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NHL Stanley Cup Finals Predictions
gosteelers
Posts: 2,668 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
I will go with Washington vs. Chicago...who do you have?
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gosteelers
Posts: 2,668 ✭✭✭
gosteelers
Posts: 2,668 ✭✭✭
gosteelers
Posts: 2,668 ✭✭✭
Comments
However, I'll go with the Rangers and the Blackhawks.
Rangers offense: -1.4 GVT (Rank: 16th in NHL)
Capitals defense: -11.5 GVT (Rank: 25th in NHL)
Capitals offense: 18.6 GVT (4th in NHL)
Rangers defense: 9.0 GVT (5th in NHL)
Rangers goaltending: 12.5 GVT (3rd in NHL)
Capitals goaltending: 6.5 GVT (Rank: 10th in NHL)
Rangers PP: -4.9 GVT (25th in NHL)
Capitals PK: -6.5 GVT (26th in NHL)
Capitals PP: 13.3 GVT (1st in NHL)
Rangers PK: 1.1 GVT (15th in NHL)
if the Rangers stay out of the box, Blue-shirts in 6 or 7.
one more time...
Yes, I know Detroit is a long shot, but hot 7 and 8 seeds occasionally win these things (see LA Kings).
The Bruins losing Ference and Redden might be the best thing for them, at least in this series, where their rookies' inexperience shouldn't haunt them too bad. Every game Bartkowski plays, it becomes more obvious he can really move the puck. Suddenly, despite watching Jagr skate like he has a piano strapped to his back, I'm pretty happy the B's didn't get Iginla.
<< <i>um, I'd like change my prediction of the Rangers in the finals.....man, that team is offensively challenged.
The Bruins losing Ference and Redden might be the best thing for them, at least in this series, where their rookies' inexperience shouldn't haunt them too bad. Every game Bartkowski plays, it becomes more obvious he can really move the puck. Suddenly, despite watching Jagr skate like he has a piano strapped to his back, I'm pretty happy the B's didn't get Iginla. >>
I wouldn't bail yet. Your B's are just as offensively challenged and that Chara goal was a softy as was the second goal. Hank will tighten that up.
Rangers offense: -1.4 GVT (Rank: 16th in NHL)
Bruins offense: -0.4 GVT (Rank: 14th in NHL)
Rangers defense: +9.0 GVT (Rank: 5th in NHL)
Bruins defense: +7.0 GVT (Rank: 8th in NHL)
Rangers PP -4.9 GVT (Rank: 25th in NHL)
Bruins PP -3.9 GVT (Rank: 20th in NHL)
Rangers goaltending: +12.5 GVT (Rank: 3rd in NHL)
Bruins goaltending: +14.8 GVT (Rank: 2nd in NHL)
pretty evenly matched. Conference Finals is where it will get interesting. Penguins have a wealth of offensive firepower, but their collective blueline. save for Orpik, is just as much of a fire-drill as Detroit...and the goaltending is capable of the same...though Vokoun is much more anchored than Fleury.
<< <i>if the playoffs are officiated the same as they've been the last two years, it's going to be tough sledding for the Caps, Pens, and Hawks. Though the lack of penalty calls might actually help the Penguins because their penalty kill is awful (25th). The Bruins won a cup based largely on one d-pair, great goal-tending, and no calls. Largely the same for LA last year. By no calls I mean any puck carrier that is under the circles can be shoved down, interfered with, obstructed, or cross-checked to the point of the opposition suffering cracked vertebrae sans penalty.
I see you have not changed with your crap.
Except he's right on this one.
As best I can tell, penalties are actually down from last year. The Capitals are out and the Hawks suddenly look vulnerable, which was unthinkable at the start of the series. The Pens series largely hinges on Game 4, and Ottawa has been the best 5-on-5 team in the playoffs so far this year...if Ottawa wins, they could easily steal the series (although if Bettman has any David Stern in him, he'll instruct the referees to slant the calls in Pittsburgh's favor).
<< <i><<<I see you have not changed with your crap>>>
Except he's right on this one.
As best I can tell, penalties are actually down from last year. The Capitals are out and the Hawks suddenly look vulnerable, which was unthinkable at the start of the series. The Pens series largely hinges on Game 4, and Ottawa has been the best 5-on-5 team in the playoffs so far this year...if Ottawa wins, they could easily steal the series (although if Bettman has any David Stern in him, he'll instruct the referees to slant the calls in Pittsburgh's favor). >>
penalties have been down across the board dating back to the 04-05 lockout. You may recall after said lockout the refs went out of their way to tag the obstructing/hooking/mauling around the crease. That's gone.
05-06 - a combined average of 5.8 penalties called per game
12-13 - a combined average of 2.1 penalties called per game
consequently goals per game are down by a half goal and the average save% is up 0.14%. 2003-04 34% of all goals scored were scored on the PP. 2013- around 19%. The mass obstruction has been back for 3 years. The current Red Wings are now on board as well. Zetterleto on every single 1 on 1 match-up could conceivably be tagged with obstruction. Phoenix's defense in the Tippett era has been a blinking neon warning arrow for obstruction. So with the over-coaching that goes on these days, the gum-up-the-middle defensive systems keeping everything to the perimeter, turning goaltending into a science of playing angles and minimizing prime scoring chances, blocked shots, and the pre-04 lockout level of obstruction/interference the game is all about even strength goals and non-calls....or like last night, phantom goalie interference calls. That's why teams like the Kings, Rangers, and Bruins have the advantage. They each possess the current playoff formula in a great goalie, one lockdown d-pair, a top 6 who are responsible defensively, and of course are no strangers to rampant obstruction/interference. Just look at Nashville (prior to this season) Rinne + Weber + Suter + obstruction + hyper aggressive forecheck - a team with all the offensive punch of a possum on anti-depressants = playoff team. It's what unfortunately often makes playoff hockey have all the raw thrills of a cup of chamomile tea served at room temperature when you separate the on ice performance from the atmosphere. Pre-04 lockout at least there were some calls being made to go along with the trapping. Now it's just circumventing the neutral zone trap with a 1-3-1 or 1-2-2 or 2-1-2 obstruction sludge-fest.
Not if you're a Bruins fan!
In all seriousness, other than the first 30 minutes of Game 1, which were atrocious, I think the series has been pretty entertaining, but I might be biased. There has been some great goaltending on both sides at various points in this series. For a long time, it looked like Hank was going to steal one last night. I think Dave Strader makes it tough to watch.
<< <i><<<This Rangers/Bruins series is all but unwatchable.>>>
Not if you're a Bruins fan!
In all seriousness, other than the first 30 minutes of Game 1, which were atrocious, I think the series has been pretty entertaining, but I might be biased. There has been some great goaltending on both sides at various points in this series. For a long time, it looked like Hank was going to steal one last night. I think Dave Strader makes it tough to watch. >>
I completely get that. The Wings are fairly unwatchable too, so I know what it's like to get sucked in to substandard hockey.
For me, the Kings/Sharks is the most boring of these series right now.
<< <i>Yeah, but the Wings have Datsyuk, and he could pull off something special at any time...that alone makes them worth watching.
For me, the Kings/Sharks is the most boring of these series right now. >>
normally, and Datsyuk had the nice Sakician wrister in Game 3, but Bolland has been shutting him down for the most part. He's been his usual great self in his own end, but was pretty much a ghost in the offensive end in the first two games.
Kings/Sharks has been much more entertaining than Bruins/Rangers. It's been more entertaining than Wings/Hawks for that matter. Thornton has been fantastic. Easily the best player of round 2 thus far. If memory serves he's been on the ice for 6 of SJ's 7 goals. I believe that's above average. I suppose if I were a Bruin fan I'd think it's entertaining, but Bruins/Rangers is pretty much just a war of attrition to see who can bang home more rebounds or accrue more slop goals from deflections, screens, or tips and isn't as testy as one would think. Bad news for you in Game 4, however. Brad Richards is reportedly getting scratched. Thus the B's will have to find someone else to pylon...
<< <i>San Jose beats Pittsburg in 5. >>
I'm amazed at how strong the Sharks are looking. At this point your prediction wouldn't surprise me at all.
LET'S GO WINGS!!!
collecting RAW Topps baseball cards 1952 Highs to 1972. looking for collector grade (somewhere between psa 4-7 condition). let me know what you have, I'll take it, I want to finish sets, I must have something you can use for trade.
looking for Topps 71-72 hi's-62-53-54-55-59, I have these sets started
<< <i>Wow, imagine that- Jumbo Joe goes 0-0 and -2 in a crucial game 5. Haven't seen that before. >>
as opposed to the -3 +/-, -4 CORSI, and 40% at the dot Couture rolled out. Thornton was at least +1/+1 CORSI/Fenwick and 69% at the dot on the night with a defenseman riding shotgun on his wing. Thornton's main opposition (Mike Richards) had nothing more than a secondary assist, and I'm pretty sure Thornton wasn't matched up on Voynov on his goal (that would be a winger defending that shot). Thornton wasn't the problem. The Couture line was garbage.
Round 2
Thornton: +35 Fenwick / +44 CORSI (the kids call that dominant)
Zetterleto: -30 Fenwick / -39 CORSI
<< <i>
<< <i>Wow, imagine that- Jumbo Joe goes 0-0 and -2 in a crucial game 5. Haven't seen that before. >>
as opposed to the -3 +/-, -4 CORSI, and 40% at the dot Couture rolled out. Thornton was at least +1/+1 CORSI/Fenwick and 69% at the dot on the night with a defenseman riding shotgun on his wing. Thornton's main opposition (Mike Richards) had nothing more than a secondary assist, and I'm pretty sure Thornton wasn't matched up on Voynov on his goal (that would be a winger defending that shot). Thornton wasn't the problem. The Couture line was garbage.
Round 2
Thornton: +35 Fenwick / +44 CORSI (the kids call that dominant)
Zetterleto: -30 Fenwick / -39 CORSI >>
Who is Zetterleto, and why is he being introduced in a discussion about Joe Thornton? Also, what makes you so sure that CORSI or Fenwick is an accurate gauge of a player's marginal contribution to his team's performance?
<< <i>Wow, imagine that- Jumbo Joe goes 0-0 and -2 in a crucial game 5. Haven't seen that before. >>
You must have been watching Patricia....
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Wow, imagine that- Jumbo Joe goes 0-0 and -2 in a crucial game 5. Haven't seen that before. >>
as opposed to the -3 +/-, -4 CORSI, and 40% at the dot Couture rolled out. Thornton was at least +1/+1 CORSI/Fenwick and 69% at the dot on the night with a defenseman riding shotgun on his wing. Thornton's main opposition (Mike Richards) had nothing more than a secondary assist, and I'm pretty sure Thornton wasn't matched up on Voynov on his goal (that would be a winger defending that shot). Thornton wasn't the problem. The Couture line was garbage.
Round 2
Thornton: +35 Fenwick / +44 CORSI (the kids call that dominant)
Zetterleto: -30 Fenwick / -39 CORSI >>
Who is Zetterleto, and why is he being introduced in a discussion about Joe Thornton? Also, what makes you so sure that CORSI or Fenwick is an accurate gauge of a player's marginal contribution to his team's performance? >>
The first part is as obvious to you as it is to me. As for the second part, what would you prefer to gauge a player's 'marginal contribution'? Shot percentage and basic +/- ? Shot percentage actually equates pretty evenly to Fenwick totals....something like 0.4% correlation. In the most simplest terms, CORSI and Fenwick are the strongest possession indicators. I assume you're aware puck possession strongly correlates to winning. If not
Round 2 Swedish Elite Red Wings Corsi leaders
1. J. Andersson +8
2. Nyquist +3
Brunner +3
Round 2 Swedish Elite Red Wings Fenwick leaders
1. Brunner +6
2. J. Andersson +4
3. Nyquist +3
coincidentally that 3rd line has magically accumulated 4 of Detroit's 10 goals and 6 of their assists. Along with Howard, two badly blown calls, the forunate-ness of 10-12 post shots, Detroit's 3rd line is reason they're leading this series.
by team Fenwick leaders
07-08 - Red Wings - 58.8 - result: Cup
08-09 - Red Wings - 56.6 - result: Cup Finals
09-10 - Blackhawks - 58.9 - result: Cup
10-11 - Canucks - 56.6 - result: Cup Finals
11-12 - Kings - 57.5 - result: Cup
12-13 - Kings - 57.7 - result: ?
2013 Corsi team leaders (even strength per/60)
1. Chicago
2. Pittsburgh
3. Anaheim
4. Montreal
5. Boston
6. Rangers
7. Washington
8. Detroit
9. Ottawa
10 LA
11. Vancouver
12. Toronto
13. Detroit Jr (St Louis)
14. Islanders
15. Columbus
16. SJ
what do you know....all playoff teams save for the Jackets who were edged out in the final game.
Who were the top 25 individual players in CORSI in the regular season? That might be an illustrative list to post.
To Boo's point, though...just because Brad Marchand is 12 spots higher in Corsi than Sidney Crosby for the regular season, doesn't mean he's the better player. Also, Marchand basically sleepwalked through the first 6 games vs. Toronto, yet somehow is #2 in Corsi in the playoffs, and Dougie Hamilton is #10, even though he's been on the ice for many of the opposition goals, so I'm starting to wonder how valuable of a stat it is on an individual level.
1. Justin Williams (probably not who one might expect, but he's been a possession entity for years. Easily the most undervalued forward in the NHL)
2. P. Bergeron
3. Kopitar
4. Toews
5. D. Sedin
6. H. Sedin
7. Malkin
8. Crosby
9. Kunitz
10. Eberle
11. T. Hall
12. Pacioretty
13. Parise
14. Hossa
15. Seguin
16. Voracek
17. Clarkson
18. Elias
19. Nugent-Hopkins
20. M. Koivu
21. Neal
22. Subban
23. Nash
24. Thornton
25. D. Brown
32. Datsyuk
49. Zetterleto
One might dispute some of the guys, or the order, in the 10-20 range but for the most part they are what they are. The young Oilers somewhat surprise, and without looking it up I suspect they likely get the Sedin offensive zone sheltering treatment. Otherwise, if you use possession stats along with the eye test this shouldn't be all that surprising. And sure just like WAR or VORP in baseball, every stat looks better with a season of sample sizes over one game, but in this case it's the best current method (and in it's most basic form, a relatively simple one) to gauge possession which more than any other qualifier leads to goals and winning.
I'm sure there is plenty of evidence to the contrary, but the last two series I can recall where the home team won the first 6 games (Bruins 2011 Cup Final, Rangers 1st rd this year), the road team has won Game 7.
<< <i>yes, I did use basic on-ice Corsi....your list is definitely more representative of who I feel the top players are than the one I looked at.
I'm sure there is plenty of evidence to the contrary, but the last two series I can recall where the home team won the first 6 games (Bruins 2011 Cup Final, Rangers 1st rd this year), the road team has won Game 7. >>
it isn't that a given player is necessarily better overall. I mean no one is going to tag J.Williams as being better at hockey than any of those other guys....or someone who isn't on that list such as the best passer in the league, and a better finisher (and skater) than Williams in Patrick Kane, it's just an identifier for players who typically control play and the offense a given player is creating as opposed to allowing either over a season, series, or at a single game level. I believe Chara was #31 and if Subban and Chara were both say 25 years old, I'm guessing you'll stick with Chara...unless you're into watching defensemen roam like they're on some outback walkabout Nick Kronwall style.
I"m assuming the Thornton/Zetterberg comparison was simple on-ice CORSI. Correct?
nope...same as the aforementioned measure.
<< <i>Big game 7 tonight in the California series. >>
Should be a helluva game, game 7s always are.
Somehow, after last night, I think he'll be a little more valued!
<< <i>
<< <i>yes, I did use basic on-ice Corsi....your list is definitely more representative of who I feel the top players are than the one I looked at.
I'm sure there is plenty of evidence to the contrary, but the last two series I can recall where the home team won the first 6 games (Bruins 2011 Cup Final, Rangers 1st rd this year), the road team has won Game 7. >>
it isn't that a given player is necessarily better overall. I mean no one is going to tag J.Williams as being better at hockey than any of those other guys....or someone who isn't on that list such as the best passer in the league, and a better finisher (and skater) than Williams in Patrick Kane, it's just an identifier for players who typically control play and the offense a given player is creating as opposed to allowing either over a season, series, or at a single game level. I believe Chara was #31 and if Subban and Chara were both say 25 years old, I'm guessing you'll stick with Chara...unless you're into watching defensemen roam like they're on some outback walkabout Nick Kronwall style.
I"m assuming the Thornton/Zetterberg comparison was simple on-ice CORSI. Correct?
nope...same as the aforementioned measure. >>
Where do you find these adjusted CORSI statistics? I'd like to play around with them.
<< <i> Let's go Red Wings! >>
The Red Wings can go get their golf clubs.
<< <i>
<< <i> Let's go Red Wings! >>
The Red Wings can go get their golf clubs.
That's probably the end result. Though as a Wings fan I'm fairly impressed that they made it even this far, given their dodgy blueline.
Time to dump the mule and Filpulla and start the Dekeyser years! Good luck hawks, hope any team other than Pittsburg wins.
<< <i>Great game, best team won...
Time to dump the mule and Filpulla and start the Dekeyser years! Good luck hawks, hope any team other than Pittsburg wins. >>
Agreed- the best team won. And I think I'm going to have to pull for the 'Hawks as well, even if half their fan base thinks Stan Mikita invented the circular saw.
<< <i>
<< <i>Great game, best team won...
Time to dump the mule and Filpulla and start the Dekeyser years! Good luck hawks, hope any team other than Pittsburg wins. >>
Agreed- the best team won. And I think I'm going to have to pull for the 'Hawks as well, even if half their fan base thinks Stan Mikita invented the circular saw. >>
as opposed to those hardcore Wing fans (Game 6: appx 15 seconds before Brunner scored the third goal to draw to a one goal deficit).
in fairness they probably were in a hurry to beat a path back to Deerborn in order to bombard social media with how the refs/NHL/Bettman Oliver Stoned the franchise.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Great game, best team won...
Time to dump the mule and Filpulla and start the Dekeyser years! Good luck hawks, hope any team other than Pittsburg wins. >>
Agreed- the best team won. And I think I'm going to have to pull for the 'Hawks as well, even if half their fan base thinks Stan Mikita invented the circular saw. >>
as opposed to those hardcore Wing fans (Game 6: appx 15 seconds before Brunner scored the third goal to draw to a one goal deficit).
in fairness they probably were in a hurry to beat a path back to Deerborn in order to bombard social media with how the refs/NHL/Bettman Oliver Stoned the franchise. >>
Ha! Just trolling you.
You'd make a great straight man.
wut?
<< <i>Ha! Just trolling you.
wut?
I think just about every Wing fan is pretty pleased with this team's ability to take a 1 seed to a game seven in the second round. Blow the dust off the Calloways, boys- you've earned a break.