Meltdown Timetable
jmski52
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I've been a student of hard money economics for a very long time. I remember in the 1970's when I bought my first 100 Onzas and was glad to be hedging against an uncertain future and also against the US Strategic Reserve silver being sold off.
I remember the precious metals spike in 1979-1980 and the recession and layoffs of 1981, and the 500 point drop in the Dow one day in late 1987. I remember watching Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser on Sunday mornings for decades. The Crisis in 2008 was a total vindication of everything I've learned, and it still continues (in my opinion).
I've always had a pretty good sense about when to accumulate metals and I've been slow to sell them off even after a drop. My "spidey sense" has been on target since 1998 and I still feel pretty strong about a positive outlook for physical metals.
Here's my question. We've been hedging against a financial meltdown for a long time, and that certainly doesn't mean that one isn't "on the way". The numbers don't lie. When do you think that the next financial meltdown is going to happen?
(I realize that some folks will pooh-pooh the question. If so, I understand your reasons for doing so and I don't take it personally.
)
I remember the precious metals spike in 1979-1980 and the recession and layoffs of 1981, and the 500 point drop in the Dow one day in late 1987. I remember watching Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser on Sunday mornings for decades. The Crisis in 2008 was a total vindication of everything I've learned, and it still continues (in my opinion).
I've always had a pretty good sense about when to accumulate metals and I've been slow to sell them off even after a drop. My "spidey sense" has been on target since 1998 and I still feel pretty strong about a positive outlook for physical metals.
Here's my question. We've been hedging against a financial meltdown for a long time, and that certainly doesn't mean that one isn't "on the way". The numbers don't lie. When do you think that the next financial meltdown is going to happen?
(I realize that some folks will pooh-pooh the question. If so, I understand your reasons for doing so and I don't take it personally.
) Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
0
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I think we'll have a stumble when;
Someone accidentally kicks out one of the foundation pillars and starts a small chain reaction. The government rushes in to cover it secretively or then publicly as it stretches the superficial coverage elastic band to its breaking point.
Or even more likely, when the big boys decide its harvest time in the market (which could be anytime one of them gets too hungry and kicks off the Dow run down to 8000 - anytime I expect).
Those conditions are more likely. Most of the big boys realize now too, that to totally break the system is not in their advantage either, as they stop gaining in an extended crash or meltdown too. They will want the system (and us pawns) to be able to recover to start it all over again. The government will want to keep the economic system going to confiscate their share of each pot (taxes). Nobody wants the game to end, so unlike chess, they need to keep the pawns moving about, not off the board.
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I remember becoming more "aware" when the 500 pt drop hit, even though I didn't understand it at the time. But over the years have seen multiple+ cycles up and down which is a good predictor. I know now why Bush Jr. said don't stop spending and keep the economy going and continue to live your lives as normal.
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You're not supposed to get that far ahead (unless you're savvy enough to read behind the lines).
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
FWIW, I think that the first card to fall will be outside of the US. Something that we cant manipulate.
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I still plan on precious metals being the best hedge, among the various hedges available.
I knew it would happen.
With the country at about 27% unemployment, suffering "emergency taxes" and pension reductions, the populace is in the streets and they aren't happy. The first of the bailout payments from the IMF and Eurozone monies was given to them at the end of last year. Though these payments are from the IMF, the US and all the major banks have money in the pie. The banks are happy because they have the Greeks on the hook for big money for a long time but the Greeks are not happy.
Now the news is that the Greeks will have no more austerity with a good number of them suggesting that the banks should go pound sand. The banks would take a hit, bad for stockholders/managers, if the Greeks walk away. The Greek gov seems to be tiring of the austerity but even more tired that everyone is not happy. These are Greeks, they like to be happy.
Then we have Italy, sucking air, going down for the count. IMF bailout could happen but they are in no mood for any austerity like they see the Greeks, experiencing.
This will probably take a few months to play out and it will have considerable effect on Europe and likely a considerable impact on the US. This may be the first of the dominoes to fall. Maybe The Bernak has some magic for this.
Just my take on it.
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
<< <i>All I keep hearing over & over is "we will do WHATEVER necessary to avoid a crisis/meltdown. So I take from that the talking heads already know it's unfixable
Maybe they should just stock up on lots of ammo.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>All I keep hearing over & over is "we will do WHATEVER necessary to avoid a crisis/meltdown. So I take from that the talking heads already know it's unfixable
Maybe they should just stock up on lots of ammo. >>
Locals are went to Walmart yesterday. the gun girl in sporting goods says I got folks buying cases of ammo b4 I take it off the stock cart. I ain't see a 22lr box there since January.
Pm's will take a sizeable hit
March 22, 2013
This will begin the downturn, it probably won't be a catastrophic event, but rather a gradual downward cycle.
The cycle will intensify in January 2014 because of New healthcare taxes.
Keep stacking
<< <i>Then cohodk starts to sound like derryb! (evil grin) >>
Someday I will.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."
Many of our economic programs and policies in the States and Western Europe (Japan too) were created with very good intentions. It is human to want to help others. Unfortunately these programs can metastasize into something very different than what was originally intended and the growing costs, increased population, longer life, and lack of revenue to keep the programs viable will lead to economic pain. Add the sense of entitlement many have and a feeling that they deserve a free lunch (low or no taxes paid) and you find yourself in the situation we are now in.
How does this relate to the OPs question? Give me a few minutes. While Wall Street is signing "Happy Days are Here Again," the real or true picture of our economy is far from happy days. True unemployment, under-employment, and those who have simply given up is staggering. For many, the 99 weeks of unemployment will be running out over the upcoming months. Those who are under-employed are robbing their savings and 401ks to supplement the income coming in or living off their credit cards. Many who are employed, remain nervous about their jobs and are being cautious with their money. Small businesses are not making large purchases and are not hiring as they did in past recoveries. It is no wonder why our GDP remains in a multi-year slump. Consumers do not have enough to spend. Is this the trigger to the meltdown?
Over the next year, the new health care plan will be implemented and the real cost to businesses and individuals will be felt. Again, it is human nature to want to help those in need but there is a cost to that. That money has to come from somewhere. Whether it comes from the employer or the individual who is lucky to have a paying job, it will have to be paid. And these payments, taxes, fees, or whatever you want to call them will come at the worst time. An already struggling economy will see less consumer spending and more lay-offs due to the health care plan. Is this the trigger to the meltdown?
While this all goes on, our politicians do not have the nerve or intelligence to come up with plans to cut spending and fix those programs that eat up all the tax revenue that is collected leaving us with growing trillion dollar annual deficits. Instead, they talk about a few hundred billion dollars in savings over 10 years when they should be talking about hundreds of billions in savings each and every year. With the passing of each month, the national debt continues to increase. Servicing the debt alone will eat up more than 10% of what is collected in taxes this year and that percentage will continue to grow with time. Is this the trigger to the meltdown?
Europe. Do I need to say more? Countries possibly going bankrupt. Banks possibly going bankrupt. The EURO itself being questioned? People and politicians not wanting to do what is painfully necessary to save themselves. Is this the trigger to the meltdown?
Our stock market is enjoying new highs but it will not take much to scare investors who remember 2008 all too well. The FED has helped to inflate the stock market with its low interest policies and pumping money into the economy. Instead of the money finding its way to help the economy, it seems to have found a home in the stock market. When something is artificially inflated, it can easily burst and burst quickly. When markets are climbing higher and higher, those who have portfolios or retirement savings enjoy a psychological high. In 2008, we all saw the psychologic devastation a crashing market causes plus the real devastation when both large and small companies lay off more workers. If it happens again will the FED have any tricks left? Will our politicians be able to give out tax credits on major purchases to consumers when tax revenue collections crater again? Will they be able to increase unemployment benefits even further? Is this the trigger to the meltdown?
Honestly, I do not know what the trigger will be, It could be any of the above or a combination of them. My point to all of this is once you go too far towards socialism and take away incentive to do things for yourself, over tax, over promise, and to artificially create an economic outcome, you will eventually pull almost everyone under. Only those who understand the possible outcomes and protect themselves, will be in a much better position to weather any type of meltdown.
As I believe, any of the above can happen over the next 12 to 18 months, I am preparing for that timeframe. If I am wrong and I hope I am, my precautions will have been an insurance policy. Thanks OP for asking a timely question and making us all think.
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<< <i>...Here's my question. We've been hedging against a financial meltdown for a long time, and that certainly doesn't mean that one isn't "on the way". The numbers don't lie. When do you think that the next financial meltdown is going to happen?
>>
I like your lifeline tale of events. I was a senior in college studying business management when the 508 point Dow drop hit. It's easy to forget that was a 20% plus drop in one day!
A large sell-off equities, taking the major averages down 20% or more, will likely occur during in the next 12-18 months. More of a significant correction, this will not be a financial meltdown a la 2008. Not while we're committed to 0% interest rates, $1 trillion/annually in USD creation, and $2 trillion/annually in local, state, federal deficit spending. Non-private money flows will keep another financial meltdown at bay for several years at least.
I would guess we're looking 6 to 8 years out. Maybe even 10 years before the piper has to be paid.
Fast forward, many of us feel that the information we can see, hear and read about each day tells us that things are not O.K., that another shoe is going to drop, and we seek to know when.
The problem to knowing when, I think, is that the heavy handed Government involvement distorts reality, all the way to the point where it becomes nearly impossible to predict.
I relate the (true) economy (if it had been left unmolested by the Fed) to that of a comatose patient who has suffered irreparable brain damage. If the patient had been left to meet its own destiny, the patient would have died. But no, that wasn't an option, instead Dr. Fed came in and, for the benefit of the patient mind you, supplied the brain dead comatose body with a feeding tube and artificial respiration. How long can the patient stay in that state? Quite simply, for as long as the Doctor orders. When the Doctor does decide, or the family begs for mercy (aka the people), and the plug is finally pulled, only then will the patient die. Unfortunately, that's also when the real grieving will begin.
JMHO - Guess I'm just a bit of a Debbie Downer
JC
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they were at the previous market tops in 2000 and 2007. The "crowd" has been mostly negative since the market lows
4 years ago.
The economy is improving and with intermittent corrections the stock market will go higher.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Instead, the answers lie within. As long as there's not a major catastrophe to the Earth's surface like an asteroid impact or nuclear exchange, Everyone will not "melt down" financially nor bloat up obesely at the same rate. A person's probability of success in any environment is determined by the person's efforts to live right by themselves and those close to them
Like the various other SHTF threads, let's revisit this one annually or more and conclude, "Today is not the Big Disaster Day, but it is happening slowly day by day... forever, that's evolution"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
It’s Going To End Badly
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<< <i>Here is an article I read this morning which is on topic:
It’s Going To End Badly >>
Excerpt: Our debt is nearing $17T, growing at 12% per year. Our economy is not growing at 12% per year.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>Funny how at this time of year when the golf courses will be opening soon, I don't think at all about these things. >>
Well for me it doesn't seem to really matter whether we are talking about the economy or my golf game, I know either way that they will both most certainly end badly.
Tried several times, never could get my swing down. When I asked for advice from the pro at a golf store, he said his best advice to me would be "to quit playing golf".
Really, was I that bad.
JC
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<< <i>Individuals who are not physically or financially "fit" should not try to shift blame to evil junk food corporations, portion size of sugary and starchy foods, for their weight or cardiovascular health, nor the government, or "the economy" for the status of their net worth and changes to their net worth. >>
So, all of those retirees out their living on fixed income should be blaming exactly who for the near zero interest they get as a reward for saving all of their lives? Right, it's their own fault, they should have known better than to try to prepare for the future. And who should they blame for their near zero cost of living allowances that are based on fictitous CPI data while their real cost of living is accelerating? Right, it's there own fault, for participating in a forced social security system.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>DE59
<< <i>Funny how at this time of year when the golf courses will be opening soon, I don't think at all about these things. >>
Well for me it doesn't seem to really matter whether we are talking about the economy or my golf game, I know either way that they will both most certainly end badly.
Tried several times, never could get my swing down. When I asked for advice from the pro at a golf store, he said his best advice to me would be "to quit playing golf".
Really, was I that bad.
JC >>
Haha, in four months I'm moving to a complex that has an Ernie Els golf course. I don't golf. When asked why I don't, I say "I'm not old enough." I've used that line for 35 years.
<< <i>
<< <i>Individuals who are not physically or financially "fit" should not try to shift blame to evil junk food corporations, portion size of sugary and starchy foods, for their weight or cardiovascular health, nor the government, or "the economy" for the status of their net worth and changes to their net worth. >>
So, all of those retirees out their living on fixed income should be blaming exactly who for the near zero interest they get as a reward for saving all of their lives? Right, it's their own fault, they should have known better than to try to prepare for the future. And who should they blame for their near zero cost of living allowances that are based on fictitous CPI data while their real cost of living is accelerating? Right, it's there own fault, for participating in a forced social security system. >>
So they deserve the gov't they voted for or they can blame the tyranny that doesn't represent or maybe it's a combination of the two.
Funny how at this time of year when the golf courses will be opening soon, I don't think at all about these things.
You guys are making way too much sense.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Individuals who are not physically or financially "fit" should not try to shift blame to evil junk food corporations, portion size of sugary and starchy foods, for their weight or cardiovascular health, nor the government, or "the economy" for the status of their net worth and changes to their net worth. >>
So, all of those retirees out their living on fixed income should be blaming exactly who for the near zero interest they get as a reward for saving all of their lives? Right, it's their own fault, they should have known better than to try to prepare for the future. And who should they blame for their near zero cost of living allowances that are based on fictitous CPI data while their real cost of living is accelerating? Right, it's there own fault, for participating in a forced social security system. >>
Its our doctors and nurses and medical researchers who are at fault. They are the ones who screwed up the actuarial tables.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
How long they have to work, and how far above the subsistence level they get to live during their retirement decades, will be determined by their actions and decisions during their working lifetimes, not by government policies. In fact, this is true of everyone, isn't it? Of course, it's human nature to blame others when a person's personal situation "melts down", isn't it?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>It's been suggested that the first person to live to 150 years has probably already been born, and that the average lifespan of first-world people born in the 2000s who take care of themselves reasonably well, is likely to be over 100 years.
How long they have to work, and how far above the subsistence level they get to live during their retirement decades, will be determined by their actions and decisions during their working lifetimes, not by government policies. In fact, this is true of everyone, isn't it? Of course, it's human nature to blame others when a person's personal situation "melts down", isn't it? >>
First?
Noah - 500+
Abraham - 175-ish
Average Egyptian - 40
Middle Ages - 35
England 1800's - 40
UK today - 77
So the trend is our friend.
just the effort of the entire population just to feed our growing numbers. When progress came faster the
exploding population would still require the vast majority to do physical work to keep up with the increasing
demand. But everything changed with technological advancements that made the economy more efficient
with the computer and less need for physical labor due to the decreasing costs of complex machinery. This
has allowed the kleptocracy we think of as wall street or the military/ industrial complex to put the physical
burden on "illegal aliens" and a few Americans working for minimum wage. They are doing their best to de-
stroy the ability of anyone to lead a better life by the result of his hands. Companies are shut down and the
work moved to China where workers earn peanuts. The kleptocracy and their hand maidens in Congress ac-
tually benefit from the growing armies of illiterate, uneducated, and poor Americans who are not needed for
physical work anyway as they serve to maintain the status quo of politics.
The economy is so exceedingly inefficient the central planners believe that any economic crisis can easily be
averted by simply allowing productivity to increase marginally. Meanwhile though they require increasing con-
trol of a population distracted by politics and the bread and circuses that keep the poor in line. We appear to
be heading into the mother of all dark ages. The human spirit will be managed and rights only relevant where
actions aren't proscribed or prescribed; in other words, quite rarely. It will eventually be a world where most
of the population lives on a stripend granted by the government and leadership is inherited.
So long as they don't allow a meltdown (as we so richly deserve) there will be no way to avert the the dark
ages. Of course we'll always be on the razor's edge caused by the propensity of people to act in unison and
to suddenly come to realize that these debts will never be repaid. Until the economy is fully in the hands of
the central planners this will be a danger.
I'm expecting several years of apparent growth and improvement in most peoples' lives as the stock market
is driven higher and then another painful but not disastrous drop as the bankers squeeze more money out of
the economy.
<< <i>
<< <i>It's been suggested that the first person to live to 150 years has probably already been born, and that the average lifespan of first-world people born in the 2000s who take care of themselves reasonably well, is likely to be over 100 years.
How long they have to work, and how far above the subsistence level they get to live during their retirement decades, will be determined by their actions and decisions during their working lifetimes, not by government policies. In fact, this is true of everyone, isn't it? Of course, it's human nature to blame others when a person's personal situation "melts down", isn't it? >>
First?
Noah - 500+
Abraham - 175-ish
Average Egyptian - 40
Middle Ages - 35
England 1800's - 40
UK today - 77
So the trend is our friend.
LoL, good one. see also, Methusela
Notice the super beings always have a conehead hat? Wizards, Witches, the Pope, etc? They even put a pointy hat on the dunce to try to emulate the superbeings who descended on chariots of fire with great thunder and magic
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Notice the super beings always have a conehead hat? Wizards, Witches, the Pope, etc? They even put a pointy hat on the dunce to try to emulate the superbeings who descended on chariots of fire with great thunder and magic >>
Descending on fire with thunder and magic sounds to me like a space ship landing. Certainly describes the way they take off. Conehead = aliens?
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<< <i>Here is an article I read this morning which is on topic: It’s Going To End Badly >>
Here is my takeaway: The Senate has not passed a budget in several years. Apparently there is no need for a budget. You know the old saying, “We must have money left – there are still checks in the checkbook.”
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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey