scarcity of unopened product alone and never intend on opening it up?
Registry Sets:
T222's PSA 1 or better
T222's PSA 1 or better
0
Comments
ALL MY PSA SETS
While I can respect those that hoard boxes and boxes of recent issues, I prefer to have a pack of each year issued. While some lament the increasing scarcity of '78 Topps boxes, they do exist and can be found. You would be hard pressed to find a '58 or '56 pack more than once every few years, if that. So the search can be a big part of the appeal, not merely the acquisition.
And no, I have no intention of opening anything- why turn a $5-$15k pack into $100 worth of commons, unless you're redoing Brewsters Millions?
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
<< <i> why turn a $5-$15k pack into $100 worth of commons, unless you're redoing Brewsters Millions? >>
And for this very reason is why I feel the unopened market is grossly overhyped and overpriced.
<< <i>corncobb: the value is in the fact that those 5-15k unopened packs are scarce in and of themselves, the fact that they are probably fully of commons is irrelevant really. >>
+1
See the pack/wax box display thread and maybe it will be a bit clearer. There really ARE unopened collectors!
Buying unopened to rip and enjoy the experience of recapturing your lost youth (or travel "back in time" to before
you were born) is also one of the reasons people buy unopened product.
And then there are those who buy to rip and pull the elusive PSA 10 superstar or low pop. The odds aren't so good,
but they ain't so great in Vegas either.
To each his own. The bottom line is that there is only "so much" unopened left over from each year, and the more that
gets purchased and ripped the less that remains. That increases the scarcity and therefore the price over time tends to
increase as long as demand stays level or increases. It's basic microeconomics.
Dave
<< <i>For me it's a combo of things- scarcity, thrill of the hunt, display appeal, graphics and how indicative of the era they were.
While I can respect those that hoard boxes and boxes of recent issues, I prefer to have a pack of each year issued. While some lament the increasing scarcity of '78 Topps boxes, they do exist and can be found. You would be hard pressed to find a '58 or '56 pack more than once every few years, if that. So the search can be a big part of the appeal, not merely the acquisition.
And no, I have no intention of opening anything- why turn a $5-$15k pack into $100 worth of commons, unless you're redoing Brewsters Millions? >>
I agree completely with this. At least for me I was always driven by the rarity of the pack and I didn't care what series or who could be in the pack. I just wanted all of the different wrapper varieties if they changed for each series.
Jim
60's OPC packs
72 BB, 60's FB, 71FB, 73FB, 74FB, 75FB, 76FB, 78FB Rack Packs
72 and earlier BB cello
Though I open few rare packs, I can sympathize with the thrill of opening an old pack of cards. Opening 1976 wax packs takes me back to my early days of collecting when I would go to the candy store at the end of my block whenever they got another shipment of Topps packs. There's something to be said for the nostalgia of that.
Some people think spending lots of money for old cardboard pictures of men is foolish too. To each their own.
Ask this guy
Nostalgia, smell and feel of new/old cards. Taking us back to our childhood.
Barry
To be honest, no direction, but...
1966-69 Topps EX+
1975 minis NrMt Kelloggs PSA 9
All Topps Heritage-Master Sets
I can see value in racks and cellos with stars showing, but the odds on pulling a mint card with any value out of a wax pack are not good. However, since there are people that collect unopened and don't rip, there will be a demand, and the supply diminishes as the "rippers" deplete the available product.
To each their own, have fun collecting.
Joe
<< <i>corncobb: the value is in the fact that those 5-15k unopened packs are scarce in and of themselves, the fact that they are probably fully of commons is irrelevant really. >>
yeppers
I like packs more than cards. The wax, the feel, the designs, everything. So if people rip all the 70s packs to shreds and I need to pony up for a pack I want because supply is gone, so be it. The value of the cards becomes irrelevant at a certain point.
I think there are a few factors in play.
-Thrill of the hunt/never seen it before. This can be very exciting for the hobby. I remember when there was a small find of 53 Topps nickel packs, maybe 8-10 years ago.
Before that, there had only been a few known. Now the market was "wide open", quote. Similar with 57/58 Topps basketball. I don't think those existed before a small find was made. The contents inside are kind of negligible here. You're really buying newness.
-The value of simply an old collectible in the 50's. Penny packs from the 50's or 60's sell for much more than the card content, or what the wrapper is worth. There's kind of an "x factor". Where just the value of something that old is worth $150-200 unopened. Penny packs don't have the upside of nickel or cellos or racks, (probably because less are opened, if any) but I don't think they'll collapse.
-Simple supply and demand. Demand has at least stayed flat or gone up for most 50's and 60's cards. Supply seems to always be flat or down. Thus, prices are up.
Why people collect it? I think its a fun niche. It's relatively small. You can pick years you like. The wrappers are colorful, fun on their own. Good nostalgia.
<< <i>As a player collector, I don't see any reason unopened wax is worth much. >>
+1
Cards are made to be viewed and appreciated.
Rip early, rip often. Leave no pack unopened.
DaveB in St.Louis
<< <i>
<< <i>As a player collector, I don't see any reason unopened wax is worth much. >>
+1
Cards are made to be viewed and appreciated.
Rip early, rip often. Leave no pack unopened. >>
Cards WERE made to be viewed and opened, just as 90% silver quarters WERE made to be spent in 1964.
That 1975 Topps Baseball Wax Pack was $0.25 when I was a kid. Now it's more than a quarter. I wouldn't go and spend silver quarters (still worth more than face even with silver around $20/ounce), and ripping certain obsolete wax would require me to make a conscious decision.
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>
<< <i>As a player collector, I don't see any reason unopened wax is worth much. >>
Cards are made to be viewed and appreciated. >>
By little boys.
It appears their is more demand than supply.
Dave
+ten million ten million ten million on the Brewster's Millions reference.
<< <i>apparently, some here feel that poofing threads related to concerns in the market is a great way to keep it going. I'm sure that'll end just peachy.
+ten million ten million ten million on the Brewster's Millions reference. >>
Perhaps if some people here didn't act with so little intelligence these threads you speak of would still exist. The rules are clearly stated at the top of every forum. In my short time here I've been amazed by how many people disregard these rules completely, and then complain about the consequences.
TF
When I started to collect in the 80s it was because I was drawn to the allure of unopened packs with stars on top. I found it amazing that cellos and racks--and to a lesser extent wax packs--could still exist -- in some cases 30+ years after original issue--with HOFers like Brett, Jackson, Aaron, Carlton, Clemente, Seaver, and of course my boyhood idol--Yaz on top. Like many of us I had collected as a boy and fell in love with the game--and the Red Sox and Yaz.
I heard about SCD from a friend and from there began buying from a variety of dealers in the late 80s and early 90s. You cannot believe the deals that could be had. Not many people in that time period really wanted unopened packs if you can believe it. I won many many cellos, wax, and rack packs at prices that by today's standards would be robbery. Packs and cellos with stars on top and in different series selling for $150. '61 Fleer basketball wax packs with stars on top going for $400. If you had $$, you could get whatever you wanted. Prices for all of the stuff have risen far beyond what I ever expected. Besides--I really did not start to collect for "investment purposes".
Things started to change when the internet boom arrived. Now everyone had access to different venues where people were selling--and then eBay arrived. Chat boards--IMO--were a big reason why many of you -- I surmise -- started hearing about unopened and about wax, cellos and racks. There was a chat board on eBay for wax packs (how many of you subscribed?) in the what the late 90s?? where a bunch of us were active in trading selling and discussing vintage unopened.
How many of you remember jerseyfive? What a collection. Jersey sold in 2007 or so thinking that the unopened market was about to fall out. He had well over 350 vintage packs. Probably got nearly $200,000 for it I am guessing. A very knowledgeable unopened expert. Today? he would have gotten far more!!
People started to see appreciation in the value of their packs--and those who had been buying started to buy more. Then there was more competition to get the packs that you wanted and that of course led to higher prices. Damn internet!!
Yes Registry sets have led to many packs being opened to get cards graded. But IMO not many would open vintage wax or cellos for grading purposes. Really only racks and wax boxes--and even then you can only go back so far ('75??) before busting a box or rack would be disaterous for grading purposes due to high cost to obtain.
What's driving the market now? Still all of the above....and the scarcity--perceived or not--of vintage unopened product. What's vintage unopened -to me ? pre-80.
Clearly this board has led to an explosion on the unopened market. The past 2 years really. Many more people have jumped in and started to collect--and in the process wiped out BBCE and put a serious dent in what's left of the pre-80s unopened market.
I still collect for the love of the packs. Ironically, I shifted my focus to registry sets after the explosion. I still buy unopned, but a box here and there. Not many packs anymore. Though I do buy those things that I feel still have "growth". For perspective purposes--I have opened less than 15 vintage packs over the years.
Funny when jerseyfive left the hobby I had a discusion with him on the viability of the unopened market. He was certain it was gonna fall out and sold--investing his $$ I think--in real estate.
Being a smart guy I am sure he did well. But he would have done well holding onto his great collection too. There's still plenty of growth in the unopened market--IMO.
What's driving the unopened market today? A conductor--of a runaway train.
<< <i>I figured that I would finally weigh in on this topic since I have been collecting unopened material since the mid to late 80s. And I think a little history--at least from my perspective--is helpful to the OP's questions.
When I started to collect in the 80s it was because I was drawn to the allure of unopened packs with stars on top. I found it amazing that cellos and racks--and to a lesser extent wax packs--could still exist -- in some cases 30+ years after original issue--with HOFers like Brett, Jackson, Aaron, Carlton, Clemente, Seaver, and of course my boyhood idol--Yaz on top. Like many of us I had collected as a boy and fell in love with the game--and the Red Sox and Yaz.
I heard about SCD from a friend and from there began buying from a variety of dealers in the late 80s and early 90s. You cannot believe the deals that could be had. Not many people in that time period really wanted unopened packs if you can believe it. I won many many cellos, wax, and rack packs at prices that by today's standards would be robbery. Packs and cellos with stars on top and in different series selling for $150. '61 Fleer basketball wax packs with stars on top going for $400. If you had $$, you could get whatever you wanted. Prices for all of the stuff have risen far beyond what I ever expected. Besides--I really did not start to collect for "investment purposes".
Things started to change when the internet boom arrived. Now everyone had access to different venues where people were selling--and then eBay arrived. Chat boards--IMO--were a big reason why many of you -- I surmise -- started hearing about unopened and about wax, cellos and racks. There was a chat board on eBay for wax packs (how many of you subscribed?) in the what the late 90s?? where a bunch of us were active in trading selling and discussing vintage unopened.
How many of you remember jerseyfive? What a collection. Jersey sold in 2007 or so thinking that the unopened market was about to fall out. He had well over 350 vintage packs. Probably got nearly $200,000 for it I am guessing. A very knowledgeable unopened expert. Today? he would have gotten far more!!
People started to see appreciation in the value of their packs--and those who had been buying started to buy more. Then there was more competition to get the packs that you wanted and that of course led to higher prices. Damn internet!!
Yes Registry sets have led to many packs being opened to get cards graded. But IMO not many would open vintage wax or cellos for grading purposes. Really only racks and wax boxes--and even then you can only go back so far ('75??) before busting a box or rack would be disaterous for grading purposes due to high cost to obtain.
What's driving the market now? Still all of the above....and the scarcity--perceived or not--of vintage unopened product. What's vintage unopened -to me ? pre-80.
Clearly this board has led to an explosion on the unopened market. The past 2 years really. Many more people have jumped in and started to collect--and in the process wiped out BBCE and put a serious dent in what's left of the pre-80s unopened market.
I still collect for the love of the packs. Ironically, I shifted my focus to registry sets after the explosion. I still buy unopned, but a box here and there. Not many packs anymore. Though I do buy those things that I feel still have "growth". For perspective purposes--I have opened less than 15 vintage packs over the years.
Funny when jerseyfive left the hobby I had a discusion with him on the viability of the unopened market. He was certain it was gonna fall out and sold--investing his $$ I think--in real estate.
Being a smart guy I am sure he did well. But he would have done well holding onto his great collection too. There's still plenty of growth in the unopened market--IMO.
What's driving the unopened market today? A conductor--of a runaway train. >>
Well explained Manny. If I might add, I don't believe that this niche of the hobby was nearly as popular 25 years ago as it is today. As it has been stated many times previously, an ever increasing number of collectors chasing a continuously dwindling supply can only lead to shortages and higher prices. It's not rocket science.
It was kind of a roll of the dice. You had some dealers that were experts (like Mark Murphy). But there were many packs sandwiched into different auctions or lots. You didn't have much information to go on. Little black and white photos in magazines. No feedback (like on ebay).
The market was also hurt in the 90's with so many memorabilia fakes. It probably drove away people who could have bought cards (and maybe eventually packs).
<< <i>I think one of the reasons why it was so small 25 years ago, authenticity. >>
There is absolutely no argument about that. That is certainly one reason some people turned to collecting unopened. Another argument can be made for the disillusionment experienced by collectors of modern cards by the explosion in quantity of types of sets, special inserts, and huge production numbers that occurred in the 90's. Some collectors sought other venues to satisfy their desire to collect and unopened was still available in sufficient amount to meet the demand. I'm sure others can name various other reasons (increased discretionary income, recapturing their first experience, etc.) that helped grow the number of unopened collectors.
Regardless of what put collectors in the unopened market, there is no denying that those that collect this niche area have grown dramatically. This growth has increased demand and put a squeeze on the amount of available product. Only the huge production runs from the mid-80's on will keep that area of unopened collecting in check as I doubt that demand can ever out-strip supply ( I don't think even Doug M. knows the half-life of '88 Donruss!).
As another example, anyone who has searched ebay over the years for unopened product will remember the seller who had a sealed case of 1981 and 1982 Topps baseball wax listed on ebay with the photo of the case sitting on his patio table in front of his swimming pool. They went unsold on ebay for countless years.
This took a large chunk of quantity of dead cases off the market. I personally think quite a bit.
I'm not saying post '87 has investment value, as there is sufficient availability out there now at various pricing, but today's quantity is much lesser than 10 years ago. But saying its thousands and not tens of thousands may still keep it affordable for some time.
As for pre '87, I'm not convinced there are large quantities of anything out there. As people cash in, there are 10 more people looking to buy. So demand will always be there.