<< <i> If I ask you about M1 or M2, and you start screaming about how you're talking about 'individuals and not reserves', then I think I have every right to wonder, since neither M1 or M2 measure reserves. >>
First off, I don't "scream", I capitalize for emphasis. Secondly, why ask me about such an irrelevant topic? You first brought up the topic of "reserves" with your comment of:
"You do understand that this 'ton of cash' you speak of is being held by banks in the form of reserves"
or did you not write that? Tough to tell with your silly need to edit so many of your nonsensical postings. >>
Just to recap:
1) You said that people are flush with cash, owing to large returns from equities. 2) I asked you for some evidence for this influx of cash into the economy, and asked if you were going to direct me to M1, or M2, or some other measure for money, to back up this claim. 3) You said that you were talking about individuals, and not reserves, which would imply that M1 or M2 are irrelevant because they measure reserves.
That, I think, is a fairly faithful accounting of the discussion to date. But no matter. I'm actually willing to have this talk, but before I get any deeper into this I'll ask you to answer the questions I posed above.
1) People have been warning that runaway inflation is just around the corner ever since QE2, and yet is hasn't happened- and, as evidenced the price of the T10 year, the market isn't expecting runaway inflation anytime soon. Why do you think this is?
2) What is a liquidity trap? >>
The answer to question 1 is very easy...a man with a printing press is buying $85B in treasuries/mtgs a month manipulating the price. You cannot use the T10 year as a guide as it is not a free market.
Reality #1: History shows that high levels of debt and deficit spending eventually lead to inflation
US inflation was 1% in 1915. Within just two years, it soared to 17%. It happened because the Treasury spent like crazy on the war, creating money to pay for it…
In 1945, the official inflation rate was 2%; it accelerated to 14% in 24 months. Inflation registered 3.2% in 1972 and hit 11% by 1974.
It's clear that the arrival of inflation can be sudden, and that prices can quickly spiral out of control. Given the profligate amount of money being printed by many countries around the globe, we could easily become victim to rapidly rising inflation. If we matched the historical increases, our CPI would register 11%, 15%, and 19% respectively, by February 2014.
Regardless of the timing, though, their is a clear warning from history: expecting the CPI to remain low indefinitely is a dangerous assumption.
<< <i>Just to be clear, signs of real and material inflation are everywhere and have been for awhile. I'm referring to the kind of inflation spiral that most of us have never experienced in our lifetimes. >>
And what are these signs of real and material inflation?
<< <i>Just to be clear, signs of real and material inflation are everywhere and have been for awhile. I'm referring to the kind of inflation spiral that most of us have never experienced in our lifetimes. >>
And what are these signs of real and material inflation? >>
<< <i>Just to be clear, signs of real and material inflation are everywhere and have been for awhile. I'm referring to the kind of inflation spiral that most of us have never experienced in our lifetimes. >>
And what are these signs of real and material inflation? >>
Go to the grocery store or fill up your tank. >>
We clearly have very different ideas about how inflation ought to be measured.
Pimco has determined that inflation has been over 1% higher for each of the past 20 years as commodities have not reverted back to the mean and the price increases have been sticky.
Since food and energy are excluded from the core the only component that is seeing large increases that comes to mind is rents and that is a function of the housing debacle.
There is no way one can say that cards in general in are in a bubble but there are probably pockets that are in one.
The extremely low interest rate policy of the FED is certainly driving investment dollars into collectibles. There is no disputing that.
This environment helps fuel high demand cards and keep afloat cards that are stuck in a long term trading range. If rates go up low end cards will have trouble at some point as the cost to carry them vs. risk free fixed rate investments will become less appealing in theory. In practice we will see how this plays out.
I realize debating the future of the hobby can be fun and certainly there are many strong theories but the bottom line is it is extremely hard to predict the long term future of this hobby as there are so many genres of cards that have their own supply and demand relationships that influence their final selling prices.
<< <i>I spent a little over $4000 for that same Molitor 1 year ago in the DMitri Young auction and very clearly remember a few heckles from board members about the price I paid. And of course there were many other cards sold in that auction that had experts from the forum shaking their heads saying they couldn't possibly hold their value. I wonder what all those same cards would go for right now. >>
For the Molly that you spent $4,569.60 on, in the right white border next to U.L. Washington there's a long vertical scratch, that's just on the holder right?
There's also a dot dead center to the top on the card and two dots to the left of Trammell. My guess is those issues kept the card price a bit down compared to the one that sold recently on ebay, which is the finest example I've ever seen. Yours has fantastic centering, sharp corners, and great coloring ... a solid ten IMO but I think the ebay one that sold is a better example.
IMO, it's just too easy to shill auctions these days so I don't participate in big dollar ones, either on or offbay.
As for the bubble, I think it's the unlimited unopened bubble that's burst. The notion that there is an endless supply of material out there. There simply isn't, it's dried up and now people are starting to pay crazy amounts for material ... sometimes even from sketchy sources.
This will carryover into the graded card market since people simply won't have as many premium examples to send in for grading. >>
This reply is so over the top, it crossed my mind that you were kidding around, then I remembered that you were one of the more vocal ones about me overpaying for that card and others overpaying in that same auction, but after a year here, I think I understand the way you roll a little more...
The case itself has more than a few scratches...none on the card. There is the one print dot on the top center and another to the right of Molitor in the yellow. I really can't see any other flaws. No idea what 2 print dots to the left of trammell you're talking about.
Looking at the one on eBay, it definitely has the oh so common printing smudge. It's very slight, but it's there in between the 2 "O's" in Rookie and also the "O" in shortstops. The most important thing to me if I were to buy that card was NO SMUDGE, as it's an almost legendary smudge on 99% of them, the eBay one included.
I also see a white print dot under the "A" in Royals and a dash on the yellow border to the left of Klutts. I could probably find a few more "flaws" similar to the ones you pointed to on mine, but what's the point? Is that one a beautiful 10 absolutely worthy of the grade? For sure. Definitely in the top 2 I've ever seen (And if anyone here bought it I don't want to come off as an ass or of being negative about it, it's a truly amazing card) I just feel I should respond. It's also worth noting that the scan from the SCP auction is phenomenal and shows every little detail, and the eBay one does not.
Based on all that, I'm surprised to see you say the eBay one is the nicest one you've ever seen, but then again I'm not. I have a feeling if the person that bought that one was a regular member here you'd have a different opinion on that one too....
The Clockwork Angel Collection...brought to you by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Chase TheClockworkAngelCollection
<< <i>I think we are in a bubble in almost all asset classes, sports cards being one of them. There's a TON of cash out there looking for a home and it's finding its way into everything. IMO, one of two macroeconomic events will occur:
1) This Fed policy of ours will lead to a fairly large recession (possible mild depression) within the next 5 years which will cause a significant pullback in the prices of stocks, real estate and most all collectibles.
2) It will lead to runaway inflation which causes price spikes in everything, though cards benefiting not anywhere near as much as traditional asset classes. On a nominal basis, that might be very good, but in real terms, not remotely impressive. >>
You do understand that this 'ton of cash' you speak of is being held by banks in the form of reserves, correct? When I read posts like this it makes me suspect that people don't really understand what it is the creates inflationary pressure on a currency.
Here's a short piece that should help clear up some of the misconceptions I've seen on this board regarding the relationship between QE and inflation. It's not dead-on, but it gives you a general idea of what's actually going on. >>
Did you really just cite a Keynesian economist whose idea of a rebuttal involves shouting down the other side?
It seems the "bubble" question has been brought up every couple weeks since the Dmitri Young auction.
As long as the economy continues to improve and as long as thirty-something and forty-somethings have spare money to invest or play with the market for the very best high end cards and unopened should continue to rise
The Clockwork Angel Collection...brought to you by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Chase TheClockworkAngelCollection
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
If I ask you about M1 or M2, and you start screaming about how you're talking about 'individuals and not reserves', then I think I have every right to wonder, since neither M1 or M2 measure reserves. >>
First off, I don't "scream", I capitalize for emphasis. Secondly, why ask me about such an irrelevant topic? You first brought up the topic of "reserves" with your comment of:
"You do understand that this 'ton of cash' you speak of is being held by banks in the form of reserves"
or did you not write that? Tough to tell with your silly need to edit so many of your nonsensical postings. >>
Just to recap:
1) You said that people are flush with cash, owing to large returns from equities.
2) I asked you for some evidence for this influx of cash into the economy, and asked if you were going to direct me to M1, or M2, or some other measure for money, to back up this claim.
3) You said that you were talking about individuals, and not reserves, which would imply that M1 or M2 are irrelevant because they measure reserves.
That, I think, is a fairly faithful accounting of the discussion to date. But no matter. I'm actually willing to have this talk, but before I get any deeper into this I'll ask you to answer the questions I posed above.
1) People have been warning that runaway inflation is just around the corner ever since QE2, and yet is hasn't happened- and, as evidenced the price of the T10 year, the market isn't expecting runaway inflation anytime soon. Why do you think this is?
2) What is a liquidity trap? >>
The answer to question 1 is very easy...a man with a printing press is buying $85B in treasuries/mtgs a month manipulating the price. You cannot use the T10 year as a guide as it is not a free market.
Reality #1: History shows that high levels of debt and deficit spending eventually lead to inflation
US inflation was 1% in 1915. Within just two years, it soared to 17%. It happened because the Treasury spent like crazy on the war, creating money to pay for it…
In 1945, the official inflation rate was 2%; it accelerated to 14% in 24 months. Inflation registered 3.2% in 1972 and hit 11% by 1974.
It's clear that the arrival of inflation can be sudden, and that prices can quickly spiral out of control. Given the profligate amount of money being printed by many countries around the globe, we could easily become victim to rapidly rising inflation. If we matched the historical increases, our CPI would register 11%, 15%, and 19% respectively, by February 2014.
Regardless of the timing, though, their is a clear warning from history: expecting the CPI to remain low indefinitely is a dangerous assumption.
<< <i>Just to be clear, signs of real and material inflation are everywhere and have been for awhile. I'm referring to the kind of inflation spiral that most of us have never experienced in our lifetimes. >>
And what are these signs of real and material inflation?
<< <i>
<< <i>Just to be clear, signs of real and material inflation are everywhere and have been for awhile. I'm referring to the kind of inflation spiral that most of us have never experienced in our lifetimes. >>
And what are these signs of real and material inflation? >>
Go to the grocery store or fill up your tank.
http://http://www.ebay.com/itm/RARE-1989-Upper-Deck-Ken-Griffey-Jr-Star-Rookie-1-PSA-10-/230955823512?pt=US_Baseball&hash=item35c60a3198
Was starting to wonder if hyperinflation was here when I saw the price on this one.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Just to be clear, signs of real and material inflation are everywhere and have been for awhile. I'm referring to the kind of inflation spiral that most of us have never experienced in our lifetimes. >>
And what are these signs of real and material inflation? >>
Go to the grocery store or fill up your tank. >>
We clearly have very different ideas about how inflation ought to be measured.
Since food and energy are excluded from the core the only component that is seeing large increases that comes to mind is rents and that is a function of the housing debacle.
There is no way one can say that cards in general in are in a bubble but there are probably pockets that are in one.
The extremely low interest rate policy of the FED is certainly driving investment dollars into collectibles. There is no disputing that.
This environment helps fuel high demand cards and keep afloat cards that are stuck in a long term trading range. If rates go up low end cards will have trouble at some point as the cost to carry them vs. risk free fixed rate investments will become less appealing in theory. In practice we will see how this plays out.
I realize debating the future of the hobby can be fun and certainly there are many strong theories but the bottom line is it is extremely hard to predict the long term future of this hobby as there are so many genres of cards that have their own supply and demand relationships that influence their final selling prices.
<< <i>
<< <i>I spent a little over $4000 for that same Molitor 1 year ago in the DMitri Young auction and very clearly remember a few heckles from board members about the price I paid. And of course there were many other cards sold in that auction that had experts from the forum shaking their heads saying they couldn't possibly hold their value. I wonder what all those same cards would go for right now. >>
For the Molly that you spent $4,569.60 on, in the right white border next to U.L. Washington there's a long vertical scratch, that's just on the holder right?
There's also a dot dead center to the top on the card and two dots to the left of Trammell. My guess is those issues kept the card price a bit down compared to the one that sold recently on ebay, which is the finest example I've ever seen. Yours has fantastic centering, sharp corners, and great coloring ... a solid ten IMO but I think the ebay one that sold is a better example.
IMO, it's just too easy to shill auctions these days so I don't participate in big dollar ones, either on or offbay.
As for the bubble, I think it's the unlimited unopened bubble that's burst. The notion that there is an endless supply of material out there. There simply isn't, it's dried up and now people are starting to pay crazy amounts for material ... sometimes even from sketchy sources.
This will carryover into the graded card market since people simply won't have as many premium examples to send in for grading. >>
This reply is so over the top, it crossed my mind that you were kidding around, then I remembered that you were one of the more vocal ones about me overpaying for that card and others overpaying in that same auction, but after a year here, I think I understand the way you roll a little more...
The case itself has more than a few scratches...none on the card. There is the one print dot on the top center and another to the right of Molitor in the yellow. I really can't see any other flaws. No idea what 2 print dots to the left of trammell you're talking about.
Looking at the one on eBay, it definitely has the oh so common printing smudge. It's very slight, but it's there in between the 2 "O's" in Rookie and also the "O" in shortstops. The most important thing to me if I were to buy that card was NO SMUDGE, as it's an almost legendary smudge on 99% of them, the eBay one included.
I also see a white print dot under the "A" in Royals and a dash on the yellow border to the left of Klutts. I could probably find a few more "flaws" similar to the ones you pointed to on mine, but what's the point? Is that one a beautiful 10 absolutely worthy of the grade? For sure. Definitely in the top 2 I've ever seen (And if anyone here bought it I don't want to come off as an ass or of being negative about it, it's a truly amazing card) I just feel I should respond. It's also worth noting that the scan from the SCP auction is phenomenal and shows every little detail, and the eBay one does not.
Based on all that, I'm surprised to see you say the eBay one is the nicest one you've ever seen, but then again I'm not. I have a feeling if the person that bought that one was a regular member here you'd have a different opinion on that one too....
TheClockworkAngelCollection
<< <i>
<< <i>I think we are in a bubble in almost all asset classes, sports cards being one of them. There's a TON of cash out there looking for a home and it's finding its way into everything. IMO, one of two macroeconomic events will occur:
1) This Fed policy of ours will lead to a fairly large recession (possible mild depression) within the next 5 years which will cause a significant pullback in the prices of stocks, real estate and most all collectibles.
2) It will lead to runaway inflation which causes price spikes in everything, though cards benefiting not anywhere near as much as traditional asset classes. On a nominal basis, that might be very good, but in real terms, not remotely impressive. >>
You do understand that this 'ton of cash' you speak of is being held by banks in the form of reserves, correct? When I read posts like this it makes me suspect that people don't really understand what it is the creates inflationary pressure on a currency.
Here's a short piece that should help clear up some of the misconceptions I've seen on this board regarding the relationship between QE and inflation. It's not dead-on, but it gives you a general idea of what's actually going on. >>
Did you really just cite a Keynesian economist whose idea of a rebuttal involves shouting down the other side?
Vintage prices are gettin outta hand!
I need better prices to fill my want list!!!
As long as the economy continues to improve and as long as thirty-something and forty-somethings have spare money to invest or play with the market for the very best high end cards and unopened should continue to rise
TheClockworkAngelCollection
TheClockworkAngelCollection