What makes a cards price go up besides for the obvious reason?

Foo3112

For those who have access to VCP, I notice that some cards selling records can go back to as far as 2006 and surprisingly, the prices really haven't fluctuated too much. So what makes a card rise in price after a stars retirement besides the most obvious reason such as death? One reason I can think of is Ebay. I think that with ebay fees on the rise, a lot of sellers don't want to lose money so they price there items higher in order to try and make up for lost fee's which in turn would make the actual selling price a little higher. I have been guilty of this myself from time to time only if I think that I have a nice card that can fetch my asking price.

Dodgerfanjohn

I really don't think that's it. You can't make people pay more than they are willing to spend. Raising prices due to increased costs has put many companies out of business.

Maurice

Increased demand.

Foo3112

Maurice, I agree with that and then again, I'm sure everyone does but I am talking about cards that have always been in demand such as either a 53 bowman Mantle or a Ripken 82 Topps regular issue. If you go back and look at selling prices within the last 3-5 years, the prices haven't risen much or at all. They've stayed within the same range.

CubsKiller99

The biggest change that I can see in the last seven years is the premium being paid by collectors
for well-centered and more visually attractive examples. Sometimes as much as fifty per cent.

VCP and SMR are just a very crude and rough guidelines at their very best.

You have to see the card. The PSA guidelines are pretty broad on centering and registration
all the way through grade 7.

I've seen some PSA 7 cards that looked, to my eye, pretty mediocre. And some PSA 6
cards that blow them away visually.

So you can have two PSA 7 Mantles, and one just kills the other away in both centering
and eye appeal and can sell for a better price.

Buy the card, not the holder. This applies to more recent cards as well.

I think the prices are rising more for PSA 8 and above as collectors start to understand this.

addicted2ebay

I think we are seeing the late 80's early 90's kids who started collecting in the boom that have decent jobs now and are trying to get the cards they always wanted but had no shot at as a broke kid.

corncobb

PSA Set Registry buyers who buy purely for the label in order to make their set look good on paper.

BPorter26

<< <i>PSA Set Registry buyers who buy purely for the label in order to make their set look good on paper. >>



I truly agree the registry has a a lot to do with it. Then why would someone pay $200+ for a low pop common? It's all about who has the biggest D**K when it comes to the registry.

CubsKiller99

<< <i>

<< <i>PSA Set Registry buyers who buy purely for the label in order to make their set look good on paper. >>



I truly agree the registry has a a lot to do with it. Then why would someone pay $200+ for a low pop common? It's all about who has the biggest D**K when it comes to the registry. >>



I feel the same way about collectors who get so hot and bothered about "condition rarities" of cards that aren't rare
and are willing to pay high prices for them.

I personally don't believe in the entire "condition scarcity" concept . Too many ungraded cards out there still.

It's more about ego and who has the bigger wallet. Keep re-submitting the 9s, they'll be a 10 some day.

mygotta

The one thing that PSA might do in the long run is stabilize prices or set them in place, especially for late 80's cards. If we can imagine a time when 87 cards have dried up and all but one pack exist, all the cards deemed submittable have been submitted, you are shown to have 10,000 examples of Barry Bonds rookie in a PSA 10. Once could almost place an MSRP in that grade at that point. There might be 50,000 PSA 9's and 1,000,000 PSA 8's. So at this point, they would always be available.

Otherwise, as someone mentioned, each generation that comes in will see a new price from sellers who once paid a cheaper price, pay the new higher price and then you have your new adjustment.

CubsKiller99

It's a moving target. I don't see any stabilzation possible.

Unless you bust all those wax boxes you've been showing us and grade the good stuff
-- then we'd have a better baseline to work with. LOL

mygotta

<< <i>It's a moving target. I don't see any stabilzation possible.

Unless you bust all those wax boxes you've been showing us and grade the good stuff
-- then we'd have a better baseline to work with. LOL >>



LOL True. But that is kinda my point as well. Its reasonable to say if sealed packs of 1952 still exist out there, its reasonable to say in 50 years packs of 87 will still be available.

In theory, however, having a card graded puts the card in a fixed state so therefore is prone to a fixed price.

Estil

<< <i>I think we are seeing the late 80's early 90's kids who started collecting in the boom that have decent jobs now and are trying to get the cards they always wanted but had no shot at as a broke kid. >>



Count me as one of them. Why do you think I'm trying to get all those early/mid 90s insert sets (especially Fleer/Ultra)? Because when they first came out they were way, way out of my price range but now they are much more affordable yet are still challenging to collect them all.

Dpeck100

In theory, however, having a card graded puts the card in a fixed state so therefore is prone to a fixed price.

This statement blows my mind.

itzagoner

what are the "obvious" reasons?

NickM

<< <i>what are the "obvious" reasons? >>



I think he's talking about anything putting the card subject in the news.

Nick

Foo3112

I think he's talking about anything putting the card subject in the news.

Bingo

itzagoner

<< <i>

<< <i>what are the "obvious" reasons? >>



I think he's talking about anything putting the card subject in the news.

Nick >>



i was being coy. i don't believe the most obvious reason is "such as death".

i think death is one of factors which pervades logical and rational thinking in the short term after the news breaks and opportunists take advantage of that fact.

cpamike

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>what are the "obvious" reasons? >>



I think he's talking about anything putting the card subject in the news.

Nick >>



i was being coy. i don't believe the most obvious reason is "such as death".

i think death is one of factors which pervades logical and rational thinking in the short term after the news breaks and opportunists take advantage of that fact. >>



Can't argue with that logic. BTW, I'm not dead am I???

itzagoner

<< <i>BTW, I'm not dead am I??? >>



do you see any angels or clouds or harps anywhere?

cpamike

<< <i>

<< <i>BTW, I'm not dead am I??? >>



do you see any angels or clouds or harps anywhere?

>>



Crap!!!

Edited to add: Looking down, I guess it could be worse.

PSASAP

Pitchforks and unbearable heat? Wait, that could just be Arizona.

ludedude

Hall of fame induction.

MintMoondog

My understanding of the initial post goes beyond the obvious into the more subtle. Indeed, most card prices have remained remarkably stable over the past 5 years. Most of this has to do with the low number of exchanges. Those with high exchanges tend to be stars or rookie cards with their own market equilibrium.
Let me provide 2 important reasons for large price movements I have seen over the past 7 years of heavy collecting.

1. Setbreaks. These will often reset prices that needed adjusting due to low transaction numbers. Also, a good setbreak will bring in many casual as well as diehard collectors which will enable prices to be more fairly distinguished between low pop commons stars, and common cards.
2. Date of last sale. This is perhaps the most understated and overlooked reason for a sudden price spike. If it has been 3 years since a card in a particular grade has sold, the likelihood that 2 or more people have been searching and waiting for this card is dramatically increased (thus sniping war). What I have seen happen dozens of times is that a particular card that hasn't come up for auction in a long time will receive a surprising hammer price...then shortly after a 2nd or 3rd copy will "emerge" and the price will slowing decline. Sometimes back to the original price, but sometimes it will stabilize at a higher price based on simple demand/supply. As an exemplar, several 1975 mini low pop commons have been selling for between 600.00 to 1100.00 dollars! If people had these in high grade raw they would have been submitted, if they had them in plastic the price should have pried them away, however, for most of these a hammer price is achieved followed by crickets chirping. On the other hand, a 1975 mini George Brett recently sold for over 1100.00 (VCP had been around 480-550 I believe). A Brett in 9 hadn't been up for auction for a while...a few weeks later another 9 suddenly popped up and sold for 990ish, now a 3rd is up for auction now.

EDIT: on the mini thread I predicted that the fair market price for a mini Brett in 9 would stabilize at around 1000.00 sometime in the near future. This is based on a comparison of Pop and collectability of the Brett mini 9 versus that of the Schmidt rookie in a 9.
Look at the last 4 Schmidt sales: around 1800.00 received all sorts of attention as a major price spike, the next sold for 1300.00 shortly after. Then there were 2 sales in PWCC at 2000, and 1780. If these were too high then a few more people should have dumped their Schmidt rookies now while they are "hot" and hope to pick it back up later or just sell out. However, nothing after...so demand will build back up. In this circumstance, it is entirely possible that the price has restabilized around 1800-2000 from the previous 1000-1200.