" A theory that the weaker yen would drive money market investors to other currencies has not really panned out, and so fears that those investors may move to monetary metals is one motive for attempting to undermine the safe haven status of precious metals. . . Central banks are terrified that a strongly responsive gold price correlation to capital fabrication levels could trigger a destabilization of confidence in their fiat currencies." >>
First this is a link from a gold newsletter. Perhaps just a little biased? They wouldnt want to promote their fund or keep investors in their fund, would they?
Evidence of buying can be seen in the US equity market as stock prices have increased at the same time treasuries have increased. This shows money going into both bonds and stocks at the same time. This is new money coming into treasuries, not a rotation from equities to bonds. So the new money either comes from the Japanese or the PM markets.
Talked to my bullion dealer tonight for an hour about bullion and the rare coin market. He mentioned that the attendance at last Sunday's coin show was huge as everyone came out to see what was available in cheap bullion. I guess there really wasn't any. He didn't do any additional business. Coin sales to the public are still weak. He basically has to wholesale all his bullion and rare coins since the collector is not paying the premiums that dealers will. Big bullion dealers like Rarcoa and Heritage had their bids pulled early last week so it was very difficult to know what physical or collectible gold was actually trading for. Circ Morgans still bringing strong prices. He also mentioned that by the end of the week he hadn't seen any sellers of physical gold and silver....nor any potential buyers either. Most everyone waiting and watching. Said if he ran across any cheap proof 1 oz gold eagles or buffs at these new lower levels to give me a call. He picked up a common date S mint Morgan that he said was the finest single silver dollar he has ever seen. And considering he's been playing with silver dollars since he bought 3 full GSA sets in the early 1970's he knows his stuff. If that comes back a 67+ or 68 I might consider it. If it comes back a 69 I can't afford it.
That sounds like a very realistic report roadrunner. Thanks for sharing.
Given the lack of buyers or sellers it appears the markets have gone through a revaluation. Prices of anything are based on expectations and when those expectations are not met the market will reevaluate pricing. There gas been quite a lot of promise built into pm over the last 2 years which hasn't come to fruition. The markets are reajusting. The promise may still be there but opportunity cost and time value of money concerns are greater.
Evidence of buying can be seen in the US equity market as stock prices have increased at the same time treasuries have increased. This shows money going into both bonds and stocks at the same time. This is new money coming into treasuries, not a rotation from equities to bonds. So the new money either comes from the Japanese or the PM markets. >>
Your second link headline says it much better than I can: "Abe Aids Bernanke. . ."
It's always about driving money to US equities or US bonds, always. This is the unwritten policy of the FED and yes, it does affect PM price "discovery."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Your response does nothing to prove the integrity of the article (blog) you linked. You are only promoting propaganda. But I am glad to see you put your money where your mouth is via your purchase if the ASEs.
I am a seeker if fact and I loathe unsubstantiated opinion presented as fact. I will confront any such comment as I have on this board for the last 10 years. Don't takeit personally
No doubt a "tin foil hat" video but I found some things interesting. Jim Willie is stating that we're headed to $500/oz premiums in gold within weeks/several months. Says silver premiums are already at 40%....and here to stay. We'll know by summer if JW and JS are blowing smoke. Skip the Apple lead in to get to the silver portion. I did find the Aapl analysis interesting even if the author's analysis is bogus. Net Dania has a problem with its daily stock charts and they are screwy looking. Newmont mining has the same issue. But lower and higher time frames are fine. Brother John should have dug a bit deeper before adding another layer of tin foil to his hat.
I was sent a gold and silver buy sheet from my dealer friend from a NY state dealer he does business with. As of Friday there are paying $3.30 over spot (face x.715 +$3.30) for $100 or more of 90% silver. Still paying $29 each for circ F/VF pre-1921 Morgans. Buys on ASE's are spot +$3. While they have buys on silver bars around spot + 1$, they have none to sell. Gold prices are closer to current levels with AGE spread at $36/65 above spot. Definitely seems to show supply issues with silver. This is not new as these higher premiums for 90% silver and Morgans have been around for months. Wonder how much of all the 90% that was out there from 2008-2012 was turned into .999 bars and coins? Apmex buy prices are pretty much in line with this NY dealer. Apmex is a little low on Morgans. Apmex is stating to call them if your ask price on ASE's is "close" to their offered bid. Guess that means you might be able to get $3.50 for mixed date ASE's and $4 from them for 2013 ASE's. Gold might appear to be plentiful based on these bids. Silver is another issue.
<< <i>Dollar is still due to make a 3 yr bottom in summer 2014. >>
There are a lot of coincidental cycles that point to market bottoms/tops at that timeframe. And if you believe in the 'elite conspiracy' it probably is one of the best times to 'make the next move' being that you can create and be well into the next economic condition well before the 2016 election hub-bub starts, so they can usher in the next candidate who will 'fix everything.'
For now, I expect prices to muddle along at these levels until then. However, keep in mind that "muddling along at these levels" probably involves a +/-$100 variance from the current price level. I won't be surprised to see another visit to around $1300 in the next week or two which I tend to believe will be THE bottom for this move. It will be interesting because gold sentiment probably can't get any lower than it is. The rebound should be massive.
What your dealer reported is along what I've heard. Many of the bullion banks who supply to dealers I've heard are refusing to buy or sell and have limited offerings at the moment, although my local dealer reports that the phone is ringing off the hook for buyers (no sellers). I see some products at several dealers still have the same prices (most likely because the dealer doesn't want to take losses), while APMEX still seems to have fairly decent premiums. I think APMEX is probably one of the best yardsticks since they have all of their pricing and inventory readily available and I seem to think that they must do a good job of hedging their positions so they avoid market risk and it allows them to sell near spot regardless of what happens. Although yes, they've raised premiums on ASEs but their supplies are limited and you can't blame them for charging what the market will bear.
<< <i>Your response does nothing to prove the integrity of the article (blog) you linked. You are only promoting propaganda. But I am glad to see you put your money where your mouth is via your purchase if the ASEs.
I am a seeker if fact and I loathe unsubstantiated opinion presented as fact. I will confront any such comment as I have on this board for the last 10 years. Don't takeit personally >>
I take nothing here personally even when it comes from you. I'm a seeker of opinion, even those I may not agree with (that's why I enjoy reading your posts). I loathe narrowmindeness. Don't assume (again) that I agree with everything I share. I share commentary that I find interesting and applicable to PMs or something that directly affects PMs. I don't present it as fact I present it as a link to someone else's words. Its not my responsibility to prove the integrity of comments made by someone else. I link differing views on metals on the PM forum, like many others here, so that fellow readers can be exposed to opinion outside of member comments in order to come to their own conclusions and to form their own opinions. I have gone on record many times here that a PM stacker needs to "learn and read all you can but most importantly learn to form your own educated opinion."
If you take exception with something a third party says, take it up with the third party. Don't like something, don't read it. Don't agree post a counterpoint. But attacking the person sharing the opinion piece serves no purpose. If something gets posted or linked that you think is a blantant falsehood then say so and back it up. Feel free to post an approved reading list, not that anyone should stick to it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If something gets posted that you think is a blantant falsehood then say so and back it up
I do all the time. Why I bother I dont know, maybe im just bored. There certainly is no lack of misinformation. Just read the last 2 years of newsletter links from this chatroom.
I would rather seek fact than opinion. Everyone has opinion, yet very few have fact. As a PM bull you should appreciate the scarcity of fact.
Lets hope those premiums hold Roadrunner. I think everyone is looking to buy silver at 24 thinking it will bounce back to 30 and they can make a quick buck. There really doesnt seem to be much demand at current premiums ~ $28, except from the large dealers. Who are they selling to?
I see the current premiums in PMs as no different than the premiums that might me in a stock option after a quick and violent price move. Generally the premiums should be sold rather than bought in this scenario.
<< <i>I see the current premiums in PMs as no different than the premiums that might me in a stock option after a quick and violent price move. Generally the premiums should be sold rather than bought in this scenario. >>
the holding power of metal premiums will be a very good indicator of the strength of the metal itself. Weakening premiums will be a good indicator of further downward price movement. I personally think we will see them grow and stick.
Oh, and for the record I'm not a PM bull. I'm a dollar bear based on what I see as long term dollar destruction and I happen to believe PMs are currently the best long term protection. When I'm convinced something else is better protection then I'll make my move.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I love technical analysis, but this article is ripe with opinion and supposition and emotion. NEVER mix technical analysis with emotion. The author should have known better, now he is facing his most unlikely scenario. I wonder if his next judgment will be based on solid technical analysis or emotion.
Failure of the support at $1500 is viewed as highly unlikely given the current technical readings – if it happened it would have dire implications for just about everything, as it would imply that another 2008 style deflationary implosion was on the horizon
When technical analysts start using comments like, demonstrates that the sheep are all up at one end of the field, the bearish end or they are dumb as a door stopper it is time to take the analysis with a grain of salt.
I really love the sentiment chart. Like a reading of -6 or -12 is supposed to be extreme. The implication is that 88 still think gold is a good bet. We need a reading much greater--like close to -40 before a major uptrend can begin. And we wont get that until the pain and suffering is great. Right now everyone is still shocked, not feeling pain, or in denial.
Your link has the most recent sentiment chart. The sentiment chart is part of a paid newsletter that I don't get. The closest I can find is this article from April 10 saying it is at record lows. The next time McLellan puts it in his newsletter I'll show it here. HSI
To be a little fair to Clive, with all of the charts and negative extremes prior to the recent big plunge and with how gold has behaved the last several years, his analysis that a major bottom is forming was reasonable but I wouldn't say it was actionable. I had thought the same but I had decided to wait for some confirmation and to see signs the market was turning, which it hasn't. Gold just hadn't been showing any kind of strength.
Last weeks' close was a mere retracement of the big move down. Will need to see more strength to determine if the correction is over. I think we'll see the low $1300's at least one more time.
I love technical analysis, but this article is ripe with opinion and supposition and emotion. NEVER mix technical analysis with emotion. The author should have known better, now he is facing his most unlikely scenario. I wonder if his next judgment will be based on solid technical analysis or emotion. >>
Clive was right that the hit off $1550 was a bottom...shorter term though. Gold bounced sharply for 4 days to $1620. Nice call Clive. If you looked at Clive's more recent article on 26 March he went bearish on the failure to stay above $1600. He was holding bearish before this past week's drop unfolded expecting to see the $1525-$1560 range to get hit again (it did). Nice call Clive. His latest post is below (4/16). He claims to have piled on puts the day before Friday's crash. Maybe he's making it up. Ask his subscribers. Don't see why he'd lie. Word gets around fast enough. But, judging him today, solely on a post from 2 months ago isn't exactly fair play. Seems to me he protected his subscribers rather well. He never ruled out the sub-$1500 scenario, just said at one point it was unlikely. He also changed his mind before it went sub-$1550. If you want 100% of Clive's analysis....subscribe.
On April 12th when gold was $1575 the HSI was -31%. That's the low since it came out in 1997 (gold bottomed in 1999-2001). With gold now $200 lower than 2 weeks ago, I suspect HSI is now -40% or lower. The public opinion poll as of April 17th was 38%. It was at 72% when gold peaked at $1800 in early October. It's only been that low a few times over the past 10 years. Silver public opinion is at the lowest level this decade. If all the new car dealerships decided to lower their prices by 12% under cost I suspect there would be a rush of buyers to clean them out. Eventually, new inventory would filter in at the normal higher prices to stablize things. That's what's going on with gold and silver right now. I don't see why the huge demand and shortages are a surprise to anyone. Gold prices are 12% lower.
I did see some updated comments from Clive hedging his bet. But what is he thinking now that gold has broken his line in the sand? A line that he says will have severe repercussions. I like Clive and would be interested in his thoughts. But I wont change my opinion that a bit of arrogance crept into his thinking. Arrogance is deadly in the investing world.
Gold can bounce all the way to 1525 without changing the downtrend. I imagine the new and old buyers see this current 1400 area as a great buying opportunity and may be able to push gold back to 1500. But they could just as easily wait and buy in the sub 1400 area in a few months. Way too much technical damage for PMs to mount a return to bull market mode.
The Case for Cash and Patience "Cash earns nothing, but it also loses nothing unless inflation is running rampant (and it isn’t). History suggests waiting for better opportunities is the prudent thing to do. I cast my vote with history." - Mike “Mish” Shedlock
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The Case for Cash and Patience "Cash earns nothing, but it also loses nothing unless inflation is running rampant (and it isn’t). History suggests waiting for better opportunities is the prudent thing to do. I cast my vote with history." - Mike “Mish” Shedlock >>
But, but, but cash is worthless paper. Thats what I've been hearing the last 2 years. Why the change of heart now, Mish?
I might need to get more bullish PMs sooner than I thought.
The Case for Cash and Patience "Cash earns nothing, but it also loses nothing unless inflation is running rampant (and it isn’t). History suggests waiting for better opportunities is the prudent thing to do. I cast my vote with history." - Mike “Mish” Shedlock >>
But, but, but cash is worthless paper. Thats what I've been hearing the last 2 years. Why the change of heart now, Mish?
I might need to get more bullish PMs sooner than I thought. >>
"worth less" and "worthless" are not the same thing.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Roadrunner made some excellent comments on gsr on the previous page. >>
And if that continues to pan out gold and silver will continue to get slugged for weeks/months. I linked a chart below. The 3 headed shape to stoch-rsi is in play which usually marks the end of multi-month rallies. If you scale down to the daily chart you'll also see that 3 headed stoch-rsi pattern which for the past few years has signaled the end of GSR rallies. Now it's a matter of how long those third heads extend out. GSR has run up into the 1 month uptrend line. A rest might be due.
The recent choppy and weak GSR pattern is similar to June-July 2012 as GSR peaked in a flurry of volatility. I wonder if it's doing the same thing right now, at least for the short term? GSR has busted out above the 2011 highs. I would think GSR needs the dollar to go with it. And right now the dollar is giving signs that it's intermediate cycle might be ending. For now we're in the middle of end of month OpEx/TBond auction week. Hard to get a read as the PTB keeps an extra tight lid on metals.
Mish has been a "deflationist who likes gold" for at least the past 3 years....probably a lot longer. His spots are still in the same place.
I'll post more later. Just went short gold with a very small position as I think the retracement of the move down is complete and that there will be second move down to re-test recent lows soon. I am running with a pretty tight stop in case gold keeps going.
<< <i>I'll post more later. Just went short gold with a very small position as I think the retracement of the move down is complete and that there will be second move down to re-test recent lows soon. I am running with a pretty tight stop in case gold keeps going. >>
I went triple long at $23 silver yesterday with a very large postion, also keeping tight stop. Hope I'm right, but that means you'll have to be wrong.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Suckers rally. The big bullion wholesalers saw no one was taking the $5 over spot bait so they try to create a sense of urgency ans panic and push prices higher. I imagine they were able to catch a few fish today.
<< <i>Suckers rally. The big bullion wholesalers saw no one was taking the $5 over spot bait so they try to create a sense of urgency ans panic and push prices higher. I imagine they were able to catch a few fish today. >>
So, let me get this strait - the FED can't manipulate prices but the bullion banks can. You and Baley should team up for your own blog.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So it turns out I did get ahead of myself but it was just a small position and the stop triggered pretty quickly, so no biggie. I think we'll retest the low $1300's soon, prerhaps as early as next week. But then it will be back-up-truck moment, as $1300 or maybe something like $1280 will be as low as it gets. It's hard not to get sucked into this rebound, and the stories of massive gold buying everywhere help feed a sense of urgency. But I've seen this before, and there's almost always a second move...
Last night's $1486 did backtest 2 key resistance lines (the 7 month downtrend and the 1 yr downtrend from Aug 2011 – Aug 2012). The negative GDP news spiked the dollar down and gave gold and silver a lift. Have to wonder if this is just a dead cat bounce on the fall from last night. I think it is judging by how quickly the metals peeled back from $1486 last night. Silver has had little volume this morning except within 1 min of the GDP report at 8:30 and 8:31. Not a convincing rally yet. Gold only showed strong volume at this morning’s $1474 peak at 8:48 am…..as if the last strong hands were getting out above yesterday’s highs. This was an atypical OpEx week...but all the carnage was completed in previous weeks. Next Tu-Wed is another FOMC meeting. Should be good for some gyrations right at the end of the month/start of a new month.
<< <i>Suckers rally. The big bullion wholesalers saw no one was taking the $5 over spot bait so they try to create a sense of urgency ans panic and push prices higher. I imagine they were able to catch a few fish today. >>
So, let me get this strait - the FED can't manipulate prices but the bullion banks can. You and Baley should team up for your own blog. >>
Kind of makes your argument sound pretty ridiculous doesn't it?
Commercial short to long silver ratio dropped to another all time low of 1.25 with a net short position of 17K. Maybe still some room to squeeze that down to 11K to 15K. Commercial gold S/L ratio plummeted to a very low 1.67 with a net short position of 104K. That’s by far the lowest of this 7 month cycle. During last year's crush it only got to 130K. Based on previous years, the commercials are at low enough lows for a solid bottom. But the large specs continue to hold an excess of shorts that is uncharacteristic of bottoms. Who is the smarter money here? I've seen it called both ways.
What was really interesting is that the commercials got rid of massive 37K of net shorts while the specs (managed money and small specs) added those 37K in shorts. Managed money as of Tuesday was as short gold as they ever have been in this cycle. Same comment for small reportable specs. Last time these guys did this we got the $300 smackdown. They have been smart money as of late. But, they got smoked some on gold’s rise from $1420 to $1486 this week. No doubt they were the ones getting squeezed Wed-Friday. They still may be right though. They took another huge position on gold’s short side....not so much silver. Commercial's net short position of 104K is the smallest one seen since Oct 2008 when it hit 92K. So they are definitely at multi-year lows. The commercials have essentially covered. This basically leaves the large specs.
The takedown today in the 11:00 hour ($1475-$1447) was basically the inverse of yesterday's rise during the 1 pm hour ($1455 to $1470). Both had similar hourly volumes though today's was larger. These 2 hrs were the largest volume hrs of the past 9 up days. Still shows me that the large specs still have the nerve to apply the brakes. It seems crazy that they piled on 37,000 more shorts AFTER the bounce of $1321 and less than $1439. Like me, they probably thought the bounce was done at $1439. Some short covering from them no doubt fueled the rally up to $1470-$1486. Still, they had to have been supremely confident that this bounce off $1321 was not the end of this correction before plopping down 37K more shorts. Next week's FOMC will help clear it up a bit.
Summary: when jmski52 finally decides that GDXJ is worth the risk, it will finally be the 4 yr cycle bottom and probably at $3-$5/share or something silly like that. That's when we should all hop aboard the train with him.
Looks like $1487 will be the defining line for any kind of upward momentum, as I think this resistance level (and 38.2% retrace level) is going to hold at least a bit longer, and a solid move over it will indicate strength. I had gotten to anxious and thought the level was $1456 but it's hard to determine in real-time, easy to see in the rear-view.
I think we're looking at a second bottom around $1300 though for two main reasons: 1. I don't recall in recent history and kind of major drop where gold dropped and then just took off to the upside without revisiting the low (or somewhere near it) again. It's easy to get sucked back into the mania after seeing gold recover like it just has, after reading about shortages, and after reading about all of the huge physical demand, and reading reports like the last COT. There almost always is one more drop in store, and that's what you want to wait for. 2. Gold is just not ready to take off yet. The second visit of $1300 might not come unitl July or so, but next week is a great candidate for a big drop as well.
Summary: when jmski52 finally decides that GDXJ is worth the risk, it will finally be the 4 yr cycle bottom and probably at $3-$5/share or something silly like that. That's when we should all hop aboard the train with him.
You don't know how many times in the past 3 years that I've thought about truckin' down to ScottTrade and filling out their paperwork, plunking down some bucks and getting some GDXJ. Probably 10 times, as I drive by their office on my way to Chipolte's.
And, every time that I have those thoughts, I start that same internal debate - paper, or gold? Paper, or silver? Paper, or Platinum? Then I have that debate with myself - how much hassle with it take to get the stock certificates in my own name, in hand? For a 10 bagger, I might risk paper. Hey, I do think about it!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
A 10 bagger off the final 4 yr bottom is quite realistic imo. One just has to make sure their brokers will still be in business when that day comes or they have the certs in hand.
<< <i>A 10 bagger off the final 4 yr bottom is quite realistic imo. One just has to make sure their brokers will still be in business when that day comes or they have the certs in hand. >>
Agreed, very possible to get a 10 fold return on mining stocks. However, the brokers will continue to be in business and there is no reason to take physical possession of the certificates.
<< <i>Agreed, very possible to get a 10 fold return on mining stocks. However, the brokers will continue to be in business and there is no reason to take physical possession of the certificates. >>
I can think of a couple reasons. None good enough to inspire me to actually do it, but that day may come.
Comments
<< <i>
Gold Price Attack First US Response in Currency War Escalation
" A theory that the weaker yen would drive money market investors to other currencies has not really panned out, and so fears that those investors may move to monetary metals is one motive for attempting to undermine the safe haven status of precious metals. . . Central banks are terrified that a strongly responsive gold price correlation to capital fabrication levels could trigger a destabilization of confidence in their fiat currencies." >>
First this is a link from a gold newsletter. Perhaps just a little biased? They wouldnt want to promote their fund or keep investors in their fund, would they?
Second, what evidence is there of this---A theory that the weaker yen would drive money market investors to other currencies has not really panned out, Since the author doesnt provide any proof other than soundbites from other PM bulls, i'll provide an argument to the contrary. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/880c43fc-a376-11e2-8f9c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2R3T9c6xv and http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-13/abe-aids-bernanke-as-japan-seen-buying-558-billion-foreign-debt.html.
Evidence of buying can be seen in the US equity market as stock prices have increased at the same time treasuries have increased. This shows money going into both bonds and stocks at the same time. This is new money coming into treasuries, not a rotation from equities to bonds. So the new money either comes from the Japanese or the PM markets.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
came out to see what was available in cheap bullion. I guess there really wasn't any. He didn't do any additional business. Coin sales to the public are still weak. He basically
has to wholesale all his bullion and rare coins since the collector is not paying the premiums that dealers will. Big bullion dealers like Rarcoa and Heritage had their bids pulled
early last week so it was very difficult to know what physical or collectible gold was actually trading for. Circ Morgans still bringing strong prices. He also mentioned that by the
end of the week he hadn't seen any sellers of physical gold and silver....nor any potential buyers either. Most everyone waiting and watching. Said if he ran across any cheap proof
1 oz gold eagles or buffs at these new lower levels to give me a call. He picked up a common date S mint Morgan that he said was the finest single silver dollar he has ever seen.
And considering he's been playing with silver dollars since he bought 3 full GSA sets in the early 1970's he knows his stuff. If that comes back a 67+ or 68 I might consider it. If it
comes back a 69 I can't afford it.
Given the lack of buyers or sellers it appears the markets have gone through a revaluation. Prices of anything are based on expectations and when those expectations are not met the market will reevaluate pricing. There gas been quite a lot of promise built into pm over the last 2 years which hasn't come to fruition. The markets are reajusting. The promise may still be there but opportunity cost and time value of money concerns are greater.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Second, what evidence is there of this---A theory that the weaker yen would drive money market investors to other currencies has not really panned out, Since the author doesnt provide any proof other than soundbites from other PM bulls, i'll provide an argument to the contrary. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/880c43fc-a376-11e2-8f9c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2R3T9c6xv and http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-13/abe-aids-bernanke-as-japan-seen-buying-558-billion-foreign-debt.html.
Evidence of buying can be seen in the US equity market as stock prices have increased at the same time treasuries have increased. This shows money going into both bonds and stocks at the same time. This is new money coming into treasuries, not a rotation from equities to bonds. So the new money either comes from the Japanese or the PM markets. >>
Your second link headline says it much better than I can: "Abe Aids Bernanke. . ."
It's always about driving money to US equities or US bonds, always. This is the unwritten policy of the FED and yes, it does affect PM price "discovery."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I am a seeker if fact and I loathe unsubstantiated opinion presented as fact. I will confront any such comment as I have on this board for the last 10 years. Don't takeit personally
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
silver premiums are already at 40%....and here to stay. We'll know by summer if JW and JS are blowing smoke. Skip the Apple lead in to get to the silver portion. I did
find the Aapl analysis interesting even if the author's analysis is bogus. Net Dania has a problem with its daily stock charts and they are screwy looking. Newmont mining has the
same issue. But lower and higher time frames are fine. Brother John should have dug a bit deeper before adding another layer of tin foil to his hat.
Linky
I was sent a gold and silver buy sheet from my dealer friend from a NY state dealer he does business with. As of Friday there are paying $3.30 over spot (face x.715 +$3.30)
for $100 or more of 90% silver. Still paying $29 each for circ F/VF pre-1921 Morgans. Buys on ASE's are spot +$3. While they have buys on silver bars around spot + 1$, they
have none to sell. Gold prices are closer to current levels with AGE spread at $36/65 above spot. Definitely seems to show supply issues with silver. This is not new as these
higher premiums for 90% silver and Morgans have been around for months. Wonder how much of all the 90% that was out there from 2008-2012 was turned into .999 bars and
coins? Apmex buy prices are pretty much in line with this NY dealer. Apmex is a little low on Morgans. Apmex is stating to call them if your ask price on ASE's is "close" to their
offered bid. Guess that means you might be able to get $3.50 for mixed date ASE's and $4 from them for 2013 ASE's. Gold might appear to be plentiful based on these bids. Silver
is another issue.
<< <i>Dollar is still due to make a 3 yr bottom in summer 2014. >>
There are a lot of coincidental cycles that point to market bottoms/tops at that timeframe. And if you believe in the 'elite conspiracy' it probably is one of the best times to 'make the next move' being that you can create and be well into the next economic condition well before the 2016 election hub-bub starts, so they can usher in the next candidate who will 'fix everything.'
For now, I expect prices to muddle along at these levels until then. However, keep in mind that "muddling along at these levels" probably involves a +/-$100 variance from the current price level. I won't be surprised to see another visit to around $1300 in the next week or two which I tend to believe will be THE bottom for this move. It will be interesting because gold sentiment probably can't get any lower than it is. The rebound should be massive.
What your dealer reported is along what I've heard. Many of the bullion banks who supply to dealers I've heard are refusing to buy or sell and have limited offerings at the moment, although my local dealer reports that the phone is ringing off the hook for buyers (no sellers). I see some products at several dealers still have the same prices (most likely because the dealer doesn't want to take losses), while APMEX still seems to have fairly decent premiums. I think APMEX is probably one of the best yardsticks since they have all of their pricing and inventory readily available and I seem to think that they must do a good job of hedging their positions so they avoid market risk and it allows them to sell near spot regardless of what happens. Although yes, they've raised premiums on ASEs but their supplies are limited and you can't blame them for charging what the market will bear.
<< <i>Your response does nothing to prove the integrity of the article (blog) you linked. You are only promoting propaganda. But I am glad to see you put your money where your mouth is via your purchase if the ASEs.
I am a seeker if fact and I loathe unsubstantiated opinion presented as fact. I will confront any such comment as I have on this board for the last 10 years. Don't takeit personally >>
I take nothing here personally even when it comes from you. I'm a seeker of opinion, even those I may not agree with (that's why I enjoy reading your posts). I loathe narrowmindeness. Don't assume (again) that I agree with everything I share. I share commentary that I find interesting and applicable to PMs or something that directly affects PMs. I don't present it as fact I present it as a link to someone else's words. Its not my responsibility to prove the integrity of comments made by someone else. I link differing views on metals on the PM forum, like many others here, so that fellow readers can be exposed to opinion outside of member comments in order to come to their own conclusions and to form their own opinions. I have gone on record many times here that a PM stacker needs to "learn and read all you can but most importantly learn to form your own educated opinion."
If you take exception with something a third party says, take it up with the third party. Don't like something, don't read it. Don't agree post a counterpoint. But attacking the person sharing the opinion piece serves no purpose. If something gets posted or linked that you think is a blantant falsehood then say so and back it up. Feel free to post an approved reading list, not that anyone should stick to it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I do all the time. Why I bother I dont know, maybe im just bored. There certainly is no lack of misinformation. Just read the last 2 years of newsletter links from this chatroom.
I would rather seek fact than opinion. Everyone has opinion, yet very few have fact. As a PM bull you should appreciate the scarcity of fact.
Lets hope those premiums hold Roadrunner. I think everyone is looking to buy silver at 24 thinking it will bounce back to 30 and they can make a quick buck. There really doesnt seem to be much demand at current premiums ~ $28, except from the large dealers. Who are they selling to?
I see the current premiums in PMs as no different than the premiums that might me in a stock option after a quick and violent price move. Generally the premiums should be sold rather than bought in this scenario.
PC, do you have a link to a gold sentiment chart?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I see the current premiums in PMs as no different than the premiums that might me in a stock option after a quick and violent price move. Generally the premiums should be sold rather than bought in this scenario. >>
the holding power of metal premiums will be a very good indicator of the strength of the metal itself. Weakening premiums will be a good indicator of further downward price movement. I personally think we will see them grow and stick.
Oh, and for the record I'm not a PM bull. I'm a dollar bear based on what I see as long term dollar destruction and I happen to believe PMs are currently the best long term protection. When I'm convinced something else is better protection then I'll make my move.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
http://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2013-02-24
I love technical analysis, but this article is ripe with opinion and supposition and emotion. NEVER mix technical analysis with emotion. The author should have known better, now he is facing his most unlikely scenario. I wonder if his next judgment will be based on solid technical analysis or emotion.
Failure of the support at $1500 is viewed as highly unlikely given the current technical readings – if it happened it would have dire implications for just about everything, as it would imply that another 2008 style deflationary implosion was on the horizon
When technical analysts start using comments like, demonstrates that the sheep are all up at one end of the field, the bearish end or they are dumb as a door stopper it is time to take the analysis with a grain of salt.
I really love the sentiment chart. Like a reading of -6 or -12 is supposed to be extreme. The implication is that 88 still think gold is a good bet. We need a reading much greater--like close to -40 before a major uptrend can begin. And we wont get that until the pain and suffering is great. Right now everyone is still shocked, not feeling pain, or in denial.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
HSI
To be a little fair to Clive, with all of the charts and negative extremes prior to the recent big plunge and with how gold has behaved the last several years, his analysis that a major bottom is forming was reasonable but I wouldn't say it was actionable. I had thought the same but I had decided to wait for some confirmation and to see signs the market was turning, which it hasn't. Gold just hadn't been showing any kind of strength.
Last weeks' close was a mere retracement of the big move down. Will need to see more strength to determine if the correction is over. I think we'll see the low $1300's at least one more time.
Found this article from the Fool, found it fitting of the discussion. It talks about how buyers are taking advantage of these low prices.
Gold Fell to $1,400? Welcome to the New Gold Rush!
<< <i>I wonder what Clive is thinking now...
http://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2013-02-24
I love technical analysis, but this article is ripe with opinion and supposition and emotion. NEVER mix technical analysis with emotion. The author should have known better, now he is facing his most unlikely scenario. I wonder if his next judgment will be based on solid technical analysis or emotion. >>
Clive was right that the hit off $1550 was a bottom...shorter term though. Gold bounced sharply for 4 days to $1620. Nice call Clive. If you looked at Clive's more recent article on 26 March he went bearish on the failure to stay above $1600. He was holding bearish before this past week's drop unfolded expecting to see the $1525-$1560 range to get hit again (it did). Nice call Clive. His latest post is below (4/16). He claims to have piled on puts the day before Friday's crash. Maybe he's making it up. Ask his subscribers. Don't see why he'd lie. Word gets around fast enough. But, judging him today, solely on a post from 2 months ago isn't exactly fair play. Seems to me he protected his subscribers rather well. He never ruled out the sub-$1500 scenario, just said at one point it was unlikely. He also changed his mind before it went sub-$1550. If you want 100% of Clive's analysis....subscribe.
Maund article
On April 12th when gold was $1575 the HSI was -31%. That's the low since it came out in 1997 (gold bottomed in 1999-2001). With gold now $200 lower than 2 weeks ago, I suspect HSI is now -40% or lower. The public opinion poll as of April 17th was 38%. It was at 72% when gold peaked at $1800 in early October. It's only been that low a few times over the past 10 years. Silver public opinion is at the lowest level this decade. If all the new car dealerships decided to lower their prices by 12% under cost I suspect there would be a rush of buyers to clean them out. Eventually, new inventory would filter in at the normal higher prices to stablize things. That's what's going on with gold and silver right now. I don't see why the huge demand and shortages are a surprise to anyone. Gold prices are 12% lower.
Gold can bounce all the way to 1525 without changing the downtrend. I imagine the new and old buyers see this current 1400 area as a great buying opportunity and may be able to push gold back to 1500. But they could just as easily wait and buy in the sub 1400 area in a few months. Way too much technical damage for PMs to mount a return to bull market mode.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Case for Cash and Patience
"Cash earns nothing, but it also loses nothing unless inflation is running rampant (and it isn’t). History suggests waiting for better opportunities is the prudent thing to do. I cast my vote with history." - Mike “Mish” Shedlock
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Interesting take on being in cash:
The Case for Cash and Patience
"Cash earns nothing, but it also loses nothing unless inflation is running rampant (and it isn’t). History suggests waiting for better opportunities is the prudent thing to do. I cast my vote with history." - Mike “Mish” Shedlock >>
But, but, but cash is worthless paper. Thats what I've been hearing the last 2 years. Why the change of heart now, Mish?
I might need to get more bullish PMs sooner than I thought.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Interesting take on being in cash:
The Case for Cash and Patience
"Cash earns nothing, but it also loses nothing unless inflation is running rampant (and it isn’t). History suggests waiting for better opportunities is the prudent thing to do. I cast my vote with history." - Mike “Mish” Shedlock >>
But, but, but cash is worthless paper. Thats what I've been hearing the last 2 years. Why the change of heart now, Mish?
I might need to get more bullish PMs sooner than I thought.
"worth less" and "worthless" are not the same thing.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I prefer gold but at 70+ silver might just become as cohodk would say a better "relative" value
anyone looking at GSR ?
Groucho Marx
<< <i>anyone looking at GSR ? >>
Anyone reading this thread?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Roadrunner made some excellent comments on gsr on the previous page. >>
And if that continues to pan out gold and silver will continue to get slugged for weeks/months.
I linked a chart below. The 3 headed shape to stoch-rsi is in play which usually marks the end of multi-month rallies.
If you scale down to the daily chart you'll also see that 3 headed stoch-rsi pattern which for the past few years has signaled the end of GSR rallies.
Now it's a matter of how long those third heads extend out. GSR has run up into the 1 month uptrend line. A rest might be due.
The recent choppy and weak GSR pattern is similar to June-July 2012 as GSR peaked in a flurry of volatility. I wonder if it's doing the same thing right now, at least
for the short term? GSR has busted out above the 2011 highs. I would think GSR needs the dollar to go with it. And right now the dollar is giving signs
that it's intermediate cycle might be ending. For now we're in the middle of end of month OpEx/TBond auction week. Hard to get a read as the PTB keeps
an extra tight lid on metals.
Mish has been a "deflationist who likes gold" for at least the past 3 years....probably a lot longer. His spots are still in the same place.
weekly 3 yr GSR chart
daily GSR chart
Clive's weekend gold post - he's in full bear mode now...running with the crowd
And, and, it's so spendable.
Gawrsh, it's hard to hold back sometimes.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I'll post more later. Just went short gold with a very small position as I think the retracement of the move down is complete and that there will be second move down to re-test recent lows soon. I am running with a pretty tight stop in case gold keeps going. >>
I went triple long at $23 silver yesterday with a very large postion, also keeping tight stop. Hope I'm right, but that means you'll have to be wrong.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Suckers rally. The big bullion wholesalers saw no one was taking the $5 over spot bait so they try to create a sense of urgency ans panic and push prices higher. I imagine they were able to catch a few fish today. >>
So, let me get this strait - the FED can't manipulate prices but the bullion banks can. You and Baley should team up for your own blog.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Suckers rally. The big bullion wholesalers saw no one was taking the $5 over spot bait so they try to create a sense of urgency ans panic and push prices higher. I imagine they were able to catch a few fish today. >>
So, let me get this strait - the FED can't manipulate prices but the bullion banks can. You and Baley should team up for your own blog. >>
Kind of makes your argument sound pretty ridiculous doesn't it?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Wake me up when gold hits $1,200.00
That's when the serious panic will set in.
Commercial short to long silver ratio dropped to another all time low of 1.25 with a net short position of 17K. Maybe still some room to squeeze that down to 11K to 15K. Commercial gold S/L ratio plummeted to a very low 1.67 with a net short position of 104K. That’s by far the lowest of this 7 month cycle. During last year's crush it only got to 130K. Based on previous years, the commercials are at low enough lows for a solid bottom. But the large specs continue to hold an excess of shorts that is uncharacteristic of bottoms. Who is the smarter money here? I've seen it called both ways.
What was really interesting is that the commercials got rid of massive 37K of net shorts while the specs (managed money and small specs) added those 37K in shorts. Managed money as of Tuesday was as short gold as they ever have been in this cycle. Same comment for small reportable specs. Last time these guys did this we got the $300 smackdown. They have been smart money as of late. But, they got smoked some on gold’s rise from $1420 to $1486 this week. No doubt they were the ones getting squeezed Wed-Friday. They still may be right though. They took another huge position on gold’s short side....not so much silver. Commercial's net short position of 104K is the smallest one seen since Oct 2008 when it hit 92K. So they are definitely at multi-year lows. The commercials have essentially covered. This basically leaves the large specs.
The takedown today in the 11:00 hour ($1475-$1447) was basically the inverse of yesterday's rise during the 1 pm hour ($1455 to $1470). Both had similar hourly volumes though today's was larger. These 2 hrs were the largest volume hrs of the past 9 up days. Still shows me that the large specs still have the nerve to apply the brakes. It seems crazy that they piled on 37,000 more shorts AFTER the bounce of $1321 and less than $1439. Like me, they probably thought the bounce was done at $1439. Some short covering from them no doubt fueled the rally up to $1470-$1486. Still, they had to have been supremely confident that this bounce off $1321 was not the end of this correction before plopping down 37K more shorts. Next week's FOMC will help clear it up a bit.
Summary: when jmski52 finally decides that GDXJ is worth the risk, it will finally be the 4 yr cycle bottom and probably at $3-$5/share or something silly like that. That's when we should all hop aboard the train with him.
Looks like $1487 will be the defining line for any kind of upward momentum, as I think this resistance level (and 38.2% retrace level) is going to hold at least a bit longer, and a solid move over it will indicate strength. I had gotten to anxious and thought the level was $1456 but it's hard to determine in real-time, easy to see in the rear-view.
I think we're looking at a second bottom around $1300 though for two main reasons:
1. I don't recall in recent history and kind of major drop where gold dropped and then just took off to the upside without revisiting the low (or somewhere near it) again. It's easy to get sucked back into the mania after seeing gold recover like it just has, after reading about shortages, and after reading about all of the huge physical demand, and reading reports like the last COT. There almost always is one more drop in store, and that's what you want to wait for.
2. Gold is just not ready to take off yet.
The second visit of $1300 might not come unitl July or so, but next week is a great candidate for a big drop as well.
You don't know how many times in the past 3 years that I've thought about truckin' down to ScottTrade and filling out their paperwork, plunking down some bucks and getting some GDXJ. Probably 10 times, as I drive by their office on my way to Chipolte's.
And, every time that I have those thoughts, I start that same internal debate - paper, or gold? Paper, or silver? Paper, or Platinum? Then I have that debate with myself - how much hassle with it take to get the stock certificates in my own name, in hand? For a 10 bagger, I might risk paper. Hey, I do think about it!
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>A 10 bagger off the final 4 yr bottom is quite realistic imo. One just has to make sure their brokers will still be in business when that day comes or they have the certs in hand. >>
Agreed, very possible to get a 10 fold return on mining stocks. However, the brokers will continue to be in business and there is no reason to take physical possession of the certificates.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Agreed, very possible to get a 10 fold return on mining stocks. However, the brokers will continue to be in business and there is no reason to take physical possession of the certificates. >>
I can think of a couple reasons. None good enough to inspire me to actually do it, but that day may come.
Added: Perhaps a small gold smackdown Tues?