Turning a Profit on Junk Wax

JHS5120

Hello everyone!

After reading some comments regarding late 80's/early 90's junk wax I started to wonder; is it possible to turn a profit on ripping and submitting junk wax? I believe there is money to be made (obviously 4SC is doing something right), but to me, it is a matter of time and the amount of it needed to make a worthwhile profit. I grabbed a piece of paper and began figuring out some general estimates. They are only estimates! I am sure I am off on some of my assertions and I will never be able to factor in "luck" (or lack thereof).


Here is what I wrote:

You spend $1500 on 30 3-box rack cases ($50 a case, various years, all Topps). You spend 5 hours researching which years, searching for prices and receiving said cases.

You open all 30 cases to find 1200 "submit-worthy cards".. I guessed around 40 cards per case (or about 13 per box) I could be completely off, I'm sure some have had better luck, but I'm assuming you are only submitting stars/low pop commons.

Each pack takes you 3 minutes to open (carefully), remove the contents, inspect each card and package the "submit-worthy cards". This comes out to 108 hours. Some may think this is ridiculous, but I have opened a couple 1986 rack cases before and IIRC I spent around an entire evening opening, sorting, reviewing (reviewing again) and narrowing down the contents. I never sent any cards to PSA lol.

You spend 3 hours doing a second review of the cards that you have (less than 10 seconds a card).

You call PSA and they offer you $4.5 a card (45 day turnaround) submission fees. So you spend another $5400 ($5700 with shipping both ways and supplies). It takes you 5 hours to fill out the submission form, double check everything and package the box and you send out the cards.

After 3 months you get poppage!

800 out of the 1200 cards are graded PSA 10, 300 PSA 9 and 100 are PSA 8, MINSIZE or EOT (for the purpose of this they have no value). I have no idea if this is a correct ratio, but from my experience, it should be a decent estimate.

You get a MASSIVE package in the mail. You spend 4 hours opening and organizing everything and you spend another 9 hours scanning everything (less than 30 seconds a card).

You decide to list everything at once (for the sake of this scenario) and everything is listed as a BIN. You spend $120 in listing fees/store fees a month (I checked the eBay fee illustrator) and you spend 35 hours (or less than 2 minutes per) listing these 1100 cards (the PSA 10's and 9's).

You sell 50 cards a month. It takes you 22 months to sell everything. The average price for the 10's is $20 (after fess) and for the 9's $7 (after fees). This comes out to $16.45 per card average. When sold, it takes you 5 minutes to find, package and ship each card once sold. Another 90 hours (rounded down).



So, when it's all said and done here are your results:

You spend:
$1500 on the cards
$5700 on the fees/supplies
$1500 in listing fees (including the 22 months' worth of store fees)
A TOTAL OF: $8,700

You make:
PSA 10's $16,000
PSA 9's $2,100
A TOTAL OF: $18,100

TOTAL: $9,400 (not bad)

TOTAL HOURS SPENT: 259 hours, or, $36.29 per hour.. Roughly.


Buying the cards, ripping the cards and listing the cards will take you 4 or 5 months (If you have a life, probably 5). As mentioned above, it takes you 22 months to sell everything. With an average of selling 50 cards a month and $16.45 per card it'll take you roughly 14 months to recoup your upfront expenses.

So, if you have the time and the money and the determination, you can make some money on this. I personally do not, and I am sure most of you are the same.

grote15

You make some very valid points and are spot on for the person who views opening packs and sorting cards, etc, as sheer work. But many here actually enjoy that process or they'd look for a different hobby to begin with.

DetroitSquirreL

I wish I had boxes that I could open...I wish I had that kind of money to drop in the first place to try and turn a profit ....I guess I wish a lot

californiacards3

I have a similar experience with the 12,000 vending I bought in September. The only thing I think you over estimate is the number of 10's Maybe PSA is easier to 10 on more modern or as you say Junk Wax. Spot on for time. That is an awful lot of time in modern for $14-16 per card profit. I think you need to look at the demand side of the equation.

Look how many of these things sell and who collect modern even in PSA 10. I for one don't but someone might.

Interesting Question and always like people positing ways to make $$$$$

Regards

Barry

bziddy

I recently bought a bunch of 86-89T stuff and think that the # of 10s might be a bit overstated, but I have a small sample to work with (I'm not very far into the rip yet). I have 30 rack boxes, 20 wax boxes and 1 jumbo box/case to go through. I'll try and time myself to see how long it takes.

It's taking me about 2.5 - 3 minutes per rack to get cards either sorted into 100s piles *OR* in a penny sleeve and into the 'review later' pile.

thehallmark

I'm a hardcore collector of some pretty nasty high grade junk wax, so I am keenly aware of how to squeeze profits out of junk case breaks and such.

You need to factor in that if you are able to hit that many PSA 10s (which is debatable), you are going to raise the population of the key cards drastically so your hammer price is going to cascade downwards with each sale. A junk wax pop1 might fetch $50 but as a pop5 it might only sell for $12. As a pop10, it might not sell at all.

Bottom line is the time and effort and unseen aggravation you're going to encounter might ultimately not make this exercise worth it in the end. If you're going to do it, hopefully you have reasons that go beyond money. You're going to need to enjoy the journey at least a little bit.

JHS5120

<< <i>I'm a hardcore collector of some pretty nasty high grade junk wax, so I am keenly aware of how to squeeze profits out of junk case breaks and such.

You need to factor in that if you are able to hit that many PSA 10s (which is debatable), you are going to raise the population of the key cards drastically so your hammer price is going to cascade downwards with each sale. A junk wax pop1 might fetch $50 but as a pop5 it might only sell for $12. As a pop10, it might not sell at all.

Bottom line is the time and effort and unseen aggravation you're going to encounter might ultimately not make this exercise worth it in the end. If you're going to do it, hopefully you have reasons that go beyond money. You're going to need to enjoy the journey at least a little bit. >>



I have absolutely no intention of doing it - this was purely a hypothetical scenario. Something fun to think about. Besides, I work full time and I don't have a life as it is. I agree, while I could not find a measure for the adverse effect of demand, I kept the average card value down to $20, which should be pretty accurate when factoring in $50 pop 1's and $10 pop 8's. I'm starting to agree with everyone, 75% PSA 10's probably high. If someone has a few historical poppages which would apply to this scenario it would help!

Grote, I agree, ripping and submitting cards should hardly be classified as "work", but after a few days of ripping 1987 Topps, I am sure the process gets a little dull.

saucywombat

Thats a pretty good business plan. Pretty honest assessment of the "labor" of submitting cards.

The key would be the right product.

Also you are fast with the scanner.

digicat

Which Topps rack cases are you buying for $50 each?

bziddy

<< <i>Which Topps rack cases are you buying for $50 each? >>



87-89 can be had for $50/ea (or less) for a 3-box rack case.

WalterSobchak

Better hope you don't get a tough grader, because that could potentially crash and burn this plan in a big way.

If you were to try something like this, I wonder if breaking it into several subs to minimize the risk would be worth getting a lesser price break in fees from PSA.

Boopotts

<< <i>Better hope you don't get a tough grader, because that could potentially crash and burn this plan in a big way.

If you were to try something like this, I wonder if breaking it into several subs to minimize the risk would be worth getting a lesser price break in fees from PSA. >>



I believe outfits like 4SC have a few competitive advantages that are difficult to overcome, one of which being that they either a) don't have to pay grading fees for modern (post-1986, say) cards that don't grade a 10, or b) only have to pay a nominal kickback fee.

I don't think it's possible to profit from breaking junk wax (assuming you place a reasonable value on your time) if this proviso isn't in place.

bziddy

<< <i>
Great exercise in discovery though ... now if only Topps released their production numbers so we could do some real calculations. >>



This is easy. Let's say that each year 10% of the remaining stock of unopened product becomes opened. Then you just take the initial run and remove 10% and run that out for a few years to see where we are....

...only problem is if you remove 10% from infinity, you still have infinity cards out there to open.

zurbs17

I have no proof of this working myself but I know people who claim they can make a profit on junk wax without getting any cards graded. They sell team sets and key player cards for the ebay minimum of $1.

WalterSobchak

<< <i>I have no proof of this working myself but I know people who claim they can make a profit on junk wax without getting any cards graded. They sell team sets and key player cards for the ebay minimum of $1. >>


Jesus, would that ever be a grind. I like cards a lot more than most people do, and I'd rather stick my hand in a running garbage disposal.

zurbs17

<< <i>

<< <i>I have no proof of this working myself but I know people who claim they can make a profit on junk wax without getting any cards graded. They sell team sets and key player cards for the ebay minimum of $1. >>


Jesus, would that ever be a grind. I like cards a lot more than most people do, and I'd rather stick my hand in a running garbage disposal. >>



I'm sure most people agree which might be why it works for the few people that do it.

Dboneesq

<< <i>I have no proof of this working myself but I know people who claim they can make a profit on junk wax without getting any cards graded. They sell team sets and key player cards for the ebay minimum of $1. >>


He better hope that the same person buys multiple lots. If not, then he will be paying ~50% of his GROSS sales price to paypal and eBay.

mygotta

So if best case scenario is 40% return on PSA 10's, then out of 1500 cards, you would only get about 600 PSA 10's from that batch, at which case, $20 a card would eventually be a wash or a loss.

But supposing you did pull 1200 PSA 10's in that batch, and you ran every auction all at once with a starting bid at .99 cents, you could theoretically sell them all in 7 days rather than 22 months. Assuming they are advertised correctly, proper keywords, and solid stars and HOF'ers, they should get you more than the $4.50 you spent to get them graded. Add $3.00 shipping and you spend only $1.68 on shipping, so you could pull in another dollar on top of that. Expect the 9's and 8's to just being a little money to pay for the initial expense.

Star cards like Nolan Ryan would minimally get you close to $20 depending on the year and population.

It's a lofty possibility and you would have to be well versed in all of the said years. Even from 1987-1990 would be an interesting experiment. 1986 would be more challenging as the case prices are higher and PSA 10's are more difficult.

But the remaining years through 1990 could be had for $50 each, thats only 4 years, so your investment could be near $200 (maybe $250).

JHS5120

<< <i>Interesting plan. IMO the card ripping and reviewing would take longer. Also for the results, at least as far as late '80s is concerned, people are averaging about 30-40% 10s. Here are stats I compiled a few weeks ago based on the pop reports for '80s:

[...]

I think to actually turn a profit on junk wax it'll take about 5-10 years plus of hoarding and waiting for that supply to eventually dry up. That said, you need to remember that not only were there a ton more cards produced during the '80s+, but also the quality was better, in general, in terms of stock and process. The pop reports clearly indicate this.

BTW, you also need to factor in the cost of supplies to your estimate, such as CardSaver 1s and BCW super vaults. Probably even would need a storage unit or some facility for handling all the inventory. >>



Good info!

I agree, a lot of the estimates need to be tweaked a bit. I disagree however that you need a storage unit, 1100 PSA graded cards shouldn't take up too much room and the remaining cards can be tossed since they are not used in the calculations. They probably have a $200-300 value.

Here are some adjustments that could be made:

Add 15 hours to the ripping - 3 minutes per pack is a bit ambitious.
Add 10 hours of research - Between checking pop reports for low pop commons and VCP for higher priced cards.
Add $200 for CardSaver 1's

As for the amount of PSA 10's. I admit, I was rather generous. Below is a chart of the various grading results and the effect of those results on the overall calculation:



As you can see, unless you get the grade of death there is some room to wiggle with.

JHS5120

As for 4SC, I'm sure they have some sort of deal with PSA, but regardless, they have a decent business model it seems.

Dpeck100

Nice work on your part!

I think a better strategy would be to find a high school or college aged person and pay them $10 an hour to do the bulk of the work for you.

This is way too hard of work for a chance to make $36 an hour.

bziddy

<< <i>Nice work on your part!

I think a better strategy would be to find a high school or college aged person and pay them $10 an hour to do the bulk of the work for you.

This is way too hard of work for a chance to make $36 an hour. >>



Yes, it is.

However, 84-87 is right in my wheelhouse as far as "remembering the excitement as a kid." So if I get to open cards (which I'm going to do anyhow), for cheap (6-box rack case of 87 for $100, or 6 box jumbo of 2013 for $550), AND have the possibility to make $2/hr while I'm having fun -- sounds like a good time to me.

digicat

Sorting and pre-grading 100,000 1987-1989 Topps cards sounds like punishment.

CubsKiller99

I would get someone to do the ripping for me and set aside potential submissions.
That would strictly be a list of cards that MIGHT be submittable. Then I'd eyeball
this much smaller pool of cards (somewhere around 10% of the original lot) for the
the cards that have a decent chance to be submitted and this can be done VERY quickly.
Then the final selection step which takes much more time per card.

Typically from a wax case of 11,000 cards I save about 1,000 initially, quickly cut that down to 125
to seriously look at, and might find 20-25 to submit. So I'm really spending little significant
time if I can get to that 100-150 cards and that's a task that a teenager could do.

All of this would essentially cut down on the labor cost. It's probably what 4SC is doing.
You could do 20 cases per week this way if you didn't have a full-time job other than
dealing cards.

halfcentman

If I did not have a full-time job, I would be ripping right there with you until the cows came home.

I cannot tell you how many rack and vending boxes of 1987 Topps I broke up - probably enough to make about 500 of each player. But that was in 1987.

MiniDuff

I am a career banker who worked his way up to CEO. I am also a lifelong card collector who got the registry bug and actively traded 75 minis for years. Over time, my grading eye has gotten better and this exact thought crossed my mind more than once, but only as a dream as I never had free time at all. Well, things change. My Board turned over and wanted their own CEO, so I got a lot of free time with the resources to play a bit and did exactly that.

In short, this concept can and does work. It can also be a nightmare. It takes a LOT of time, patience, discipline and a very good eye. It also takes a fair amount of luck. Luck that the case you break has psa 10 Nolan ryans instead of ryan thompsons. Luck that the grader you get
isn't stingy with 10s. Over time it is legitimately possible to average over 50% 10s on this stuff, but that means cracking an 81 fleer case and submitting 13 cards (ouch, yes this happened). On this magnitude, it only takes one order where you get more 9s than 10s to really hurt you. Not just in the gross number, but in the liquidity too. 9s don't sell, unless you give them away (with a few exceptions).

The biggest barrier you have is as previously mentioned: 4sc. They have a big advantage over you in grading, both in price and process. Then when you do hit your 10s, you aren't going to get more than they are for theirs, so even though your cost structure is much higher, your sales are not. Nothing like hitting a couple Ryan PSA 10s, seeing someone asking 100 per for them on ebay, then scrolling 20 items down and seeing 4sc selling the same card for 22.99. Now you can sell yours for 21.99 or wait for theirs to clear and hope the price rebounds. Ick.

Then of course there is the day you buy an 84 fleer vending case from bbce for $460 (long gone now) and hit 13 out of 17 Mattinglys as PSA 10s.. that was a pretty good day too :-)

thunderdan

That is definitely 9K earned the hard way.

mygotta

You would need a job or some sort of income to make the investment. A $5600 investment for junk wax is not to be taken as just fun. You better hope you are getting well centered and sharp cards.

A 6-box case of jumbo 2013 for $550 sounds fun too, but most people are seeking to get that one super rare 1/1 auto that pays for the case itself. But in the even that does not happen, you can perhaps bank on some short prints. I would guess you have nearly 80% chance of getting many of those in a PSA 10 grade. Yet, who is paying $20 for a PSA 10 Miguel Cabrera base card? Right now its the Harpers, Trouts and other cards that will earn the money back, but not sure if there is enough to warrant getting all of these graded. Even making a master set would not pull the initial investment. Again, its the big pulls that will get the return on that case. Unless I am overlooking something on this.

japhi

<< <i>Sorting and pre-grading 100,000 1987-1989 Topps cards sounds like punishment. >>



I opened 6 boxes of 89 donruss and wanted to kill myself. Knowing that the cards are worthless killed the moment for me.

gregmo32

G.O.D. is the biggest factor in this process, and there is no predicting if you will get him (or her) or not.

Beck6

I have had better luck with factory sets and you could buy a whole case of those for about the same price. It cuts down your opening and sorting big time as you know where the star cards are in the set. Donruss doesn't work because they package them like cello packs, but score and fleer have worked well for me in the past.

CubsKiller99

<< <i>I have had better luck with factory sets and you could buy a whole case of those for about the same price. It cuts down your opening and sorting big time as you know where the star cards are in the set. Donruss doesn't work because they package them like cello packs, but score and fleer have worked well for me in the past. >>



I've been hesitant to do that. What is the collation process for sets like for 1987-91 Topps, are you likely
to do as well condition-wise as rack packs? Shooting for PSA 10 here so even small flaws are deadly.

gemint

<< <i>Sorting and pre-grading 100,000 1987-1989 Topps cards sounds like punishment. >>



A baseball card collecting purgatory if you will.

savoyspecial

Pay any taxes on these gains?

JHS5120

<< <i>Pay any taxes on these gains? >>



Always.

JHS5120

On a side note..

With this information, could it be argued that rack cases are undervalued? I'm thinking they might me.

gameusedhoop

I'd rather let you do all the work and buy the lot already graded at a "fire sale" price, when you need the $$ or you're sick of looking at them. $1-$2 for a graded card (9 or 10 depending on the year) is a DEAL in my book. No sorting, no fees, very little downside as the risk has mostly been removed. At that price I can always get my $$ back quickly if necessary.

tmgrnzx9r

<< <i>Which Topps rack cases are you buying for $50 each? >>



I know this is not a rack case, but I recently picked up a sealed vending case at a show for $29.00 for 88 Topps baseball.

mygotta

<< <i>

<< <i>Which Topps rack cases are you buying for $50 each? >>



I know this is not a rack case, but I recently picked up a sealed vending case at a show for $29.00 for 88 Topps baseball. >>



You can get an 89 3-box rack for $50. I think 87 is around $60. 1990 seems harder to pick up at the moment. None on eBay at least. 1986 is around $100. I dont know what 91 or 92 go for. Or any of the other companies outside of Topps.

jessherron

Seems to me that the key to the whole equation is the PSA 10 percentage. The cash outlay for the cards themselves is far less than the grading fees. Youd be much better off to submit 600 cards rather than 1200 if it contained the 400 that would make a grade 10. Obviously easier said than done -- but you get my point.

thenavarro

<< <i>That is definitely 9K earned the hard way. >>



+1

Unless it's a labor of love, that's way too many hours and way too much of a drawn out timeframe and hassle for 9k

esebille

<< <i>Interesting plan. IMO the card ripping and reviewing would take longer. Also for the results, at least as far as late '80s is concerned, people are averaging about 30-40% 10s. Here are stats I compiled a few weeks ago based on the pop reports for '80s:


1980
Subs: 68,843
PSA 10s: 10,494
%: 15.24
PSA 9s: 29,679
%: 43.11

1981
Subs: 45,853
PSA 10s: 7,399
%: 16.14
PSA 9s: 20,573
%: 44.87

1982
Subs: 57,024
PSA 10s: 7,884
%: 13.83
PSA 9s: 19,287
%: 33.82

1983
Subs: 71,333
PSA 10s: 13,084
%: 18.34
PSA 9s: 21,682
%: 30.40

1984
Subs: 33,930
PSA 10s: 8,790
%: 25.91
PSA 9s: 13,934
%: 41.07

1985
Subs: 93,089
PSA 10s: 6,836
%: 7.34
PSA 9s: 19,120
%: 20.54

1986
Subs: 18,346
PSA 10s: 6,302
%: 34.35
PSA 9s: 6,573
%: 35.83

1987
Subs: 38,705
PSA 10s: 6,608
%: 17.07
PSA 9s: 12,836
%: 33.16

1988
Subs: 8,910
PSA 10s: 3,470
%: 38.95
PSA 9s: 2,817
%: 31.62

1989
Subs: 15,072
PSA 10s: 4,957
%: 32.89
PSA 9s: 5,874
%: 38.97


I think to actually turn a profit on junk wax it'll take about 5-10 years plus of hoarding and waiting for that supply to eventually dry up. That said, you need to remember that not only were there a ton more cards produced during the '80s+, but also the quality was better, in general, in terms of stock and process. The pop reports clearly indicate this.

BTW, you also need to factor in the cost of supplies to your estimate, such as CardSaver 1s and BCW super vaults. Probably even would need a storage unit or some facility for handling all the inventory.

Great exercise in discovery though ... now if only Topps released their production numbers so we could do some real calculations. >>



Plus you could sell the wrappers and gum like some posters on ebay.

CDsNuts

I've done this and your numbers are way off:

1) You will never sniff 75% PSA 10s on stuff from the era you're looking at. 60% would be about the best you could consistently hope for post-1991 and 35% on pre-1992 Topps.

2) Consistently getting $20 after fees for PSA 10s? $10-15 each on ebay is the going rate for most 10s from that era if they will even sell. There are also very few high dollar 10s you can pull from the junk wax you're talking about, that ship sailed about 4 years ago. Low pop commons won't sell for more than $8-10 (if they sell at all) unless it's part of a highly contested registry team set (Tigers) and they need it. There are maybe a couple dozen cards per 1987-1993 Topps set that will consistently sell for $25+ in PSA 10. And many 'stars' won't sell at $10.

Lee

Boopotts

<< <i>I've done this and your numbers are way off:

1) You will never sniff 75% PSA 10s on stuff from the era you're looking at. 60% would be about the best you could consistently hope for post-1991 and 35% on pre-1992 Topps.

2) Consistently getting $20 after fees for PSA 10s? $10-15 each on ebay is the going rate for most 10s from that era if they will even sell. There are also very few high dollar 10s you can pull from the junk wax you're talking about, that ship sailed about 4 years ago. Low pop commons won't sell for more than $8-10 (if they sell at all) unless it's part of a highly contested registry team set (Tigers) and they need it. There are maybe a couple dozen cards per 1987-1993 Topps set that will consistently sell for $25+ in PSA 10. And many 'stars' won't sell at $10.

Lee >>



And a couple dozen from each 1987-93 set may be generous. My guess would be maybe--maybe-- 50 cards total from those years sell for $20 or more in PSA 10.

nam812

<< <i>........and 35% on pre-1992 Topps...... >>



One time I subbed two 1989 cards and got a PSA 10 on one of them, so you're a liar.

CubsKiller99

Well if anyone is going to start doing this they better buy their cases now.

Large-scale harvesting of 1980's cases has been underway for some time and supply
is starting to get noticeably lower.

BBCE, for example, has no 1987-91 Topps baseball rack boxes available. I said
boxes not cases --they have no rack or wax cases for those years.
You can still get the 3-box cases on eBAY but the 6-box are disappearing
at an alarming rate.

1980s Topps unopened cases are like the Amazon rain forest. Still out there
but disappearing steadily.

ReggieCleveland

I don't think most of the 80s stuff is drying up as much as it's being temporarily relocated. Investing in unopened seems to be the hot dotcom right now here on CU. I think people are jumping in and buying and tucking it away thinking they're going to ride a wave.

You can still find 86 Topps cases, and there's enough available 1987-1989 Topps cases to fill the Grand Canyon. I think it's important to specify what we're talking about because there's plenty of 80s stuff that is decades and decades away from "drying up."

mygotta

While I have my own stash of 80's unopened stuff, it is hardly an effort in hoarding or making any anticipation for future profits. I just enjoy the potential they may one day bring in opening them up. Otherwise they are a nice looking collection unto themselves.

LarkinCollector

<< <i>And a couple dozen from each 1987-93 set may be generous. My guess would be maybe--maybe-- 50 cards total from those years sell for $20 or more in PSA 10. >>


Just picking a random set in those years (one of my least fav)...

1989 Topps PSA10 Recent eBay sales (>$20) - Randy Johnson, Biggio, Puckett, Nolan Ryan, Rickey Henderson, Blyleven, Ripken, Smoltz (multiple sales above $20 on several of these) + Mattingly@$19.99

If Blyleven (a $0.10 card) can sell for over $20, there's probably quite a few others that could as well. I think 20-25 per year is probably currently reasonable. The biggest problem will still be the diminishing returns as the POPs grow.

You could probably also make a fair amount selling lots of some of the star cards not sent in for grading, error/variation singles, team sets, etc. that hasn't been factored into potential profit or effort.

bziddy

$90 dlvd 1987 6-box rack

ReggieCleveland

<< <i>$90 dlvd 1987 6-box rack >>



Two problems:

1.) Seller not double boxing the case for shipping

2.) It's in Chatsworth, CA