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2014 Krause
cladking
Posts: 28,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
Fortunately the world has been put back together and it appears all the countries
are here. As far as moderns go there's not much new. If you collect Indian you'll
have to buy it since all pricing here has been stood on its head. It appears the new
pricing is based in reality since it reflects the actual difficulty of finding the coins in my
experience. All the prices are sharply higher but my only problem is the one Rupee
issues, which I find tough, (before 1982) are priced about the same as other denom-
inations. I'm just very favorably impressed by the effort that apparently went into
this.
It's not too late to start collecting India but you'll have to stop buying them randomly
or you might get badly burned at the new pricing. Some Indian coins are hoarde coins
and these simply will never bring more than a dollar or two to real collectors. Most of
the prices are only several dollars now and this won't strain too many pocketbooks.
The old proof sets are up significantly again with the big gainer being the 1961 that
went from $100 to $4500. The prices of the oldest Indian moderns also had nice gains.
Otherwise I just don't see much change yet. I'll be checking the silver an older issues
as time goes by but there seem to be generally few changes.
Fortunately the world has been put back together and it appears all the countries
are here. As far as moderns go there's not much new. If you collect Indian you'll
have to buy it since all pricing here has been stood on its head. It appears the new
pricing is based in reality since it reflects the actual difficulty of finding the coins in my
experience. All the prices are sharply higher but my only problem is the one Rupee
issues, which I find tough, (before 1982) are priced about the same as other denom-
inations. I'm just very favorably impressed by the effort that apparently went into
this.
It's not too late to start collecting India but you'll have to stop buying them randomly
or you might get badly burned at the new pricing. Some Indian coins are hoarde coins
and these simply will never bring more than a dollar or two to real collectors. Most of
the prices are only several dollars now and this won't strain too many pocketbooks.
The old proof sets are up significantly again with the big gainer being the 1961 that
went from $100 to $4500. The prices of the oldest Indian moderns also had nice gains.
Otherwise I just don't see much change yet. I'll be checking the silver an older issues
as time goes by but there seem to be generally few changes.
Tempus fugit.
0
Comments
Of course I'm glad that Spain, Panama and other countries are back, making it once again worthwhile to purchase the new volume.
Dennis
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king of the increases this year was actually the 1962 7 pc mint set which
went from $11 to $4000 for a tidy little 36,300% profit. That's almost as
good as being a banker now days.
<< <i>It appears the new pricing is based in reality since it reflects the actual difficulty of finding the coins >>
Many nations have low-mintage coins and FDC sets that are hard to find. Price isn't governed solely by scarcity, especially on the darkside. The question is, "What event prompted this market increase?"
Were the coins recalled and/or melted? Have they always been this hard to find, or only in recent times? Who was buying these sets in 1961 and 1962?
As always, it's worth only what someone is willing to pay.
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<< <i>
<< <i>It appears the new pricing is based in reality since it reflects the actual difficulty of finding the coins >>
Many nations have low-mintage coins and FDC sets that are hard to find. Price isn't governed solely by scarcity, especially on the darkside. The question is, "What event prompted this market increase?"
Were the coins recalled and/or melted? Have they always been this hard to find, or only in recent times? Who was buying these sets in 1961 and 1962?
As always, it's worth only what someone is willing to pay. >>
I've told people for decades that many modernsare nearly impossible to find. Of course this
rarity has no effect on price because demand is nearly non-existent for nearly all modern coins.
But time has always been on the side of these coins because the only reason there was no demand
is that coin collectors hate base metal and they hate modern. Over time the collector base changes
and the new base has no reason to hate the coins. People collect coins for numerous reasons like art,
history a scarcity but also for nostalgia and these last two apply to moderns as surely as any other
coins. Indeed, to collectors, the first two apply as well.
In the past most people who collected almost any country's coins resided in the US and US collectors
are a fairly homogenous group in many ways. But most of this new demand is not coming from US
collectors who hate moderns but from the exploding middle class in India. These are young people
and older people who grew up with these coins and their young nation. Most of the older collectors
couldn't even afford to set aside a nice new Rupee when the were younger but they want one now and
they can't find them or at least not at the old prices. People need to realize that this demand is still
in its infancy perhaps. It's not as though there is a huge collector base as for older coins it's just that
the tiny demand is finding no supply.
In most countries old beaten and worn moderns are much more readily available. This isn't hurting the
value of pristine specimens in those countries but India is a little different because everyone competed
to destyroy the old coins in India as they were demonetized. They were used by small industry to make
things like razor blades and consumer products. This means that even in XF and VF many of these coins
will prove elusive. Only the very low grades taken home by tourists and those that literally come out of
the woodwork, dumps, and the like as well as those taken homeby tourists will be availablle. These all
have horrendous attrition because they are considered common and they are mostly base metal. If lots
of people want to "jump on the band wagon" then there won't be lots of low cost alternatives.
It's possible there's some speculation involved but we're talking about things with tiny mintages and high
attrition so it doesn't require speculation to affect pricing. The availability of the extremely high mintage
items appears little better.
I believe this is really a sea change and it's been spreading from country to country for a long time now.
It's barely started and will necessarily engulf the entire world over the next couple decades because even
countries whose economies don't take off will be affected by demand from world coin collectors where now
there are no collectors at all. Indian collectors will exert pressure on other SE Asian coins as they mature
and branch out. Collectors in India, China, Russia, Brazil, Australia will exert pressure on the pricing of all
countries. These collectors will have different beliefs and perspectives than most US collectors.
Of course, there's no certainty that any given coin will ever attract much demand. Just because a coin is
very low mintage willnot assure that the demand will materialize to push it far higher. I do believe though
that most if not all circulating issues will attract demand. To a large extent this demand will be proportional
to the lenght of time it was used and how widely used it was. The demand will depend on numerous impon-
derables. Many of the coins that do the best will have enormous mintages and very poor survival rates just
like many of the Indian issues.
I can't imagine paying more than $4,000 for a 7-pc mint set which doesn't contain any gold or rare varieties, but we shall see! (you mentioned the prices may continue to climb)
Re: SE Asian countries, I have already seen this in coins from Vietnam and Cambodia. They are hard to come by, and certain 'run of the mill' circulation types are selling for ~ $1,000 in MS. They appear for sale often enough, but not for cheap.
Amat Colligendo Focum
Top 10 • FOR SALE
<< <i>
I can't imagine paying more than $4,000 for a 7-pc mint set which doesn't contain any gold or rare varieties, but we shall see! (you mentioned the prices may continue to climb)
Re: SE Asian countries, I have already seen this in coins from Vietnam and Cambodia. They are hard to come by, and certain 'run of the mill' circulation types are selling for ~ $1,000 in MS. They appear for sale often enough, but not for cheap. >>
I don't believe there is any reason at all that in time the demand for base metal
modern coins can't approach the demand for older silver and gold coins. For this
to happen the prices of modern India will have to increase substantially.
and people had to spend what they had. Circulated examples are around but uncirculated
are getting more expensive.
Steve
Amat Colligendo Focum
Top 10 • FOR SALE
<< <i>I think my Krause is a 2002, need a new one, but is there much increase on Mexico say 1948 to date stuff?
>>
Not much updating in '48 to date Mexico since '02.
You might want to get a 2013 Krause cheap but the 2014 won't help.
Hoard the keys.
<< <i>How does the Chinese stuff look? Down or up?
It's so hard to check since they move the coins around so much but Taiwan has
reappeared and there are no changes in any of tbe base metal moderns. I don't
see any in the silver and gold in a quick spot check.
I haven't looked at the older coins yet but could spot check them.
nd(1911) 50C Y-257.2 LM-422 4 Circles Yunnan
nd(1911) 50C Y-257 LM-422 K-170 2 Circles Yunnan
Hoard the keys.
I don't know why I picked 1948 out of a hat, I should have said 20th century Mexico
mainly the Modern Commemoratives 5 & 10 pesos, such as the 10 peso 1957 Constitution
A 2013 is a good Idea, I love saving money,
Again Thanx Guys.
Steve
<< <i>Thanx Lochness & Cladking,
I don't know why I picked 1948 out of a hat, I should have said 20th century Mexico
mainly the Modern Commemoratives 5 & 10 pesos, such as the 10 peso 1957 Constitution
A 2013 is a good Idea, I love saving money,
Again Thanx Guys.
>>
They actually decreased the prices of a few of these a little. It appears to be primarily bullion based changes.