Is this right? 1981S MS66 SBA worth this much, why?

cosmicdebris

Subject says it all.

LINK

keithdagen

No MS-67's for the date, and a popular series.

Keith

niocrepus

That's a ridiculous price, the mintage is over 3 million -- what coin with a mintage of 3 million sells for $400?

Thousands more are out there waiting in mint sets. Anybody could go out and buy $100 worth of sets and be rich. I've got a nice shinny [sic] one right here that would grade MS70. No, I'm not going to submit it to PCGS and contribute to the deception.

Anybody that buys one at that price is loonier than my toothless Aunt Martha after a 4-day bender on homemade moonshine.

supercoin

Just trying to save the modern-bashers some time.

Basically Keith got it right.

Unlike the auction description says, though, they are easy to find with nice luster and few bagmarks, at least in the tradtional sense of bagmarks.

However, they are very difficult to find without nasty scrapes on the high-points like the hair. And they are often plagued with die wear, causing an indistinct "gritty" appearance.

I've only handled one that I thought had a shot at MS67. I periodically try to buy it back from the customer I sold it to.

DRG

Actually the 1981S SBA$ in MS66 is exceptionally difficult to find. I have searched at least 500 1981 mint sets and have graded 2 MS67 D's, 1 MS67 P, and no S's above MS64. It was a rotten year for SBA$'s particularily in San Fran. I have a standing offer of $10k for the first 1981 S MS67 that PCGS grades. Contact me if you have one.

MJCoin

Anyone that thinks they can go out and buy $100.00 worth of 1981 mint sets, and get rich off the 1981S SBA should have at it. I will personally help them retire off any examples that grade PCGS MS70. I sure other forum members would one up me!

cosmicdebris

Wow!!!!! I am gearing up for the SMS/Mint Set only Registry set and really wanted to try and get as many as I can in at least MS66. This is going to make things alot more difficult and expensive than I thought. By the way PCGS price guide has this as a $98.00 coin.

cosmicdebris

One other thing nice MS SBA set DRG those must be some great looking SBAs.

MJCoin

DRG, that Icon coin of yours is stunning!

MS67PLUS

I had one a few years ago that I thought was an MS-67 it was better than a lot of the other MS67 SBAs I had and sent it in for grading it came back MS66 I broke it out sent it back in and it came back as MS65 so I sent it in again and it came back MS66 sold it for like $275 back then.

wondercoin

"I have a standing offer of $10k for the first 1981 S MS67 that PCGS grades. Contact me if you have one."

Last year on the US Coin Forum a few of us made sight-unseen offers of $10,000 for the first 1981(s) SBA $1 that would grade PCGS-MS68. We were essentially laughed at as lunatics. Now, the #1 set owner is offering $10,000 for the first PCGS-MS67 made!!! I am impressed by the sincere sight-unseen offer (roughly 20x-25x the undergrade price) and I have had my eye on being the first person to grade one for some time now.

It is amazing to consider that right now one can buy roughly a dozen PCGS-MS65 GEM SAINTS for the same $10,000 that MS67 SBA $1 is fetching. I remember not too long ago when those dozen MS65 Saints were actually worth say $25,000. At that time, had the 1981(s) SBA $1 been graded it might have fetched $1000-$1250, or maybe the value of 1/2 of a single Saint at that time. Now, there is a sight-unseen offer for a price equal to 12 Saints. It is amazing to consider that this coin may have outperformed GEM PCGS SAINTS by ROUGHLY 24 FOLD OVER THE PAST TEN YEARS!! Amazing!! And, for the record, today, I would personally rather own the (12) PCGS-MS65 Saints any day of the week than that 1981(s) in PCGS-MS67 if given the chance Wondercoin

dbldie55

Just to keep this on the level. There is an actual market for Gem Saints (as they exist), and the market for at this time non-existant SBA's is speculative. But if you can get me a 1927-D Saint in MS65 for $1,000 I am a buyer. What is the one PCGS MS65 1920 Saint worth?

Dabigkahuna

DRG is the HD of the SBA!
So far the best I have been able to do with that date is two MS65's and I cherish those! Brutal date!

Larry
Dabigkahuna

My Ebay Auctions

braddick

Great analysis Mitch.
Dead on.

howie08

Bill :
The PCGS price guide is out to lunch on this series. I wrote them about it last week and they informed me this guide wasn't to be used to verify what a coin is worth !! I'm not sure what it IS to be used for then. I just got done yesterday searching 40 1981 mint sets and 30 1981 SBA Souvenir sets and sent in 1 1981 S that has a slight chance at MS66. also 1 P and 1 D that might go 67. We'll see , but I search these sets all the time looking for good coins , and they're just not there. If the marks aren't in the hair , as Tad said , they're on the nose and neck.
Good luck finding that S in 67, let alone 68
Howie

howie08

I need to amend my above : My 81 P & D MIGHT go 66 NOT 67 !! I wish !!
Howie

cosmicdebris

I am gonna need all 3 of the MS 1981 (PDS) for my set so to keep on my budget I may just have to settle for a MS65 on the 81s.
Now when I get to the 1973 P and D Ike I guess I am gonna be in the same pickle I will probably only be able to get MS65s for these too.

wayneherndon

Anybody could go out and buy $100 worth of sets and be rich.

Good luck. If you can buy the sets at Greysheet bid, you'll have 7 chances. I've been through over 1000 1981 Mint Sets (over $15,000 worth) and found 3 1981-S MS 65s and none higher.

WH

dbldie55

<< <i>"I have a standing offer of $10k for the first 1981 S MS67 that PCGS grades. Contact me if you have one."

Last year on the US Coin Forum a few of us made sight-unseen offers of $10,000 for the first 1981(s) SBA $1 that would grade PCGS-MS68. We were essentially laughed at as lunatics. Now, the #1 set owner is offering $10,000 for the first PCGS-MS67 made!!! I am impressed by the sincere sight-unseen offer (roughly 20x-25x the undergrade price) and I have had my eye on being the first person to grade one for some time now.

It is amazing to consider that right now one can buy roughly a dozen PCGS-MS65 GEM SAINTS for the same $10,000 that MS67 SBA $1 is fetching. I remember not too long ago when those dozen MS65 Saints were actually worth say $25,000. At that time, had the 1981(s) SBA $1 been graded it might have fetched $1000-$1250, or maybe the value of 1/2 of a single Saint at that time. Now, there is a sight-unseen offer for a price equal to 12 Saints. It is amazing to consider that this coin may have outperformed GEM PCGS SAINTS by ROUGHLY 24 FOLD OVER THE PAST TEN YEARS!! Amazing!! And, for the record, today, I would personally rather own the (12) PCGS-MS65 Saints any day of the week than that 1981(s) in PCGS-MS67 if given the chance Wondercoin >>



Why would it be amazing that one pop one coin could outperform a common date coin? It is really amazing the conclusions you can make when you compare apples to oranges. If 10 were made, would everyone command a $10,000 price? Also, if the MS67 was made when the saints were worth $25,000, it would probably already be in DRG's collection and I have currently seen no other offers for a MS67 other than this one so you could not value it.

(I am not saying one will ever be made, or that they are not rare. The point is you cannot compare one currently non-existant SBA to a common coin in another series and make any valid conclusions. For a more valid comparison, look at common MS68 State Quarter prices in the last 6 months vs. Common MS65 Saints. Which one looks better in your portfolio?)

As for this question:

<< <i>That's a ridiculous price, the mintage is over 3 million -- what coin with a mintage of 3 million sells for $400?
>>



The 1886-O Morgan had a mintage over 10 million, and the one MS67 in the series is probably worth over $500,000. (it has probably outperformed common date Saints too)

supercoin

For a more valid comparison, look at common MS68 State Quarter prices in the last 6 months vs. Common MS65 Saints. Which one looks better in your portfolio?

Actually, a 1981-P SBA in MS67 would be a closer comparison. Or even a 1981-S SBA in MS66. Both have been around a lot longer to "prove" themselves as compared to the state quarters. And both have handily outperformed common date Saints.

Exceptional price performance almost always requires something uncommon -- conditon-rarity, date-rarity, fabulous toning, whatever. Common anything ain't likely to cut it unless there's tremendous demand (1999 silver proof sets and buffalo commems are recent examples).

Of course exceptional price performance can be exceptionally bad as well.

dbldie55

That was my point. You cannot compare a common coin to a rare coin (regardless of how you define rarity, in this case grade rarity). You also have to look at how long these things have been "popular", not that long with many people and are just coming into their own (and the price trends reflect this), whereas the Saints have done it for decades.

cladking

I've been through at least a couple thousand '81 sets. Found a couple that might make MS-66
nothing like a MS-67. the Denvers aren't too tough in 67, and the Philly's show up in 66 often
enough. Halves from this set are surprisingly tough too. And interestingly only about 5% of the
quarters have a nice surface AND are MS-65 or better. (These probably don't appear as gems in rolls)

They made a lot of these sets, but how many are left?

dbldie55

I would bet less than 5% of these sets have been searched for potential certification (and that is probably high). But, where are they? Well, I know where two sets are. One is in a box with every other mint set from 1960-2001 and the other has been cut open to put into a Dansco album (and I have no plans to go and see what grade they may be). I would bet you will find a majority of these in the same place. Cut open to be put into a Dansco, or in a drawer alone or with other mint sets. Is there a MS67 1981-S SBA? (I would say the probability is high). Will one be found? (I would say the probability is low)

All I can say for certain is that I will never own one of these coins in a PCGS holder in any grade.

DRG

It sounds like the few of us here have gone through a lot of 1981 mint sets. If we have gone through 3,000 as a group that represents 0.1% of the total. I have only heard of 2 MS66's from the group, given that 66 have been graded, how many sets have been searched? If our group is a good example 33 X 3,000 = 99,000 sets have already been serched and no MS67's. On the other hand this also leaves the possibility of about 2,000 MS66's total if all of the sets were searched. (We searched 1/1,000 of the total, 1,000 X 2 = 2,000) If there are this many 66's then there probably is a few MS67's out there also. But are they still MS67's? After being moved around for 20 years, cut and put into albums etc. And will they ever be graded? Time will tell.

dbldie55

<< <i>If there are this many 66's then there probably is a few MS67's out there also. But are they still MS67's? After being moved around for 20 years, cut and put into albums etc. And will they ever be graded? Time will tell. >>



The was the exact point of my last statement. I have a feeling that the remaining coins are fairly well dispursed.

pontiacinf

give me the 1k...ill find your SBA for you...


lol or have fun trying

supercoin

Dammit dbldie55 -- go check your album for that MS67! Can't you see we're starving out here??

cladking

It would seem that if any of these exist then there is a very good chance it will be found.
Mint set prices are sure to escalate sharply due to demand from people looking for gems,
and collectors will need coins for their sets and there is no other place to find some of
these coins. Eventually mint set prices will be a sum total of the coins they contain, with
the choice sets bringing more than their mediocre counterparts. Surely higher price with
sharply higher prices for some will bring most of the remaining sets (especially gems) onto the market in relatively short order.

supercoin

I think it will be a slooow process. My guess is that huge numbers of mint sets are holed up in small groups in dank dark basements across America by oblivious owners.

Dealers of the future will send out hordes of dirty-faced orphans to scour garage and estate sales, rewarding each successful find of an original mint set with a scrap of stale bread.

I'm stocking up on bread right now.

benloe

Supercoin, you may need to go into therapy very soon.

braddick

"You may need to go into therapy soon".
See: Open Forum

georgewashinton

I'll contribute my observation regarding the 1981-S mint state SBA $1. I look through lots of mint sets of various years looking for
tough issues in high grades for submission to PCGS. Of these sets I reject a higher % of the 1981 mint sets than any other.
I'm only looking at the SBA $1's in these sets. Due to the washed-out look of the P-mint coins (1c through SBA $1), I think original
business-strike rolls is the best source for these issues.
As Cladmaker (a.w.coins) notes the usual 1981-S mint state SBA is a drab, marked-up, undesirable coin.

I've never examined any 1981 SBA souvenir sets (until recently I didn't know they even existed) so I don't know what the average
coin looks like. Perhaps these coins are similar to the mint set issues.
The 1981-S BU SBA $1 is very tough in MS-66 grade, even PCGS-65 examples are NOT easy to make, thus are worthwhile in their own
right. An MS-67? I'd love to see one, let alone be the first to have
the good fortune of "making " one at PCGS. Best Regards, Rob.

cladking

<< <i>I'll contribute my observation regarding the 1981-S mint state SBA $1. I look through lots of mint sets of various years looking for
tough issues in high grades for submission to PCGS.
I'm only looking at the SBA $1's in these sets. Due to the washed-out look of the P-mint coins (1c through SBA $1), I think original
business-strike rolls is the best source for these issues.
As Cladmaker (a.w.coins) notes the usual 1981-S mint state SBA is a drab, marked-up, undesirable coin.

I've never examined any 1981 SBA souvenir sets (until recently I didn't know they even existed) so I don't know what the average
coin looks like. Perhaps these coins are similar to the mint set issues.
The 1981-S BU SBA $1 is very tough in MS-66 grade, even PCGS-65 examples are NOT easy to make, thus are worthwhile in their own
right. An MS-67? I'd love to see one, let alone be the first to have
the good fortune of "making " one at PCGS. Best Regards, Rob. >>

cladking

Of these sets I reject a higher % of the 1981 mint sets than any other.

Jeesh. I can't be doing this right yet- it would have been faster to retype the sentence.
I'm guessing you don't do too much with the '69 set. And in some ways the '74 is worse.

Tell us more about a.w.coins... ... thanks

supercoin

Here's what the souvenir sets look like:

1979-81 SBA Souvenir Sets

I haven't searched hundreds of them, but from those I did search the "quality" was similar to the mint sets. I thought it would be a more economical way to acquire them -- I found some cheap once -- but later found out (after reselling them too cheap!) that they normally go for significantly more than the mint sets.

howie08

Tad ;
I got a deal on some of the 1981 Souvenir sets , and have looked through all of them , before selling a lot on E-Bay at $ 40 + , and found that the quality is the same as the mint sets. By my calculations , there were 90 ,000 of these souvenir sets made. But , since there weren't any bags of the 1981 put out , all we have to choose from is the mint sets and souvenir sets , so we're really limited. Responding to another thread of yours on the Sacagawea ; I got 5 rolls of 2002 D's and 3 rolls of 2002 P's in , and the P's look worse than the D's , if that's possible !! I found one coin of each that might be worth submitting. My D's , however , did not exhibit the roll mark that yours did.
Howie

cladking

There were some '81 SBA's released in 1980 mint bags according to reports in
Numis news around 1985. They varied, but no more than 100,000 of any. I haven't seen a lot of the SBA souvenir sets but in the ones I saw it seemed the Denver was a little lower quality than the regular mint
set issue. The '79's and 1980's are lower quality, of course?

supercoin

I searched larger numbers of the 79 and 80 souvenir sets, and again no marked difference in quality from mint sets. I was buying a bunch of 1980 souvenir sets in particular to look for 1980-S, which is a tough date and for some reason I couldn't find original rolls of that date.

Strangely, 1979-80 mint sets are generally not a good source for high grade SBAs, I've had much better luck with rolls.

georgewashinton

Thanks for the input on the search for sources of high-grade SBA
$1's. This gem BU modern coin hunt sure has been fun and an
education also. Previous perceptions (based on NO experience) are
being replaced with more realistic ones as interested individuals
actually hunt for specific coins. I look through lots of mint sets and
original rolls, hoping the money I spend isn't in futility. Who wants
to look through recycled mint sets already scanned for worthwhile
coins?

I'm curious. Did someone find a nice original bag of 1971-P Ikes?
I noticed the PCGS pop increased by 29 pcs in MS-65 and 4 pcs
in MS-66 just in the past couple of weeks. I see that Kennedy
Center has a small display ad in the Ike section of Coin World
classified ads. KC is offering 1971-P Ikes in P-64, P-65, & P-66
grades. $3599 for a 1971-P PCGS-66 Ike! Wish I had the three
specimens I sold on Teletrade back in 1998-99! Best, Gee Dub.

littlewicher

I've actually bought around 20 SBA souvenir sets. Out of those, I've found one that actually might be a candidate for a MS67. It has no visible marks with the naked eye, tons of luster, and a strong strike. I'm sending it in this July. I'll let you all know what it comes back as.

littlewicher

Forgot to mention that it is a 1981-S SBA.

keets

i think one of the biggest misconceptions, especially among modern bashers or collectors who have no interest in modern coinage, is that since the mint makes a boat-load of a certain issue it must certainly exist in high grade in large quantities. from the comments here from various "seachers" of all those mint and souvenir sets i'd say that ain't so.

it's been my experience with other issues. my deal is early 70's proofs and mint sets. trying to locate some nice jeffersons. from looking at sets they just aren't there. the ike's that i see in the mint sets really are pretty sad and the overall proofs from that period don't have any cameo as a general rule. i looked through about 50 from 71-73 this past monday and didn't see anything worth buying, and they were only $5 a shot!!

funny thing, if they get it right at the mint and get some mark free coins in sets, the 20-30 year storage does 'em in. a guy just can't win!

Flash

I wish you would all stop looking for MS66 or MS67 1981-S SBA's! I acquired my MS66 about six months ago at about half the price as this one that Cladmaker recently sold. When I boutht mine the pop was 63 with none higher. The lower the pop, the happier I am.

DHeath

You're all right about the quality of the mint set and souvenir set coins. Add several hundred sets searched to the list for me. I'm not sure why, but I've seen several dozen 81-S SBA's that would go the grade if they weren't scuffed from 10 o'clock to 4 o'clock. Most seem to have more than one scratch. It must have been the packaging process. Keets, I just purchased 22 more 71 mint sets today and I don't collect Jeffs. I'll look on your behalf and PM if any are nice. Consider them a freebie. I look at the halves. BTW, I have purchased quite a few Ikes from you Cladking, and have always been delighted. The MS66's were stunning. I wonder how many sets have been searched multiple times?

cladking

I'd guess between 50 and 65% of the Ike mint sets are gone, lost to
the ravages of time. Of the remaining only about 60% have been checked
for gems. Until recently many MS-65's would still be available after the set
was checked, but now almost everything all the way down to MS-64 is re-
moved. Other coins have not been checked to nearly this degree. Incredibly
it's actually possible to find mint set rolls of the other denominations which
haven't been checked. Probably about a quarter of the sets on the market
have been checked multiple times. Occasionally I run into a batch of sets
that looks like it was gone over many times by many people(perhaps store stock?)

DHeath

Sorry Cladking, that's Cladmaker with the Ikes. Good luck with your site!

DRG

I have looked at a few of the 1981 SBA$ special sets also and my experience was that the quality was actually worse then thre regular mints sets. The price of these sets doesn't make much sense to me now that I have seen the quality of the coins.

georgewashinton

Let's keep this discussion going regarding the 1981-S MS SBA $1. The population will edge up over
time, but I don't think any noticeable jumps will occur due to the previously mentioned surface
imperfections. An MS-67 specimen may eventually be encapsulated and that will be a most fortunate
result for the lucky submitter.

There are other modern issues that are much harder to find than most people realize (or care.) I'd
like to read others' thoughts regarding this topic. Happy Hunting, Geo.

cladking

OT deleted.

cladking

I recently went through a large number of '81 regular mint sets and found a
two nice S SBA's. One is a unspectacular but nice MS-66 but the other is a nice
PL high end 66. It could go 67 on eye appeal but probably wouldn't get the PL
designation since it's not a dramatic PL.

Has anyone else had any luck with these?

TWQG

I've got one in my Dansco 7070 that would probably go 65/66. It was a gift from a forum member.