Does Todd Helton get into HOF?

Skyhawks1b

Just curious to what you guys thought.

CubsKiller99

Zero chance. He's never gonna be there.

Similar to Larry Walker, he spent too many seasons in Colorado.

Great numbers, but hugely inflated by the Coors Field Factor (CFF).

No one who played the majority of their career in Colorado is gonna make the
Hall unless they crack the 3000-hit barrier.

Go to baseball-reference.com and look at his career home/away splits:

Home: .349
Away: .289

If you ever want to be a Hall-of-Famer then don't sign with the Rockies.

ldferg

No.

Skyhawks1b

Agreed

shagrotn77

Absolutely not.

otwcards

If you play in Colorado and want to make the Hall, you better put up a stat line that looks like Lou Gehrig, not Bobby Abreu...

Dboneesq

Not a chance in hell. Voting wont even be close.

pclpads

Only if he buys a ticket.

orioles93

I don't know. I always thought he should be. Hes better than a bunch of players that are already in. Maybe I'm just biased cause I always liked him, but during my childhood he was always one of the best players in the league year in and year out that I can remember.

NVbaseball

Surprising to see he's still playing

Cool to see both Helton and Walker have the exact same road ops; .865 is pretty good. But the number of players ahead of them is getting pretty long

Estil

How many HOF eligible players with a .320 average are not in the HOF? He's also got over 1300 RBI (plus one shy of 1300 walks) and close to 2500 hits. I'm not saying he's first ballot material or anything but I think he is a very reasonable candidate, certainly more than most of you are letting on.

As for the ones who hold him playing in Denver against him (the fact that he stayed with one team for all his 17 years is a major plus), he's still batting close to .290 in away games.

CubsKiller99

Yeah that .865 road OPS is quite a concidence. But I'll take the right fielder with the rifle arm over the first baseman.

You're right that the nmber of players ahead of both these guys make it very unlikely that
they'll ever get into the Hall except visiting with family.

To get a vague idea what chance Helton has, Walker hasn't gotten more than 23% of the vote
and I expect his percentage, like Mattingly, to drop over time as the BBWA that actually saw
him play decrease.

Also, the newer BBWA are much more stat-conscious and I don't see the "Coors Park Factor"
being something either will overcome.

Sorry Estil but it be the truth.

zendude

Probably not.

It's crazy that Jeff Bagwell hasn't even gotten in yet.

3BoyzTrading

He needs 569 more hits.

GB5HOF

If that's the case...any Yankee who's spent the majority of his career in the New Yankee Stadium should be scrutinized closer. That place is a joke. And players like Cabrera and Fielder who play in Detroit should have a premium put on their power numbers.

I personally think Helton gets in.

.320 lifetime hitter with over 350 HR's and more walks than strikeouts. Over 1300 RBI's. Nearly 600 hundred doubles. Entire career spent in one uniform.

mygotta

Wow. I am surprised that stats do not stand on their own. Whats the distance in Coors field and why would they handicap someones career? You would think MLB would impose standards that gives everyone the same chance to get into the Hall regardless of what team they are on, no?

mcadams

How many times has Todd Helton been the best player in baseball? Zero.. Dale Murphy was the best player in baseball twice and a top 5 player over a decade, and he's still on the outside looking in.

GB5HOF

When was Orlando Cepeda ever the best player in baseball?

Whoops...I see what you were saying..MVP's won. And Cepeda does have one in 1967.

Actually....how the hell did Helton finish 5th in the MVP voting in 2000....

He led the league in hits (216), Doubles (59), RBI (147), Batting Average (.372), OBP (.463), SLG (.698), OPS (1.162), and Total Bases (405).

He hit 42 HR's that year...walked over 100 times, and struck out only 61 times.

And for the sabr geeks...he had the highest WAR at 8.86...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2000.shtml#NLmvp

mygotta

<< <i>How many times has Todd Helton been the best player in baseball? Zero.. Dale Murphy was the best player in baseball twice and a top 5 player over a decade, and he's still on the outside looking in. >>



And yet, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were the best 7 times.

CubsKiller99

<< <i>Wow. I am surprised that stats do not stand on their own. Whats the distance in Coors field and why would they handicap someones career? You would think MLB would impose standards that gives everyone the same chance to get into the Hall regardless of what team they are on, no? >>



It's batting average at Coors that is boosted more than homers. What is does is make
mediocre hitters look good, and good hitters look great.

Largest "Park Factor" in the majors, it is a nightmare ballpark for a pitcher.

I remember when we had Galarraga playing here in St. Louis at the old Busch Stadium.
He was a total stiff and hit .243 for the Cardinals. Traded to Colorado and the next
season he hits .370 and wins a batting title. That is the Coors Park effect.

I don't believe that Helton's 60-point home/away difference will be overcome. Walker's is even
worse at .348/.278; it will keep both players out of the Hall.

One of the reasons Helton's never been traded: other GM's know he's not a .320 hitter. He's
more of a .280 hitter for most any other team.

CubsKiller99

<< <i>

<< <i>How many times has Todd Helton been the best player in baseball? Zero.. Dale Murphy was the best player in baseball twice and a top 5 player over a decade, and he's still on the outside looking in. >>



And yet, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were the best 7 times. >>



They were the best juiced-up cheaters in the game 7 times.

mygotta

<< <i>

<< <i>Wow. I am surprised that stats do not stand on their own. Whats the distance in Coors field and why would they handicap someones career? You would think MLB would impose standards that gives everyone the same chance to get into the Hall regardless of what team they are on, no? >>



It's batting average at Coors that is boosted more than homers. What is does is make
mediocre hitters look good, and good hitters look great.

Largest "Park Factor" in the majors, it is a nightmare ballpark for a pitcher.

I remember when we had Galarraga playing here in St. Louis at the old Busch Stadium.
He was a total stiff and hit .243 for the Cardinals. Traded to Colorado and the next
season he hits .370 and wins a batting title. That is the Coors Park effect.

I don't believe that Helton's 60-point home/away difference will be overcome. Walker's is even
worse at .348/.278; it will keep both players out of the Hall.

One of the reasons Helton's never been traded: other GM's know he's not a .320 hitter. He's
more of a .280 hitter for any other team. >>



OK. Then what about pitching? Does a pitcher stand a better chance at the Hall if he spends his career there, given its a "pitchers nightmare" as you say?

CubsKiller99

<< <i>OK. Then what about pitching? Does a pitcher stand a better chance at the Hall if he spends his career there, given its a "pitchers nightmare" as you say? >>



A career Colorado pticher with Jack Morris numbers would be a first-round hall of fame selection.

This next one is Jack's last year on the ballot and at 68% it's doubtful he makes it unless he gets
a huge "sympathy vote" with Glavine, Mussina, Schilling and Maddux ahead of him.

I don't believe in raw numbers. I only believe in park-adjusted numbers that take into account
the ballparks played in.

Fortunately for Jim Rice I'm not in the BBWA. He squeaked in on the 15th and final pity ballot
and IMHO is not a hall of famer.

NVbaseball

Park Factors and adjusted stats are easy to find. Taking those things into account, it is easy to see both Helton and Walker were very good hitters. It's also easy to see they weren't good enough to exceed the Hall-of-Fame standards. They weren't as good as Bagwell or Piazza. For first baseman and corner outfielders who were never the very best hitters in the league, their careers were also too short. Dwight Evans and Tim Raines weren't as good hitters, but did more to help their teams by playing in so many more games

CubsKiller99

There are some very good calculated numbers that take into account a player's
entire output: hitting, fielding and baserunning. Or pitching.

Sabermetric calcs like WAR do that really well.

Raines is in my hall of fame. He will be in the real one before it's over.

If they can put a rock in the outlfield like Jim Rice in the Hall then they better
have room for Raines. Park-adjusted, Rice's offensive numbers are NOT
impressive. And if he'd played in smaller-market town he'd have been out
after the first ballot.

GB5HOF

Speaking of fielding...I think Helton has been regarded as an above average first baseman. I see 3 Gold Gloves in his history. Definitely not a liability in the field ala Mr. Rice.

vols1

no, another one of those questionable guys that went of hitting .338/35 HR's a season to .290/12 HR's a season after PED's testing went into effect.

MiniDuff

I'm sorry, but I seem to recall his own manager commenting on his juicing long ago as well. IMO he doesn't get the 5% to stay on the ballot.

Yankees001

NO

digicat

<< <i>One of the reasons Helton's never been traded: other GM's know he's not a .320 hitter. He's more of a .280 hitter for most any other team. >>



Many GMs would LOVE to have a .280 hitter with a .350+ OBP and some power.

PowderedH2O

I've heard Jim Rice mentioned a few times as a defensive liability. I beg to differ. Rice had a decent range factor, a pretty good arm, and played the Green Monster quite well. Was he a Gold Glove calibre fielder? No. But, I wouldn't confuse him with Greg Luzinski or Manny Ramirez. He was adequate. Nothing special, but not horrible. How come Lou Brock never comes up when talking about poor defensive outfielders?

CubsKiller99

<< <i>I've heard Jim Rice mentioned a few times as a defensive liability. I beg to differ. Rice had a decent range factor, a pretty good arm, and played the Green Monster quite well. Was he a Gold Glove calibre fielder? No. But, I wouldn't confuse him with Greg Luzinski or Manny Ramirez. He was adequate. Nothing special, but not horrible. How come Lou Brock never comes up when talking about poor defensive outfielders? >>



A fair question. In spite of Brock's speed I'd put him at about the same fielding
rating as Rice due to total lack of fielding instincts. His arm was maybe a tad
lesser than Rice.

In Strat-O-Matic they both deserve their usual 4 rating (1-4 with 1 best).

CubsKiller99

<< <i>

<< <i>One of the reasons Helton's never been traded: other GM's know he's not a .320 hitter. He's more of a .280 hitter for most any other team. >>



Many GMs would LOVE to have a .280 hitter with a .350+ OBP and some power. >>




They would love a .280 hitter with Coors Field power. But not at a .320 hitter price tag
which is what he'd be demanding.

mygotta

<< <i>

In Strat-O-Matic they both deserve their usual 4 rating (1-4 with 1 best). >>



LOVE Strat-O-Matic!! Have not played that in so long!!

I developed a strategy that eventually won me the world series.

CubsKiller99

You should play again.

There are computer versions and they still produce the cards for both football and baseball.

Really gets you back in touch with the game.

Estil

<< <i>Speaking of fielding...I think Helton has been regarded as an above average first baseman. I see 3 Gold Gloves in his history. Definitely not a liability in the field ala Mr. Rice. >>



Unfortunately as Jim Kaat will tell you, being a spectacular fielder often isn't enough to get a Cooperstown plaque. Look at how long Bill Mazeroski was overlooked.

MiniDuff

Keith Hernandez....best fielding first baseman i ever saw and a terrific clutch hitter. No respect...not enough power and the cocaine hurts obviously.

CubsKiller99

First base is the easiest position to play, and the one where the difference between a gold-glover and an average fielder
is so minimal over the course of the long season that it doesn't matter much.

First base is where they put the stiffs that can't play anywhere else.

telephoto1

<< <i>First base is the easiest position to play, and the one where the difference between a gold-glover and an average fielder
is so minimal over the course of the long season that it doesn't matter much.

First base is where they put the stiffs that can't play anywhere else. >>



Whenever I played, I always thought that was what right field was for...because that where I always got stuck....ha!

Edit to add... my official answer is no. Helton's good, but not HOF good.

cardsnbeads

Larry Walker has an MVP and more batting titles and he got less than 30% of the vote after 3 tries. Helton should be a Hall of Famer if Jim Rice and Orlando Cepeda are in. If Richie Ashburn made it in with a .308 then Helton should be a Hall of Famer.

davelinkbelt

<< <i>How many times has Todd Helton been the best player in baseball? Zero.. Dale Murphy was the best player in baseball twice and a top 5 player over a decade, and he's still on the outside looking in. >>



Interesting point! Puts the debate to bed in my view.

CubsKiller99

<< <i>Larry Walker has an MVP and more batting titles and he got less than 30% of the vote after 3 tries. Helton should be a Hall of Famer if Jim Rice and Orlando Cepeda are in. If Richie Ashburn made it in with a .308 then Helton should be a Hall of Famer. >>



Walker's best so far is 22.9%, and his latest was 21.6%. He's going in the wrong direction
so basically it's over for him.

I doubt he'll even get to 30% before his 15 ballots are done.

CubsKiller99

<< <i>Larry Walker has an MVP and more batting titles and he got less than 30% of the vote after 3 tries. Helton should be a Hall of Famer if Jim Rice and Orlando Cepeda are in. If Richie Ashburn made it in with a .308 then Helton should be a Hall of Famer. >>



Juan Gonzalez had two MVPs. He hit 434 homeruns.

After getting less than 5% in the vote after two ballots he will not be on it again.

Heltons chance of making it are close to zero.

slum22

Don't see it happening. He was arguably never great in his career. And definitely wasn't great for a long enough time anyway. Lots of people ahead of him in line.

Tabe

<< <i>Dale Murphy was the best player in baseball twice and a top 5 player over a decade >>


When was this stretch of 11+ years that Dale Murphy was a top 5 player? At best, he had a 6-year run as a top 5 player (1982-87) and that's being generous. I wouldn't put him top 5 in 1986, for example.

Tabe

<< <i>Don't see it happening. He was arguably never great in his career. And definitely wasn't great for a long enough time anyway. Lots of people ahead of him in line. >>


He won't get in, I agree, but Helton was definitely great at times in his career. His 2000 season - .372/42/147 with 59 doubles - was great. His 2001, with 49 more HRs and another 400 total bases, was great. He had four seasons of 160+ in OPS+ (which factors in ballparks). By any definition, that's great.

72skywalker

He gets in without a doubt- if he pays the admission fee and waits in line like the rest of us.

CubsKiller99

<< <i>He gets in without a doubt- if he pays the admission fee and waits in line like the rest of us. >>



Nice.

I've got some numbers that might settle matters for those still confused about Helton's gaudy numbers
and how that translates to hall of fame creds.

lgBA is an average player's batting average playing half the games in the same home park as the player in question.

Here are the career spreads of some well-known players:

BA lgBA Diff
328 268 +60 Boggs
313 282 +31 Walker
338 262 +76 Gwynn
320 287 +33 Helton
307 261 +46 Mattingly
305 263 +42 Brett

Now obviously power and other factors should be taken into consideration,
but Helton and Walker batting averages, park adjusted, are just not that good.
Mattingly was a better career hitter for average than either Helton or Walker, and he gets
no Hall of Fame props.

bobbybakeriv

I just don't think so. Good player; not a HOF'er in my opinion.

NVbaseball

<< <i>I've got some numbers that might settle matters for those still confused about Helton's gaudy numbers
and how that translates to hall of fame creds >>



Those numbers seem to support Helton and Walker for the Hall-of-Fame; .031 and .032 are pretty damn good. For comparison:

Derek Jeter .043
Robin Young .016
Cal Ripken .012
Mike Schmidt .000
Dale Murphy -.003

For the players that fall short, Murphy, Mattingly, Walker, Helton, lgBA - BA doesn't mean much. The real stat that matters is far fewer games played compared to the others. Had they played as many games as the others, they would all definitely be Hall-of-Famers

Cakes

<< <i>I just don't think so. Good player; not a HOF'er in my opinion. >>



Agreed, plus I like my HOF's really tough to get into.