Relative Rarity of PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Mint State and Proof Lincoln Cents (An Analysis)
WingedLiberty1957
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Relative Rarity of PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Mint State and Proof Lincoln Cents (An Analysis)
Lincoln Cents are still one of the more popular series for collectors; and since there are a fair number of collectors that are interested in colorfully toned coins, and the most colorful coins typically fall into the Brown (BN) color category, I thought I would analyze some of the PCGS population reports to see how rare (or common) PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Lincolns are for five of the major subsets: Memorial Business Strikes, Memorial SMS, Memorial Proofs, Wheat Business Strikes, and Wheat Proofs.
Super Rarities:
First the Super Rarities. Memorial Proof BN and Memorial SMS BN Lincolns are by far the rarest in relation to the total number of slabbed Lincolns in those categories. There are only 10 BN SMS Lincolns (TOTAL!) in PCGS slabs (currently) and only 89 (TOTAL!) BN Proof Memorial Lincolns in PCGS slabs (currently). I was blown away by these numbers. When you compare those numbers with the total number of slabbed Mint State and Proof Lincolns, you get a ratio of only 0.2% or roughly 2 BN coins for every 1000 graded. The rarity of BN slabbed coins in these two categories is easily understandable since both were sealed in mint cello, which tended to inhibit toning, so it makes intuitive sense that approximately 99.8% of all Proof and SMS Memorials in PCGS slabs are Red (RD) or Red-Brown (RB).
Memorial SMS = 10 BNs / 4,548 Total = 0.002 = 0.2% (~2 out of every 1000)
Memorial PRF = 89 BNs / 41,875 Total = 0.002 = 0.2% (~2 out of every 1000)
Here is an example of a PCGS SP66BN 1966 SMS Lincoln, that I bought last year. There are only 2 cataloged SMS BN's in the year 1966 and this one is the highest graded.
This is the only known BN Lincoln Proof from the year 1975 (PCGS PR65BN), I bought this monster in Oct 2011. Most years after about 1969 have Proof BN populations of 0 or 1.
A Bit Rare (By Accident?):
For these next two categories: Memorial Business Strikes and Wheat Proofs, the total number of PCGS-slabbed coins jumps into the hundreds (926 total slabbed Memorial Biz Strike BNs and 747 total slabbed Wheat Proof BNs. Still a surprisingly low number. Whenever you can corner a market by buying fewer than 1000 coins, you have a fairly good rarity. The ratio of BN coins in these two categories are only 1.9% for Memorial Biz Strikes and 2.4% for wheatbacked Proofs. The low number for Memorial Business Strikes might be somewhat accidental since there are few Memorial Biz Strikes rare enough to warrant slabbing. Or should I say, few collectors willing to spend the money to slab a Memorial Business Strike! For wheatbacked Proofs, the number of BN's being nearly 10 times more common than Memorial BN Proofs is understandable since they are so much older and had more time to tone. Add to that many more of these older wheatbacked proofs were set free early on from the original mint envelopes and more were therefore subject to changing environmental conditions which accelerated the toning process.
Memorial BIZ = 926 BNs / 49,175 Total = 0.019 = 1.9% (~19 out of every 1000)
Amazingly I could not find a single example of a PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Mint-State Memorial Lincoln Cent. There were none that I could find on CoinFacts either. There are 926 of these rarities cataloged by PCGS so they do exist! But good luck trying to locate an example. I think I recall seeing an example on eBay about a year ago -- they are few and far between!
Still Rare:
PCGS-slabbed BN Wheatbacked Proof Lincolns are still fairly rare in the scheme of things with only 747 known to exist at this time.
Wheat PRF = 747 BNs / 30,744 Total = 0.024 = 2.4% (~24 out of every 1000)
Here is an example of a PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) 1914 Matte Proof Lincoln (PCGS PR66BN). Interestingly, the rarity of the BN's is almost opposite of what you might expect. Most (88%) of the 747 cataloged wheatbacked Proof BN's are in the Matte Proof Lincoln years of 1909 to 1916. This is due in part to the sheer age of these coin and the fact that the mint wrapped these in sulfur-laden tissue paper when being shipped out and this caused accelerated toning on many examples. In the year 1914, there are a full 70 known PCGS-slabbed BN Proofs. And when you sum up all of the BN's in the Matte Proof Lincoln years (1909 to 1916) you get 654 BN's, which accounts for nearly 88% of all the known BN Proofs in the wheatbacked era! That leaves only 93 BN Proofs to be spread amongst the years from 1936 through 1958. Once again the pattern persists of the later years are RARER in the BN color class than the earlier years. Many of the years in the 1950's show a population of BN coins of 0, 1, or 2. It really leads to some interesting scenerios. A PCGS slabbed BN Proof Lincoln dated 1958 (population 1) is 70 times rarer than a PCGS-slabbed BN Proof Lincoln dated 1914 (population 70). Who would have thunk it! Of course you have to keep in the back of your mind that many more Matte Proof Lincolns were sent in for slabbing due to their value, and there could be at least a few BN Proof Lincolns from the later years that are sitting out there in the market place raw.
Here is a somewhat rare BN Proof Lincoln from the year 1941 (population 4). Once again the BN colored Proofs dated 1936 and beyond are quite a bit more rare than the earlier Matte Proofs in that color class.
Not Quite As Rare:
Finally for Wheatbacked Business Strikes, I had to delete the number of BN slabbed Lincolns (in the census report) in less than MS60 condition since I was only interested in tracking Brown (BN) Mint State (MS) and Proof (PR) coins. For this category there are over 12,000 slabbed BN Mint State Lincolns, by far the highest number of BN's in any of these subclasses. However the total population of slabbed coins also exploded to over 1/4 million -- so the ratio is still a low 4.8%. I think the combination of cardboard-holder Mint Set toning in the late 1940's to late 1950's and the sheer age of some of these coins added to the larger numbers of BN's. Still an occurrence percentage of only 4.8% is low.
Wheat BIZ = 12,479 BNs / 261,691 Total = 0.048 = 4.8% (~48 out of every 1000)
Here is one of only two known PCGS-slabbed BN Wheatbacked Lincolns that made the lofty grade of MS67. There are only two of these PCGS MS67BN monsters known at this time. I bought this coin as an NGC MS67 star BN back in 2011, and it crossed to PCGS MS67BN in 2012.
Upshot:
I find it amazing that there are only 10 PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Memorial SMS coins known to man, and only 89 PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Memorial Proofs! These numbers I find shockingly low. And the numbers for Memorial Biz Strikes and Wheatbacked Proofs are also quite low with only 926 and 747, respectively, known to exist at this time. Finally for PCGS-slabbed BN Business Strike wheatbacks, the counts increase to a respectable 12,479, however the percentage of BN's to (RB's+RD's) is still a relatively low 4.8%. Something to think about next time you stumble across a PCGS-graded BN Lincoln Cent, especially if they pop a bit of color! These things are rarer than you think.
Lincoln Cents are still one of the more popular series for collectors; and since there are a fair number of collectors that are interested in colorfully toned coins, and the most colorful coins typically fall into the Brown (BN) color category, I thought I would analyze some of the PCGS population reports to see how rare (or common) PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Lincolns are for five of the major subsets: Memorial Business Strikes, Memorial SMS, Memorial Proofs, Wheat Business Strikes, and Wheat Proofs.
Super Rarities:
First the Super Rarities. Memorial Proof BN and Memorial SMS BN Lincolns are by far the rarest in relation to the total number of slabbed Lincolns in those categories. There are only 10 BN SMS Lincolns (TOTAL!) in PCGS slabs (currently) and only 89 (TOTAL!) BN Proof Memorial Lincolns in PCGS slabs (currently). I was blown away by these numbers. When you compare those numbers with the total number of slabbed Mint State and Proof Lincolns, you get a ratio of only 0.2% or roughly 2 BN coins for every 1000 graded. The rarity of BN slabbed coins in these two categories is easily understandable since both were sealed in mint cello, which tended to inhibit toning, so it makes intuitive sense that approximately 99.8% of all Proof and SMS Memorials in PCGS slabs are Red (RD) or Red-Brown (RB).
Memorial SMS = 10 BNs / 4,548 Total = 0.002 = 0.2% (~2 out of every 1000)
Memorial PRF = 89 BNs / 41,875 Total = 0.002 = 0.2% (~2 out of every 1000)
Here is an example of a PCGS SP66BN 1966 SMS Lincoln, that I bought last year. There are only 2 cataloged SMS BN's in the year 1966 and this one is the highest graded.
This is the only known BN Lincoln Proof from the year 1975 (PCGS PR65BN), I bought this monster in Oct 2011. Most years after about 1969 have Proof BN populations of 0 or 1.
A Bit Rare (By Accident?):
For these next two categories: Memorial Business Strikes and Wheat Proofs, the total number of PCGS-slabbed coins jumps into the hundreds (926 total slabbed Memorial Biz Strike BNs and 747 total slabbed Wheat Proof BNs. Still a surprisingly low number. Whenever you can corner a market by buying fewer than 1000 coins, you have a fairly good rarity. The ratio of BN coins in these two categories are only 1.9% for Memorial Biz Strikes and 2.4% for wheatbacked Proofs. The low number for Memorial Business Strikes might be somewhat accidental since there are few Memorial Biz Strikes rare enough to warrant slabbing. Or should I say, few collectors willing to spend the money to slab a Memorial Business Strike! For wheatbacked Proofs, the number of BN's being nearly 10 times more common than Memorial BN Proofs is understandable since they are so much older and had more time to tone. Add to that many more of these older wheatbacked proofs were set free early on from the original mint envelopes and more were therefore subject to changing environmental conditions which accelerated the toning process.
Memorial BIZ = 926 BNs / 49,175 Total = 0.019 = 1.9% (~19 out of every 1000)
Amazingly I could not find a single example of a PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Mint-State Memorial Lincoln Cent. There were none that I could find on CoinFacts either. There are 926 of these rarities cataloged by PCGS so they do exist! But good luck trying to locate an example. I think I recall seeing an example on eBay about a year ago -- they are few and far between!
Still Rare:
PCGS-slabbed BN Wheatbacked Proof Lincolns are still fairly rare in the scheme of things with only 747 known to exist at this time.
Wheat PRF = 747 BNs / 30,744 Total = 0.024 = 2.4% (~24 out of every 1000)
Here is an example of a PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) 1914 Matte Proof Lincoln (PCGS PR66BN). Interestingly, the rarity of the BN's is almost opposite of what you might expect. Most (88%) of the 747 cataloged wheatbacked Proof BN's are in the Matte Proof Lincoln years of 1909 to 1916. This is due in part to the sheer age of these coin and the fact that the mint wrapped these in sulfur-laden tissue paper when being shipped out and this caused accelerated toning on many examples. In the year 1914, there are a full 70 known PCGS-slabbed BN Proofs. And when you sum up all of the BN's in the Matte Proof Lincoln years (1909 to 1916) you get 654 BN's, which accounts for nearly 88% of all the known BN Proofs in the wheatbacked era! That leaves only 93 BN Proofs to be spread amongst the years from 1936 through 1958. Once again the pattern persists of the later years are RARER in the BN color class than the earlier years. Many of the years in the 1950's show a population of BN coins of 0, 1, or 2. It really leads to some interesting scenerios. A PCGS slabbed BN Proof Lincoln dated 1958 (population 1) is 70 times rarer than a PCGS-slabbed BN Proof Lincoln dated 1914 (population 70). Who would have thunk it! Of course you have to keep in the back of your mind that many more Matte Proof Lincolns were sent in for slabbing due to their value, and there could be at least a few BN Proof Lincolns from the later years that are sitting out there in the market place raw.
Here is a somewhat rare BN Proof Lincoln from the year 1941 (population 4). Once again the BN colored Proofs dated 1936 and beyond are quite a bit more rare than the earlier Matte Proofs in that color class.
Not Quite As Rare:
Finally for Wheatbacked Business Strikes, I had to delete the number of BN slabbed Lincolns (in the census report) in less than MS60 condition since I was only interested in tracking Brown (BN) Mint State (MS) and Proof (PR) coins. For this category there are over 12,000 slabbed BN Mint State Lincolns, by far the highest number of BN's in any of these subclasses. However the total population of slabbed coins also exploded to over 1/4 million -- so the ratio is still a low 4.8%. I think the combination of cardboard-holder Mint Set toning in the late 1940's to late 1950's and the sheer age of some of these coins added to the larger numbers of BN's. Still an occurrence percentage of only 4.8% is low.
Wheat BIZ = 12,479 BNs / 261,691 Total = 0.048 = 4.8% (~48 out of every 1000)
Here is one of only two known PCGS-slabbed BN Wheatbacked Lincolns that made the lofty grade of MS67. There are only two of these PCGS MS67BN monsters known at this time. I bought this coin as an NGC MS67 star BN back in 2011, and it crossed to PCGS MS67BN in 2012.
Upshot:
I find it amazing that there are only 10 PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Memorial SMS coins known to man, and only 89 PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Memorial Proofs! These numbers I find shockingly low. And the numbers for Memorial Biz Strikes and Wheatbacked Proofs are also quite low with only 926 and 747, respectively, known to exist at this time. Finally for PCGS-slabbed BN Business Strike wheatbacks, the counts increase to a respectable 12,479, however the percentage of BN's to (RB's+RD's) is still a relatively low 4.8%. Something to think about next time you stumble across a PCGS-graded BN Lincoln Cent, especially if they pop a bit of color! These things are rarer than you think.
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My Collection of Old Holders
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Amazingly I could not find a single example of a PCGS-slabbed Brown (BN) Mint-State Memorial Lincoln Cent. There were none that I could find on CoinFacts either.
MS 63 BRN Serial Number 27491914