Asset allocation question
Baley
Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
it's earnings season, and tax season, and spring break, and I'm making money in every sector I'm participating in these past 2 years, EXCEPT PRECIOUS METALS, which have been flat to down for 2 years.
Is this a sign we should be selling stocks, my bonds, real estate, numismatic coins, other business enterprises, and buy gold, silver, and platinum bullion?
Is this a sign we should be selling stocks, my bonds, real estate, numismatic coins, other business enterprises, and buy gold, silver, and platinum bullion?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Stick with the equities. Oh, and pick up some Bitcoin. >>
Why, are they hot Hot HOT like metals were TWO YEARS AGO?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I wouldn't change everything at once, no matter what is making money at the moment. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
But, I'm still not buying any paper assets now.
I knew it would happen.
I have all my fiat in Beanie Babies, copper cents (Pre-1982) and Magic the Gathering cards
Ray
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
That's a worthy byline, especially for this forum.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Stick with the equities. Oh, and pick up some Bitcoin. >>
At $233 each, 7 bitcoins > 1 oz. gold.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Not that it may not be a bad investment....
Throughout my adult life, when the stock market gets high, then higher, then breaks the records, we start to hear
words like correction.... When that happens maybe metal will get a boost.
PMs could have tanked far far worst.. The bloated pig may have puked a bit. Lets hope he starts feeling better.
-Isn't it all a ponzi scheme underneath... and you juggle where you are at in it..
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>"bitcoin" is dutch for tulip >>
<< <i>for posting thought provoking questions about Precious Metals.
It's just that it's earnings season, and tax season, and spring break, and I'm making money in every sector I'm participating in these past 2 years, EXCEPT PRECIOUS METALS, which have been flat to down for 2 years.
Is this a sign I should be selling my stocks, my bonds, my real estate, and my numismatic coins, my craft brewing situation, my other business enterprises, and buy gold, silver, and platinum bullion? >>
Gold has been in a correction for 19 months. With that same logic it's about positioned as it was in July 1976. The stock market had been rallying hard for 19 months near all time highs. So was July 1976 the time to finally bail out on any remaining PM investments and go all-in on stocks? For those trading the markets at that time I'm sure the talk was that
the stock market was going to continue to blastoff well above Dow 1,000 while PMs were dead forever.
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/USDJIND1950.gif ..............1970's Dow.
http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/GC1976btm.gif ............1970's gold.
Is this a sign I should be selling my stocks, my bonds, my real estate, and my numismatic coins, my craft brewing situation, my other business enterprises, and buy gold, silver, and platinum bullion?
Heh, weren't you the guy who is a proponent of portfolio re-balancing? You should be doing exactly as you suggest.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>For those trading the markets at that time I'm sure the talk was that
the stock market was going to continue to blastoff well above Dow 1,000 while PMs were dead forever.
>>
Couldn't open your link, but I'm guessing what you're saying is that with DOW at > 14,000, the stock market over the past 40 years has wildly outperformed precious metals.
Heh, weren't you the guy who is a proponent of portfolio re-balancing? You should be doing exactly as you suggest.
That's why I'm trying to get viewpoints; it was a serious question. I do follow an asset allocation model, and it is getting to be time to trim some winners and allocate the capital to the (relative) losers
But if gold and silver are going to keep going lower (the charts do NOT look healthy to me) then I'd rather not buy them now (obviously)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Diversify, diversify, diversify.
10 Reasons why you should sell your silver and invest in Zimbabwe currency
But if gold and silver are going to keep going lower (the charts do NOT look healthy to me) then I'd rather not buy them now (obviously)
The models only work in retrospect, and you have to follow them somewhat in order for them to work. The reason you'd rather not buy the metals now is the same exact reason that they are not looking attractive - they are heading lower (supposedly).
I use a different model, the cost-averaging method. I'd rather not buy them now except for a couple of points - 1) cost averaging only works well if you actually practice it, and 2) buying is nice (in retrospect) when the price is lower.
Chart watching is the same as reading a history book. There are certain truisms that can be learned, but the past doesn't predict the exact future. Sometimes, you gotta think it through as well.
In my own case, I think that too much imaginary money is being created to pay off greedy banker's gambling debts and being stuck onto taxpayers. I also think that the world trends in global trade are running cross-current to our best interests and we aren't exactly playing it smart. I don't expect my opinion to be popular with mainstream stock market investors.
Since there is more of them than there are people who think like me, I expect alot of gnashing of teeth before my metals realize their full potential. To put it succinctly, I think that I am right and that they are dead wrong - and that fundamentals are the reality, not money creation.
I knew it would happen.
Metalnut
Posts: 16578
Joined: Aug 2006
Tuesday April 09, 2013 1:07 PM (NEW!)
Stick with the equities. Oh, and pick up some Bitcoin.
Turns out that was real good advice, thanks!
held on and then turned it into gold
thanks again, useful commentary in the thread
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>it's earnings season, and tax season, and spring break, and I'm making money in every sector I'm participating in these past 2 years, EXCEPT PRECIOUS METALS, which have been flat to down for 2 years.
Is this a sign we should be selling stocks, my bonds, real estate, numismatic coins, other business enterprises, and buy gold, silver, and platinum bullion? >>
It depends on how much you have allocated to each asset and how much risk your willing to take.........follow the simple maxim in asset allocation....rebalance, rebalance, rebalance.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Has it already started?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yes, it's been 2 more years of declining metals prices. Correct.
how about now? are metals ready to rebound,
I don't know, but I'm getting ready to pull the trigger on a purchase. I'm just trying to decide which option to take.
and the other stuff to crash?
I don't know about the other stuff. It could all crash and bring metals prices down along with it, or it could keep muddling through as long as the Fed doesn't get too frisky.
Or.........the other stuff could indeed crash and spook a rush into the metals, depending on the effectiveness of the media spin at the time. Your thoughts?
I knew it would happen.