Home Trading Cards & Memorabilia Forum

High-end case break analysis

I figured I'd analyze how people getting box/case breaks by team would have done on a recent high-end break - Panini QC broke a box of its own National Treasures BB and posted all the cards.

1 case broken, 4 boxes per case, 8 cards per box. All cards are hits.
Boxes can be bought for $1500 or less, break originators are charging $60 or so a slot for random slot breaks.

broken case with pictures

30 teams
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves: Andrelton Simmons auto #/99
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox: Speaker bat #/99, Ellsbury jersey (green, so unsure what it's from) booklet #/99
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox: Addison Reed auto #/99
Cincinnati Reds: Votto jersey #/99
Cleveland Indians: Early Wynn jersey #/25, Lajoie bat booklet #/5, Zach McAllister auto manupatch #/99
Colorado Rockies
Detroit Tigers: Greenberg bat #/99, Verlander button #/6
Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers: Kemp jersey #/99, Furillo bat #/99, Lasorda jersey #/99, Willie Keeler bat #/99
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers: Yovani Gallardo auto (3 color) patch #/25, Tyler Thornburg auto jersey #/99
Minnesota Twins: Chris Parmelee auto manupatch #/99, Liam Hendriks auto (3 color) patch #/99
New York Mets: Gooden auto jersey #/49
New York Yankees: Teixeira (2 color) patch #/25
Oakland A's: Al Simmons bat #/99
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates: Mazeroski (on-card) auto #/25, Paul Waner bat #/99, Arky Vaughan bat/Joe Cronin jersey #/25***
St. Louis Cardinals: Frankie Frisch cut signature bat booklet 1/1, Billy Southworth jersey #/10, Berkman jersey (green, so unsure what it's from) #/99
San Diego Padres: Yasmani Grandal auto (3 color) patch #/99
San Francisco Giants: McCovey jersey #/99
Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero auto jersey #/99
Tampa Bay Rays: Longoria jersey booklet (1 color) #/99
Texas Rangers: Josh Hamilton auto (4 color) patch #/10
Toronto Blue Jays
Washington Nationals

*** I assigned this to Pittsburgh rather than Boston because Vaughan is on the left. Some box breaks randomize multi-team hits.

11 of the 30 teams got absolutely nothing. Of the other 19, someone who had the Cardinals, Indians, or Tigers would have done very well. Whoever had the Dodgers or Pirates should make good money, and the Braves and Red Sox spots might well make money. Whoever had the Rangers would at least have a sweet and very desirable card that they might be happy to have gotten for their PC (though I think it would sell for less than $60 on ebay). Of the remaining 11 teams, a few might be happy if their random team was a favorite team or they hit a favorite player (e.g., Brewers with 2 autos, Gooden, Longoria), but most would not be pleased.

We're talking about likely 8 out of 30 teams with positive ROI or at least a worthwhile hit.

Not good numbers overall.

Nick
image
Reap the whirlwind.

Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.

Comments

  • Bosox1976Bosox1976 Posts: 8,528 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Good stuff, Nick -- thanks.
    Mike
    Bosox1976
  • 08HALA2008HALA20 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭


    Good job on that insight . Box breakers are making a killing.

    I have a single box coming at $300. I believe these were about $1100 a case direct which most of the box breakers paid.

    Joe









  • NickMNickM Posts: 4,896 ✭✭✭
    I decided to analyze the breaks Brad Ziegler (yes, the Diamondbacks pitcher) was doing on these for a case break outfit, which were posted on YouTube, after hearing that they were monster breaks.

    Break 1 (video))

    30 teams
    Arizona Diamondbacks: Wade Miley jersey #/99
    Atlanta Braves: Andrelton Simmons auto manupatch #/99, Bourn jersey #/99, Chipper Jones auto jersey #/10
    Baltimore Orioles: Ripken laundry tag #/8, Palmer jersey #/49
    Boston Red Sox: Middlebrooks auto jersey #/99
    Chicago Cubs: Brett Jackson auto jersey #/49
    Chicago White Sox: Frank Thomas auto (3 color) patch #/25
    Cincinnati Reds
    Cleveland Indians: Zach McAllister auto jersey #/99
    Colorado Rockies
    Detroit Tigers: Harry Heilmann bat booklet #/10, Kuenn bat #/99, Heilmann bat #/99, Cobb bat #/99
    Houston Astros
    Kansas City Royals
    Los Angeles Angels: Trout auto button #1/6
    Los Angeles Dodgers: Tim Federowicz auto jersey #/99
    Miami Marlins
    Milwaukee Brewers: Yount jersey #/25
    Minnesota Twins
    New York Mets
    New York Yankees: David Phelps auto patch #/99, David Phelps auto patch #/25
    Oakland A's
    Philadelphia Phillies: Carlton auto #25/25, Chuck Klein bat #/99
    Pittsburgh Pirates: Clemente (3 color) patch #10/10, Lloyd Waner bat #/99
    St. Louis Cardinals: Medwick jersey #/25, Ozzie Smith jersey #/99
    San Diego Padres
    San Francisco Giants: Hunter Pence jersey booklet #/99 (2 of them), Cepeda cut signature jersey booklet #/5
    Seattle Mariners
    Tampa Bay Rays: Chris Archer auto manupatch #/99
    Texas Rangers: Kinsler jersey #/99, Ivan Rodriguez jersey #/99
    Toronto Blue Jays
    Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman bat #/99

    Once again, 11 of 30 teams got nothing. 6 teams hit it big - Braves, Orioles, Tigers, Angels, Pirates, and Giants. Whoever had the Cardinals and Phillies ought to make their money back - and whoever had the Yankees or Red Sox might as well, if Yankee fans go crazy for Phelps or Middlebrooks turns out to be the real deal. The White Sox came out like the Rangers did in Panini's QC break - it's a sweet PC card even if it's not something you could make all your $ back on. 8 more teams came back with nowhere near even value in return. At best, we're looking at 11 good slots of the 30.

    Break 3 [I can't find video from break 2] (video)

    30 teams
    Arizona Diamondbacks:
    Atlanta Braves
    Baltimore Orioles: Adam Jones auto jersey #/49, Willie Keeler bat #/99 [his card was from a Baltimore Orioles franchise that folded in 1899, so he can't really be assigned anywhere else]
    Boston Red Sox: Ted Williams jersey #/99, Ellsbury jersey (green, so unsure what it's from) booklet #/99
    Chicago Cubs
    Chicago White Sox: Aparicio jersey #/49
    Cincinnati Reds: Rose auto bat booklet redemption #/?
    Cleveland Indians: Nick Hagadone auto #/99
    Colorado Rockies: Josh Rutledge auto #/99
    Detroit Tigers: Kaline auto #/25?
    Houston Astros
    Kansas City Royals
    Los Angeles Angels
    Los Angeles Dodgers: Furillo bat #/49, Durocher jersey #/99
    Miami Marlins
    Milwaukee Brewers: Yount jersey #/25, Michael Fiers button #/6
    Minnesota Twins: Goslin bat #/99 (2 of them), Oliva auto jersey #/49
    New York Mets: Matt Harvey auto jersey #/99
    New York Yankees: Dellin Betances auto (2 color) patch #/25, DiMaggio jersey #/49
    Oakland A's
    Philadelphia Phillies: Carlton jersey #/99, Rollins jersey booklet #/99, Halladay (2 color, possibly part of team name) patch booklet #/10
    Pittsburgh Pirates: Lloyd Waner bat #/99
    St. Louis Cardinals
    San Diego Padres: Gwynn jersey #/99
    San Francisco Giants
    Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez (4 color) patch #/25
    Tampa Bay Rays
    Texas Rangers: Beltre jersey #/99, Martin Perez auto jersey #/99, Kinsler jersey #/99
    Toronto Blue Jays: Anthony Gose auto manupatch #/99, Adeiny Hechevarria auto manupatch #/99
    Washington Nationals: Steve Lombardozzi auto #/25

    It was unclear which team 1 card would assign to:
    Randy Johnson auto jersey booklet redemption #/?

    Because I have to assign him somewhere, I'll call Johnson a Diamondback on the card.
    This leaves 10 of 30 teams with nothing. Of the others, whoever had the Red Sox, Twins, Brewers, Yankees, and Phillies should make good money, with the Rangers, Blue Jays, Reds, and Orioles at least being in the range of making their money back and the Diamondbacks (being like the Rangers [Hamilton] and White Sox [Thomas] from boxes I discussed earlier - even if it's not full recoupment, it's a really nice card for a PC. The Tigers and Mariners get cards that are strong PC material as well, though we're probably talking $30-$40 cards at most. The other 8 teams don't even come close to even value. At best, we're talking about 12 good slots of the 30.

    Break 4 (video)

    30 teams
    Arizona Diamondbacks
    Atlanta Braves: Andrelton Simmons auto #/25, Bourn jersey #/99
    Baltimore Orioles
    Boston Red Sox: Yaz bat #/99, Ellsbury jersey #/99
    Chicago Cubs: Andre Dawson auto #/25, Josh Vitters auto manupatch #/99
    Chicago White Sox: Eddie Stanky jersey #/99**
    Cincinnati Reds
    Cleveland Indians
    Colorado Rockies: Josh Rutledge auto manupatch #/99, Josh Rutledge auto #/99, Helton cut signature jersey booklet #/5
    Detroit Tigers: Alex Avila auto (4 color) patch #/25, Greenberg bat #/99
    Houston Astros
    Kansas City Royals
    Los Angeles Angels
    Los Angeles Dodgers: Tim Federowicz auto (majestic logo) patch 1/1, Reese jersey #/99
    Miami Marlins
    Milwaukee Brewers
    Minnesota Twins: Liam Hendriks auto (3 color) patch #/99
    New York Mets: David Wright auto bat #/10
    New York Yankees: Miller Huggins bat #/99, Teixeira jersey booklet #/99, Dickey jersey #/25, Jeter jersey booklet #/99, Reggie Jackson jersey #/99
    Oakland A's
    Philadelphia Phillies
    Pittsburgh Pirates: Starling Marte auto manupatch #/99
    St. Louis Cardinals: Hornsby jersey #/25, Berkman jersey (green, so unsure what it's from) booklet #/99, Joe Medwick jersey/Mel Ott bat/Paul Waner bat #/25*
    San Diego Padres
    San Francisco Giants: Posey jersey #/99, Eric Surkamp auto jersey #/99, Lincecum (majestic logo) patch #7/7, George Kelly bat #/99
    Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez auto laundry tag redemption #/6
    Tampa Bay Rays
    Texas Rangers: Neftali Feliz auto jersey #/10, Ivan Rodriguez jersey #/99
    Toronto Blue Jays
    Washington Nationals

    *I assigned the triple GU card to the leftmost player rather than dealing with random assignment
    **Stanky played with the Cubs and managed the White Sox. Panini can't use team names, and the breaker assumed Cubs. I think differently - the Cubs were a minor part of his career.

    15 of 30 teams got nothing here! Whoever had the Yankees did ridiculously well. Whoever had the Braves, Rockies, Mariners, Giants, or Cardinals should also turn a profit, and whoever had the Rangers, Tigers, or Dodgers may profit as well (though I can imagine someone keeping the Avila, Feliz, or Federowicz for a PC rather than risk an unfavorable ebay outcome). Whoever had the Mets is in the same position as the Hamilton/Thomas/Johnson slots from other breaks - a sweet PC card even if it wouldn't recoup the buy-in price on ebay. The Cubs got a card that's strong PC material, though I don't think we're talking more than $40 ebay value. The holders of the other 4 slots would be quite unhappy. At absolute best, we're talking 11 good slots of the 30.

    This is 4 breaks, involving multiple sources. We're looking at 2/3 or more of each break losing money, with as many people getting absolutely nothing as having a reasonable shot of making money.

    Nick
    image
    Reap the whirlwind.

    Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
  • robert67robert67 Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭✭
  • 1980scollector1980scollector Posts: 2,036 ✭✭✭
    This is great information. Thanks Nick.
    ** Working on the following sets-2013 Spectra Football Hall of Fame 50th Anniversary Autograph set, 2015 Spectra Football Illustrious Legends Autograph set, 2014-15 Hall of Fame Heroes autograph set. **
  • PorkinsPorkins Posts: 604 ✭✭✭
    Nice. Thanks for this.
  • P.T. BARNUM was exactly right
  • dtkk49adtkk49a Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭
    Hey, a lot of people who participate in the group BBCE rips come up empty too. They buy a bunch of 80's wax in the hope of pulling a vintage RC and wind up getting shut out. What makes that different than these breaks???
    Follow me - Cards_and_Coins on Instagram



    They call me "Pack the Ripper"
  • so how much would the person running the break actually profit?
  • NickMNickM Posts: 4,896 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Hey, a lot of people who participate in the group BBCE rips come up empty too. They buy a bunch of 80's wax in the hope of pulling a vintage RC and wind up getting shut out. What makes that different than these breaks??? >>



    Besides the fact that ripping it yourself is a lot more fun than watching someone else rip on video and getting cards in the mail?

    This sort of break is much more suitable to a breakdown on the chances of success. I'm looking at 32 cards, not 540. Grading premiums don't enter into it (nor does guessing the grade). And random team breaks are a lot easier to analyze, because I don't need to compare break returns to 30 different team prices.

    Nick

    image
    Reap the whirlwind.

    Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
Sign In or Register to comment.