Don't get me wrong, I like watching my portfolio go up but...
mrpaseo
Posts: 4,753 ✭✭✭
Can someone explain to me, or direct me to a write up that can explain why the market is raising and PMs are falling?
Don't get me wrong, I like the idea that my portfolio is going up and that PMs are somewhat on sale (And still going down), but I want to understand it.
Thank you all for your time,
Ray
(Edited for a typo and to add this picture for no reason)
Don't get me wrong, I like the idea that my portfolio is going up and that PMs are somewhat on sale (And still going down), but I want to understand it.
Thank you all for your time,
Ray
(Edited for a typo and to add this picture for no reason)
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Comments
2) Some used to say, that when stocks go down, bonds go up, and vice-versa. But you can't live with that theory alone for long.
Add in that PMs go up or down -in opposition to the value of the dollar, which adds another dimension.
Oh, and then there's the other 2 million explanations to consider.
<< <i>Can someone explain to me, or direct me to a write up that can explain why the market is raising and PMs are falling?
Don't get me wrong, I like the idea that my portfolio is going up and that PMs are somewhat on sale (And still going down), but I want to understand it. >>
That said, we are not seeing this. I know there was just a massive exodus into Silver since we recently experienced the shortage and premiums that came along with it. I am sure there are many reasons but could it be that the shortage is causing people to have no venue to go to? There is little out there that holds value aside from land but do we truly own land if when we miss an annual tax payment "they" can take it away? From what I can tell, the best option (Not the only option) is PMs for the share fact that "they" can not produce more of it.
I'm thinking in the mind of the working class that does not have time to track the market, research and continue to research to ensure their medium of security is still the best option week after week. At least with physical Silver/Gold they have hands on and can feel the security.
Ray
Dont believe everything you read, especially if it is a blog or an article surrounded by advertisements promoting or suggesting the very topic of said article.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I will only offer one bit of advice.
Don't believe everything you read, especially if it is a blog or an article surrounded by advertisements promoting or suggesting the very topic of said article. >>
Thank you, I 100% understand. This is actually one of my issues, I do not know who to believe. As I posted in another thread, I have had my eyes shut for many years, living in my bubble. I did not watch the news and just lived my life. Now that I am researching, I am finding many conflicting stories and I don't know how to figure out who is even close to the truth...lol. Which brings me to this forum to discuss. I understand I must take all opinions with a grain of salt. I am trying to take in as much as I can so I can form my opinion and what is the best course of action for our future.
Some say stay the course... some say, "Beans, Bullets and PMs"...lol. I like to be prepared, it's ingrained in me from 20 years in the service but I do not want to become a comparison theorist or a "fearmonger" as my sister calls it. That's a whole new topic...lol.
Thanks again,
Ray
<< <i>I will only offer one bit of advice.
Dont believe everything you read, especially if it is a blog or an article surrounded by advertisements promoting or suggesting the very topic of said article. >>
Correct. Take the word of a trusted source.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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<< <i>I will only offer one bit of advice.
Dont believe everything you read, especially if it is a blog or an article surrounded by advertisements promoting or suggesting the very topic of said article. >>
Correct. Take the word of a trusted source. >>
Are you saying Forbes is a trusted source?
earnings and dividends. There are few attractive alternatives for big money.
The Fed is helping.
Precious metals made a great run, gold rose from below $250 to almost $2000,
an eight fold move.
During that time, stocks were essentially flat, and just passed the March 2000
high point earlier this year.
There is trillions of dollars that must be invested. That money is mostly going into
stocks. Not much of that money is likely to find its way into precious metals.
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<< <i>
<< <i>I will only offer one bit of advice.
Dont believe everything you read, especially if it is a blog or an article surrounded by advertisements promoting or suggesting the very topic of said article. >>
Correct. Take the word of a trusted source. >>
Are you saying Forbes is a trusted source? >>
Well, maybe not. I did see some brokerage advertising on the page.
It's like cohodk basically said, take everything you read on the web with a grain of salt. However, when those grains start turning into a mountain you might want to take notice.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Believe what you see, but expand your horizons. The world is MUCH BIGGER than the 50 mile radius each of us lives in.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The world is MUCH BIGGER than the 50 mile radius each of us lives in. >>
Hey, is that a fat joke?
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>OK. One more thing. Open your eyes.
Believe what you see, but expand your horizons. The world is MUCH BIGGER than the 50 mile radius each of us lives in. >>
Ummm.... 20 years in the Army... six deployments to third world countries... My downfall is even though I saw/felt the suffering around the world, I was protected by the umbrella of the Army.
I'm not sure what you are referring to but I have learned how much the world is in financial distress and how the world is basically tied to the USD. I am learning and intend to continue to learn.
Thanks,
Ray
<< <i>OK. One more thing. Open your eyes.
Believe what you see, but expand your horizons. The world is MUCH BIGGER than the 50 mile radius each of us lives in. >>
You are welcome to visit my radius any time.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I suggest at the minimum maintain diversification and also would recommend looking into the concept of "permanent portfolio" for wealth preservation (wealth in the genral term as much or as little of it you want to preserve). In the nutshell permanent portfolio is a mix of 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% cash and 25% in Precious Metals. You can tweak it to suit your taste by throwing into equation real estate but even maintaining 20% of your holdings in PMs you will fit well into this board
<< <i>@mrpaseo
I suggest at the minimum maintain diversification and also would recommend looking into the concept of "permanent portfolio" for wealth preservation (wealth in the genral term as much or as little of it you want to preserve). In the nutshell permanent portfolio is a mix of 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% cash and 25% in Precious Metals. You can tweak it to suit your taste by throwing into equation real estate but even maintaining 20% of your holdings in PMs you will fit well into this board
I agree, diversification is the only way to go. The ratios are different for each of us and I agree that there should be a "Base" portfolio to preserve our wealth. I am still building this safety net and just started with the PMs. I'm not sure how much/how fast it will accumulate but like anything, steady investing, dollar cost averaging and long term has always worked for me . I'm hoping the current state of the economy does not mess with this thought process but I think it is going to. Only time will tell. This is why I am spending so much energy these days trying to learn about the economy and where we are heading.
Thank you for your input,
Ray
Your method of investing will always reflect your opinions on the outlook for the economy, the US's position in the world, and even your political views about where we are headed. That being the case, what makes sense for someone who recommends one approach may not agree with how you perceive things to be.
If you think that the government indicators reflect reality and that QE to Infinity is a good thing that has stimulated real economic growth, then investing in stocks is a great idea. If you think that QE to Infinity doesn't affect the money supply or the value of the dollar and that inflation is in check, then 30-year bonds are your ticket.
If you think that it's impossible to get a good handle on where real wealth is actually being created these days, then a more reserved approach including cash and precious metals or other commodities might be more feasible as a way to manage your exposure to the probabilities of sovereign default.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Can someone explain to me, or direct me to a write up that can explain why the market is raising and PMs are falling? >>
Ray, you are asking a great set of questions that are going to be the start of a stunning epiphany you will experience once you understand the answers.
I had my own (an Oh-Yeah, I get-it moment!!) only 5-6 years ago.
It starts with throwing out any basis of believe that the Stock Market is a level playing field, devoid of any corruption and the notion that you have a chance to make money in it for a substantial period of time.
Sure every one gets a nice pop in a stock once in a while.
I was in on the great HealthSouth score years ago and made a f'n killing when it rose from .07.5 cents a share (near bankruptcy) to a return as a viable company still listed on the NYSE.
Look at that recovery , Imagine having bought 100K shares at 8 cents, back then?
To understand what's going on I would begin with this video.
Its 3.5 hrs long, it was done before 9/11 but is so relative, so concise in the historical timeline, you will love it.
Its fairly non-political and 'matter of fact' This is how I started to "get it".
Money Masters
This guy did another updated version years later, but seeing this first is a foundation of learning the Game.
Hint to the answers:
Where does Apple keep its $141 billion cash hoard ?
Think what you are getting on your savings account at the Bank and what the Bank is charging for a loan. The spread.
Is Apple or GE or Intel stashing their money in a Bank getting less than 1% return? It is certainly not "safe", no FDIC insurance on the Billions for them!
Think Risk, Return, Safety. To Big To Fail, think Federal Reserve, think monetizing Debt, QE 1-4 or is it QE5 now?
BTW, do not own any BONDS or any paper with a Promise to pay you Tuesday for a Hamburger Today, for that matter.
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Start reading Zero HedgeZERO HEDGE
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<< <i>OK. One more thing. Open your eyes.
Believe what you see, but expand your horizons. The world is MUCH BIGGER than the 50 mile radius each of us lives in. >>
Ummm.... 20 years in the Army... six deployments to third world countries... My downfall is even though I saw/felt the suffering around the world, I was protected by the umbrella of the Army.
I'm not sure what you are referring to but I have learned how much the world is in financial distress and how the world is basically tied to the USD. I am learning and intend to continue to learn.
Thanks,
Ray >>
Ummm.... 20 years in the Army... six deployments to third world countries..
This has already created an image in your mind of what the world looks like. All is not war torn. Financial distress is a relative term, but realistically, if one is going to be in distress then financially would be the easiest. Think food or energy distresses.
Just get out an about the USA. Drive across the country--north to south, east to west, and all between. I think you will quickly find the USA is not going to hell in a handbasket. Sure there are problems, but there is also tremendous growth and above all---opportunity.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>OK. One more thing. Open your eyes.
Believe what you see, but expand your horizons. The world is MUCH BIGGER than the 50 mile radius each of us lives in. >>
You are welcome to visit my radius any time.
Would love to have a beer with ya. I've been to Fla 8x in the last 10 years--All of Fla except for the NW and panhandle area. I have many friends that live there and my wife loves the state. The state is not collapsing. Surely there are vacant houses and commercial properties. But that doesnt mean the economy sucks, it means there are too many houses and strip malls. It also means that the economy that built all those houses and strip malls was unsustainable. So to compare the present to the unsustainable past is an exercise in futility. Florida and the other sunshine states will continue to grow as the GLOBAL baby boomers look for a more comfortable retirement. I am positive on Florida real estate.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>OK. One more thing. Open your eyes.
Believe what you see, but expand your horizons. The world is MUCH BIGGER than the 50 mile radius each of us lives in. >>
Ummm.... 20 years in the Army... six deployments to third world countries... My downfall is even though I saw/felt the suffering around the world, I was protected by the umbrella of the Army.
I'm not sure what you are referring to but I have learned how much the world is in financial distress and how the world is basically tied to the USD. I am learning and intend to continue to learn.
Thanks,
Ray >>
Ummm.... 20 years in the Army... six deployments to third world countries..
This has already created an image in your mind of what the world looks like. All is not war torn. Financial distress is a relative term, but realistically, if one is going to be in distress then financially would be the easiest. Think food or energy distresses.
Just get out an about the USA. Drive across the country--north to south, east to west, and all between. I think you will quickly find the USA is not going to hell in a handbasket. Sure there are problems, but there is also tremendous growth and above all---opportunity. >>
Ironically, I just drove from Tennessee to California and back (In the last year). I understand what you are trying to get across. I have faith in humanity and in the United States (One of the motivational factors that kept me in the Army so long). I am doing my best to review the doom and gloom material and trying to keep a level head about it.
I appreciate your concern,
Ray
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<< <i>
<< <i>OK. One more thing. Open your eyes.
Believe what you see, but expand your horizons. The world is MUCH BIGGER than the 50 mile radius each of us lives in. >>
You are welcome to visit my radius any time.
Would love to have a beer with ya. I've been to Fla 8x in the last 10 years--All of Fla except for the NW and panhandle area. I have many friends that live there and my wife loves the state. The state is not collapsing. Surely there are vacant houses and commercial properties. But that doesnt mean the economy sucks, it means there are too many houses and strip malls. It also means that the economy that built all those houses and strip malls was unsustainable. So to compare the present to the unsustainable past is an exercise in futility. Florida and the other sunshine states will continue to grow as the GLOBAL baby boomers look for a more comfortable retirement. I am positive on Florida real estate. >>
And no sales tax on coins! No state income tax is also nice.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey